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Buffalo Bills Positional Previews: DT

More is needed from Tripplett, the prize '06 FA

Note: To view other positional breakdowns, click your desired position. QB, RB, HB, TE, WR, OT, OG/C, DE

Darwin Walker, how Bills fans loathe ye. One of the higher-profile defensive tackles in the league, Walker was supposed to make our defensive tackles good again. Now he's likely talked his way out of town - and left our situation exactly where it was last season. But is that necessarily a bad thing? Other than Walker, Buffalo's front office neglected to add any players of significance to a group that was, for the most part, underwhelming last season. Is that insanity? Or is it confidence in our youngsters?

Positional Goals
Like the team's defensive ends, Buffalo's coaching staff likes to rotate their players at defensive tackle. Without Walker, the team has three players whose skills are fairly complementary that will receive the majority of the playing time. Couple that with the fact that the team likes to use ends Ryan Denney and Anthony Hargrove inside, and you may begin to understand why adding a tackle wasn't Priority One this off-season.

Buffalo seems to be working to temper the responsibilities of their tackles. On run downs, the goal will be to penetrate the backfield and force the opposing back outside of their desired holes. On pass downs, the tackles might not see as much time; their goal then will be to generate as much of a rush up the middle as possible. Again, disruption and penetration are the goals, but we might not see the tackles doing it as much this season.

Personnel
98-Larry Tripplett: Let's face it - Tripplett was a flop last season. His play wasn't necessarily bad, but he wasn't close to the player the Bills need him to be. 33 tackles (second for DTs on the Bills) and 2.5 sacks doesn't cut it - he needs to at least double his production for a truly effective season. A second year in Perry Fewell's scheme should help.

95-Kyle Williams: A pleasant surprise as a fifth-round rookie, Williams was the leading tackler last season amongst defensive tackles (53). Williams does not bring an ounce of pass-rushing presence to the line (0 sacks last year), but his motor is non-stop and he's solid enough against the run. He should hold down a starting job once again.

97-John McCargo: Another "wild card" along the defensive line. McCargo played just five games in his rookie season, and he wasn't very (statistically) effective in those games. But his talent is undeniable - he is the most gifted tackle on the roster, and his first-round status proves it. If he stays healthy, he'll crack the starting lineup at some point - probably ahead of Tripplett.

77-Tim Anderson: Is it bad to call Tim Anderson a "poor man's Kyle Williams"? Well, I'm going to. Nobody wants to see Anderson off this roster more than me, but Darwin Walker is apparently a fan. Anderson never quits, but that's about all he's got going for him. I'm pulling for an unknown to unseat Anderson for this final DT spot.

Rounding it out: Darwin Walker, Jason Jefferson, Corey Mace. Walker's as good as gone, barring a miraculous turn in negotiations. Jefferson doesn't fit the scheme well. Mace is an interesting prospect - he's smart, athletic and a bit of a 'tweener. He could sneak onto this roster, or at the very least the practice squad.

Outlook
Why didn't the coaching staff address this position (other than Walker)? Easy - the players we have are talented, and there's not much pressure on them (other than Tripplett) because of the rotation. It's likely that only one of them will play on pass downs, and Williams will see a lot of action on run downs. While it's not true to say "We Don't Need Darwin", it is true to see "We Can Survive Without Him."

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Totally Agree
Your positional analysis really tells it all -- the Bills are a very promising, young team.  Outside "experts" see the Bills this year only as the same as last year (because the personnel are the same), except for the loss of our 4 big stars, but they don't give value to whether someone is improving or declining -- at virtually every position, our very same starters from last year are on the upward cycle.  I tried to categorize at each position where an existing starter is "improving", the "same", or "declining" -- by that analysis, of the 11 offensive starters, we have all 10 "improving" and 1 the "same" and no "worse"/"declining"; of the 11 defensive starters, I count 7 "improved", 1 "same" (Schobel!), and 3 "worse."  Its so amazing that we have virtually no veterans (even among the back ups) who would be categorized as "aging" or past his prime.

by labill on Jun 25, 2007 1:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Out of curiosity...
...which players did you label as "declining" for the defense? Interesting exercise...
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 25, 2007 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

In defense of McCargo...
The one player who had more of a statistical impact on our Run D last year wasn't TKO, wasn't Schobel, wasn't LFB - it was young John.  Our run d started giving up (can someone check this?) something like 50 ypg on the ground more after his injury in week five.

IF he is healthy and good to go this season - next to Kyle, that's a promising anti-run DT pairing.

And, to reflect to my pre-draft DT obsession - I'd like to see Denney get increased action on the inside on third-and-longs - he isn't as instinctively dominant, by any stretch, as a Carriker, but he does have the tools to be a poor man's Tommie Harris.

Everyone, repeat after me - it's the second year of the system.  It's the second year of the system...

by Dock Ellis on Jun 25, 2007 2:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: with/without McCargo
I'll work on that tonight... I've meant to do it for a while now but it continuously slips my mind. I'll get back to you with those stats hopefully by tomorrow morning.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 25, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

with/without McCargo
I don't really think there's much to gain from analyzing anything statistically for the time McCargo saw for a couple of reasons.  One, we have no idea how many snaps he played and as a rookie we probably can't expect it to be any more than 30-40%.  I really don't remember seeing him play much at all those first handful of games he was healthy.  Two, the time McCargo played just so happened to coincide with the time Spikes missed due to his hammy issues (the NE thru Chicago games). Personally, I think Spikes getting full time snaps was the biggest problem with our run D last year.  And third, of those games we played with McCargo, none were against top 10 rushing offenses.  New England (12th) and Chicago (15th) shredded us to the tune of over 300 total rushing yards between them.

I really don't think it's worth investigating McCargo further.  He had 6 tackles in those 5 games he played...I don't think he was that big of a factor.

~K

by Kurupt on Jun 25, 2007 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Information is power
You make great points, K, as usual - especially the one about Spikes, who was just atrocious against the run last season.

I still think you can make the argument either way. I did end up running the numbers, and there are some interesting results. Very debatable, i.e. very entertaining and interesting. Information is power, and it's something new to talk about.

I think it's a little bit of both regarding the Spikes/McCargo debate, btw. Post up shortly. :)

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by Brian Galliford on Jun 25, 2007 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

DT's
I think your view is a little overly optimistic.  Sure, there is some talent there with McCargo being a 1st rounder and Tripplett as a semi-high priced FA.  However, Tripplett wasn't that effective last year, McCargo is dealing with his foot issues and Kyle Williams isn't more than a rotational guy.  Tim Anderson is a bum.  I'm quite worried about how we'll stop the run with this grouping up front.  I like their ability to penetrate the gaps, but they will get pushed around a lot which worries me.  We don't have big LB's to absorb blocks like in years past.

I also don't think Walker would have done much to improve our porous run D.

~K

by Kurupt on Jun 25, 2007 5:15 PM EDT reply actions  

If Walker won't report...
...what about seeing what the Bears would give us for him? Now that they've cut Tank Johnson, they're desperate for DT depth. I'd bet we could get better than a sixth round pick.

by rexob on Jun 26, 2007 12:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Bears
Tommie Harris, Anthony Adams, Israel Idonije. They go three deep with talented tackles; I doubt they'd be interested in the Walker headache.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 26, 2007 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hey, if they stuck by Tank...
...through his previous legal problems, the Walker headache would be a picnic by comparison. I still think it's worth a call.

by rexob on Jun 26, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

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