A (ridiculously early) Bills Mock Draft
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Yes, it's only January. Yes, the NFL playoffs have not even started yet. No, the Bills do not yet have answers to their question marks at GM and offensive coordinator. Nary a free agent has been added of importance, and won't be until March 3.
And?
We all love talking about the draft. With the off-season in full swing in Buffalo and with answers to the GM/OC conundrums being provided at a snail's pace, I figured it was a good day to discuss something that always gets our blood going: NFL prospects. It helps, of course, that we've got Matt Miller from Mocking the Draft (and New Era Scouting) on the SB Nation bandwagon; New Era Scouting has already compiled a 7-round mock draft, and we're going to dissect it this morning. So, without further ado, here are the 9 Bills that NES guesses the Bills will be taking nearly four long months from now:
Round 1, Pick 11: Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
- Love it. Rucker, pictured at top right, is exactly the type of athletic playmaker we need offensively. Trent Edwards loves using his tight ends (no jokes, please), and Rucker's versatility allows him to line up in the backfield, on the line and in the slot. He truly is a matchup nightmare. He won't be considered a reach at #11 come April.
Round 2, Pick 44: DeJuan Tribble, CB, Boston College
- As good as the Rucker pick was, this one is just as bad. Tribble (5'9", 190) is small and not the best tackler by any means. His calling cards are superior ball skills and the return game - but Buffalo's Cover-2 scheme calls for bigger, physical corners, and they're set in the return department with Terrence McGee and Roscoe Parrish. I don't like this pick at all.
Round 3, Pick 72 (f/BAL): Will Franklin, WR, Missouri
- A college teammate of Rucker's, Franklin's 6'2", 205-pound frame makes him an ideal red zone threat and possession receiver. He's solid working the sidelines and the middle of the field, though he'll never overwhelm you with big-play ability. His skills mesh well with the current receivers on Buffalo's roster.
Round 3, Pick 75: Kenny Iwebema, DE, Iowa
- I'm not a huge fan of this pick, though I do believe the Bills could look for a pass-rushing end on Day One. Iwebema's strength is, well, his strength - the 6'4", 270-pound end isn't an elite pass rusher, and better fits the mold of Buffalo's current defensive ends. Iwebema will be solid in any scheme, but his worst fit is the Cover-2.
Round 4, Pick 108: Wesley Woodyard, LB, Kentucky
- On the plus side, Woodyard is one of Kentucky's best defenders, leaders and has a great motor. On the down side, he's a 212-pound linebacker - and the Bills certainly don't need any more lack of bulk at the position. Woodyard may be shifted to safety; if he were drafted by Buffalo, however, he'd almost certainly stay at linebacker because the team values speed there.
Round 5, Pick 139: Hilee Taylor, DE, North Carolina
- An undersized end with good ability. The 241-pounder is very athletic, has a good burst off the line and seems the ideal fit for a situational pass rushing role in a Cover-2 scheme. In any other situation, he'd likely be moved to outside 'backer for a 3-4 scheme. This pick is very, very intriguing.
Round 5, Pick 143 (f/CHI): Kirk Elder, OG, Texas A&M
- From the very little A&M ball I saw this season, Elder's a guy who plays hard, is very aggressive and has a nice mean streak. That, combined with his work ethic, make up for his overall lack of athletic ability. Elder probably isn't a long-term starter, but he'd be great young depth - better than Duke Preston, at any rate.
Round 6, Pick 172: Franklin Dunbar, OT, MTSU
- A redshirt sophomore, Dunbar is an early entry out of Middle Tennessee State. The 6'5", 318-pounder is considered a very green prospect that will need some development time at the NFL level - especially from a learning and leverage standpoint. He's an OK athlete and has a little upside, but according to Mocking the Draft, he hasn't exactly garnered a lot of draft interest.
Round 7, Pick 203: Derek Fine, TE, Kansas
- Fine is one of Kansas' best offensive threats, and emerged as a go-to target over the middle. Kansas, much like Missouri did with Martin Rucker, moved Fine around a lot in their offense - versatility that despite Rucker's addition would still be welcome to Buffalo's offense. Buffalo likes to stock-pile tight ends and H-Backs; this addition would give the Bills Rucker, Robert Royal and Mike Gaines at tight end, with Fine joining Derek Schouman at H-Back.

