Measuring Trent Edwards' growth and maturation
Back in July, I wrote a piece examining the statistical trends of some of the NFL's best current quarterbacks. This was done in an effort to statistically measure Buffalo Bills QB Trent Edwards' growth in his first full season on the job; the exercise provided a solid metric for measuring said growth statistically. Two groups of quarterbacks were chosen - "elite" and "comparison" - and with some not-so-tricky math, it was determined that we would see Edwards' numbers grow in certain areas. This was done in an attempt to gauge whether Edwards would become an "elite" quarterback or merely a good one.
Alas, such projections go beyond stats. But we'll talk about the stats first.
Edwards Elite vs Edwards Good
When the numbers were finalized back in July, statistical trends of several current quarterbacks dictated that, in order to properly define Edwards as potentially elite or potentially OK after his second year in the league, we'd have to differentiate between the following two projected stat lines...
Edwards "Elite": 57% completion percentage, 3310 yards, 18 TD, 13 INT
Edwards "Good": 57% completion percentage, 3,010 yards, 14 TD, 13 INT
There isn't much differentiation between the two stat lines, obviously, so there's clearly more going into the formula than we accounted for back in July. That was by design. Currently, Edwards is on pace to finish the 2008 season with the following numbers:
Edwards Projected: 67% completion percentage, 3,280 yards, 12 TD, 12 INT
Unless Edwards gets hot, he's looking like he's pretty on target for the "good" comparison, though he's much higher than anticipated in the completion percentage area. Take from it what you will. Considering the defenses the Bills face over the final seven games, I wouldn't be shocked to see Edwards fall somewhere between "good" and "elite" - if Turk Schonert recovers some of his early-season play-calling magic.
The "Intangibles"
Clearly, numbers aren't everything. If they were, Drew Bledsoe would be considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. But "great" quarterbacks have great intangibles - that lovely word that's thrown around so loosely these days. Edwards isn't lacking in this department, either.
Set aside the stats. Set aside Edwards' poor play in recent weeks, in which he's been sacked, thrown interceptions or fumbles more times than most of us have the stomach to recall. Quarterbacks go through rough patches, especially when they're so young; even if you inexplicably hate Edwards, you can't deny that one fact. Edwards has the make-up to work through it.
By "make-up", of course, I refer to his work ethic. I refer to the fact that despite the team's recent struggles, he remains, unequivocally, the leader of this team. Nobody's turned on him, as we've seen in years past. He may bore some of you with his Dick Jauron-esque responses at the podium, but I like that in a quarterback. Mike Vanderjagt comments aside, when has Peyton Manning ever given anything but a snoozer interview? Edwards hits the film room hard, the practice field harder, and he's tougher than we gave him credit for prior to this season. He's taken a pounding, but it was only a concussion that caused him to miss time.
Sound Off
Clearly, the kid's got to play more before we can make any claims about his status level as an NFL quarterback. You just can't do it after 18 starts, with a 10-8 record. But that's why we're here - to guess. Opinions are sure to differ - I still find it hard to believe there's an anti-Edwards establishment in this fan base, after all this franchise has been through - but that's why this place exists.
As for me, I'm choosing to believe that Edwards is on his way to a good career. I sincerely doubt he'll ever hit "elite" status, but his numbers aren't terrible for such a young player - particularly in the completion percentage department - and he's a leader. He leads by example. He's positive. He's tough. He rarely gets rattled (it's happened more frequently of late). I still steadfastly remain on the Trent Edwards bandwagon. There's still a lot to like.
If you're there with me, or if you're hopping off of that train, now's the time to make your declarations. Go.
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31 comments
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Comments
On Board
I’m on board with you for one simple reason. The blitz. He is effective against the blitz which is very tough for young QB’s. That is why you see teams rush 3 or 4 and then go dime. If we can establish any sort of rushing attack that makes teams respect our run game, get 8 in the box, his numbers will look much better.
It all hinges on the run game. The kid can play
by J2 on Nov 14, 2008 9:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's a gamer!
