Are Bills built for success in Buffalo?
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 8:51 AM EST
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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Heading into the 2008 regular season, Buffalo Bills fans had some concerns about their team. Not surprisingly, most of those concerns centered around starting QB Trent Edwards. Can he finally be the leader of this team? Can he lead this team to the playoffs this year? But perhaps asked most frequently was this question: Can he play well in the cold?
On the whole, Edwards has shown he is far more than capable of landing the Bills' starting quarterback job long-term. At the moment, he's the least of our concerns. The cold weather issue, however, remains a topic yet unexplored this season - and unanticipated weaknesses on Buffalo's roster make the question an even broader one, with perhaps a terrifying answer.
Rushing and defensive worries
It's no secret that Buffalo's biggest offensive problem this season - especially these past few weeks - has been its inability to effectively run the ball. Sure, the Bills have notched rushing touchdowns in seven of their eight games this season, but the team is averaging just 3.6 yards per rush this season, and running lanes have been scarce behind a suddenly terrible offensive line. Marshawn Lynch - widely regarded as, at the very least, one of Buffalo's two legitimate offensive weapons - is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry (he's got 466 rushing yards total) despite six touchdowns. The inability to run has left the Bills largely one-dimensional offensively, and Edwards has started to turn the ball over thanks to the pressure of carrying the team on his shoulders.
Meanwhile, even though Buffalo's defense has fared relatively well stopping the run this season (ranked #12 in the league at just under 99 yards per game), the Bills face some powerful backs over the second half of the season. The team has also struggled to stop the short passing game, a weapon most teams utilize heavily in sloppy or cold weather. The Bills face some efficient quarterbacks and, more importantly, very talented running backs over the second half of the season.
Can't run; could have trouble stopping the run and the short passing game. That's not a recipe for success if you call Buffalo your home city.
Team speed neutralized
In Dick Jauron's offensive and defensive schemes - and, since we're talking about it, the special teams are built this way too - the Bills have put together their personnel with speed as the primary focus. His Tampa 2 defensive scheme is predicated on speed to the football. Turk Schonert's West Coast offense is predicated on controlled throws and utilizes speed to get receivers open and to make plays after the catch.
The bad news? Speed is neutralized by poor weather.
Think about it for a second: how many times did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose in the cold, even during their pre-championship seasons? How many times did the Colts lose in New England? Power football is the name of the game in cold cities; it's why teams like the Giants and Steelers are perpetually competitive. They're physical. They've got the right blueprint. I'm not sure the Bills do.
Don't get me wrong - I love the merits of the West Coast Offense. That offense has turned Edwards into a pretty productive quarterback, and utilizes a lot of weapons. I love the merits of a Cover 2, which kaisertown covered well in this FanPost. But if we're being honest, are these schemes built for success in a city like Buffalo? It's possible. But I have my doubts, and those doubts are magnified by the problems that the Bills have had during the first half of this season.
Here's some irony for you: maybe the fact that the Bills are playing a December game in a dome in Toronto is a good thing. Any scheme works in a dome, particularly Buffalo's. That might not be true at Ralph Wilson Stadium in the snow.
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On D Side of the Ball
Okay complete Pipe Dream here but…
We have Secondary Problems, big time.
One of the best CBs in the game (DeAngelo Hall) just became very available.
I have no idea how it works w/r/t Hall’s contract, what was left over etc.-but could the Bills scoop Hall here and shore up the DB position for the last quarter of the season? It’d probably take him a month or two weeks to get coached up on the playbook-but he’s a great corner and someone would could totally use, no?
There’s a FanPost on this particular subject. I don’t see how Hall, a speed corner, would benefit anything that was discussed in this article.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
No worries. Just wanted to point it out. :)
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Is it me or have we been trying to pound it up the middle?
Seems to me that last year we saw a lot of runs off tackle, away from the center weakness. This year it seems like the majority of the time we are trying to pound it up the middle?? If anyone has stats it would be appreciated.
The line has not changed from last year but yet our ability to run the ball has. Our backfield is actually much better with Jackson instead of Thomas. I know we’ve been complaining of the poor Line play but it was the same last year… I suspect that the play-calling has a lot to do with the problem. Eric Studesville should go back and see what worked well last year cause what he is trying to do this year doesn’t!
