We've talked about this on the a few seperate threads, but I feel we needed a post just focusing on it. In the interest of full disclosure let me say that I thought the it was a ridiculous play call. There have been some folks who have defended the call (if not the execution) expertly enough that I felt we should take a closer look at our opinions. Maybe this is just setting up a brand new pointless argument, but I hope we'll all at least feel better. I want to examine the possible outcomes that could be reasonably expected and weigh the costs and benefits.

Here goes nothing...

Situation: 2nd and 5. Ball on the BUF 27 yard line. 2:06 on the clock. Jets have used one timeout.

The Call: I-Form, TE (Derek Fine) strongside. Both Evans and Reed ran crossing ran drag patterns across the face of the LBs. Fine looked to be running a seam pattern. Play action to Lynch. It looks like McIntyre was to chip Bryan Thomas on the edge (number 99) and then release into the flat. He was picked up by Lynch.

It seems to me that Losman's initial read was not McIntyre in the flat, but rather Fine down the seam. This would've been dictated by coverage. The LBs were playing underneath on the crossing routes, and presumedly Fine would've been open behind them. To his credit, I believe that Losman felt the pressure from his blind side. His checkdown was McIntyre, who had not released and Losman clearly did not have a clean throwing lane. Losman rolled to get that lane, and to allow McIntyre time to open up. The rest you know.

If the Jets did not suspect a pass, they reacted very well to it. Note that David Harris (52) did not blitz until it was certain to be a pass. One would expect the LBs to attack the line of scrimmage, which they did not. Clearly the Jets guessed right

Scenarios: There's now way Schonert could know he would be out-called, so let's look at the situation itself and determine possible outcomes:

1. The Jets buy the play action (or if we somehow complete it anyways). First down, maybe more. If the Jets bit, then one or both of the crossing would've been open, and maybe Fine as well. The result would be a first down.

2. The Jets don't buy it, and Losman throws it away. Certainly light year better than what happened, but there was still a problem. There was six seconds before the half. Six seconds is a lot of time in football. Given that the NFL standard for protection is about three seconds, Losman would have to make the remainder with his legs or his arm. If he threw it away beforehand, its very likely that there would still be a second or two on the clock, giving the Jets what amounts to a free timeout.

3. The Jets don't buy it and Losman takes off with it. I have no idea what were the instructions given to Losman before the play, so it could very well be that he was meant to read the LBs and simply tuck and run if it wasn't there. This would most likely take the clock down to two minutes, and hopefully would've resulted in a first down, although positive yardage at all would be a win.

4. The Jets don't buy it and Losman gets sacked. Would most likely take the clock down to two minutes, but a conversion is unlikely on third down.

5. The Jets sell out on a run blitz. I tend to put less weight on this eventuality, because theoretically even Losman could make the read to get the ball out quickly. It does increase the chance of an off target pass which could be intercepted or incomplete. If he was forced to go hot and it was incomplete, it would certainly be before the two minute warning. Again, extra TO for the Jets.

Conclusions: Not sure I've persuaded or dissauded anyone from their stance, but leave me firmly in the 'horrible call' camp. I think the sticking point for me is the amount of time that would've been necessary to run off. With 3, maybe 4 seconds to run off the clock, an incomplete pass most likely would've still taking us to two minute warning. Not so at 6 seconds. It ultimately comes down to a complete gamble: that the Jets would buy the play action. It was an educated guess, and I like that Turk is willing to take chances, but I can't agree with it in light of how well we were running the ball, and the fact that it generally gave us poor options should it not take the Jets by surprise. Not then, not when we had it.

I'm sure this will be contentious, maybe without point, but I felt like we needed it in depth. So discuss!