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Bills/Jets: Four Key Matchups

Thebestteameverred_medium    Nyj_medium
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, November 2 - 1:00 PM EST

In what has consistently been the most heated of all AFC East battles over the last few years, the 5-2 Buffalo Bills are set to host the 4-3 New York Jets this weekend in a renewed division rivalry.  Despite the fact that the Bills swept the Jets last season, this rivalry has been relatively even during the Tom Brady Era of the AFC East.  These two teams are now in the thick of the tightest division race in recent memory, heightening the importance of this game.

John Butchko of Gang Green Nation and I have singled out four key matchups for this game; rather than both provide break-downs of each matchup, we each took two and left the rivalry out of it.  We're saving the rivalry for game day; Buffalo needs to play with a bit more emotion than they did last weekend.  Here are the matchups, with each of our break-downs:

MATCHUP ONE: Jets CB Darrelle Revis vs. Bills WR Lee Evans
Butchko: The Jets have a pretty thin secondary. Aside from Revis, only Dwight Lowery might be capable of going one on one consistently with any kind of success against even an average receiver. This means Revis will probably be left on an island a lot with Evans. A vertical threat like Evans does give me cause for concern because Darrelle has been beaten deep a few times this season. Fortunately for the Jets, the opposition typically has not had the quarterback to exploit it. Trent Edwards will.  On a personal note, this matchup will serve as one of the agonies of playing fantasy football as Evans is on my team.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP TWO: Bills OT Jason Peters vs. Jets LB Calvin Pace
Galliford: I like Peters in this one.  Jason has been playing well, and although he hasn't reached his Pro Bowl level of 2007, he's probably also gotten a bad rap for giving up some plays in key situations.  I'd like to see Peters play a little harder and through the whistle - if he does that, he'll be one of the best at his position for a very long time.  Pace isn't an overwhelmingly athletic player, so if he picks up sacks, it'll be because Edwards is holding the ball too long.  Pace is a very good player, but he's the type of player that Peters has handled in the past.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP THREE: Jets NT Kris Jenkins vs. Bills C Duke Preston
Butchko: It is only fitting we look at this matchup, considering the wars Kevin Mawae and Ted Washington had for years in this rivalry. While the media fawned over the addition of Brett Favre, Jenkins was probably the biggest move the Jets made in the offseason. Teams have struggled to run against the Jets this year because Jenkins has been an immovable object in the middle of the line. He has gained penetration
constantly and kept his linebackers clean. The best nose tackles occupy two gaps. There have been times this season when Jenkins has occupied three gaps worth of blockers. With all of the attention he has drawn, it has benefited other players like Shaun Ellis, who has seen more one on one matchups and is putting together his best season since2003. Preston will have his hands full.  Advantage: Jets

MATCHUP FOUR: Bills ST kick coverage vs. Jets KR Leon Washington
Galliford: The Bills won't give Washington many opportunities to touch the ball on kicking teams.  Rian Lindell has mastered the "pooch kickoff", in which he pops a kick high into the air and an up man is forced to fair catch it at about the 30 yard line.  The Bills feel comfortable sacrificing field position to make the offense work for scores; unless the Jets get creative and move Washington around to fool the Bills, I doubt he gets more than one or two chances to return kicks.  Advantage: Push

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Matchup 5

Favre VS Bills Secondary

While Favre has frustrated his fan base with 11 picks, he still has 15 TD’s on the year. Also, since our D-Line gets almost zero pressure against anyone, our DB’s minus a healthy McGee will be in for a tough time. Favre will probably put up at least 3 TD’s while we probably won’t get a pick (opinion).

Advantage – Jets

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 12:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, well, Phil Rivers turned the ball over, did he not? We can force turnovers, particularly at home. Optimism, peeps.

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by Brian Galliford on Oct 31, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just calling them as i see them

Favres had 2 bad outings the last 2 weeks. He’s probably due for a good game. Our D-Line doesn’t get consistent pressure, we get carved up by good QB’s. writing is on the wall as they say…..

however….THAT’S why they play the games

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not disagreeing. All I’m saying is that we can and have overcome it.

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by Brian Galliford on Oct 31, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good

because i never said anything about losing that game :)

I know we can do that….every game we can win – IMO

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brian, if you don’t disagree than I will.

Favre will probably put up at least 3 TD’s while we probably won’t get a pick (opinion).

Favre is averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt, which is pretty average. Don’t let the TDs fool you, he has not been a good QB this year. He had 6 TDs in that crazy game against AZ and that really skews his season averages. The only other time he has thrown 3 TDs this year was when they got blown out by San Diego and spent the whole second half throwing to try and get back in it. In addition to that, the Bills havn’t allowed an opposing QB to throw 3 TDs yet this season. Tom Brady has actually been the only QB to throw 3 TDs against the Bills since Drew Brees threw for 4 during week 11 of 2005. NY’s season opener against Miami was the only week all year where Favre hasn’t thrown a pick and he has thrown more than one INT in 4 of his last 5 games. While the Bills don’t have a good pass rush, KC has been the only team not to sack him at least twice this year. He holds onto the ball too long, forces throws into coverage and simply doesn’t make good decisions.

we get carved up by good QB’s

Obviously good QBs are going to do better against us than bad QBs. That is what makes them good and bad QBs. Which good QBs have exactly carved us up too? Rivers did prety well, but we held him well below his season averages in almost every statistical category. I know that Warner “carved us up”, but if you compare his season averages against what he did against us, it was nothing out of the ordinary for Warner. The Bills totally shut down David Garrard, but Trent Green had a pretty solid outing against us. I don’t see this correlation between how good vs bad QBs do against us as anything other than ordinary, typical NFL.

by kaisertown on Oct 31, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your first point is exactly why we NEED to play our corners tight this week. Make Favre try to squeeze it into tight coverage. That’s where his mistakes mount. Doing this will also help our rush get after him.