That's it. Take it for what it's worth at this point; I will say that I really, really, really like Rucker at this point. I've put in New Era Scouting's full reports on these players after the jump if you're looking for deeper analysis.

TE1. Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri, 6'5, 255
Big, athletic, smart and a leader. Can line up all over the field. Very athletic with good speed. Won't run away from safeties. Good over the middle. Not much of a blocker. Good vision and can move with the ball in his hands. Played off the line of scrimmage a lot. A first-round talent.
CB5. DeJuan Tribble, CB, Boston College, 5'9, 190
Compactly built corner whose speed may be suspect. Gambles too much. Not much of a tackler. His best asset is mirroring receivers as they try to lose him on breaks in routes. Possesses excellent ball skills. Added value as a return man.
WR10. Will Franklin, WR, Missouri, 6'2, 205
Has been overshadowed by the talented play of the tight ends and then freshman sensation Jeremy Maclin. A solid possession receiver who works well outside the hash marks. Can hurt a Cover 2 defense with his ability to sit in zones. Good speed.
DE6. Kenny Iwebema, DE, Iowa, 6'4, 270
Strong defensive end, especially at the point of attack. Could play end in a 3-4 or a 4-3. Plays physical and with a lot of effort. Doesn't have much edge speed or pass rush moves. Instead, he relies heavily on his strength. Has the frame to add about 15 pounds of bulk. Will play too upright, which negates leverage.
OLB8. Wesley Woodyard, OLB, Kentucky, 6'1, 212
Looks like a linebacker who can only make it in the Tampa-w defense. May project as a safety in other systems. Needs to get stronger because he'll struggle to tackle bigger players. Team leader who shows amazing work ethic, especially in the film room.
DE10. Hilee Taylor, DE, North Carolina, 6'3, 241
Undersized player who struggled to play up to his ability until his senior season. Has great athletic ability for the position and could probably even make the switch to 3-4 OLB if needed. Very quick off the snap. Spends most of his time in opposing backfields making plays against the run and the pass.
OG9. Kirk Elder, OG, Texas A&M, 6'5, 307
Thick, muscular guard who plays well in traffic. Stocky and squat. Mean, plays with amazing aggression. Doesn't play well in space, struggles to pull or get to the second level. Best in a box. Slow instincts. Doesn't see the blitz well.
Franklin Dunbar, OT, Middle Tennessee State, 6'5, 318
No scouting report yet from New Era Scouting.
Derek Fine, TE, Kansas, 6'3, 245
Moves around a lot in the Kansas offense. Is a go-to receiver over the middle. Clutch. Can make big plays in traffic. Has good speed and can run away from average linebackers. Is not very physical.
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35 comments
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RE: TE
by Zumone on
Jan 4, 2008 9:14 AM EST
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Rucker/Davis
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 9:20 AM EST
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RE: Gates-like?
Great post. I was going to ask, but you already touched on it. How does Martin Rucker compare to the NFL's elite tight ends (Antonio Gates and Kellen Winslow)? I would like to obtain a complete scouting report detailing his strengths and weaknesses. Most importantly, how legitimate are his hands, speed, quickness, explosion, and change-of-direction ability? How tough and competitve is he? As far as tight ends are concerned, Gates and Winslow should be the measuring stick. As I have mentioned previously, the entire Bills organization and fans should be picky when evaluating potential acquisitions if they want the Bills to be the best. If there are no elite tight ends available, do not settle for a decent tight end just because you need one. In this case, go after an elite player at another position (WR, WLB, DT or CB).
I watched Rucker in the Cotton Bowl and I thought he looked okay. It appeared that he was used primarily on intermediate and short/underneath/outlet routes. I did not see him utilized in the deep middle of the field, downfield, in the red zone, stretch the seam, or show exceptional run-after-the-catch ability, which are all areas where the Bills need significant improvement. However, I do understand the Cotton Bowl is only one game, not Rucker's full body of work.
