At 6-6, the Bills inexplicably remain just two games out of the division lead in what still remains one of the tightest divisional races in the entire league.  There are three divisional games to go.  Hey, I've seen crazier things happen.  Buffalo suddenly bucking their latest trend, waking up and winning out?  That would rank as the craziest.

Let me start by saying I am an eternal optimist and the Bills aren't officially eliminated yet (Brian's quote from the main page tells the story).  I have not seen them play well enough to win out and get to the 10-6 record it will take them to get into the playoffs (with a lot of help, mind you) so you can save the "are you out of your mind?" posts.  Whether I am out of my mind or not, let's still look at how the Bills can make the playoffs, however unlikely. 

After today's games, the Bills' outlook for the playoffs hasn't changed very much even after that fat loss to the 49ers.  The teams standing in the way of the Bills, the Ravens and Colts, are all still standing in the Bills way, with wins this week.   The Jets and Patriots lost, though, leaving the door ajar for a miraculous Bills finish and a spot in the playoffs....  I have visited Lake Placid and still believe in miracles at a time of year when miracles always happen.  Anyways, my original "Who to Root For" notes are in regular font with new information in bold italics.

Rule #1: Always root for the NFC teams to beat an AFC team

• Detroit over Tennessee (now 11-1) - This one doesn't really matter to the Bills but it would be fun to watch it on Thanksgiving, wouldn't it???  In theory we can catch them...  Put it this way, it couldn't hurt us if Detroit won.  Honestly, who thought this would happen.  Incidentally Tennessee now would have to lose out and the Bills would have to tie out for the two teams to be tied at the end of the year in overall and conference records.  Probably a safe bet just to root for the Titans to beat everyone they play.
  
• St. Louis over Miami (7-5, Win over the Bills) - If Jim Haslett remembers playing in Buffalo,  he will show some pride and squish the proverbial fish for us this week.  The Bills do control their destiny against the Dolphins so this game is not crucial.  If the Bills win the rest of their games (I know, I know)  the Bills would go through Miami (in Toronto oddly enough) to go 10-6 and be tied with the Dolphins in overall and division records .  The Bills would win the tiebreaker on Conference record anyways.

Rule #2: AFC upsets help us a lot

Some of the AFC bottom dwellers can help us by pulling off some wins;

• Denver (7-5, game against Bills upcoming) over New York Jets (8-4, win over the Bills) - If we want to win the division, the Dolphins need to beat the Jets Week 17 (barring a New York Mets style collapse by the Jets) and we need to win out.  The loss to the Dolphins will even out the division records (see one of the last paragraphs way down below) giving the Bills a shot.  This game vs. the Broncos doesn't effect the tiebreakers but if the Jets were to lose a couple more times, we could end up with a better record than them which would give us teh division crown.  Bottom line: If we win out, in the process beat the Jets, and then they lose to the Dolphins in Week 17, we win the division.  If the Jets beat the Dolphins, we will need to be a game ahead of them in overall record to be ahead of them.  The Bills catch a break.  They are two games out in the division.  With a Miami win over the Jets in Week 17, the Bills can still take the division crown by winning out.  How about that optimism???  Note: Denver is up three games on San Diego with 4 to play and the Bills coming to town next week.
 
• Cincinnati (1-10-1) over Baltimore (8-4) - Baltimore (6-3) has a better AFC record than the Bills (4-4) and a loss here would tie us in the overall record and the Conference loss column.  Baltimore plays a tough schedule down the stretch but those are mainly against NFC teams.  This would really help with that pesky AFC record tiebreaker.  A loss here would be huge for us.  The Ravens keep pulling away, leaving the Bills in the Wild Card dust.  Baltimore is now 7-3 in the AFC while the Bills remain 4-4.  We need the Ravens to have at least one Conference loss for any shot at catching them.  Their remaining AFC games are home games against Pittsburgh and Jacksonville in weeks 15 & 17.  They have to lose at least one of those games and one of their other games for the Bills to catch them.
  
