Has Bills RB Lynch regressed in sophomore campaign?
Entering the 2008 NFL regular season, one thing was obvious when it came to the Buffalo Bills: the team would live or die with Trent Edwards, but its heartbeat would be Marshawn Lynch. Despite his concussion, Edwards has lived up to the billing; he's the league's eleventh-highest rated passer (93.5), has orchestrated three fourth-quarter comeback wins, and the Bills are 4-0 in games he's finished. (How's that for tweaking a stat to fit your priorities?)
Lynch, however, hasn't been as potent as anticipated. Yes, he started hot - he scored four touchdowns in the team's first three games - but other than scoring and receiving, Lynch has seen decline in every important statistical category. Now, it's catching up to his team. The good news: it's not necessarily Lynch's fault. But it could be a festering problem as the team moves forward
Touches, yardage, involvement down
Lynch hasn't been perfect when he's had the ball, but it's easy to tell he's still the same player. No running back fights harder for yardage after contact other than the possible exception of Cowboys star Marion Barber III. He's versatile, he's dynamic, and he's the consummate teammate. He is, in reality, an elite player. Yet his stat line leaves a lot to be desired to this point:
His rushing yardage per game is down by 20 yards. Lynch led the league in 2007 with 21.5 rushes per game; he currently ranks tenth in that category at 18.4 rushes. His 3.6 yards-per-carry average is rather mediocre, even considering the fact that a large percentage of that average comes of his own accord. Lynch never once rushed for fewer than 60 yards in his rookie season; he has three such games in '08 (in all three of Buffalo's road games). Even with Lynch far more involved as a receiver - his 15 receptions to date nearly equal the 18 he hauled in as a rookie - his effectiveness has largely been muted.
It hasn't been pretty. Rest assured, however, that Marshawn isn't the problem.
Run blocking, bad luck and a dash of impatience
We've all become aware of Buffalo's issue running the ball. Despite having one of the league's biggest offensive lines (average weight: 332.2 pounds), Buffalo's run blocking has been borderline awful. It's been effective for stretches, to be certain; there's a good reason that three of Lynch's four scores came from 11 yards out or further. But the inconsistency in blocking up front - even with the rapid improvement of Edwards and the passing attack - is easily the team's biggest concern moving forward.
Even when the blocking has been there, penalties and miscues have negated the big plays. Lynch had two 20-plus yard runs called back by penalty in the win over St. Louis alone. The plays are there; they're few and far between, and the lack of consistency has caused the Bills to abandon the run at times, and it's been tough for them to establish balance early in football games.
The line can only shoulder most of the blame, however. Turk Schonert deserves some; we tend to forget that he's a rookie offensive coordinator, so the fact that he goes through spells in which he's pressing the action comes off as more surprising than it should be. Schonert is a smart play-caller, but there are times when he gets a little too cute, and forgets to play smash-mouth football. Lynch himself gets a smidgeon of blame as well. There are moments when Lynch seems so desperate for contact, or to make a big play, that he gets a bit impatient. His counterpart, Fred Jackson, has been a more patient runner, which is why he's averaging 4.2 yards per carry to date. Lynch needs to be a bit more patient.
Run game must improve
One thing is clear: if the Buffalo Bills fancy themselves legitimate playoff contenders - heck, they can shoot higher than that at this point; they're 4-1, after all - then they're going to need to be more balanced offensively. That starts with the line, and it ends with Lynch. Marshawn deserves credit because he's still Buffalo's offensive player despite the increased role for Jackson and the declining stat lines. Lynch is a great teammate - he's embraced Jackson's role, and the two form a formidable duo.
So has Lynch regressed? Hardly. The circumstances around him have changed, and like the rest of his team, Lynch is adjusting. There's not much to complain about with Lynch at this point - it's still quite clear that he's one of Buffalo's brightest young stars. More folks are going to realize it when the Bills iron out their run blocking woes. When winter rolls around and the Bills start playing smash-mouth football, Marshawn will make his mark.
Comments
O Line really needs some work
Great points Brian… Marshawn really needs to break out for this offense to start “clicking”.