Additionally, I do not think that the Bills should only look at players which exclusively fit their system or scheme, offensively or defensively. Team versatility should not be overlooked. For example, I do not think that the Bills should pass on a cornerback (no particular name) with tremendous closing speed, ball skills, confidence, and is outstanding in man coverage, just because he is smaller than ideal and is not a classic Cover 2 cornerback. Just because Cover 2 is your base defense does not mean that you do not need different types of talents. For instance, traditional big, stiff Cover 2 cornerbacks typically struggle in coverage versus fast, quick receivers. Why not have a different type of cornerback in your arsenal to match up better? In addition, specific situations may require you to not play your base scheme. The same concept applies to all positions and all phases of the game. Team versatility.
Comments from anyone are welcome. Go Bills!
by Fort Worth on
Jan 4, 2008 12:01 PM EST
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Scouting report
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 12:08 PM EST
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Scouting Report
by Fort Worth on
Jan 4, 2008 12:49 PM EST
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Very interesting...
Also a note - the Bills should have the #41 pick in the second round, not the #44.
by Krenn on
Jan 4, 2008 12:52 PM EST
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Re:
As far as Rucker as a WR goes, we don't have to do that. We already have Royal as our "blocking TE"; therefore, we can just use Rucker as a TE like the Chargers use Antonio Gates - keep him in motion and line him up in the slot, because he can beat most linebackers. That's a dimension this offense has never had, period.
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 12:58 PM EST
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Rucker/Davis
Rucker is more of an athlete, but do not confuse him with a Kellen Winslow type player. His game is not built on speed and flash, but on consistency and precision. He is more likely to catch 7 balls a game than to catch 2 and take them for long runs after the catch. He is not a slouch though, his straight line speed will be talked about, but he has great 5 and 10-yard quickness, which is much more important for a TE.
by MattMiller on
Jan 5, 2008 7:05 PM EST
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Seriously?
He's not even the top TE prospect in the draft and is likely a late 2nd rounder by all indications. I've read in a couple of places that he's not much of a threat after the catch, so what gives?
To take a TE that early he has to be an absolute gamechanger. I don't see Rucker as being that guy and I don't see a TE as THAT big of a need (though it is a pretty huge need). I would much rather go OLB or DE at #11 and a TE in round 2 (Rucker, Davis or Carlson)...
Also, Will Franklin that early? I've seen him from the 4th-6th rounds, so that would be a MAJOR surprise to me. In the 3rd/4th round areas, I'd like WR's Stevie Johnson (Kentucky), Marcus Smith (New Mexico), Jordy Nelson (K St) too. Any reports on those guys?
I'm not a fan of Tribble. I don't like taking midget corners so early, especially those with question marks (tackling, cover skills). I do think we need to add a top kick returner in the draft. I like a guy like Tyvon Branch from UConn in the 4th/5th rounds, if that's where he's projected. He's a 6 foot CB who's played pretty well the past couple of years and was one of the top kick returners in the country this year.
And please, no more undersized LB's. We do not need a guy who's 215 lbs trying to play LB for us, no matter how talented he may be. It's time we add some size to the position, IMO. There are plenty of bigger guys who have enough speed and quickness.
An H-Back pick would be a waste, IMO. I fully expect the new OC to bring back a traditional FB unless it's Schonert.
by Kurupt on
Jan 4, 2008 12:47 PM EST
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RE:
Please don't judge Rucker on where draft sites have him going right now, because as we all know, everything changes after the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. Given our lack of size on offense, lack of red zone threat, and Edwards' fondness of hitting the tight end in the passing game, I don't see Rucker "filling a need" - I see him as the one player who would help this team most, as it stands right now.
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 12:51 PM EST
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More on Rucker
Has top-notch body control. Can make a move in the air or on the ground to get open and find the football. Excellent control in his routes and has the ability to re-route himself to get to the ball in the air.
Sees the field very well and can find space and soft spots in a zone. Has experience here from the spread offense ran at Missouri. Runs well with the ball and has been used as a runner out of the backfield.
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 1:00 PM EST
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Keep In Mind...
by Fort Worth on
Jan 4, 2008 1:14 PM EST
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In that vein
I've found a couple of Missouri highlight tapes that show off the skills of not only Rucker (the Illinois tape does him justice), but Franklin as well:
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 1:25 PM EST
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To me...
Franklin does look really good though. I like him more and more now.
I've seen Chase Coffman considered the better TE and he looks pretty darn good. Too bad he probably isn't coming out.
