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Bills/Jets II: Notes from the Line

Early in the week I noticed with interest that some people thought Duke Preston had a good game and that was why the Bills were able to put up almost 200 rushing yards on a team that hardly allowed 20 in the first match up. My thought was that it likely had to do with Kris Jenkins’ injury. In the words of Chris Brown the Thursday before the Bills game:

"Jets NT Kris Jenkins was limited again in practice Thursday due to a hip injury. Though Jenkins is still expected to play, his number of snaps could be reduced due to the injury come Sunday."

Jenkins was in for 11 of 16 (68.7%) run plays in the first match up; he was in for 18 of the 29 (62.1%) in the second match up. Well, it’s always nice to have to report that your own hypothesis was a complete crock. 70% to 50% might have explained things, but 69% to 62% is still in the same ballpark in terms of snaps played.

I think the numbers do tell the story, just not in the way I thought they might.

Star-divide

Now that I’ve lured you to this screen, I thought I’d do something a little different. Instead of doing the finger tiring play by play I’ll look at the difference between the performance of the linemen in the two games. I’ll put it in as a chart, which hopefully stays a chart this time as I think it makes the information easily accessible. The numbers after the names indicate which game is being referenced. Peters 1, for example, is Peters in the 1st game while Chambers 2 is Chambers’ brief appearance for Walker in the 2nd game. Whittle played RG in game 1 while Butler played RG in game 2.

 

Run Plays

Lineman         Good  Bad     Decent            Killed  Grade

Peters 1         5          9          2                      0          78.8%

Peters 2         12        13        4                      0          80.5%

Dock 1            2          12        2                      1          75.0%

Dock 2            13        12        4                      0          81.2%

Preston 1       0          9          7                      3          66.3%

Preston 2       5          11        13                    0          69.5%

Whittle 1         0          15        1                      0          73.8%

Butler 2           14        11        4                      0          81.9%

Walker 1         1          13        2                      0          73.8%

Walker 2         7          14        6                      0          75.5%

Chambers 2   0          2          0                      0          75.0%

 

Two things really stand out.

 

First, look at the killed plays. In the first game Dock killed 1 and Preston killed 3. That’s 4 killed plays out of 16 (25%). In other words 1 of 4 run plays in the first game never even got going. Now look at the killed plays from the second game. Zero. That’s right. (It's also a first for Buffalo this season--and, imagine that, on the day when they have their best rushing output.) While some run plays were failures in the second game (run 22 was for -1 yard against and 8 man front) the line didn’t kill any of them. Each of the 6 (with Chambers) lineman had 29 opportunities (145 total) to screw the pooch in the 2nd game and each lineman passed on every chance. In the previous 14 games the line killed 45 run plays, an average of 3.2 per game. It’s amazing what you can do when you’re not shooting yourself in the foot.

 

Second, look at the jump in grades across the board. Peters went from 78.8% to 80.5%, Dock from 75.0% to 81.2%, Preston from 66.3% to 69.5%, Whittle’s 73.8% to Butlers 81.9%, and Walker from 73.8% to 75.5%. Peters, Dock and Butler all graded out over 80%, I believe the first time I’ve seen that since I started grading the lines at the start of last season.

 

Here is how Preston’s day in the run game unfolded:

 

Run 1—2 yards: Preston got a 2 yard push on 77 (Jenkins) with a mild assist by Dock

Run 2—3 yards: Preston and Dock doubled 77 initially. As soon as Dock left 77 beat Preston’s block and got in on the tackle.

Run 3—35 yards: Preston missed a cut on 50, who almost kept Lynch’s 35 yard gain to about 12 yards

Run 4—2 yards: Preston got a 4 yard push on 69.

Run 5—4 yards: Preston slanted right to block 92. He did an okay job for about 3 seconds and then just stopped, which let 92 run to the ball and get in on the tackle.

Run 6—2 yards: Preston and Butler doubled 77 and drove him 5 yards down the line. Butler put him down at the end of the play.

Run 7—13 yards: Preston and Butler doubled 77 initially. Butler left to hit 50 and 77 wrestled Preston down but Lynch was already past them.

Run 8—5 yards: Preston shielded 77 from the RB and got a piece of 50 at the 2nd level, just not enough to keep him from being in on the tackle.

Run 9—2 yards: Preston and Butler doubled 77. Butler put him down.

Run 10—7 yards: Preston cut 53 at the 2nd level.

Run 11—1 yard: Preston got no push at all but at least didn’t give up ground.

Run 12—1 yard: Preston and Dock doubled 77 and put him down.

Run 13—6 yards: Preston danced with 91.

Run 14—14 yards: Preston again danced with 91—no serious movement by either party. Call it a slow dance.

Run 15—1 yard: 77 moved Preston to the right and got in on the tackle. That was in spite of an initial pop from Butler.

