Bills/Jets II: Notes from the Line
Early in the week I noticed with interest that some people thought Duke Preston had a good game and that was why the Bills were able to put up almost 200 rushing yards on a team that hardly allowed 20 in the first match up. My thought was that it likely had to do with Kris Jenkins’ injury. In the words of Chris Brown the Thursday before the Bills game:
"Jets NT Kris Jenkins was limited again in practice Thursday due to a hip injury. Though Jenkins is still expected to play, his number of snaps could be reduced due to the injury come Sunday."
Jenkins was in for 11 of 16 (68.7%) run plays in the first match up; he was in for 18 of the 29 (62.1%) in the second match up. Well, it’s always nice to have to report that your own hypothesis was a complete crock. 70% to 50% might have explained things, but 69% to 62% is still in the same ballpark in terms of snaps played.
I think the numbers do tell the story, just not in the way I thought they might.
Now that I’ve lured you to this screen, I thought I’d do something a little different. Instead of doing the finger tiring play by play I’ll look at the difference between the performance of the linemen in the two games. I’ll put it in as a chart, which hopefully stays a chart this time as I think it makes the information easily accessible. The numbers after the names indicate which game is being referenced. Peters 1, for example, is Peters in the 1st game while Chambers 2 is Chambers’ brief appearance for
Run Plays
Lineman Good Bad Decent Killed Grade
Peters 1 5 9 2 0 78.8%
Peters 2 12 13 4 0 80.5%
Dock 1 2 12 2 1 75.0%
Dock 2 13 12 4 0 81.2%
Whittle 1 0 15 1 0 73.8%
Chambers 2 0 2 0 0 75.0%
Two things really stand out.
First, look at the killed plays. In the first game Dock killed 1 and
Second, look at the jump in grades across the board. Peters went from 78.8% to 80.5%, Dock from 75.0% to 81.2%,
Here is how
Run 1—2 yards:
Run 2—3 yards:
Run 3—35 yards:
Run 4—2 yards:
Run 5—4 yards:
Run 6—2 yards:
Run 7—13 yards:
Run 8—5 yards:
Run 9—2 yards:
Run 10—7 yards:
Run 11—1 yard:
Run 12—1 yard:
Run 13—6 yards:
Run 14—14 yards:
Run 15—1 yard: 77 moved
Run 16—4 yards:
Run 17—6 yards: Dock chipped 77 for
Run 18—1 yard:
Run 19—6 yards: Dock chipped 77, who then manhandled
Run 20—2 yards:
Run 21—8 yards:
Run 22—minus 1 yard: 77 drove
Run 23—3 yards:
Run 24—9 yards: Dock chipped 91, who then threw
Run 25—11 yard TD:
Run 26—4 yards: 77 shoved him back 1 yard, then turned and made the tackle as Lynch tried to run by.
Run 27—5 yards:
Run 28—3 yards:
Run 29—4 yards:
If you’ve been following my long winded rants you’ll see that
For the game, the Bills ran 9 times through the left C gap for 58 yards (6.4 ypa), 4 times for 19 yards (4.8 ypa) through the left B gap, 7 times for 18 yards (2.6 ypa) through the A gap, 5 times for 45 yards (9.0 ypa) through the right B gap and 4 times for 22 yards (5.5 ypa) through the right C gap. Running away from
When the Bills have run wide, they appear to have found a blocking scheme that they really like. Run 3 (35 yards—though it really would have been about 12 if not for shoddy tackling and Lynch’s drive) illustrates it perfectly. (I’d draw a picture if I could—you can doodle it and that might help make my ramblings clear.) The alignment was Peters, Dock,
Peters pushed 93 4 yards and wouldn’t let him turn to chase the play. Dock slanted right and tried—unsuccessfully—to cut Jenkins.
So, the blocking alignment went from
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I, obviously, am impressed by Fine
Royal is easily expendable. His lone useful skill (dropping passes isn’t a useful skill) was his blocking but Fine has already surpassed him in that department—and that’s after missing half the season with a thumb injury. Fine has proven that he can catch and run at least tolerable routes. He’s also a tough SOB who isn’t afraid to mix it up with defensive linemen. I like him a lot.