Jeremy Maclin is a stud, nuff said. Wish we could get a guy like that down the road...
by Kurupt on
Jan 4, 2008 2:46 PM EST
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well
I found this scouting report on him:
Weaknesses:
Could stand to put on some weight and bulk up...Will need to get stronger...Plays a finesse game and is not real tough or aggressive...Average route runner...Won't do much after the catch...A sub par blocker..Drops some balls..Does not separate.
I couldn't find any other reports with much worth saying. This one had some good things to say, but it also sounds as if he's still developing.
I really don't want to see us use the #11 pick on a guy who doesn't seem like a sure thing. He's got good athleticism, but his straight line speed is still in question. He does sound like the red zone threat we've been dreaming of, but doesn't sound like a Winslow/Gates/Davis type player. He sounds to me like a better Leonard Pope with more athleticism...
I would much rather go Derrick Harvey, Vernon Gholston, James Laurinaitis, Keith Rivers or some other impact defender over a TE in the 1st. I would take my chances in the 2nd hoping Rucker is there or Davis/Carlson, who are higher rated by most outlets. There are other potential TE's with good receiving skills, Jacob Tamme, Dustin Keller, Kellen Davis, where I don't think they are that far behind Rucker. Since he seems like such a poor blocker, why waste a high pick on that type of player when very similar ones could be had in the 3rd/4th rounds?
by Kurupt on
Jan 4, 2008 2:36 PM EST
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I'm with you on Gholston
I guess I'm alone on the bandwagon that says draft good players, no matter how much flack you may take. As I commented before to jri111, most of the players you guys are mentioning as alternates were already off the board in this mock - Gholston went 18, Laurinaitis went #13, so those ones would have made some sense. I don't like Rucker as a blocker, by the way - but as I also said before, we don't need a blocker, because we've got Royal.
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 3:01 PM EST
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not to pil on brain...
Erik (Pompton Lakes, NJ): Who could be the first TE taken and where does he end up? What about John Carlson?
Mel Kiper: Carlson has good hands, is a decent blocker, but did not have a great year. The pieces weren't in place in his system. He suffered because of that. The top TE would be Fred Davis-excellent player with a strong game yesterday. Brandon Pettigrew is in the mix as well. There is a good group of TEs from the junior class. Bennet from A&M, Beckum from Wisconsin. John Carlson is third right now. Martin Rucker from Missouri is fourth. Jacob Tamme from Kentucky could be a Chris Cooley type. Another interesting guy is Mike Peterson from Northwest Missouri State.
by jri111 on
Jan 4, 2008 4:54 PM EST
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Let me re-iterate
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 4:59 PM EST
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so
Why would we spend the #11 pick on a guy who's one-dimensional like that? It wouldn't make sense. I still think we can get a player of somewhat comparable skill in the 3rd or 4th round.....
by Kurupt on
Jan 5, 2008 1:06 AM EST
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One-dimensional?
Care to talk about the blocking skills of Ben Watson or Kellen Winslow? They're not great, but yet they're heralded as two of the best tight ends in the league - because they're playmakers. I know you don't like Rucker as the #11 pick, but it's hard to deny what he would bring to the table for our woeful offense.
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 5, 2008 7:47 AM EST
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i don't know...
As I've said a number of times, I do believe that TE is Levy's number 1 priority and even though he's gone now, I think he will convey that message to Wilson and Jauron.
That said, I don't think they should reach for a guy like Rucker with the 11th pick. I'd much rather go after a guy like Sedrick Ellis (DT) or Dan Connor (LB) or Keith Rivers (LB). Maybe (and this is a big maybe) even a WR like Malcome Kelly (by no means am I sold on a first round WR), but the kid has the size 6'4'' and there is a chance that when the bills pick, no WR's have been taken yet and he could be number 1 at his position.
I like Rucker, but I agree with Krupt, probably could be had in the second round. At the very least the Bills have a very high second and two high thirds - if they were really scared they could do what they've been doing the last few years and trade up to get him after filling another hole in the first round.
by jri111 on
Jan 4, 2008 1:03 PM EST
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In this mock...
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 4, 2008 1:07 PM EST
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K...
Please note that this was made well before the Jan. 15th deadline for underclassmen to declare, and also during the NFL season. The Bills currently need a GM and an OC, so we are really projecting their needs three months from now and making a lot of assumptions as to what direction they will go with this pick. A lot could change, we know this and will update accordingly.