I am optimistic that it is just a matter of time before we get the running game tweaked enough to get some level of efficiency going, actually I really expect them to do a lot better this week against NE
I hear a lot of talk about our absent Pass/Rush...
I for one would like to see more of Ellis and Spencer working the RDE position. Ellis was supposedly a pass rush specialist, lets give him some reps to see what he can do. He certainly can’t do worse! I would have like to see them at least make the effort of bringing in KGB for a look but they obviously won’t so we might as well make the best with what we have.
I am very concerned about our LB corp, we lost 3 guys to IR (Crowell, DiGi & Bowen). As a result we have an undersized guy playing the SLB position and the only backup we have is Costanzo (another undersized guy with no experience). This is a huge RISK that should be addressed ASAP! Now that Mitchell is banged up, we could be seeing both Costanzo & Ellisson on at the same time!! I don’t know who is available out there but even an older guy like Junior Seau could be brought in as a Stop-Gap, last I checked he has not yet retired.
What happened to Stroud?
Is it me, or has Stroud been largely absent in recent weeks? I did see him steamroll a guy in the last couple weeks, but is he still commanding as many doubles. It seems like we’d be seeing Kelsay or Williams name called given their inevitable one on one matchups each week. They’ve got to at least see what we can get out of Ellis at some point because the sooner he can get acclimated to the pro game the better in my eyes.
I just have a feeling that the D-line is going to play considerably better this week and hopefully make our blitzes that much less predictable.
The Tampon 2, the Bills version of the Tampa 2,
is not a good scheme for a team that plays outdoors in cold weather in December. If more AFC East teams played in domes, then fine. Sad thing is we had a good defense built for the cold not very long ago. Anyone else miss Pat Williams and Winfield? The Vikes say thank you!
The West Coast offense is a good fit for our passing attack in the weather and our current QB. The WRs should be able to get open just as easily in cold weather. Both O and D need to make those cuts. Call one cut patterns like slants and square in/outs with the ball delivered on time with room for some YAC. That means the WR can’t always run comeback routes! We just need to be able to run the ball. Fewell seems to think we are a power running team with all of the A and B gap runs he calls. The power running game needs a powerful O-line. Right now, we have a powder-puff O-line.
We need to run off tackle more
Like last year.
Turk needs to realize that what ever he & Eric are stubbornly blaming the O-Line for is not working and he needs to adjust to what we have. ‘Cause it ain’t going to change this year so get back to what worked for us last year! Maybe Turk should give Fairchild a call!
This is a Dome team playing in the worst possible December conditions.
Any team that can’t run the ball, rush the passer and isn’t overly dominant against the run is going to have a tough time winning outdoors. I just don’t see the mentality needed to win tough, hard fought, smash mouth games. I’m sorry, but this team is more soft than they are tough minded. I just can’t see us winning any cold weather games against tough opponents.
If we could run the ball or showed any ability to do so, I’d be more confident in our chances. Our reactive D also doesn’t seem like a great fit for weather effected games either.
~K
When you say “mentality”, do you mean schematically or in the players? I think we’ve got a tough bunch of guys…
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Both
talking tough isn’t the same as playing tough. I don’t see these guys winning the smash mouth battles that are required of late season football. I’d like to see them prove me wrong there, but I think that’s a direct reflection of coaching. Crucify me here for saying that, but I don’t see how you could argue against that the way this team has played late in the season and against tough teams under Jauron….
~K
A) This group hasn’t played any late-season games under Jauron yet. I’d like to see that first before I crucify the coaching.
B) Maybe we’re not winning the smash mouth battles because the players aren’t very good…
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
AHA!!!....that's it....
You’re right K, we ain’t a tough team. Yes “high motor”, yes “high character”, yes “smart” and so forth and so on. But tuff we ain’t. I don’t think it’s necessarily personnel, but an overall mantra, ideology, or mind state. When I think of “tuff” football teams, i think:
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
Giants
And at times a few other squads….and that’s just not us. Maybe that’s our problem?
come on now
you just listed the best team in the AFC, the best team in the NFC, a perennial defensive juggernaut and the Jags who are not tough.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Nov 7, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
normally...
