Predictable play calling leads to slow starts for Buffalo
by Brian Galliford on Oct 29, 2008 8:26 AM EDT
in Opinion
31 comments
One of the Buffalo Bills' most common problems they have endured - and in most cases, overcome - during the 2008 season is the team's inability to start a game quickly. The slow starts have forced the Bills into three fourth-quarter comeback victories this season; in fact, the Bills have faced a fourth quarter deficit in all but two of their games this season - home wins against Seattle and San Diego.
What's the cause for the slow starts? There's more than one reason, but I may have stumbled across the biggest culprit while breaking down film from this weekend's loss to Miami. Buffalo's play-calling was horridly predictable in the first half, and Miami took advantage of it.
Predictable Play-Calling
The Bills took a 9-7 lead into the break in Miami, but let's face it - they shouldn't have. The Bills were able to drive twice for field goals largely on the contributions of Dolphins penalties; otherwise, Miami handled Buffalo's offense pretty well. Why? They knew what was coming.
Including plays which were penalized either way, Buffalo dialed up 23 passes in the first half. A whopping 19 of them (83%) came out of the shotgun formation. Turk Schonert also dialed up 15 runs in the first half - and of those, 14 of them came with Trent Edwards lining up under center (93%). That means that of the 37 called plays in the first half, the Dolphins likely had more than an educated guess of what was coming close to 90 percent of the time. That's ridiculous - and it was compounded by the fact that Schonert didn't even toss in a play-action pass.
Without going back to look at film from the Bills' other six games on the season, I can assume that this type of telegraphy is occurring in the majority of Buffalo's games. Luckily, the Bills caught it at the half here - and when they changed it up, the Bills scored a touchdown on their first possession of the second half.
Second Half Adjustment
On the Bills' lone touchdown drive of the game, Schonert dialed up two play-action passes. Edwards completed one to Lee Evans for a first down, and on the other one, he was forced to scramble for a short gain. The Bills ran 5 times on the drive (notice the run orientation leading to success), all from under center. Two of Edwards' three passing plays on the drive came from under center. Touchdown.
Overall - even while throwing in numbers while the Bills were throwing while down more than one score - Buffalo did better in the second half. All five of the play-action passes Schonert called came in the third and fourth quarters. 14 of the 20 passing plays were out of the shotgun (70%), again including the passes Edwards attempted late in the game. 8 of the 10 second-half runs were from under center, but the Bills abandoned the run earlier than they should have - and we've already been over that. The Bills moved the ball in the second half. Turnovers killed them, obviously, but the ball was moving.
As for the formational breakdown: 19 of 20 shotgun plays in the first half were passes (95%), while 14 of 18 under center plays were runs (78%). 14 of 16 shotgun plays in the second half were passes (88%), while 8 of 14 under center plays were runs (57%). The play-calling got better - but improved balance must be a priority, especially in formation.
Something needs to change
Look - I don't do this football thing professionally. I'm just a fan that spends way too much time doing what I do. When I know what the Bills are about to do offensively 90 percent of the time, there's a problem - because NFL coaches and defenders are smarter than me. It's great to see that the Bills caught it at the half, but this can't become a trend.
The quick fix? Stick to the run, and use it to complement the pass. Mix up formations. I understand the need to get Edwards into the shotgun, as it makes it easier on him to read defenses, but it's likely the reason that he's taking so many hits, as well - defenders can tee off on him. This seems like an easy fix to me. If it doesn't get adjusted, Buffalo will continue to have to dig themselves out of holes early. Dick Jauron didn't build this team to do that too often.
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Great Points
Predictability is one thing teams rely on to stuff opposing offenses on a regular basis. Fantastic catch Brian. You may spend way too time watching the Bills as a fan, but you still caught something that not many fans would have caught… including myself…
BILLS RULE !
by chaosthepitbull on Oct 29, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
I don’t get why we don’t have more play action, more screen and more outside runs in the gameplans?? We seem to run the same plays out of the same formations each game!
~K
by Kurupt on Oct 29, 2008 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
I noticed some of this but had no idea it was 90%. And the only stupid running play they run out of shotgun is the sweep inside handoff, where the RB comes from Tren’t right and takes the ball inside the LT to whatever gap that is.
