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Draft Order: Who to root for in week 17

After the New England win last night, the Bills draft scenarios have changed slightly. I've run all 16,384 possibilities on my computer and have determined that the Bills will have a draft pick between 11th and 14th with a loss today, and between 15th (tied with Minnesota) and 19th with a win.

Here's the breakdown:
For the Bills to have the #11 pick, they need to lose, of course, and have Arizona, Carolina, Denver, Jacksonville, and Kansas City win.
The other 9 games don't matter - except in a complicated scenario: if Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, and Washington all win, the Bills would be tied with Carolina and subject to a coin toss for the 11th pick.

For the Bills to have the #15 pick after a win, it's rather difficult: they need Atlanta, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Fransisco, and Tampa Bay to win. They'll still be tied with the Vikings, so they also need to win the coin toss.

So, what's the most likely scenario? The Bills will probably end up 12 or 13 with a loss; 17 or 18 with a win. I'll update this after the first group of games and in the evening for more details.
Update [2007-12-30 18:30:28 by Krenn]:
With the loss, the Bills are guaranteed to pick in the top 13 - somewhere between 11 and 13, now. It depends on the Cardinals and Broncos; if both teams win, the Bills pick 11th. If they both lose, they pick 13th, and if just one team wins, they pick 12th.

There is also the possibility that they can end up tied with Denver in record and strength of schedule - but after re-reading the NFL tie-breaking procedures, conference tiebreakers do appear to matter, so the head-to-head loss would give the Bills the better selection.

So - let's go Cardinals and Broncos!

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Sweet
Looking forward to the updates, Krenn. Will be upgrading this to the front page after the game.
Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Dec 30, 2007 12:18 PM EST reply actions  

Right now
I think we have the 11th pick if AZ and Denver hold on.  Only NO and Cincy have a weaker SOS for 7-9 teams...
~K

by Kurupt on Dec 30, 2007 5:45 PM EST reply actions  

I really want marv to stay for this years draft,
we could really use his knowledge for the draft for at least one more year.
Do you BILLieve?

by NYTXFAN on Dec 30, 2007 9:44 PM EST reply actions  

I agree to a point
I like Marv and would like him to stay for the draft as well, But I think Modrak is more important.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Dec 31, 2007 11:03 AM EST up reply actions  

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