When you think of the jags, you think of a tough team and even when losing, Pittsburgh has always been a tough team, not just while winning. The gians…you think tough o and d lines. Add Tennesse to that list. Those guys are smash mouth. Jax made the short list simply because the aren’t having a good year, regardless they are tough. In mentality and in play.
really though...
What I was referring to was when you think of a tough team in this leauge (and just this year, but consistently) Those are the first to pop in my mind (add tampa and carolina at times as well)
When you think Buffalo, you think “Hmmm we plays the Bills this week….might be a tough team to beat”
Uhhhhh....
The Bills don’t exactly have a really fast defense. Our secondary is fast, but after that… our front seven isn’t exactly a bunch of burners. Of the players listed here, who is “fast?”
Chris Kelsey
Ryan Denney
Aaron Schobel
Marcus Stroud
Kyle Williams
Poz
Kawika Mitchell
Keith Ellison
Of these players, no one of them is FAST, even the undersized Keith Ellison is does not have but slightly above average speed. Buffalo’s front 7 IS built for cold weather physical football… the D should improve as the flurries start falling. And with Bryan Scott seeing more time at safety, our secondary is getting bigger and more physical, too.
I know these are moot points, but Buffalo’s defense is equipped RIGHT NOW to run a hybrid 34/43 defensive scheme. Dick Jauron and Perry Fewell seem infuriatingly devoted to the Cover 2 and soft zones… but the Bills have the talent on defense to get very creative with their scheme. Chris Kelsey, Ryan Denney, and Spencer Johnson are all 3-4 DE (Kelsey would have to put some weight back on probably), Stroud can obviously play NT… and Schobel is definitely athletic enough to play OLB (as well as Chris Ellis who is equally athletic). The 3-4 set could only be mixed in however, because B-Lo does not have enough depth at LB right now to run it consistently.
Anyways, any worries we have defensively right could be ameliorated if Buffalo would actually allow our cover corners to cover. Jabari Greer might be one of the best pure cover corners in the league… he never gets burnt in one-on-one situations. What’s the point to playing soft coverage AND safety high? It’s like Perry Fewell is an Alzheimer’s patient when it comes to his calls… it doesn’t matter how many times teams convert on short passes he will still call soft coverages. I want to kill him sometimes. I really believe he needs to be fired now, and Dick Jauron needs to put more of his own hands on the D at the very least.
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
thank you foreignarrow
I hardly ever read a post and agree with everything written in it, but I think this is a first.
Point 1, I couldn’t agree more that we ARE built for cold weather and we were built this way on purpose. I have no idea where this “speed” is that everyone is referring to
Point 2, the Cover 2 scheme is so freakin infuriating its nauseating. Seriously, I blame much of our inability to stop the short passing attack on the coaching not the personnel on the field. On top of that if Digi was healthy a 34/43 hybrid would work wonderfully on this team. Great call.
Point 3, YES YES AND YES. Greer and McGee should be allowed to play man coverage more often, they are both VERY good at it. I think McGee and Greer would actually make a bunch of more plays on the ball if they were allowed to play man up.
Finally, this is my own little caveat to add. What is with all the negativity on this site right now. We lost two in a row in the division I get it. But we have a huge game coming up and one that we can win. If we drop the game in New England I’ll join you all in sulking. But what the heck, we’re tied for the division lead and we’re going into the house of one of the teams we are tied with. Show some pride. We have a big game and I believe in this squad to pull it out. Let’s go Buffalo. Everyone’s attitude changes if our run blocking improves. The only reason we have lost the last two games is because Marshawn can’t get a running attack going and Trent has to do too much on his own. We have a stud in the backfield, a dynamic change of pace and receiving back, and TALENT on the offensive line. They will turn it around and a lot of things will change. Our passing attack will be more explosive and our defense will be on the field less and playing with leads.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
I have no idea where this "speed" is that everyone is referring to.
I was referring more to the Tampa 2 being a speed-oriented defense, in which players are required to fly to the football. We are a speed defense; that’s why you see opponents using misdirection on us all the time. We’re FAST to the ball. I’m not talking about players individually; I’m talking about as a unit.
