It’s only a tad less frustrating seeing those numbers…..

But that just goes to show how bad the team was last year…….

hopefully with another solid draft and another off-season of work…..the pieces will finally result into something positive.

This is a great, great, great post!

My thoughts:

The jury is still out on Trent. He has shown signs of being the real deal, but only time will tell. We should all be praying, sticking pins in dolls or whatever we believe to work that he ends up being the real deal, otherwise the whole rebuilding process essentially starts over.

3rd Down percentage: 36%

Words can’t describe how happy I am that you mentioned that. I fell like the fan expectations are way too high and rip on Fewell everytime this team gives up a first down, but the proof is in the statistics. This scheme works. It does stop thrid downs, it does limit points.

20+ Yard Completions: 28

And that is the entire point of the scheme. I feel like I am the only person left on this blog (I know that isn’t true) who actually believes the cover 2 works as well as a 3-4 or some aggressive blitzing 4-3.

Yards Per Carry: 4.0

We’ve still got work to do, but a defensive end and outside linebacker who don’t overpursue would be a good start. A healthy Whitner playing with Bryan Scott will make something of a difference too.

Avg. Yards Per Pass Attempt: 7.3. Often touted as a real indicator of an effective passing game

Count me as one of those people who feel that way about ypa.

Nice post, PozDispenser (not to mention nice user name).

I’ve long felt that Edwards and Brees are similar players – Edwards is just more of a physical specimen than Brees – so I like the comparison. Let’s hope we don’t pull a San Diego and oust him for a youngster!

I agree with your assessment of Trent. Many of the great ones struggled in their first couple of seasons… I had posted a response with some detailed stats:
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I decided to look at the two first seasons of some of the great ones and the results were quite surprising. Because there is such a big discrepancy in the quantity of games played over their two first seasons it’s difficult to use any other indicator but the QB rating. I know its not perfect but it does mean something and for the purpose at hand it is probably a very accurate stat to use.

Unfortunately, what these stats don’t show is the compliment around him. For example, Big ben benefited being on a team that had a top rated defense generating lots of turnovers with short fields and he also had a great OLINE & Running game. So unfortunately it’s impossible to take all those other factors into account. What we do know however is that Trent has had to produce these numbers with a really weak Offensive line, an overall weak running game, a defense that has a very difficult time getting off the field and rarely creates turnovers.

So lets look at where Trent lies amongst some of the great ones:

ROOKY YEAR
Rank Player GS Att Comp PCT Yards TD INT Rating
1 Big Ben 13 295 196 66.4 2621 17 11 98.1
2 Dan Marino 9 296 173 58.4 2210 20 6 96
3 Tom Brady 14 413 264 63.9 2843 18 12 86.5
4 Jim Kelly 16 480 285 59.4 3593 22 17 83.3
5 Joe Montana 1 23 13 56.5 96 1 0 81.1
6 Johnny Unitas 7 198 110 55.6 1498 9 10 74
7 Peyton Manning 16 575 326 56.7 3739 26 28 71.2
8 Trent Edwards 9 269 151 56.1 1630 7 8 70.4
9 Joe Namath 9 340 164 48.2 2220 18 15 68.7
10 Steve Young 5 138 72 52.2 935 3 8 56.9
11 Eli Manning 7 197 95 48.2 1043 6 9 55.4
12 John Elway 10 259 123 47.5 1663 7 14 54.9

Y2
 Rank Player GS Att Comp PCT Yards TD INT Rating
 1 Dan Marino 16 564 362 64.2 5084 48 17 108.9
 2 Big Ben 12 268 168 62.7 2385 17 9 98.6
 3 Peyton Manning 16 533 331 62.1 4135 26 15 90.7
 4 Johnny Unitas 12 301 172 57.1 2550 24 17 88
 5 Joe Montana 7 273 176 64.5 1795 15 9 87.8
 6 Trent Edwards 9 245 164 66.9 1845 7 7 86.9
 7 Tom Brady 16 601 373 62.1 3764 28 14 85.7
 8 Jim Kelly 12 419 250 59.7 2798 19 11 83.8
 9 John Elway 14 380 214 56.3 2598 18 15 76.8
 10 Eli Manning 16 557 294 52.8 3762 24 17 75.9
 11 Steve Young 14 363 195 53.7 2282 8 13 65.5
 12 Joe Namath 14 471 232 49.3 3379 19 27 62.6

The above numbers include the three game loosing streak. I continue to think that those last three games were lost because of extremely poor play-calling & extreme predictability which made Trent’s job almost impossible. Nonetheless, he is still sitting at 86.9 rating. It got me to thinking what his numbers were from the six games he played and they were:
 2 Trent Edwards (first 6) 6 152 106 70% 1209 5 2 98.8

So if we exclude the last three games from the equasion he then ranks 2nd behind Dan Marino. Furthermore, in those 6 games he was sacked 11 times (152 attempts, so approx 7.5% of the pass attempts) whereas Marino was sacked 13 times in 16 games (564 attempts, so approx 1.9% of the pass attempts). I can’t stop but wonder how bad Marino’s numbers would have been behind a lousy line like ours. So what makes this so impressive is that he accomplished these stats with only 1 quality receiver, no O-Line, no running game, no tight End. Not even the great Tom Brady has ever had to deal with such factors, especially not in his second year!