Run 16—4 yards: Preston hit 50 at the 2nd level and kept after him. He put 50 down at the end of the play.

Run 17—6 yards: Dock chipped 77 for Preston. 77 then tossed Preston aside and got in on the tackle.  

Run 18—1 yard: Preston was shoved into the backfield 2 yards by 77. 77 and Lynch each went to their respective right which meant 77 couldn’t kill the play.

Run 19—6 yards: Dock chipped 77, who then manhandled Preston but Jackson was already past.

Run 20—2 yards: Preston got a 1 yard push on 91.

Run 21—8 yards: Preston hand fought with 92 but never got into his body. 92 moved right and got in on the tackle.

Run 22—minus 1 yard: 77 drove Preston back 3 yards and then down the line 5 more yards.

Run 23—3 yards: Preston was driven to the ground by 91.

Run 24—9 yards: Dock chipped 91, who then threw Preston aside.

Run 25—11 yard TD: Preston wrestled 91 down.

Run 26—4 yards: 77 shoved him back 1 yard, then turned and made the tackle as Lynch tried to run by.

Run 27—5 yards: Preston stood up 77 one-on-one.

Run 28—3 yards: Preston was pushed back 1 yard but got 77 on the ground.

Run 29—4 yards: Preston was shoved back 2 yards by 77

 

If you’ve been following my long winded rants you’ll see that Preston had a Preston-esque game. He’s not nearly good enough to handle the DTs in the division one-on-one. He even struggles when he gets initial help from one of the guards. I did notice on Buffalobills.com that Chris Brown believes that Buffalo will be looking to upgrade the center position this offseason. He also reported that Peters has been given assurances that a new deal is in the offing. With no progress yet I’m assuming that it’s an offseason (pre-OTA) project. That would make Peters the third highly paid offensive lineman. I don’t know that Buffalo can afford 4 of them so that rules out a free agent like Birk. All signs point to Buffalo using a high draft pick on the center position.

 

For the game, the Bills ran 9 times through the left C gap for 58 yards (6.4 ypa), 4 times for 19 yards (4.8 ypa) through the left B gap, 7 times for 18 yards (2.6 ypa) through the A gap, 5 times for 45 yards (9.0 ypa) through the right B gap and 4 times for 22 yards (5.5 ypa) through the right C gap. Running away from Preston and the DTs he can’t handle paid off for Buffalo—something that isn’t supposed to work against a 3-4 defense.

 

When the Bills have run wide, they appear to have found a blocking scheme that they really like. Run 3 (35 yards—though it really would have been about 12 if not for shoddy tackling and Lynch’s drive) illustrates it perfectly. (I’d draw a picture if I could—you can doodle it and that might help make my ramblings clear.) The alignment was Peters, Dock, Preston, Butler, Walker, Fine and Schouman. 77 lined up over Preston. 70 lined up in the gap between Butler and Walker. 96 lined up in the gap between Fine and Schouman. 50 was about 4 yards off the line behind 77 and 70, about even with the gap between Preston and Butler. 52 was about 4 yards off the line behind 70 and 96—roughly even with the gap between Walker and Fine. 24 was about 4 yards off the line and outside of Schouman’s right shoulder.

 

Peters pushed 93 4 yards and wouldn’t let him turn to chase the play. Dock slanted right and tried—unsuccessfully—to cut Jenkins. Preston went more or less straight to the 2nd level where he missed a cut on 50, who almost limited the gain to 12 yards. Here’s where it gets interesting. Fine slanted left and blocked 70, who started the play in the gap between Butler and Walker. Butler pulled to Fine’s right, went to the 2nd level and did a good job blocking 52. Schouman slanted slightly to the left and blocked 96. Walker pulled all the way around Schouman’s right and blocked the only guy out there, an unhappy 24…who was unceremoniously deposited 12 yards downfield with 2 swats.

 

So, the blocking alignment went from Butler, Walker, Fine, Schouman to Fine, Butler, Schouman Walker. The Bills trusted Fine to block a 3-4 DE one-on-one. How did he do? Well, he battled 70 for 3 yards and then cut him. Schouman had a rush OLB one-on-one. He tied 96 up, fought him for 6 yards and then cut him after hurtling 70’s prone body. The TEs made that play and the Bills used it several times during the game—both running wide left and wide right. Look for them to use it against Denver and particularly against the Patriots as they run a 3-4. It really is a thing of beauty. The play also demonstrates how the Bills rank their TEs. Fine is their top blocking guy as he is consistently given the toughest assignments, like DEs. Schouman would be second because he’s getting the easier gig, like a LB. Royal, well, he’s not even on the field.