I would much rather have more screens and draws and runs out of shotgun cuz I like the shotgun and I think Trent is natural in it. Also, going no-huddle I think needs to be done more when they are sluggish like they were on Sunday. When Trent is under center on first down it is almost ALWAYS a run! Ludicrous. I am dying for this game on Sunday to get this bad taste out of my mouth after losing to the PHISH.
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Oct 29, 2008 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great article Brian
For years felt that the play calling has been lacking, albeit a little better with Turk. I agree with MARVelous, in addition to the play action, I would like to see more screens and draws…out of ANY formation. It seems that other teams screen us to death and we rarely return the favor. Also it would be nice to throw in some misdirections, particularly with Action Jackson. I always assumed that the OC’s knew what would work best, but after years of witnessing the Bills less than productive offenses, I’m not so sure. If it wasn’t for the low bar set by his last several predecessors, Turk would be on a shorter leash in the eyes of Bills fans.
by NJBill on Oct 29, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
I’m a little woozy by the 2nd quarter of games so I could be making it up in my head but didn’t we run draws pretty regularly in our first few games? I felt like we saw a bunch of them early in the season. And that is a great catch brian, 90 and 88 percent of our shotgun formations are passes? I would have thought it was much lower.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Oct 29, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could be right...
If so, I think that the Bills have cleverly disguised them as runs for negative yardage. Maybe it’s the execution, stacked box or weak link at center; regardless I haven’t seen too many draws that, well look like draws and gain the decent yardage one might expect.
by NJBill on Oct 29, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Predictability is what killed us last year...
Didn’t realize the under center vs shotgun stats, for sure they need to adjust. It’s no wonder that Marshawn is at a mere 3.5y/carry, defenses are able to key in on him. With a backfield like ours we should be running a lot more Play-Action. Marshawn is a workhorse that should be used – period. Play-action will help open things up for him, not the shotgun. Also, we should also find ways of inserting both Lynch/Jackson more often.
by keysh67 on Oct 29, 2008 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree
We need the threat of a Lynch or Jackson run to keep some of the heat off of Trent. Mixing in some of the stuff you folks mentioned would certainly help.
And if the Bills want to use the shotgun, why not use Lynch and Jackson as receivers? I’m thinking of a play I remember where the backs line up a couple of yards to either side of the QB, and take off in opposite directions into the flat to be dump off options. All I’m really trying to say is, the Bills offensive staff needs to be a little more creative in the way they use the RB’s in the shotgun formation.
Get the Bills back to the big game!
by Blitz on Oct 29, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and that pic
Brian has got to go….do we really have to remember that!!!!!!!
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Oct 29, 2008 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ESPN page 2
just named wilson dirtiest player in the NFL in light of that hit, and the fact harrison is probably done with his career. heres the link
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=fleming/081029&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab5pos1
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Oct 29, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
so that link doesnt work, but anyways im sure you guys call all find page 2 on espn if you want to read it
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Oct 29, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Oct 29, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't the players spend all pre-season
telling us that there was going to be much more mixing up of formations and less predictable playcalling? What the heck happened to that?
by thefourwinds on Oct 29, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great find Brian
I hope the coaches are aware of this. It is so obvious. I have been a fan of the prechosen play method. Script your first 15 plays, run them and see what works, Then adjust accordingly.
everything goes better with bacon
by keuka121 on Oct 29, 2008 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess
we can all see that. Isn’t that what the quality control coach is for to predict patterns in the offense and defense, I know they do for the other team but don’t they also look at our team also. I just can’t believe that the bills are not aware of this that’s just incopatence on their part
Bills Fan in PA
by BILLS on Oct 29, 2008 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As I mentioned in the article, they ARE aware of it. They made the adjustment in the second half, and we scored on our first possession. We just need to be a little more precise early in games is all.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Oct 29, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It Was The Game Plan
Schonert spent all week installing the plays they ran in the 1st half because he thought they would work against Miami’s defense. You have to give credit to Miami’s staff for having a better game-plan. Predictability has not been a trend this season with Buffalo’s offense, but Schonert felt those play-calls should have worked against Miami’s D. Schonert has been excellent at making adjustments at the half…. I’ve NEVER been able to say as much for Perry Fewell. The Bills lost this game because of too many mistakes on the road, to put it simply.
There are 2 main reasons Buffalo lost (in my opinion):
1) failure to blitz Chad Pennington into mistakes
2) failure to take full advantage of Miami’s poor run defense
I think Trent has given the staff TOO much confidence in him because Schonert seems have NO confidence in our OL to open holes for our RBs.