• Cleveland (4-8) over Indianapolis (8-4) - While I am loathe to root for the Browns after last Monday Night they could really help us by knocking off the Colts.  They have beaten the Giants and Bills this year so they are certainly capable.  This would tie us with Indy in overall record and knock Indy's stellar AFC record down to 6-3, at least within reach of the Bills for the head to head wild card tiebreaker.  Remember, Indy has a cupcake schedule down the stretch.  This one was closer than I thought it would be, but in the end the Bills still got the short end of the stick.    Indy's Conference record stands at 7-2 and unless they lose two of the games vs. Cincy (Week 14), Jacksonville (Week 16), or a likely clinched Tennessee team (week 17), they will be in over the Bills.  Odds are 95% the Colts will take care of business and get an AFC playoff birth.  Or they could lose five games straight....  :-)
  

Other AFC Games this week:

• Pittsburgh (9-3) over New England (7-5, win over the Bills) - If we assume Pittsburgh clinches their division we can remove them from our thoughts here.  A loss by the Patriots puts us into a tie with them at 7-5 overall.  If the Steelers win here and the Bills win out, they will beat the Pats in the process knocking them out (how sweet would that be?) with a 10-6 record with Buffalo at 11-5.  We didn't win so we are still a game behind the Patriots.  We would tie them in the division record tiebreaker moving us to Conference record.  The Patriots AFC record is a paltry 5-5 and so the Bills would be the Pats on that tiebreaker... Now if they could only win these next four games....

Games that don't matter to the Bills playoff hopes:

Seattle vs. Dallas, Arizona vs. Philadelphia, Carolina vs. Green Bay, New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, New York Giants vs. Washington, Atlanta vs. San Diego, Kansas City vs. Oakland, Chicago vs. Minnesota, Jacksonville vs. Houston (not yet played but who cares?)

Implications: (If the playoffs started today)

AFC East: 1st NYJ (8-4), 2nd Pats (7-5, 5-5 AFC), 3rd Dolphins (7-5), 4th Bills (6-6, 4-4 AFC) 

 AFC North: 1st Pit (9-3), 2nd Ravens (8-4, 7-3 AFC), 3rd Browns (4-8), 4th Cincy (1-10-1)

AFC South: 1st Titans (11-1), 2nd Colts (8-4, 7-2 AFC), 3rd/4th Winner of game between Jags (5-7 or 4-8) and Texans (5-7 or 4-8) 

AFC West: 1st Denver (7-5), 2nd Chargers (4-8), 3rd Oakland (3-9), 4th KC (2-10)

AFC Division Winners and seeds: 1st Titans (11-1), 2nd Pittsburgh (9-3), 3rd Jets (8-4), 4th Denver (7-5)

AFC Wild Card Teams: 5th Colts (8-4, 7-2 in AFC, wins over Ravens and Patriots)6th Ravens (8-4, 7-3 in AFC)

Outside Looking In: 7th Pats (7-5, 3-2 in AFC East, 5-5 in AFC), 8th Dolphins (7-5, 2-2 in AFC East, 5-4 in AFC), 9th Bills (7-5, 0-3 on AFC East, 4-4 in AFC)

Analysis:

These notes were posted by Chris Brown on BuffaloBills.com last week and speak volumes on the playoff chase:

Bills essentially have to win out

By Chris Brown - Posted November 25th, 2008

Unlikely I know, but a 10-6 record for Buffalo would require extraordinary help down the stretch here for the Bills to qualify for the postseason. It looks promising this season for a 10-6 team to be left out of the playoff picture as Cleveland was last season.

Colts and Ravens crashing Wild Card party

By Chris Brown - Posted November 25th, 2008

 After big conference wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego (both on the road) the Colts are 7-4 and facing a cupcake schedule the rest of the way (Clev, Cin, Det, Jax, Ten).  Unless Peyton Manning’s arm falls off, you’ve got to believe they’re going to grab one of the Wild Card spots.

Then there’s pesky upstart Baltimore. Fortunately their schedule is a bit tougher the rest of the way after they play lowly Cincy this week (Wash, Pitt, @Dal, Jax).

Both teams have a one game lead on the Bills as does New England. Buffalo only gets to directly make an impact on New England’s standing in the season finale.

How can we make the playoffs? (Most promising to least promising)

1. Bills win out and in process beat Jets and Dolphins.  Jets lose to Dolphins in Week 17 giving the division to the Bills based on AFC record tiebreaker. 
2. Bills win out knocking Patriots and Dolphins out of the equation.  Ravens lose both AFC games against Pittsburgh and Jacksonville -or- three of their last four to Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jacksonville.  I think the Ravens losing three of four is a safer bet than the Bills winning out.  This gets us ahead of Baltimore for a Wild Card spot.
3. Bills win out knocking Patriots and Dolphins out of the equation.  Colts lose two of three vs. Cincy, Jacksonville, and a resting Tennessee team -or- three of their last four to those teams with Detroit.  This gets us ahead of Indy for a Wild Card spot (not bloody likely).

So there you have it.  The Bills can still make the playoffs and the only thing we need to do is win out and hope for some help.  So Kurupt and everybody else who thinks we are toast, think again.  We're in the toaster and someone is pushing the lever down but it just won't stay down.  I'm not saying it's going to happen, I'm just saying it can happen.  Let the comments begin!