Predictable Bills play calling inexplicably continues
Warning: what you are about to read is not news. It may be to the Buffalo Bills - specifically, offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild Turk Schonert - but it's not news. Not to anybody who pays the slightest bit of attention, at least. I mean, for the love of the football gods, we talked about this exact topic two weeks ago.
The Buffalo Bills are painfully predictable on offense. In other news, the Earth is round, dinosaurs are dead and Ralph Wilson is really, really old.
We can talk ad nauseum about Buffalo's problems offensively. Most of them have to do with what has been awful offensive line play; a few center around QB Trent Edwards, as well. I'm of the opinion, however, that it's close to impossible to accomplish anything when an opponent - a professional, National Football League opponent - can reasonably guess what's coming from Edwards and the offense 91 percent of the time. Yeah - it's that bad, based on statistical evidence from Sunday's 20-10 loss to the New England Patriots. The facts...
Pass plays at New England
Buffalo called 25 pass plays on Sunday. 23 of them came from the shotgun formation; that means that on 92 percent of his passes, Edwards is in the gun. The two plays that came from under center represent 33 percent of Buffalo's "unpredictable" offensive play-calling in New England; the other two-thirds were split between ill-timed draws and the Wildcat formation. More on that in a moment.
Of the 23 shotgun pass attempts, three of them came on 3rd and 2 yards or fewer to go. The Bills did not run a single play-action pass all day, nor did they dial up a single traditional screen pass.
Run plays at New England
Buffalo called 20 run plays on Sunday. 16 of them came with Edwards lined up under center; two were shotgun draws (one of which was negated by a New England penalty), and two more came out of the Wildcat formation. The Wildcat plays are being counted as obvious runs, because let's face it - not even Miami throws consistently out of that formation. That means 18 of 20 (90 percent) Bills run plays fall under the "predictable" category.
The complete picture
Of the 45 plays the Bills dialed up in New England, a whopping 41 of them - 91.1 percent - were as predictable as a pro wrestling match. 91.1 percent of the time on Sunday, we could quite easily predict what the Bills were about to do offensively in terms of run and pass. If we knew what was coming, what the hell did Bill Belichick know?
I laughed out loud on numerous occasions as I re-watched the film on this game. Watching the Bills' offense is like behind handed the winning numbers for the lottery. It's laughable knowing what's coming - until, that is, you realize how incredibly pathetic it is.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this predictability is, in fact, the root of all of Buffalo's issues offensively. 92 percent of the time, opponents can blitz without gambling and confuse Edwards with complex coverages. 90 percent of the time, opponents can stack the box with Edwards under center and not worry about getting beat deep. Want to blame Edwards? Want to blame the offensive line? Feel free. Nothing is going to change, however, until the Bills start getting a bit more creative offensively.
Anyone know somebody "famous"?
Spread the word, Bills fans. Know Turk Schonert-Fairchild? Print this article off and slap him across the face with it. Know someone in the "traditional" media? Politely request that they stop asking stupid questions and explore this one. This needs to be discussed on a much broader level than it currently is. The vast majority of Buffalo's issues during this losing streak of theirs can be traced back to this singular problem.
We're just lowly bloggers, after all. What do we know, right? Apparently nothing - except what ails the Buffalo Bills, that is.
Buffalo Rumblings is not responsible for physical, mental or possession-related side effects produced by this article. Reader must digest this information at their own risk - if indigestion is not a direct side effect, that is. Possible side effects include - but are not limited to - nausea, vomiting, exploding brains, fits of rage, and/or broken computer monitors.
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Great Post once again Brian!
I have tickets to next Monday’s game and I actually am not really looking forward to it because I am completely discouraged. When Marshawn got 7y on the first play of the game and then on 2nd & 3 he lined up in the shotgun I was upset. Then on 3rd down he lines up in the gun again… All I can say is that Turk is taking the fun out of the games.
I want to see them run the ball 60-70% of the time, establish it – even if it means going 3 & out a few times. ML gets better the more he carries he gets and we have great weapons to exploit defenses that come up to support the run. Our identity in Buffalo is power running and running play-action off of it. We are not, I repeat we are not a pure West Coast Passing team. Our weather does not support that type of play. So Turk has to come to grips with our brand of football and find ways to feed Marshwan the ball successfully.