I like the kids tuffness and his demeanor. I’m sure he knows that he would be playing better if the offense line gave him better protection and could open up holes for the backs but you never see him bash them publicly. I would hope he’s encouraging them in the locker room to play better but the sign of a good leader is that their also looking for ways to elevate their own play, and Trent is always doing this. I say he’s the future!
by LuBAR on Nov 14, 2008 9:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
In Trent We Trust
By “make-up”, of course, I refer to his work ethic. I refer to the fact that despite the team’s recent struggles, he remains, unequivocally, the leader of this team. Nobody’s turned on him, as we’ve seen in years past.
I’ve had numerous debates on the NFL QB position. Whenever the debate comes up, I find 3 traits that I believe a QB that wants to be successful needs to have:
1) accuracy – this is most important physical tool. Under pressure, tight windows, you must be accurate
2) Toughness….take hits, not get injured and always play….the top-tier QB’s do not get injured and they ALWAYS get up quickly no matter how bad the hit hurts. Trent does that extremely well
3) Has the RESPECT of his teammates – Trent’s play has earned him that barring these last 3 weeks
In summary, I believe Trent has the entire package. He is tall, strong, can make all the throws. The only time I started to doubt him was the over-throw to Evans last week for the pick. That’s the first time I have seen a relatively easy throw be completely inaccurate from Edwards. That said, this kid works, like Brian said, numerous stories I’ve heard about him he is always watching film, working with his WR’s and trying to get better. I think if we had a TE and WR #2 that could develop a rapport with him, we could have an offense that will be a top 10 offense for years to come. Of course, we need those pieces first so don’t jump on me for that statement. But a pass-catching TE would do WONDERS for this kid. Look at last night’s game. Keller/Watson were the keys to that game.
To sum up. I love this kid. I believe the talent around him has let him down. No run game, Hardy has struggled to develop and Reed has been out. Fix those things surrounding him, and we will see the “elite” Trent Edwards before the season is up.
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Nov 14, 2008 9:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
And he never complains
He just keeps trying to elevate himself, knowing that better play from him can help elevate a mediocre bunch! Gotta respect that.
by LuBAR on Nov 14, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with all your points
Trent is the real thing
by keysh67 on Nov 14, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The only thing wrong with Edwards is the O-line
Fix the line and the QB and RBs will look much better. Lets hope the Bills fix the line before they ruin Edwards.
by Joe P. on Nov 14, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Im on board with Trent.........
and with this comment….its spot on….100% the answer
Miss you Kotch......Love you Trent
by norcaliangelsfan on Nov 14, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m on the Edwards train. As a former JP fan, I was much slower than everyone else to jump on the train (“Hi, my name is Jon, and I thought JP Losman was going to be a good quarterback in the NFL.” “Hi Jon”) . Of course, I think some people dove on the train thinking it was the Acela Express to super bowl victories, MVPs, pro bowls, etc., and it now appears it’s more likely the Long Island Railroad with plenty of stops and starts along the way. (I’m not sure if that analogy makes sense to anyone else, but it makes sense to me – and that’s all that matters).
Anyway, I like Edwards development. Again, I think some people got sucked in real early and started proclaiming Edwards to be the next Jim Kelly, which at this point, is obviously extremely premature. Might he reach that point someday? Certainly. He has the physical tools as well as the mental tools (something JP severely lacked) to become a very good, if not great quarterback in this league. Oh, and he doesn’t sound like a 12 year old girl when he talks. So, that’s a bonus.
As a two year pro, with only 18 starts under his belt, Edwards has shown some exceptional promise. He has some ways to go, but I think his intelligence and work ethic will allow him to continue to improve. Of course, that all depends on our line’s ability to keep him vertical long enough that he can improve. His most valuable tool resides in his head and getting it bounced off the turf every other play isn’t going to help him any.
by thatguy34 on Nov 14, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also, in my haste to get my response posting without my boss noticing that I’m not doing any work, I forgot to mention another point.