Poll
Are you impressed by Fine?
Yes. His blocking ability is remarkable.
111 votes
No. Where's the production?
44 votes

155 votes | Poll has closed

3 recs  |  Comment 23 comments |

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Comments

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I, obviously, am impressed by Fine

Royal is easily expendable. His lone useful skill (dropping passes isn’t a useful skill) was his blocking but Fine has already surpassed him in that department—and that’s after missing half the season with a thumb injury. Fine has proven that he can catch and run at least tolerable routes. He’s also a tough SOB who isn’t afraid to mix it up with defensive linemen. I like him a lot.

by Ron From NM on Dec 20, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I like Fine, too. I have not seen him drop too many passes or fumble, like Royal tends to do. I also think Shouman has displayed good hands and ball control. It is a relief that the position has a little potential, and the Bills can focus on more pressing needs.

Sweet home Orchard Park.

by thurman on Dec 20, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tell it preacher! I like Fine alot now, I admit I was REALLY puzzled at them taking him in the 4th

But I can see why now, the kid just won’t quit when it comes to blocking. They must have hoped he would be good, but not that good. Royal will be gone this offseason, and a 6th or 7th round pass cathing kid will be coming in. Fine makes this run game purr now that were using it right.

Schou will be an OK player, but never a game changer. He is just not fast enough to get up the seam and cause teams to detail a S on him to free Lee up from doubles. We need to draft a kid like that.

Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?

by WABillsfan on Dec 20, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I completely forgot to add in an oddity of Yeti proportions

The Jets blitzed Losman 9 times. Generally, Losman panics when pressured. You can actually watch his body get all tense and almost see a @#!% in a little white bubble over his head. That wasn’t the case this game. On those 9 blitzes, Losman completed 7 passes, 5 of them for first downs. One was incomplete and started badly when Losman dropped the snap. The 9th blitz, of course, was the strip/fumble/defensive TD. Still, for Losman (those are the key words), he was remarkably poised under pressure…almost Edwards-like. Too weird.

by Ron From NM on Dec 20, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

almost see a @#!% in a little white bubble over his head

Good one.

Yeah, the ability to handle the blitz effectively by both Edwards and (this time around) Losman, but the inability to handle coverage speaks to either one (or both) of two things: poor coaching and/or receivers not getting open.

by thefourwinds on Dec 20, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I assume poor play design and selection are covered under poor coaching.

"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban

by NJBill on Dec 21, 2008 1:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep, that’s a big part of it. Poor preparation too (not facing the defenses they prepared for…)

by thefourwinds on Dec 21, 2008 2:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good analysis as always Ron...

I too wonder if the Bills will invest that much money in the O-line by going out and getting a free agent C (with having to up Peters salary). I think for that reason (and becuase a guy like Birk is most likely going to stay in Minny) I think they will look to upgrade other positions – like DE, LB and S – through free agency and take a center early in the draft.

Really, it’s reason for optimisim. Buffalo is very close to have having a dominate running game – they’re just a O-coordinator who is willing to run the ball (it could be Turk if he gets his head out of his a$$) and a viable center away…

Good to hear about Fine – I haven’t been watching his blocking very close, so it’s some pleasant news.

John I.

by jri111 on Dec 20, 2008 1:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Finally

the Bills scouting department has found two viable backups that provide depth. I think its too bad that they are on the light side and they are very green, often getting injured. We must get a TE that knows how to run a route, get open in space and catch the ball. We have to have added size here as well to steer away from injury. The TE is like a binkie to QBs and we dont have one. Royal was and always will be a bust. I could have played TE better than him.

I enjoy the write ups Ron, as you analyze the game very, very well.

"Live life, Love life and Laugh at life."

"Optimism is the key to Everything."

"Never have a rear view mirror in life."

by Cutter3636 on Dec 20, 2008 1:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Size vs speed

It’s interesting that you raise the size issue with TE. As we all know, Buffalo has a huge offensive line. We’ve seen the problems the linemen have with taking on defenders in space and how they struggle to cut defenders when called upon to do so. In the play I referenced, both Fine and Schouman cut defenders. They were fast enough to get into the legs of the defenders before they could react and get their hands down. On that same play, Dock missed a cut on Jenkins, a guy hedging towards 400. Buffalo definitely isn’t a finess running team. With that said, having a smaller TE who can hold his own against virtually any LB and many DEs works well for those edge rushes. Someone has to be able to play in space…

by Ron From NM on Dec 20, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good analysis on the contracts

I didn’t take that into account when I said go after Birk and draft a guy. I may be moving into the Mack camp from the Crowell’s replacement camp…. we’ll have to wait and see.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 20, 2008 1:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mack Mack Mack Mack Mack Mack MackMackMackMMMMMMAAAAAAAACK

by twoeightnine on Dec 20, 2008 2:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully Fine will develope into a top 10 tight end.

However I would be looking hard for a TE in free agency.

by gjv on Dec 20, 2008 2:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You can spend months looking and you won't find any.