Regards, ChaosthePitbull
by chaosthepitbull on
Oct 8, 2008 8:08 AM EDT
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RUNNING GAME
We won’t see an improved running game until Melvin Fowler is out at Center. He is constantly in the backfield and Brad Butler sometimes looks like he’s the culprit because he has to try and help Fowler all the time. When Peters came back I voted for him to sit and get into game shape before putting him into the lineup. He has shined at times but he’s not even close to where he was at last year. The up and down is hurting the running game not to mention the passing game. I wish that Chambers could learn to play Center, he’s looked good when called upon and he’s a strong, young and very large man to deal with big DT’s.
by NCbillzfan55 on
Oct 8, 2008 9:34 AM EDT
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I agree we need a new center,
and like you idea of trying Chambers. But, we had the same crappy Center last year and the line played better. Peters play has gone from top shelf to the dented can bin, and the rest of the line has not been able to perform consistently. This smacks of poor O-line coaching to me. I hope they get it together soon.
I got no problem with Lynch. He plays hard and is a happy kid. As far as I can see, his performance gave him no reason to be hanging his head.
by Joe P. on
Oct 8, 2008 10:11 AM EDT
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What about bringing in LeCharles Bentley ?
I agree with you that our center position is really weak and needs to be addressed in next years draft but a quick fix for this year could be to bring in LeCharles Bentley. What really is the risk? We have the money, if he works out we won’t need to use a draft pick, and when this guy is healthy he was one of the top centers in the league.
by keysh67 on
Oct 9, 2008 9:45 AM EDT
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I don't know much about him
But bringing him in for a visit and having the Docs check him out couldn’t hurt.
by Joe P. on
Oct 9, 2008 1:21 PM EDT
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How about we stop running it right up the gut 5-10 times a game? There’s no need to run behind Fowler as it’s a guaranteed unsuccessful play. Sure, it can keep the D honest to run up the middle some, but when there’s no chance for success, is that beneficial?
Isn’t it possible that Lynch has regressed though? I don’t really think he has, but I’m also not sure he’s gotten any better. No knock on him, but many of us were expecting him to take a major step forward this year. Maybe that will come with better blocking, maybe not.
One thing is for certain, if the run blocking doesn’t improve, we have no chance to have a good run game.
~K
by Kurupt on
Oct 8, 2008 10:03 AM EDT
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Better run blocking can’t help but make Lynch even better. He gets quite a few yards on his own efforts right now, how would he do behind a line that is consistently good at run blocking? You would think his stats would be improved.
This just underlines the fact that more work needs to be done on the offensive line, talent and execution both.
Get the Bills back to the big game!
by Blitz on
Oct 8, 2008 12:57 PM EDT
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Exactly…the situation has definitely changed since last year. Lynch is being utilized in a slightly different way. While he is getting less touches this year, the combo of Lynch and Jackson is only getting one less touch per game (24.2 vs 25.1 per game last year). But the duo is averaging 1 rushing TD per game so far, compared to last year where they averaged 0.5 TD per game.
As we all know, there is also the difference in the passing game. This year, the duo is averaging 3 receptions per game more than they accumulated last year. Even though their receiving yards per game have decreased, the flexibility of both running backs is being more well-utilized.
So no, Lynch’s game hasn’t necessarily regressed, but Turk’s new offense is 1.) utilizing both dynamic running backs, and 2.) throwing the ball more, because it actually can.
by JayAreZee on
Oct 8, 2008 10:51 AM EDT
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I disagree...
With less touches his average yards per touch should increase and it went down. Last year teams could key in on him because we were so predictable whereas this year the offensive play-calling is much better and should benefit Lynch which it clearly has not. Lynch is clearly getting every yard on his own and should not be blamed. It is the poor run-blocking that is clearly to blame and I agree with NCbillzfan55 – Fowler is the weakest link that needs to be replaced. Look at the production that Tennesse get out of Mawae, this guy is one of the smartest/physical centers out there and they have one of the best smash mouth running football teams out there.
As I mentioned before, we should bring in LeCharles Bentley for a visit
by keysh67 on
Oct 9, 2008 9:54 AM EDT
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