Far too much pressure is being placed on Trent’s shoulders at this junction in his career. Again, he’s only had 18 starts under his belt. There is no reason the Bills should be putting him in a situation where the success of the organization depends on his ability to lead them to victory every week. He’s a second year pro. He shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense. I’m not sure how this type of pressure is going to affect Trent’s long term development, but in the short term, it’s setting him up for failure (as we’ve seen the last three weeks).
by thatguy34 on Nov 14, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His most valuable tool resides in his head
So… many… jokes…
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 14, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course, that all depends on our line’s ability to keep him vertical long enough that he can improve.
Coulda used that one, too.
by thatguy34 on Nov 14, 2008 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ha, fair point.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 14, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and by the way – I agree with literally everything you said there. Well put.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 14, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NEver good to bet on your QB to become elite
But its never a good iea to completely rule it out either. I just hope for the best
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on Nov 14, 2008 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I really like Trent, though I sometimes question his confidence. He doesn’t always seem willing to make EVERY throw, instead settling for the short check downs. More importantly, he looks shaken these past 3 games and it appears to be effecting his play. He just doesn’t look all that confident and comfortable out there right now. That is something that concerns me.
I’m not sure completion percentage is as telling a stat as intended. We all know that a lot of his passes are the short dumpoffs, which can really inflate the completion percentage. Heck Losman has a 63% completion rate over the past few seasons. It is a good stat, but doesn’t tell everything. I’m more concerned about TD passes, which is something that Trent doesn’t seem capable of throwing a lot of…..
I just want him more in control out there, with more confidence Let’s go Trent, turn this around even if Turk isn’t making it easy….
~K
by Kurupt on Nov 14, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
update
CB on his blog reports that Hardy, Whitner, Royal are all practicing. Butler is a for sure go. Sounds like Reed is a long shot but hasn’t been completely ruled out. I hope if Reed isn’t back this week that he comes back next week cuz we need that 3rd down safety valve for Trent.
Trent hasn’t look poised but the lack of running game, predictable play calling, and lack of options besides Evans have hamstrung him. I think he’ll be alright if he can get one good game on Monday and start snowballing the confidence from there
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Nov 14, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Damn, I was really hoping Royal was gonna be out. Good news on Whitner, but if he’s 90%, he shouldn’t be playing (just ask Terrence McGee and Ted Ginn).
by thatguy34 on Nov 14, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
(edit)..but if he’s NOT 90%, he shouldn’t be playing…
by thatguy34 on Nov 14, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
update
CB lists Hardy, Whitner, Royal as questionable. Butler as probable. Reed as Doubtful and Schobel as OUT.
I’d say being they have 2 more full days to rest, that even Reed has an outside chance of playing. This team needs to get healthy, but more importantly THEY HAVE TO WIN THIS GAME
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Nov 14, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting stats regarding Trent compared to the great ones
I decided to look at the two first seasons of some of the great ones and the results were quite surprising. Because there is such a big discrepancy in the quantity of games played over their two first seasons it’s difficult to use any other indicator but the QB rating. I know its not perfect but it does mean something and for the purpose at hand it is probably a very accurate stat to use.
Unfortunately, what these stats don’t show is the compliment around him. For example, Big ben benefited being on a team that had a top rated defense generating lots of turnovers with short fields and he also had a great OLINE & Running game. So unfortunately it’s impossible to take all those other factors into account. What we do know however is that Trent has had to produce these numbers with a really weak Offensive line, an overall weak running game, a defense that has a very difficult time getting off the field and rarely creates turnovers.