Tell it preacher! I like Fine alot now, I admit I was REALLY puzzled at them taking him in the 4th
But I can see why now, the kid just won’t quit when it comes to blocking. They must have hoped he would be good, but not that good. Royal will be gone this offseason, and a 6th or 7th round pass cathing kid will be coming in. Fine makes this run game purr now that were using it right.
Schou will be an OK player, but never a game changer. He is just not fast enough to get up the seam and cause teams to detail a S on him to free Lee up from doubles. We need to draft a kid like that.
Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?
I completely forgot to add in an oddity of Yeti proportions
The Jets blitzed Losman 9 times. Generally, Losman panics when pressured. You can actually watch his body get all tense and almost see a @#!% in a little white bubble over his head. That wasn’t the case this game. On those 9 blitzes, Losman completed 7 passes, 5 of them for first downs. One was incomplete and started badly when Losman dropped the snap. The 9th blitz, of course, was the strip/fumble/defensive TD. Still, for Losman (those are the key words), he was remarkably poised under pressure…almost Edwards-like. Too weird.
almost see a @#!% in a little white bubble over his head
Good one.
Yeah, the ability to handle the blitz effectively by both Edwards and (this time around) Losman, but the inability to handle coverage speaks to either one (or both) of two things: poor coaching and/or receivers not getting open.
by thefourwinds on Dec 20, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
I assume poor play design and selection are covered under poor coaching.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
Yep, that’s a big part of it. Poor preparation too (not facing the defenses they prepared for…)
by thefourwinds on Dec 21, 2008 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
good analysis as always Ron...
I too wonder if the Bills will invest that much money in the O-line by going out and getting a free agent C (with having to up Peters salary). I think for that reason (and becuase a guy like Birk is most likely going to stay in Minny) I think they will look to upgrade other positions – like DE, LB and S – through free agency and take a center early in the draft.
Really, it’s reason for optimisim. Buffalo is very close to have having a dominate running game – they’re just a O-coordinator who is willing to run the ball (it could be Turk if he gets his head out of his a$$) and a viable center away…
Good to hear about Fine – I haven’t been watching his blocking very close, so it’s some pleasant news.
John I.
Finally
the Bills scouting department has found two viable backups that provide depth. I think its too bad that they are on the light side and they are very green, often getting injured. We must get a TE that knows how to run a route, get open in space and catch the ball. We have to have added size here as well to steer away from injury. The TE is like a binkie to QBs and we dont have one. Royal was and always will be a bust. I could have played TE better than him.
I enjoy the write ups Ron, as you analyze the game very, very well.
"Live life, Love life and Laugh at life."
"Optimism is the key to Everything."
"Never have a rear view mirror in life."
Size vs speed
It’s interesting that you raise the size issue with TE. As we all know, Buffalo has a huge offensive line. We’ve seen the problems the linemen have with taking on defenders in space and how they struggle to cut defenders when called upon to do so. In the play I referenced, both Fine and Schouman cut defenders. They were fast enough to get into the legs of the defenders before they could react and get their hands down. On that same play, Dock missed a cut on Jenkins, a guy hedging towards 400. Buffalo definitely isn’t a finess running team. With that said, having a smaller TE who can hold his own against virtually any LB and many DEs works well for those edge rushes. Someone has to be able to play in space…
Good analysis on the contracts
I didn’t take that into account when I said go after Birk and draft a guy. I may be moving into the Mack camp from the Crowell’s replacement camp…. we’ll have to wait and see.
Hopefully Fine will develope into a top 10 tight end.
However I would be looking hard for a TE in free agency.
You can spend months looking and you won't find any.