What we do know, for sure, is that Buffalo will target the TE position in the off-season. Having been at many Missouri games this year, I was fortunate enough to talk with scouts from the Buffalo regime and gauge their interest in Rucker. NFL Scouts only go to home games for players they are interested in, they don't usually scout the "away" players, and they were very clear that Rucker and Franklin were on their radar.
Rucker may not be flashy like the TEs you've mentioned, but what Buffalo needs is a middle-receiver. Lee Evans is your deep threat, adding a TE that can out run him isn't important. Adding someone to work the intermediate zones, especially against three division opponents that run a 3-4.
I may be biased against Franklin, but I like what he brings as a possession receiver. Like you said in a later post, the more I see him the more I like him.
Tribble may not be tall, but after seeing Wes Welker torch the Bills twice this year, a nickel corner is pretty high on your to-do list.
by MattMiller on
Jan 5, 2008 7:11 PM EST
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Re: nickel corner
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 5, 2008 7:59 PM EST
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Thanks
I agree with you that the Bills will be targeting TE's this offseason and Rucker may indeed be one of the top choices, but I just don't think it's best for the Bills to take him at #11, nor do I think he's worth that high of a pick. I don't think the value is there and I don't believe he's that much more talented than some other TE prospects who look to be 2nd/3rd prospects. If he were picked at #11, I would kind of be stunned. I think a defensive player is where they'll go there.
Interesting comments regarding the Bills' scouts at the Mizzou games. No wonder you picked those two for the Bills. Do you think Franklin could be available in the 4th at this point? I know that depends on the underclassmen who declare, but is he a solid 3rd rounder who could move up, or he is someone who would fall back due to increased numbers of WR's available?
I don't like Tribble and I don't think a nickel CB is what is needed. I think a starting CB is needed to push Greer back to the nickel/slot. I would think a mid level vet CB would be a better idea and then a 4th/5th round pick to be added for depth/development.
Have any bigger OLB prospects that you think would be around in the 2nd/3rd round region? The Bills need to add more size to the position, not another smallish backer...
Thanks
by Kurupt on
Jan 5, 2008 8:47 PM EST
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Feedback
As for Franklin, we are seeing the WR position flooded with juniors this weekend. I do think that if we continue to see this trend until Jan. 15, Franklin could fall to the 4th round. What's hard to predict, and a reason I do not like mock drafts, is perceived value. I know the 49ers also really like Franklin, and who is to say he's not a third-round player on their board?
Another seemingly false assumption was that Buffalo was looking for Cover 2 style small outside linebackers. Woodyard fits that bill (no pun). Jasper Brinkley's name was mentioned, but he is going back to SC for another year after a redshirt. If you're thinking LB early, Connor or Rivers could play OLB for you and are the big, physical OLB. In Rd 2 you have guys like Xavier Adibi and Beau Bell, but neither are that "big". This class is pretty small at OLB.
Here is a link to our value boards to give you an idea of where things stand today: http://www.newerascouting.com/index.php?c=9.
I'll also take a minute to completely self-promote: We are always looking for writers and/or qualified scouts. We need people that know the AFC East.
by MattMiller on
Jan 6, 2008 11:31 AM EST
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This draft
I like Rucker, I would prefer Ellis or Gholston, but I wouldn't complain to much if the pick is Rucker.
by sireric on
Jan 4, 2008 5:43 PM EST
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One little Change
He's Crazy( watch the whole thing):
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3137053269914518659&q=owen+schmidt&total=46&sta rt=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0
Can Block:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbwbWOJM-bM
And is a monster at running:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=989696086682433971&q=owen+schmidt&total=46&start =0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=4
by jwest529 on
Jan 4, 2008 8:33 PM EST
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I've mentioned him before
by sireric on
Jan 4, 2008 10:22 PM EST
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Schmitt
by MattMiller on
Jan 5, 2008 7:13 PM EST
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Not that it matters...
by Thronsen on
Jan 5, 2008 4:40 AM EST
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It does
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 5, 2008 7:48 AM EST
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Mocking the draft
by Metzelaars on
Jan 5, 2008 11:03 AM EST
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It's more New Era Scouting
by Brian Galliford on
Jan 5, 2008 11:06 AM EST
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Thank you
by MattMiller on
Jan 5, 2008 7:12 PM EST
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