This is spot on.
I’ve long preached the KISS method. But this is even ridiculous by rookie playbooks. Unless you are dominating at one particular facet of offense, you cannot be successful by being predictable.
Turk’s honeymoon ended quick. I wonder what may have been different if they entered the season with a “simple” offense.
Why can’t they run ot of the shotgun? Why can’t they run a pass play with Trent directly under center?
Why can’t they run ot of the shotgun? Why can’t they run a pass play with Trent directly under center?
They can and they have. Just not recently. And no, I have no idea why not.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Only three letters need to be said
W O W !!!!! I knew we were predicable, but this blog is ridiculous…
BILLS RULE !
by chaosthepitbull on Nov 11, 2008 5:56 AM EST reply actions
WELL DONE!
of course the sad part is that figuring out and writing this was probably so easy Mr. Galliford did it while brushing his teath before going to bed!!
I commented yesterday on the obvious run play where Hardy motions back towards the line and Lynch tries to run off the left guard again. that’s a play they have run all year and it is always good for between 1 and -4 yards, they should practice that some more so they can"execute " it better!
PATHETIC!!
I actually put it together about 45 minutes before Heroes aired last night. (What an awesome episode it was.)
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
predictability
It really is amazing. I mean, when Brian pointed it out 2 weeks ago I have been keenly aware of it and am shocked that the trend continues.
Being a Bills fans who absolutely is addicted to Bills’ football especially during this 17 week regular season, I can’t help but be depressed this week. The MNF game can’t come soon enough, yet at the same time, if it is more of what I’ve seen the last 2 weeks, it is only going to tick me off even more and ruin my quality of life.
I mean going into the NE game, you just knew it was going to be ugly and it was. This MONDAY, we need an atmosphere as close to last year’s MNF game as possible. Our FANS have to CARRY this team to a WIN on monday. God, I hope that is enough.
MARVelous
Holy predictability, Batman!
Nice work, Brian. Thanks for doing this.
This is absolutely disgusting. The predictability of this offense is unacceptable for a pop warner team. Hell, Navy thinks this offense is too predictable.
I can’t believe I’m about to type this but….I miss Steve Fairchild. There. I said it. Ridiculous? Yes, I know. But it’s no lie.
Oh, what it would be like to be the defensive quality control coach for the Bills’ opponents.
“Hey, coach Crennel, when the Bills line up in shotgun, they pass 92 percent of the time, and when they line up under center, they run 90 percent of the time.”
“Don’t be ridiculous. That’s not possible.”
“No, seriously. Look, I’ve got the stats right here.”
“Wow! Even I can take advantage of that.”
I wonder if Turk is this predictable in his social life. Does he pack the same lunch everyday? Same vacation spot every year? Does he listen to the same two songs over and over again while sitting in the same recliner reading the same book he’s read for the past 10 weeks? Does he wear the same shirt to work every Tuesday?
“Well, it’s Tuesday, so that must mean Turk is wearing his navy blue, nike golf shirt with his gray dockers. Hey, whaddya know?”
Turk’s playcalling is more predictable than a Rocky ending. I don’t think a little spontaneity is too much to ask from an NFL offensive coordinator.
Hey, don’t knock Rocky! :)
I definitely don’t miss Fairchild, because this offense is still capable. Fairchild’s offense wasn’t even that.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, it’s no knock on Rocky. Rocky movies are supposed to be predictable AND they still work when predictable (i.e. get me fired up and/or choked up watching them). NFL offenses on the other hand are not supposed to be predictable nor do they work when predictable.
LOL… it’s like I can read your mind. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe not the same shirt
But right now, I bet they all have the same ring around the collar.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 11, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
It sucks
There has just been nothing innovative in the last three weeks. Why would anyone do that? Its like Turk is playing Madden out there, but instead of using plays over and over cause they work, he is running the same plays that don’t. It is ridiculous. Unless, this is all part of master plan, to now break out new stuff for the rest of the year? Yeah, right
The Bills CAN win every game
Ah, but this is all a setup...
Next week, the Bills will run 90% of the time from shotgun, and pass 90% of the time when Edwards is under center. It will completely confuse the defense!
New England runs out of shotgun a lot. Their offensive blueprint is a thing of beauty, even without Brady.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly the opposite of what the Pats do.
