MNF Tilt Highlights '07 Schedule

At first glance one might use the word "daunting" to describe the Buffalo Bills 2007 schedule released earlier this afternoon.  In fact, based solely on their opponents' 2006 winning percentages, at .539, Buffalo shares the crown with the Oakland Raiders for the toughest schedule in the NFL.  

With the vast turnover and parity the NFL offers, though, winning percentages from previous seasons are hardly statistically significant when trying to predict future success.  With that in mind, what follows below is the Bills 2007 Schedule and my personal observations and comments.

Sunday, Sept. 9, Denver, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 16, at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23, at New England, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 30, New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Monday, Oct. 8, Dallas, 8:30 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 14, Bye.
Sunday, Oct. 21, Baltimore, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 28, at New York Jets, 4:05 p.m.
Sunday, Nov. 4, Cincinnati, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Nov. 11, at Miami, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Nov. 18, New England, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Nov. 25, at Jacksonville, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Dec. 2, at Washington, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Dec. 9, Miami, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Dec. 16, at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Dec. 23, New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Dec. 30, at Philadelphia, 1 p.m.

Initial Observation:

1.    2 of first 3 games are away against two very formidable opponents (Pitt. And NE).
2.    That said, 4 of the first 6 are at home.
3.    First Monday night game in Buffalo in 14 years on October 8 against the Cowboys is pretty exiting.  Better yet, October 8th is Columbus Day, so many will have off of work and school making traveling to the stadium less of a concern.
4.    The Bills play all but one division game in the first 11 weeks of the season.
5.    Miami at Buffalo in December is always nice to see on the schedule!

Taking these initial observations into account I think the most glaring concern for the Bills are the first 6 games:  Denver, at Pitt, at NE, NYJ, Dallas, Bye, Baltimore. Wow!  Although four of these six are at home, none are against so called "push-over" opponents.  If the Bills could look to split these first 6 games, although 3-3 would not be sexy, it may leave them in decent shape for the final 10 weeks of the season.  
Following the initial seven games, the next 5 weeks may be the most important of the season.  3 of those 5 games are against division opponents, with 2 of those being away from the friendly confines of the Ralph.  All 5 games are against AFC opponents, including legitimate playoff contenders the Patriots, Jets, Bengal's, and Jags.  I think it's safe to say the Bill's season may be made or broken in this 5-week period.

The last five weeks, on paper at least, seems to offer the Bills the "best" chance to rack up some wins.  They play at Washington, home against Miami, at Cleveland, followed by home against the Giants and end the season at Philly.  Washington, Miami, Cleveland all have picks in the top 10 of the NFL draft this season and all three have many question marks to answer.  As stated earlier, although previous season results are not great indicators of future success or failures these three teams, as opposed to any others on the Bills schedule seem to have the most concerns entering 2007.  Finally, ending the season against two NFC teams could provide the Bills with a surprising disadvantage come late December.  If the Bills stumble out of the gate, or find the first half of the schedule tougher than expected, the Bills could be scrapping for AFC wins come December (the wildcard tiebreaker that proves pretty significant every December).  Not having the opportunity to get those wins in the last few games of the season may put the Bills at a disadvantage.  It also puts more pressure on the Bills to play better early in the season to avoid that late rush.

In the end, predictions and observations at this time of the year are just that, merely predictions.   With the NFL draft, Mini-camps, June 1st cuts, and training camps ahead  much can happen between now and Opening weekend in early September.  In addition parity in the NFL always creates one or two surprise teams every season that many teams do not expect to be tough opponents in April.  So although it's too early to take too much stock in the NFL schedule right now, not all is lost.  One can definitely start planning their tailgate now!