So lets look at where Trent lies amongst some of the great ones:
ROOKY YEAR
Rank Player GS Att Comp PCT Yards TD INT Rating
1 Big Ben 13 295 196 66.4 2621 17 11 98.1
2 Dan Marino 9 296 173 58.4 2210 20 6 96
3 Tom Brady 14 413 264 63.9 2843 18 12 86.5
4 Jim Kelly 16 480 285 59.4 3593 22 17 83.3
5 Joe Montana 1 23 13 56.5 96 1 0 81.1
6 Johnny Unitas 7 198 110 55.6 1498 9 10 74
7 Peyton Manning 16 575 326 56.7 3739 26 28 71.2
8 Trent Edwards 9 269 151 56.1 1630 7 8 70.4
9 Joe Namath 9 340 164 48.2 2220 18 15 68.7
10 Steve Young 5 138 72 52.2 935 3 8 56.9
11 Eli Manning 7 197 95 48.2 1043 6 9 55.4
12 John Elway 10 259 123 47.5 1663 7 14 54.9
Y2
Rank Player GS Att Comp PCT Yards TD INT Rating
1 Dan Marino 16 564 362 64.2 5084 48 17 108.9
2 Big Ben 12 268 168 62.7 2385 17 9 98.6
3 Peyton Manning 16 533 331 62.1 4135 26 15 90.7
4 Johnny Unitas 12 301 172 57.1 2550 24 17 88
5 Joe Montana 7 273 176 64.5 1795 15 9 87.8
6 Trent Edwards 9 245 164 66.9 1845 7 7 86.9
7 Tom Brady 16 601 373 62.1 3764 28 14 85.7
8 Jim Kelly 12 419 250 59.7 2798 19 11 83.8
9 John Elway 14 380 214 56.3 2598 18 15 76.8
10 Eli Manning 16 557 294 52.8 3762 24 17 75.9
11 Steve Young 14 363 195 53.7 2282 8 13 65.5
12 Joe Namath 14 471 232 49.3 3379 19 27 62.6
The above numbers include the three game loosing streak. I continue to think that those last three games were lost because of extremely poor play-calling & extreme predictability which made Trent’s job almost impossible. Nonetheless, he is still sitting at 86.9 rating. It got me to thinking what his numbers were from the six games he played and they were:
2 Trent Edwards (first 6) 6 152 106 70% 1209 5 2 98.8
So if we exclude the last three games from the equasion he then ranks 2nd behind Dan Marino. Furthermore, in those 6 games he was sacked 11 times (152 attempts, so approx 7.5% of the pass attempts) whereas Marino was sacked 13 times in 16 games (564 attempts, so approx 1.9% of the pass attempts). I can’t stop but wonder how bad Marino’s numbers would have been behind a lousy line like ours. So what makes this so impressive is that he accomplished these stats with only 1 quality receiver, no O-Line, no running game, no tight End. Not even the great Tom Brady has ever had to deal with such factors, especially not in his second year!
I don’t know how scientific this analysis is but it sure shows that our guy is pretty dam good. Since before the Bye week we’ve been complaining that the play-calling is way too predictable and that the O-Line really really sucks this year, well even a great QB will eventually start to have problems in those circumstances and I believe that has been the problem the last few weeks.
So in my opinion we have definitely found our franchise QB
by keysh67 on Nov 14, 2008 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
good comparisons
but the bottom line is Trent needs to get the team in the endzone more often.
~K
by Kurupt on Nov 14, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He was doing it twice a game at the beginning of the season. Coupled with efficiency, that’s usually enough. 21 is the magic number, according to the gospel of Papa G.
The team is still averaging over 20 points per game, believe it or not. That’s down about a touchdown of late, but it speaks to our early-season production.
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by Brian Galliford on Nov 14, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but the bottom line is Trent needs to get the team in the endzone more often.
The TEAM needs to get the team in the endzone. Again, this offense cannot place its success entirely on Trent’s shoulders. Unfortunately, they have done that all year. It worked in the beginning of the season so they decided to completely shutdown the rest of the offense and force Trent to make all the plays. He can’t do that. At least not yet. They need to figure out how to establish a run game, how to eliminate look out blocks, and how to stop being incredibly predictable when it comes to playcalling (that last one seems pretty easy to fix).