If we sit back like we did last week, Favre will kill us. And if that happens, I think J2 will be right. Maybe not for 3 TD’s, but Favre will have a good game then with limited turnovers.

~K

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

reply to Kurupt

My assumptions were based that we would play the same D as last week.

I sure just hope they don’t, they NEED (as you point out) to play press.

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I totally disagree. Favre isn’t the kind of guy who is content to dink and dunk all day. He is going to try and make those big plays down the field, even when it isn’t in his onw team’s best interest. And that is exactly why a conservative defense will work better against Favre.

by kaisertown on Oct 31, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Will Fewell suddenly grow a set of stones this week?

 Or will we see the same anemic pass rush, little to no press coverage, and no idea of how to stop the short passing game. The AZ blue print has been emailed around the NFL, and you can bet the Jets got a copy. If Fewell doesn’t prove me wrong, the Bills will lose at home and the air will really start to come out of the balloon. If Fewell earns his money, then we have a fighting chance.

by Joe P. on Oct 31, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

still my OPINION

and i’m sticking to it

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok i'll change

2 TD’s and 1 pick? more realistic?

Royal fumbles on last play of the game, Revis runs it back, lee catches him, strips the ball and then Walker runs 98 yards for the game winning TD.

ITS GONNA RULE!!!!!

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would retire from being a football fan if that happened. It’s as close to “going out on top” as we’re likely to get.

And then I’d un-retire like Brett in time for the ’09 season.

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by Brian Galliford on Oct 31, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

That would be hilarious. Especially if it came true. which would never ever ever happen. i’d love to see that though…..as long as we win

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

must

overcome. That’s where the fans come in, and I know we will give it everything we got on Sunday. I just hope the Bills give us something for cheer for.

The whole key to this game is the Bills offense playing mistake free. If we do that, and make Brett Favre beat us, I know our defense can force him into making tight throws that can be picked. But if the offense turns the ball over it will be tough to overcome that. I hope the offense shows discipline, runs more PA, and picks up chunks of yardage. I want to see a great offense on Sunday. Its time to turn the corner Turk & Trent. A full 4 quarter game offensively.

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Oct 31, 2008 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Offensive TO's

I think we’ll probably be o.k. with offensive turnovers. DJ typically gets his guys to understand what went wrong the week prior and not to make the same mistakes. I think this will continue this week.

Turk and Trent need to get at least 3 TD’s. If my memory serves me correct, Trent hasn’t thrown more than 1 TD in a game yet, which isn’t good.

I’m more worried about our D-Line getting pressure. If they do, we will be o.k., if they don’t, it’ll be a tough game to win.

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

The Jets have 24 sacks this year and they get them from a variety of players. The Bills need to protect Trent so that he can take care of the ball. The Bills might have to win the turnover battle to win this game.

by kaisertown on Oct 31, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

MATCH UP 2

Peters has not been playing well, and had a bad game in Miami…I think the only advantage may be that Peters will want to bounce back. I like the Bills at home and I think that adds to our success in these matchups. (Bull crap we gave away a divisional home game to Toronto)

The Bills CAN win every game

by killascript on Oct 31, 2008 2:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree on Peters

Hopefully he HAS been reading his press clippings.

Because the media and fan sites around are bashing him.

I for one think he is doing a good job. A few errors in key moments is why he’s getting bad recognition. Justifiably so, because you need your play makers in key moments. i think he’ll be o.k.

by J2 on Oct 31, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Peters seems to have lapses this year...

that I don’t recall seeing last year. This is definitely not a Pro Bowl year for him.
He claimed in his interview on bb.com this week that there were 68 offensive plays and he dominated Joey Porter on 67 of them. Watching the film, that’s not quite correct. He did hold him in check for most of the game, but there were at least two plays – the sack and the safety – where Peters seemed to take him on for a crunch or two, then turn him loose. I’ll bet that happened on more than two plays, too.
It’s almost as if he thinks Trent has let the ball go, so it’s okay to let the rusher go.
Is this Peters’ responsibility, or is it Trent holding the ball too long? It’s like somebody’s timing is off.

by Defensewinsgames on Oct 31, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

gotta blitz

I haven’t seen a replay of phish game, but I don’t recall getting burned on a blitz. Rather it seemed that it was the only way we brought heat and that it worked. Gotta be more clever with Favre given his arm, but also gotta blitz to disrupt his rythym and knock the old guy down. Peters will be fine…just give the rock to Lynch off left tackle.

by sestak on Oct 31, 2008 8:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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