And to spin off of what you were hitting on formations… the Bills should run some 3WR Ace formations because you force the defense to substitute and you can effectively run and pass out of this formation. The Colts USED to do this very well, and they were able to use play-action on almost every pass because of it.
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
by ForeignArrow on Oct 29, 2008 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just for clarification – I never said that the predictability is why they lost. I’m saying the predictability is cause for their slow starts. It’d be much easier for this team to win games if they got early leads; they’re not going to do that with this type of first half predictability.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Oct 29, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The new O.C. and young team had to establish an identity, and build trust with each other coming out of the gates. Is that a good enough reason for the trend you exposed here?
I am encouraged that the Bills have half of the season to mix it up. At least there is not a whole bunch of film showing play action and screens.
by thurman on Oct 29, 2008 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Contact - Brian
Brian,
I think that after reading posts like this or other similar posts with excellent content that you should send it over to Chris Brown or someone at OBD. Could be useful.
I’m sure that they probably won’t do anything with it. But it would be a good idea and he might get some good ideas for articles or possible ask the coaches during their press conferences.
Just a thought. But this was a good read and very insightful. I didn’t know they were that predictable either.
Or just tell him that you CC’d Belichick and he has that post as well. :)
by J2 on Oct 29, 2008 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no way!
Brown is competition. Let Brian keep posting the good stuff and maybe he can get in the with some questions for the coaches one day. Get us loyal fans the answers we really want instead of Brown’s fluff.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Oct 29, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Competition of Brown
Wouldn’t you like a good post from Buffalo Rumblings to be credited with questions that are asked to the coaching staff? Especially if it warrants a change? And because they are valid/legit issues.
IMO – that would help promote this site….not the opposite……homie
by J2 on Oct 29, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
IMO – that could be the step that needs to be taken in order for him to get to that stage. have to start some where…..that would be a good starting point.
It would be cool also to have Rumblers post questions then have everyone vote to which ones they wanted to be asked. things of this nature.
But you do have to start somwhere if that is the goal to question the staff, this could be an “in”.
by J2 on Oct 29, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair point
so long as rumblings got the credit I would be all for that. Also, I haven’t been called homie since my college days, makes me feel young again. Haha
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Oct 29, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahh college
Those were the days…definately miss them.
that would be sweet if he could get into that situation. Sometimes i think (obsessed) fans help point out things that others dont see as well.
you probably know when your working on a project, when someone steps in they can shed some light on an issue because your just so overwhelmed with everthing thats going on. Its nice to have a different perspective, it helps out.
by J2 on Oct 29, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually
you might be on to something. Brian should try and establish something with Brown about a weekly fan question forum. Once a week Brian could open up a post for questions from fans and send it to Brown. Knowing the kind of people on this site, I’m sure Brian could pluck out a few insightful and thoughtful questions a week. It could become a staple, a way for the Bills brass to reach out to the fans. That is of course, if they have the time. I like it!
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Oct 29, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been saying it all year.
Run the damn ball.
Another thing…..Use the damn Fullback. Teams under estimate what a full Back means to the running game.
LT may be hampered, but he’s still not hobbled enough to dominate a game. I’m not buying that. The main culprit to the Chargers dwiddling run game, is because they idioticly let Lorenzo Neal go.
Full Backs turn 2 gains. to 5 yard gains.
The Bills are still young, right now they seem to be trying to capture a finesse image on the offensive side of the ball. Which is fine, but they have to run the ball. No matter how good Peyton is. He’s at his best when the run game is hot.
13 Carries for Marshawn?
Wow.
Peace!
by Scoe221 on Oct 29, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but this really has nothing to do with the predictability of play-calling. We’re talking about variety here, not pass vs run. Yes, the Bills need to run the ball, but it’d be helpful if they did it in a far less conspicuous manner – especially early in games.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Oct 29, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are right!
I agree that the biggest difference this year for LT is the loss of Neal. It might also be because he is also aging like all of us but I am certain that the loss of Neal is a big part of it. Lynch is not an outside runner, he is a BEAST that earns his living between the tackles, perfect situation for using a powerful FB.
Lynch must get over 20 carries per game from here on out if we are to be successful. We absolutely need to establish the run game between the tackles if we want to make the playoffs. And I agree with Brian that providing opposing Defenses with easy reads is not the key to the promised land.
by keysh67 on Oct 30, 2008 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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