Some much-needed optimism is filling the BuffaloRumblings blogs this week after a big win in KC and with an upcoming game vs. San Fransisco.  I was going to post this Wednesday but with Thanksgiving, I wanted to get it up early.  I am always the optimist but I caution you, folks, we do not hold our own destiny in our hands.  If the Bills win out they are not guarenteed a playoff spot.  This is why "Who to Root For" becomes so important.

As the race stands now, we need to win out and get some help to guarentee a playoff spot (or every team in front of us could just lose every game and we win a couple...  That'd be a nice change of pace).  I'll do my best to tell you who to root for and against and why.  If I am wrong, I am wrong.  That's what the comments section is for.

Rule #1: Always root for the NFC teams to beat an AFC team

• Detroit over Tennessee (currently 10-1) - This one doesn't really matter to the Bills but it would be fun to watch it on Thanksgiving, wouldn't it???  In theory we can catch them...  Put it this way, it couldn't hurt us if Detroit won.
• St. Louis over Miami (6-5, Win over the Bills) - If Jim Haslett remembers playing in Buffalo,  he will show some pride and squish the proverbial fish for us this week.  The Bills do control their destiny against the Dolphins so this game is not crucial.

Rule #2: AFC upsets help us a lot

Some of the AFC bottom dwellers can help us by pulling off some wins;

• Denver (6-5, game against Bills upcoming) over New York Jets (8-3, win over the Bills) - If we want to win the division, the Dolphins need to beat the Jets Week 17 (barring a New York Mets style collapse by the Jets) and we need to win out.  The loss to the Dolphins will even out the division records (see one of the last paragraphs way down below) giving the Bills a shot.  This game vs. the Broncos doesn't effect the tiebreakers but if the Jets were to lose a couple more times, we could end up with a better record than them which would give us teh division crown.  Bottom line: If we win out, in the process beat the Jets, and then they lose to the Dolphins in Week 17, we win the division.  If the Jets beat the Dolphins, we will need to be a game ahead of them in overall record to be ahead of them.
• Cincinnati (1-9-1) over Baltimore (7-4) - Baltimore (6-3) has a better AFC record than the Bills (4-4) and a loss here would tie us in the overall record and the Conference loss column.  Baltimore plays a tough schedule down the stretch but those are mainly against NFC teams.  This would really help with that pesky AFC record tiebreaker.  A loss here would be huge for us.
• Cleveland (4-7) over Indianapolis (7-4) - While I am loathe to root for the Browns after last Monday Night they could really help us by knocking off the Colts.  They have beaten the Giants and Bills this year so they are certainly capable.  This would tie us with Indy in overall record and knock Indy's stellar AFC record down to 6-3, at least within reach of the Bills for the head to head wild card tiebreaker.  Remember, Indy has a cupacke schedule down the stretch.

Other AFC Games this week:

• Pittsburgh (8-3) over New England (7-4, win over the Bills) - If we assume Pittsburgh clinches their division we can remove them from our thoughts here.  A loss by the Patriots puts us into a tie with them at 7-5 overall.  If the Steelers win here and the Bills win out, they will beat the Pats in the process knocking them out (how sweet would that be?) with a 10-6 record with Buffalo at 11-5.

Games that don't matter to the Bills playoff hopes:

Seattle vs. Dallas, Arizona vs. Philadelphia, Carolina vs. Green Bay, New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, New York Giants vs. Washington, Atlanta vs. San Diego, Kansas City vs. Oakland, Chicago vs. Minnesota, Jacksonville vs. Houston

Implications: (If the games all went this way)

AFC East: 1st NYJ (8-4), 2nd/3rd* Pats (7-5, 5-5 AFC) virtually tied with Bills (7-5, 4-4 AFC), 4th Dolphins (6-6)

AFC North: 1st Pit (9-3), 2nd Ravens (7-5, 6-4 AFC), 3rd Browns (5-7), 4th Cincy (2-9-1)

AFC South: 1st Titans (10-2), 2nd Colts (7-5, 6-3 AFC), 3rd/4th Winner of game between Jags (5-7 or 4-8) and Texans (5-7 or 4-8)

AFC West: 1st Denver (7-5), 2nd Chargers (5-7 or 4-8), 3rd Oakland (4-8 or 3-9), 4th KC (2-10 or 1-11)

AFC Division Winners and seeds: 1st Titans (10-2), 2nd Pittsburgh (9-3), 3rd Jets (8-4), 4th Denver (7-5)

AFC Wild Card Teams: 5th Colts (7-5, 6-3 in AFC, wins over Ravens and Patriots)6th Ravens (7-5, 6-4 in AFC)

Outside Looking In: 7th/8th* Pats (7-5, 5-5 in AFC) virtually tied with Bills (7-5, 4-4 in AFC), 9th Dolphins (6-6)

 * We would be virtually tied with the Pats.  It would come down to who won in Week 17 if both teams won their games between now and the Week 17 showdown.

The Bills need to take care of business with the Niners and get some help this week to be in position in later weeks.  Here is the tiebreaker info to know:  If the Bills end up tied with someone in their division for the division title or the wild card, the first tiebreaker is division record.   That works well for us against New England.  If Miami can upset the Jets Week 17 and then we take care of our business, the entire division ends up with a 3-3 division record.  Then it would move to record vs. common opponents.  Our lone common loss in that tiebreaker is to Arizona.  The Jets lost to San Diego and Oakland, meaning if we ended up tied with them we would knock them out.  New England lost to San Diego.   Miami lost to Arizona and we would have a better overall record than them anyways.  So if we remain tied with New England and Miami it goes to Conference record and if they win out the Bills will have that tiebreaker won.  We will have to wait and see how it all comes together.  Check out the tiebreaking procedures for yourself at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

After spewing tiebreakers at you, one thing is truly important.  The Bills do not control their own destiny.  The Jets, Indy, and Baltimore can keep them out by winning out (even if the Jets lose to the Bills but win their other games).  We need to start supporting some other teams to have any shot here.

Agree or disagree?  Leave a note in the comments section.