Basically what you guys are saying is that we have guys ill-equipped for our scheme, and that’ll get worse when it gets cold.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
We are a speed defense; that’s why you see opponents using misdirection on us all the time. We’re FAST to the ball.
Couldn’t that be because our DE’s rush so far upfield and are typically out of position in the run game?? I don’t see the same speed that you see. I see guys who are a step late a lot. I think our D has succeeded at stopping the run more this year because we aren’t getting steamrolled with smaller players like in years past, not because our guys are flying to the ball…..
~K
You could make the same argument in that being a step late has more to do with positioning than speed. Every coach we’ve faced talks about how fast to the ball our D is; that’s a speed defense.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Mitchell is fast
In fact, so fast that he overruns the play too often.
everything goes better with bacon
The problem I have is that I can not fathom why Dick Jauron, who is a defensive guru, did not sit down with Fewell in the off-season and realize that our defense has particular strengths and weaknesses that his coordinators scheme wasn’t going to utilize.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Nov 6, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
all this negativity in this town sucks…..We are who we thought they were in the words of Denny Green. We hoped Trent/Turk would be good. We thought Marshawn would be even better. We were stoked about Stroud, Poz, Mitchell additions. We are right there, this $100 million OL isn’t all of a sudden going to crumble. They will find a way to get better. The key is finding that swagger, that attitude, and if Marshawn can come in this week, be “beast-mode” and our defense comes to play, this game is ours.
1 final point. Where the hell is our Special Teams? I am dying for them to have a break out week but we are really lacking there it seems. McKelvin is so bad at finding a seam on kickoffs. He runs so slow. McGee has way more explosion and vision from the goal line to the 20 then McKelvin. I hope the coaches remedy this by putting McGee back there this week at least some of the time
MARVelous
I had those same issues when we went to a cover 2 based D and resigned guys like Kelsay. If we are going to run a D based on speed, shouldn’t we have some? Our LB’s are below average speed-wise and we have absolutely no speed and very little athleticism on the DL. Running a zone in the d-backfield, you should have guys who can get to the QB or ball carriers quickly in the front 7.
~K
I love the idea of a 34/43 hydrid
One thing about most of our players is that they seem very smart. I think they could easily adapt to a hybrid, which would put a lot of pressure on opposing offenses. I seriously doubt that Fewell could actually call hybrid plays, he strikes me as a tad bit dull around the edges.
I think Fewell's scheme is sound...
but his playcalling inconsistent. We have the secondary to play more press coverage, but he is very apprehensive to let them do that. I saw against the Jets he called more pressing of receivers and it obviously showed up in the box score in the form of keeping Favre largely in check for most of the day. I think it helps keep the receiver from getting a 1st step edge on McGee who is still not 100% and allows him to still be physical and keep the receiver from getting immediate separation. Has Ellis played a snap or two or even been active yet? Is he really looking that horrendous in practice that he can’t push Copeland Bryan for PT. It’s funny to me that Denney has played a fraction of the time of Kelsay and yet they’re stats are identical. I always felt when healthy Denny could make more plays than Kelsay. They’ve gotta show up in a big way this week.
Perhaps we're in no man's land now with our D
Agree our secondary is ready to play man now. We seem to be slowly transitioning out of the cover 2. As soon as Fewell shows the confidence to play man in the secondary, I think our D will definitely get better. Overall, pretty good now though. We also seem to be stocking players that fit a 4-3. I think the difference between us and say, the Giants or Steelers, is the size and physicality of the players. Some of our guys do play a good physical game, but not enough of them. That’s why I am all in favor of bringing in bigger, more physical people. Going to man coverage in the secondary would be a statement to all that we are now ready to play a much more physical game. Do it and do it now.
everything goes better with bacon
Funny how nobody else but me seems at all concerned..
About the fact that we have absolutely no depth whatsoever at LB. The next guy that goes down – Kiss the season goodbye!
We’re concerned. It just doesn’t really fit into this discussion… perhaps a FanPost on the subject? :)
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Nov 6, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
very good article
I think this is a very interesting subject that needs to continue to be discussed. Great job rumblings!
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