Bills/Cardinals: Examining the Football Cliches
Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
You've heard them, you know them by heart, and you're either irritated by or embrace their simplicity. NFL teams spout cliches at you - their favorite being "we're taking things one game at a time" - because they're tested theories that have proven to work most often in this league. Good teams live by and excel at these cliches. When the Buffalo Bills make a cross-country trip to take on the Arizona Cardinals this coming Sunday, two good football teams will take the field, elevating the importance of the cliches.
How adept are the Bills and Cardinals at fulfilling some of today's most popular cliches? Let's examine...
Cliche 1: "Run and stop the run"
Both Buffalo and Arizona are surprisingly similar in this department. Both teams have two-back systems that they employ, with Arizona relying on contributions from Edgerrin James and rookie Tim Hightower, and the Bills leaning on Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Neither team is particularly adept at rushing the football, however; the Cardinals are averaging 3.2 yards per rush on the season, while the Bills aren't much better at 3.5 yards per rush.
Even defensively, both teams are strikingly similar. Though they've been missing their top two nose tackles (Gabe Watson and Alan Branch), the Cards are surrendering 4.0 yards per rush; that's actually a tick better than the Bills at this point, who are giving up 4.1 yards per rush despite a more consistent defensive attack led by Marcus Stroud and Kyle Williams. Advantage: Push
Cliche 2: "Get off the field on third down"
Buffalo's third down defense has been one of the biggest factors in the team's fast start. Through the first four games, the Bills have allowed opponents to convert just 10 of 52 third down attempts, a 19.2% clip. This has been more of a problem area for the Cardinals, who give up first downs at nearly double the rate (16/44, 36.4%). Advantage: Buffalo
Cliche 3: "Convert third downs offensively"
The Bills have become much more adept at sustaining drives this season, and it's a big reason that the team's offense is putting up 22 points per game by themselves. Buffalo, led by Trent Edwards, has converted 18 of 52 third downs offensively, a 34.6% conversion rate.
Arizona, however, treats this as a strength of their team. Behind a potent passing attack led by Kurt Warner, Arizona has converted 22 of 51 third down opportunities, good for a 43.1% conversion rate. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the league at sustaining drives. Advantage: Arizona
Cliche 4: "Control time of possession"
Even though they're 4-0, the Bills have only held narrow time of possession margins over their opponents each week. Through four games, the Bills have had the ball for 53.5% of field time. This is only narrowly ahead of the Cardinals, who have had one dominant T.O.P. game to "pad" their stats (they held the ball for over 37 minutes in their opening day win over San Francisco). Arizona possesses the ball for 52.9% of field time. Advantage: Push
Cliche 5: "Don't shoot yourself in the foot"
Buffalo was the least penalized team in the league in 2007 despite their 7-9 record; that's why through four games, the 14 penalties that the Bills have accrued - most of them from the offensive line - have irritated Bills fans to no end.
Believe me when I say it could be worse - in fact, it could be twice as worse, as it is in Arizona, who have committed 29 penalties through the team's first four games this season. Ouch! Advantage: Buffalo
Cliche 6: "Don't settle for field goals"
Arizona's offense is a touch more potent - they're averaging 26.5 points per game as compared to Buffalo's 22 - but it's actually the Bills who are more efficient in the red zone by a hair (translation: Arizona makes a few more big plays). Arizona scores 52.4% of their red zone trips; the Bills score on 54.3% of theirs. Advantage: Push
Cliche 7: "Make your opponent settle for field goals"
Red zone defense is key to winning games in this league; in particular, it's key to keeping your team in games, and good defense in the red area is exactly why the Bills have been able to stage some fourth-quarter comebacks this season. The Bills have allowed touchdowns on 2 of 9 opponent trips into the red zone this season, a 22% clip. For Arizona, this area is a weakness; Cardinals opponents have put up six on seven of 12 trips into the red zone, a 58.3% clip. Advantage: Buffalo
Cliche 8: "Win the turnover battle"
This area is far more even than I anticipated, considering Kurt Warner's performance at The Meadowlands this past weekend. Arizona has turned the ball over nine times in four games while forcing six themselves for a -3 differential. The Bills have overcome some turnover issues themselves (particularly in the Oakland game); they've committed five and forced six, a +1 differential. Advantage: Buffalo
Cliche 9: "Protect your home turf"
In the past two seasons, Arizona has proven to be a much different team at home (7-2) than on the road (3-8). In the past two seasons, the Bills are 5-5 on the road, including 2-0 this season. Arizona's prowess in the desert gives them a distinct advantage here, and it's one that Buffalo could have a hard time overcoming. Advantage: Arizona
Comments
Haven’t we forced 7 turnovers? An INT and fumble against Seattle, an INT and fumble against Jax, a fumble against Oakland, and the INT and fumble against St. Louis? The Jax fumble was the last play of the game, so it might be 6. Either way, we need the defense to become more opportunistic. They really haven’t even been close to getting any other turnovers. As we start playing better teams, turnovers will become much more important for us….