If they don’t do the above, Trent won’t have an opportunity to put the ball in the end zone.
by thatguy34 on Nov 14, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trent is the leader of the O. It’s his job to guide them down the field and get into the endzone. If that’s 3 rushing TD’s a game and no passing TD’s, so be it. Either way he needs to do a better job overall.
Remember he called an audible on the 3rd and goal early in the Pats game that resulted in a 3 yard Lynch loss. The O needs him to be successful more than just throwing the ball.
~K
by Kurupt on Nov 14, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trent
WILL be a great QB in this league. just as many of you pointed out, he is gonna need some help. take any of the players off that list of ‘the greats" and put them in there with this crew and i would be suprised to see them do any better than edwards has done this year. all i’m saying is… if we can continue t build around trent, give him some damn protection, and supply him with some more weapons, he will be as complete a QB as there is in this league.
by BillsFan119 on Nov 14, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Let me just say one thing.
It’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish.
Let’s see if Monday night’s game leads to a strong finish for Edwards and the Bills.
by NJBillsfan on Nov 14, 2008 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
HERE HERE........
but the start this year has been better than 2-5 (2006) and 1-4 (2007)
so with a good finish like the two years prior…..a winning season can be had…….(no mention of playoffs right now though…maybe in about 3 weeks)
Miss you Kotch......Love you Trent
by norcaliangelsfan on Nov 14, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your half full glass runneth over
Last year the Bills were more successful running the ball and the line did significantly better in pass protection. Without those two things, a late season surge is not an inevitability…just a hope at this point. As I mentioned yesterday, the Bills have to prove themselves to be at least an average football team by defeating the next 4 opponents. The D is improved…they have to be given all of the injuries they sustained last year…so the Bills will be competitive in most games. But if they can’t win against inferior competition when their backs are up against the wall, then they are inferior themselves.
Unfair or not, Trent will have to grow-up quick and will be called upon to make game winning plays. Many 2nd year QB’s have been forced to learn on the job, sometimes at a seemingly premature point in their careers or in the teams development. Right now, Trent is going through the natural learning cycle and I think he’ll be better for it. As bad as the O-line has played, we’re not looking at a David Carr situation here. Hopefully this is more like an Eli Manning scenario. Eventually he will make plays against stiffer competition, but until then we need to be patient. Looking at Brett Favre carve up the Patriots last night, one can see the difference in a QB that can carry the full load and one that cannot. Without the rest of the offense behind him (reliable slot man, 2nd WR, competent TE, O-line, consistent running game), Trent will struggle; just as Matt Cassel would struggle in similar circumstances and excel if the opposite where true. The Bills offense needs to show-up en masse on Monday evening. If so, Trent will be OK.
by NJBill on Nov 14, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agree with everything said here......
great points
Miss you Kotch......Love you Trent
by norcaliangelsfan on Nov 14, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trent is talented enough to make the Bills offense respected in the NFL
I just hope he has the fire in the belly to want to be a great QB in NFL.
by gjv on Nov 14, 2008 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Trent is a franchise QB
I believe that he possesses the most important quality a QB can have: leadership. The team is capable of winning with him at QB. QB may be the most important position, but a competent QB with a good supporting cast is more than capable of winning. He can be trusted to lead, which means he can provide stability. Stability is, I believe, both a cause and an effect of good play. With our QB position solidified we can worry about the positions we’ve neglected or been unlucky with (C, OLB, DE, C, TE).
I do not believe that Kerry Collins is an Elite QB. I do not believe that Matt Cassel is an Elite QB. I do not believe that the Redskins, Bears, or Panthers are led by Elite QBs.
A good QB who can lead is all that we need, and I believe that we have at least that much in Trent. If he takes the next step, great. That would be wonderful. He hasn’t yet. I think he has that potential, but I’m less concerned with potential and more concerned with his present state, which I think is good enough to give the Bills a chance to compete. If the O-line can remember that it could be good (not great, with our C situation, or lack thereof), if Hardy or Johnson can step up/develop, and if the D can develop something resembling a pass rush, then this team can win.
by Hopefulcynic on Nov 15, 2008 4:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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