I don’t know how scientific this analysis is but it sure shows that our guy is pretty dam good. Since before the Bye week we’ve been complaining that the play-calling is way too predictable and that the O-Line really really sucks this year, well even a great QB will eventually start to have problems in those circumstances and I believe that has been the problem the last few weeks.

So in my opinion we have definitely found our franchise QB
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On your second point I must admit that I have been critical recently because I like to watch aggressive defenses and ours isn’t. But what I failed to acknowledge is that we’ve improved in a lot of critical areas like third down conversions – so thanks for pointing it out.

On the offensive side, I don’t care what the stats are because we have not used our talent properly. It could have been so much better. They should have never given Trent to ability to change plays on the line, it’s too much for a rookie QB to process. I just hope that next year they KISS for him. He has so much potential and with Lynch/Jackson and Evans/Reed there is no reason for him to fail, we need to put him in a situation to succeed.

I really liked this post PD and I hope you put up more of them. It’s nice to read a well thought out and uplifting post right now and we could use a bit more of them. kaisertown alluded to what a good segment you did on the defense and to tell you the truth you certainly opened my eyes.

kaiser wrote that too may fans

rip on Fewell everytime this team gives up a first down

(ok maybe i’m over using the pink box a little (hehe I’m sorry im sorry immature I know I can’t help it)) And I’ll admit it, maybe its because that 3rd down completion percentage is down over the last 2 weeks, when I’ve been watching games recently I’ve been pretty mad at the defense for giving up 3rd downs on what seemed like everyone they faced. But stats don’t lie. So kudos to you for teaching me something today.

Edwards – I hope Edwards is able to prove he can be a starting QB in the AFC EAST. Maybe if he was playing in a southern climate in a dome there would be no debate. I am hoping for the best, but I am not buying this cow until he proves he can make ice cream! Either way, we need to draft a youngster to develop and bring in a vet to compete with Edwards and hopefully be our #2 QB.

3rd downs – Maybe the reason for this stat is because teams only need two downs to get 10yds? Again, I am to lazy to look it up, but IMO time of possession, yards given up per game, and points allowed are the three best indicators of how good a defense is. You mention we are doing better with YPG, but you do not say how we rank in the NFL. Does anyone have those stats?

20 + plays – Why take the chance of going deep when we play our CBs 10 yds off. Take the low risk short to intermediate range stuff and put together 6-8 minute drives. Wear the defense down and run it down their throats in the 4th quarter. Sound familiar?

i got a huge grin on my face when i read your name!!!

very nice post. it’s good to see something positive and see something to grow on in the future. the negativity has been giving me ogeda (spelling?) lately.

also, i was watching this show on travel channel tonight about bar foods and of course they featured buffalo wings and anchor bar. well, as the owner of the place was saying, “people remember buffalo for three things: cold weather, losing four super bowls (with the bills symbol and a sign saying ‘five times a charm’ – by the way, not correct grammar by them), and buffalo wings.” my friends all start hootin and hollerin at me and i bug out. the bills are everyone’s doormat and i’m sick of it. goodnight.

Did you see that they plan to raise Metrocard prices 28%? My monthly subway pass is now going to be $104….f that!! Oh how I feel your pain my friend….

 The Defense:
3rd Down percentage: 36%.
20+ Yard Completions: 28.
 Yards Per Carry: 4.0.

not bad not great – my only issue is with the competition we have played. next year will be a much better barometer of where we are at. Lets see how we do against Indy, Ten, Saints, Falcons, TB – all of these teams probably have bettter offenses than the Bills have played this year save for the Cards.

we all said this was the year because of cup cake schedule – lets make sure we think about that while evaluating how this team has improved.

Completion Percentage: 65.1% – i like this stat

I love numbers and stats PD. This is right in my wheelhouse. Rec’d.

Lets not forget we were actually closest the playoffs that year, the FIRST year DIck got here. Do the stats show a trend of improvement for all 3 years or just over last year. If the first is true, maybe an argument can be made that we should keep Dick for one more year.