Bo Scaife is probably the cream of the crop… and will be franchised by Tenn if they don’t re-sign him. Owen Daniels is better but is a RFA so he’s not going anywhere. LJ Smith has never really impressed me. Leonard Pope is a RFA. Jerramy Stevens is a rapist, scumbag.
by twoeightnine on Dec 20, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Too bad Preston needs help when facing an injured Jenkins
He is not even worth keeping as depth, IMO. I can only pray you are right about the Bills draft plans. If we had Mack and a health Edwards, this offense could be very good at least until it gets cold :-)…..maybe Trent’s blood will finally thicken up. Assuming we draft Mack, who is our backup center, Whittle?
Fine and Johnson look to be our steals of the draft. We will need both of them to step up big time.
It is too bad the coaches didn’t find this site earlier. We have been calling for running plays to the outside for a long time.
Great job as usual, Ron!
"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."
Who says the coaches read this site or that they don’t already know what we know? Even if they do know (and I think they do) that Preston isn’t a good center, really, what can they do about it? Yes, they should have known it before but once the draft was over there weren’t many options to upgrade that position.
Once the season is over I’ll get around to posting the annual grades. Whittle, as I’m just thinking of his limited playing time, is just kind of there. Buffalo may well be able to do better in the offseason. We’ll see.
I think Whittle will retire this offseason anyhow
He is now vested in the NFLPA pension plan at what 10 years? He is going to get the max pension the rest of his life now. And he isn’t playing in any games as a starter or even a common backup (Chambers seems to be the first man on the field these days). I think he might retire unless the Bills want his vet leadership on the line for the vet minimum on another 1 year contract.
Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?
Oh, duh!
I could have put down above the chart that I was comparing the first and second Jets games but then that would have been clear. Instead I apparently opted for murky. Well done.
May be enough cap room to have your cake...
…and eat it too. Ron, I appreciate the time and effort you put into analyzing arguably the most important unit on any football team. I believe the Bills already have some cap room in 2008, and if they shed some mediocre to marginally productive players, they may be able to sign a FA center and restructure Peters deal. That won’t leave much for another high-profile FA signing, but a few upgrades and a good draft could be enough to field a better product in 2009.
The Bills will need significantly better talent as the AFC East will only get tougher and they will be playing the NFC South in 2009. At 36-20 (.643), the Panthers, Bucs, Falcons and Saints are currently the toughest division in the NFC. This year, the Bills were .500 against the pathetic NFC West, 18-38 (.321) and only managed to beat the two worst teams from that division. I hope OBD feels an acute sense of urgency to upgrade the roster, starting with the line.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
Process of elimination
I think Peters can really do this gig for the long term. Hopefully the lack of production this year was a direct result of the absence of camp time. From your results, it looks like the Bills are set at guard (as long as Butler can stay healthy), so that leaves center and right tackle. Langston Walker is playing above average at his position, considering his size and remarkably decent agility for that size. Right tackle faces the defense’s best POWER rusher, while the Left tackle tends to face the SPEED rusher. That’s a perfect place for LW, so we are left with center.
It’s clear that while Duke Preston and Melvin Fowler are cannon fodder for Wilfork, Jenkins, and even Ferguson. It’s not an understatement to say that the Bills need a Center more than any position on their offense. If the right guys is there, do we take him in round One? I think so!
Me, too
I just want Buffalo to get their top rated center. It could be a first or second round draft pick (Maybe they don’t have Mack as their top rated center…) or a free agent. I’ll be ever so pissed if the Bills ignore the position (again) this offseason. As a student of history I know that that is a possibility—they’ve done it the past two offseasons.
by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Ron
I’m very late in reading this but two things jumped out to me.
1) I never thought about not signing Birk because of the money tied up at the position. For whatever reason I didn’t factor Peters contract into my equation for next year. So your probably right and I will jump off of the Birk bandwagon and hop squarly on sign TJ whosyourmomma bandwagon.
2) Fine…really? i just watched the denver game yesterday and I saw that formation a lot. i can’t wait to read your assessment of this scheme against Denver. just hopefully everyone realizes that it was a piss poor “d” we played. but based off of what you said here then what i saw yesterday – they stuck with it. i would also like your personal opinion on giving schonert another year and getting a different O-Line coach instead.
3) as always and it doesn’ thave to be said – thanks….good job
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