~K
by Kurupt on
Oct 2, 2008 10:32 AM EDT
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Just six – only an INT against Jacksonville. There was a fumble recovered on the last play of the game, but it was changed on replay to an illegal forward pass.
There have been a few times the Bills forced fumbles which went out of bounds – that’s close to a turnover. Also, of the QBs the Bills have faced, Garrard throws very few INTs, Russell throws very few passes, and Hasselbeck and Green are normally pretty accurate. The Bills should get more picks against Favre-like gunslingers – Warner, Cutler, Anderson, and of course Favre himself (twice). Like that bizarre pass he threw across the field off the wrong foot in the first quarter that had pick-six written all over it. Sadly Arizona had to settle for a blocked field goal.
by Krenn on
Oct 2, 2008 11:26 AM EDT
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I agree turnovers will become much more important, but…couldn’t it be argued that the lack of turnover production is a function of our 3rd down defense? If the defense is consistently forcing opposing offenses off the field on third down, turnovers are not as important to stopping drives and there are simply less opportunities.
by Zumone on
Oct 2, 2008 11:58 AM EDT
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Hello Bills Fans
Love this post Brian, good stuff.
Cliche 1: To my dismay I think we will see a more conservative approach by the Cards at the start of the game and they will try to throw in a lot more run plays than I would like to see. Not to familiar with your d-line but I would still like to see them take to the air and try to jump out and take an early lead.
Cliche 2 & 3: Could go either way. If Warner can maintain his composure we will fair rather well here. If not and he misfires under pressure, this could mean potential disaster = turnovers!
Cliche 5: Considering we had more penalties last season than any other team and we are on track to keep that record at home. This could be a big factor in this game.
Cliche 6: We were the best in the league last year in the red zone, I feel confident that if we get there we will puit some numbers on the board.
Cliche 7: One word, RACKERS :(
Cliche 8: I think Warner is a far more confident QB at home and I think there will be a prominent emphasis here this game.
Cliche 9: We have a great record at home and I think the crowds higher expectations this year have added to the crowds enthusiasm. This may be a game were the home advantage might not be so prominent as much faith has been lost over the past two games. In years past It has been far easier to take the crowd out of the game in Arizona then it should be. Unless I’m in the stands:)
by badmatty53 on
Oct 2, 2008 12:44 PM EDT
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It's 2008 NOT 2007 any longer
1) I have a feeling you’ll KNOW our ‘D’ line a LOT better after Sunday especially if your game plan of running early & often holds true.
2) & 3) See number 1.
4) Push as Brian said.
5) A “last season” reply (it’s the 2008 season & last year is in the books & over with) – Thank God!!!
6) Again? See # 5 above.
7) You’ll also see what the Bills Red Zone ‘D’ is all about as well.
8) For the Cards sake, you better be right. Turn-overs will kill as was evident last week.
9) What happens when the Bills take the crowd completely out of the game?
Season Ticket Holder Sec: 312, Row: 15
"There's NO place like home when it's the Big Tree Inn"
by Pocono Bob on
Oct 2, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
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Hi Bob
Just giving you one Cardinal fans perspective. Didn’t realize you were mistreated as a child, let it go Bob, it’s not your fault Bob…It’s not your fault Bob. Thought from my interaction from a previous post this has been a friendly exchange thus far. Sorry to have imposed.
Your right the points i’ve made about last year are completely irrelevant…
by badmatty53 on
Oct 2, 2008 3:33 PM EDT
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I'm not so sure your Cards will go into a shell...
The Bills defense has yet to face a pass happy offense. Whiz will undoubtedly look at the film from the past 4 games and determine that Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland and (aside from 2 long runs) St Louis didn’t have terrific success running the ball against the Bills. None of those four teams really had much success throwing the ball but none of them had the passing talent Arizona does. (Seattle and Jax were without their #1 and #2 WRs, Oakland doesn’t trust Russell to go win games, and the Rams had just benched their starting QB for a journeyman.) I can see Whiz trying out an entirely different formula than the Bills defense has seen—throw early, throw often and throw long. Buffalo isn’t generating enormous pressure with just the front four so Warner (or Leinart, depending on where the QB carosel stops spinning on Sunday…) should have time to throw some 20+ yard passes.
I, for one, am hoping that Edwards can finally put together a good game (as opposed to just a good second half) and that the Bills build an early lead on some clock consuming drives. I am further hoping that the defense can withstand the furious onslaught of passes certain to follow as Arizona looks to get back into the game.
While I think Buffalo is a better overall team than the Cardinals there’s not a huge gap between them. With that said, I can see this turning into a lopsided score….and I just hope Buffalo is on the winning end.
by Ron From NM on
Oct 2, 2008 7:24 PM EDT
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Big test for our secondary.
This will be the first game this season the Bills will face a team with a group of very good wide recievers. If Boldin plays the rating goes up to an excellent group of wide recievers. I don’t anticipate we will get pressure on Warner from our front four. Expect to see some creative Blits packages from the Bills. The Bills will have to score 35+ points to win. Go Bills!!!!!
by gjv on
Oct 2, 2008 6:59 PM EDT
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