This morning’s Rochester paper has Trent saying he was confused much of the game because the Pats disguised their plays so effectively and they continuously gave us different looks. What a difference in offensive philosophy! The predictability seems so obvious that it’s right under Brian’s (and now our) nose(s).
I also have wondered why those invited to a Bills press conference don’t ask more obvious questions. Does Sullivan or any other beat reporter ever ask any hard questions? Does anybody else SEE?
everything goes better with bacon
I agree, reporters with no kahoonas!
I would like to know why after gaining 7y on the first run of the game that they decided to go to the shotgun twice in a row? Establishing the run means that you will run the ball often at the beginning of the game in order to get them to start stacking the box. With 7y on the first run, why not go right back to it?
What aggravates me the most is that Marshawn Lynch has more heart than 10 guys put together. He is always falling forward and dragging & kicking for more yardage. He almost never fumbles the ball so it seems to me that when you claim as a coach that you need to address the turnover issues, maybe you want to start by looking at your play-calling.
Sullivan is not the guy to be singling out – he’s perceived as the “most negative” of Buffalo-area sports reporters, but I find him to be the fairest.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Don't know the others. Sorry.
It is reported on the Zone today that Chris Brown asked a good question (not said what question) to DJ and was shot down. Sure woiuld like to know the question he asked.
everything goes better with bacon
The question was
“Why can a 5 year old come up with a better game plan, and when will you hire said 5 year old?”
Fear the mighty helmet wearing gopher, he is coming for your soul....
Brownie’s too good of a guy to have the stones to ask that of a member of the organization that employs him.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Predictable plays
the coachs make it predictable so we can win the call the play on nfl.com easier
by The Buffalonian on Nov 11, 2008 10:35 AM EST reply actions
I…I’m…but…professionals…predictable…how…extension?
This went from being a great season to be a fan to “here we go again” waaaaaaay too fast. Great work Brian- my head would have gone through a wall about .00001 seconds after figuring those numbers out. My JV football team eight years ago ran four plays out of five formations (one of them was run from two formations) and was less predictable than that. Oi.
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Nov 11, 2008 12:08 PM EST reply actions
I had a beer after I wrote up the article. Beer calms me down. It’s all good.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
For a while Brian
Just watch the liver buddy
Fear the mighty helmet wearing gopher, he is coming for your soul....
I said a beer. My liver is thriving.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
How long have you been a fan? Your liver should be shot!
And if it isn’t…well, more power to you, and would you mind sharing whatever it is that helps you cope? Haha.
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Nov 11, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
Question
Know Turk Schonert-Fairchild? Print this article off and slap him across the face with it.
Do I have to print it, or can I just hit him with my monitor?
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Does that mean you know him? :)
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
If I did I’m sure you would have known it by now.
I’m sure with technology today I could find his residence easy enough.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Yeah, but that could lead to an arrest or a similar inconvenience.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Ahhh, but not if you just stuff 50+ copies into his mailbox
And into any other location easily reachable by the front door that can hold articles.
Fear the mighty helmet wearing gopher, he is coming for your soul....
Best Post
Brian, by far the best post of the year so far. You couldn’t be any more right. I don’t see why the coaches can’t realize they aren’t doing a good job and need to shake things up. We need more draws to Marshawn, way more play action, more pitches, more bubble screens, and we need to go deep to stretch the defense. With our d, we need to stop playing like we are afraid of giving up a bomb. Zone blitz, blitz corners and play bump and run. I’ll take one bomb to Braylon Edwards if that means we aggressively jump 2 routes cause we are in bump and run and pick them off. We play wayyyyyyyyyyyyy to scared offensively and defensively. What happened to the play calling from games 1-6? And lastly, though many “experts” and even some fans think we are done. These 3 game stretch now has become the most critical, even though it seems like we say that every week. If we are 8-4 going into Toronto against Miami we have a good shot at the playoffs. Make the changes, good things will happen
I’ll take 6-4 first… and thanks.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
What wasn't predictable:
No one could have predicted going into this season that the Bills would play an entire game without either a single RB screen or Play Action formation. Wow.