Bo Scaife is probably the cream of the crop… and will be franchised by Tenn if they don’t re-sign him. Owen Daniels is better but is a RFA so he’s not going anywhere. LJ Smith has never really impressed me. Leonard Pope is a RFA. Jerramy Stevens is a rapist, scumbag.

by twoeightnine on Dec 20, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Too bad Preston needs help when facing an injured Jenkins

He is not even worth keeping as depth, IMO. I can only pray you are right about the Bills draft plans. If we had Mack and a health Edwards, this offense could be very good at least until it gets cold :-)…..maybe Trent’s blood will finally thicken up. Assuming we draft Mack, who is our backup center, Whittle?

Fine and Johnson look to be our steals of the draft. We will need both of them to step up big time.

It is too bad the coaches didn’t find this site earlier. We have been calling for running plays to the outside for a long time.

Great job as usual, Ron!

"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."

by Joe P. on Dec 20, 2008 3:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Alot of people needed help this year blocking Jenkins. What’s really too bad is that the Bills didn’t get Jenkins.

by gjv on Dec 20, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Who says the coaches read this site or that they don’t already know what we know? Even if they do know (and I think they do) that Preston isn’t a good center, really, what can they do about it? Yes, they should have known it before but once the draft was over there weren’t many options to upgrade that position.

Once the season is over I’ll get around to posting the annual grades. Whittle, as I’m just thinking of his limited playing time, is just kind of there. Buffalo may well be able to do better in the offseason. We’ll see.

by Ron From NM on Dec 20, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Whittle will retire this offseason anyhow

He is now vested in the NFLPA pension plan at what 10 years? He is going to get the max pension the rest of his life now. And he isn’t playing in any games as a starter or even a common backup (Chambers seems to be the first man on the field these days). I think he might retire unless the Bills want his vet leadership on the line for the vet minimum on another 1 year contract.

Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?

by WABillsfan on Dec 20, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, duh!

I could have put down above the chart that I was comparing the first and second Jets games but then that would have been clear. Instead I apparently opted for murky. Well done.

by Ron From NM on Dec 20, 2008 4:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

May be enough cap room to have your cake...

…and eat it too. Ron, I appreciate the time and effort you put into analyzing arguably the most important unit on any football team. I believe the Bills already have some cap room in 2008, and if they shed some mediocre to marginally productive players, they may be able to sign a FA center and restructure Peters deal. That won’t leave much for another high-profile FA signing, but a few upgrades and a good draft could be enough to field a better product in 2009.

The Bills will need significantly better talent as the AFC East will only get tougher and they will be playing the NFC South in 2009. At 36-20 (.643), the Panthers, Bucs, Falcons and Saints are currently the toughest division in the NFC. This year, the Bills were .500 against the pathetic NFC West, 18-38 (.321) and only managed to beat the two worst teams from that division. I hope OBD feels an acute sense of urgency to upgrade the roster, starting with the line.

"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban

by NJBill on Dec 21, 2008 1:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Process of elimination

I think Peters can really do this gig for the long term. Hopefully the lack of production this year was a direct result of the absence of camp time. From your results, it looks like the Bills are set at guard (as long as Butler can stay healthy), so that leaves center and right tackle. Langston Walker is playing above average at his position, considering his size and remarkably decent agility for that size. Right tackle faces the defense’s best POWER rusher, while the Left tackle tends to face the SPEED rusher. That’s a perfect place for LW, so we are left with center.

It’s clear that while Duke Preston and Melvin Fowler are cannon fodder for Wilfork, Jenkins, and even Ferguson. It’s not an understatement to say that the Bills need a Center more than any position on their offense. If the right guys is there, do we take him in round One? I think so!

by Dyl on Dec 21, 2008 2:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Me, too

I just want Buffalo to get their top rated center. It could be a first or second round draft pick (Maybe they don’t have Mack as their top rated center…) or a free agent. I’ll be ever so pissed if the Bills ignore the position (again) this offseason. As a student of history I know that that is a possibility—they’ve done it the past two offseasons.

by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ron

I’m very late in reading this but two things jumped out to me.

1) I never thought about not signing Birk because of the money tied up at the position. For whatever reason I didn’t factor Peters contract into my equation for next year. So your probably right and I will jump off of the Birk bandwagon and hop squarly on sign TJ whosyourmomma bandwagon.

2) Fine…really? i just watched the denver game yesterday and I saw that formation a lot. i can’t wait to read your assessment of this scheme against Denver. just hopefully everyone realizes that it was a piss poor “d” we played. but based off of what you said here then what i saw yesterday – they stuck with it. i would also like your personal opinion on giving schonert another year and getting a different O-Line coach instead.

3) as always and it doesn’ thave to be said – thanks….good job

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Dec 22, 2008 3:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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