Given these stats and that Bellicheck had to know what to do, i’m mildly impressed the Bills did as well as they did. Bellicheck should be embarrassed for not winning 56-10.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 11, 2008 1:11 PM EST reply actions
Analysis of Pats or Others' "Predictability"
Hey Brian- would it be possible to do an analysis of the Pats and compare their “predictability”? As you know stats and numbers are often useless if they don’t have a point of comparison, or a bench mark for what they are being measured against. I have a feeling that we’ll still be saying the same thing, but 91% vs. 80% is much less alarming than just saying 91%…
I’ll keep that in mind for next week; I’d love to help you out in regards to this past game, but after watching the film last night, I got really pissed and nuked it from the DVR. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
mmmmm Labatt Blue
How I love that beer now that I can only find it in one grocery store in my area….
~K
Follow up
Yea definitely. I jumped the gun. We need to stop worrying about what everyone else is doing and win week by week. Though we dont have all-pros across the field, we have the players to win. Just call the right mixture of plays. Great Post, like the Godfather stuff too.
Ok, I've racked my brain
trying to come up with a nickname for Turk. TS-F-M (Turk Schonert-Fairchild-Mularkey) just doesn’t roll off the tongue and sounds like a cheesy radio station.
I think I’ve come up with a rather fitting one. OTB. And this has nothing to do with Off-Track Betting. I don’t think Turk is a degenerate gambler.
Instead, it stands for Original Tecmo Bowl. You know, the late 80’s perfection from Nintendo. In the game, each team only had 4 plays, 2 runs and 2 passes. Sound familiar? Only a couple of formations, just like the Bills O. When the D calls the same play as the O, a complete jailbreak would occur resulting in a big loss. Kind of like how a D is able to audible to stop what we’re doing now because shotgun=pass and under center=run.
Maybe TSB (Tecmo Super Bowl) would work a little better as the playbook is a tad bit deeper, but I like OTB for now since we see the SAME plays over and over, ones that are so predictable.
This predictability is one of the reasons our O has started looking like the same old garbage. With the D knowing EXACTLY what’s coming, they simply audible to stop what we’re doing. This may also help to explain some of our OL struggles….
~K
Makes sense
shy the O line is struggling as well. If the D knows what you know, then you are in for a long day
The Bills CAN win every game
I actually prefer TSB, if only because it includes his initials.
I don’t think Turk is a degenerate gambler.
What on earth could possibly have given you that impression? :)
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Wish Turk WAS a degenerate gambler who had money on the Bills for the Win on the Over, kinda like Pete Rose
At least then you would see him pulling all kinds of crazy s#$t out to get the win with a ton of points no matter what. Our record may not be any better, but it would be fun to watch.
Fear the mighty helmet wearing gopher, he is coming for your soul....
Once again, Brian
Thanks for writing down what we’re seeing in the games. I’m quite frankly surprised at the lack of creativity/balance in recent games from the Bills’ offense. What’s up with that? I expected more out of Turk and Alex Van Pelt than this. Maybe it’s sleep deprivation…
Get the Bills back to the big game!
Alex Van Pelt really has nothing to do with it – he’s the QB coach. If you’re looking for offensive quality control, that’s Nathaniel Hackett.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just looking for offensive quality, period
We haven’t seen much of that in the execution or the game plan in recent weeks, and I have to wonder why. If we can see it as fans, what about the coaching staff?
Get the Bills back to the big game!
Thanks. Prerequisites: DVR, beer, and the ability to count. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
In this case extra beer was required.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Ha, nah, only one. Extra beer will certainly be required if I’m writing this article again next Monday evening.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 11, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
The ability to count?!?
There goes my dream of breaking down game film….Curses!
Also, oh how I wish I could afford a DVR. Le sigh.
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Nov 11, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
How
How do we know Edwards can throw from behind center. His 4th quarter drives are usually in shotgun. Maybe he can’t read D’s unless he is in shotgun and therefore it is a good reason why they dont use playaction.
It may be a reason, but no reason is a good reason to not use play-action.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 12, 2008 7:40 AM EST up reply actions
you can’t run play action when you don ’t run the ball. running the ball 20x last game is pathetic. no defense will ever fall for the play action running the ball that infrequently.
by the way, great analysis Brian, your spot on with the predictability of TS offense. seems that he has hit the preverbial “rookie wall”.

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