Draft Position

by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 10:11 PM EST Comment 27 comments

While a win is nice it's also a loss in terms of Buffalo's draft position. As I wrote in some earlier post, one win shouldn't drop the Bills more than 1 or 2 slots. Right now the 9 teams that will end with a worse record than Buffalo are the Benglas, Browns, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Packers, Lions, Seahawks, and Rams. Picks 17 through 32 will go to the Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Colts, Broncos (or Chargers), Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers, Falcons, Bucs, Cardinals in some order. So, the Bills can't draft earlier than 10 or later than 16. The teams Buffalo will be jostling for draft position are the:

Bears (8-6, likely to win at least 1 and therefore draft after Buffalo)

Texans (7-8, play Chicago in Houston)

Chargers (7-8, play pissed off Broncos in San Diego)

Redskins (8-7, play in San Fran)

Saints (8-7, play Carolina who may be resting players)

49ers (6-9, play the Redskins)

If the Bills lose to the hated Patriots next week, the Bears and Saints will have more wins than Buffalo. Buffalo would then pick no sooner than 10th and no later than 15th. Should the Patriots win, cheer for the Chargers to beat the Broncos. Both of those teams would have 8 wins and they would pick after Buffalo. Hope for the Texans to beat the Bears and for the 49ers to beat the Redskins. Even though the 49ers would have the same number of wins as Buffalo they beat the Bills. If all that happened, Buffalo would pick 10th.

If, on the other hand, Buffalo puts a stake in the heart of the Patriots' playoff hopes, Buffalo's draft position will take a hit. The Bears are likely to still pick up 9 wins, but Buffalo would likely draft after the Texans. It wouldn't matter which team won the Broncos-Chargers game as Buffalo would draft after the loser and before the winner (due to playoff teams taking the last 12 draft slots regardless of record). I'm not sure where the Bills would draft if the Redskins and Saints finished 8-8 but the Bills, at 8-8, the Bills would draft after the 49ers. So, Buffalo would draft no earlier than 13th and as late as 15th.

Is a win over the Patriots worth up to 5 draft slots?

Poll

Is a win over the Patriots worth up to a 5 draft slot plunge to you?

Yes. Dooming their playoff hopes would make it well worth it.

64 votes

No. The short term pleasure of sad Bostonians isn't worth that slide.

13 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the reviews of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.

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it's

undoubtedly worth it. I want to see progress of this team. Now with Trent is back let’s see them play a team with a winning record. It’s another chance to actually beat a good team. I highly doubt they’ll win but I would be ecstatic if they did. It would do wonders for the psyche of this team heading into 2009. I mean, 8-8, I would take after all the crap we have had to deal with all year. 5 draft slots means nothing to me. You worry about that AFTER the season. Right now, you try to win football games and gain confidence and try to improve. This team has not quit all year under Coach Jauron, and they won’t know. Now, they probably aren’t as good as the Patriots, but in Buffalo and if Lynch plays, I think our OL can pound the living daylights out of that old ass pats defense. I just don’t think we can stop their Offense though.

But drafting McKelvin and Corner was also to be able to help defend the 4 WR sets of the Pats. So they will be put to the test on Sunday. I can’t wait to see how our young team does

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Dec 21, 2008 10:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Those are all good points

At #10 I think we’re mortal locks to get Buffalo’s top rated center. At #15, if that person is Mack, I’m not so sure. Everyone knows that the Bills need a center in the worst way so anyone who covets Mack will look to jump ahead of Buffalo—particularly if the Bills are sitting at #15 and they can move from, say, the low-mid 20s to #14.

by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I voted yes,

but losing Mack would be my biggest fear. I can’t bring myself to root for the Pats to win though.

"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."

by Joe P. on Dec 21, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not suggesting rooting for the Patriots under any circumstances...

…just pointing out the benefit to Buffalo not to win.

by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

got it

I am not too worried. Since you are going to Vegas, what are the odds of Jauron out coaching Bellicheat?

"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."

by Joe P. on Dec 21, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably worse than straight up on the Roulette table

by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we will be safe at #15.

If any other team wants him in the first, it will probably be Arizona, Philly or the Steelers. Any of them would have to pay a high price to move ahead of us.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Dec 21, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look at what the Jags paid for Harvey...

Teams are willing to do it.

by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What is the highest a Center has ever been taken?

"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."

by Joe P. on Dec 21, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here’s a list of centers taken in the top 25 since 1980:

2003 – Jeff Faine – 21
1999 – Damian Woody – 17
1993 – Steve Everitt – 14
1990 – Bern Brostek – 23
1989 – Brian Williams – 18
1983 – Dave Rimington – 25

by kaisertown on Dec 21, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Looks like the Bills will have to make some history :-)

"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."

by Joe P. on Dec 21, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow--3 to 1 on the poll so far

We’re a bitter lot!

By the way, the No option should have read, “No. The short term pleasure of sad Bostonians isn’t worth that slide.” I just don’t know how to fix my typo.

Also, I’ll be in Vegas for Christmas so I’m not ignoring you if I don’t reply.

by Ron From NM on Dec 21, 2008 10:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ha ha

“i just wanna win man” – Allen Iverson

Yeah, I wonder if the Bills would take Mach in round 1? Maybe the Stanford connection and Trent knowing him and the staff there will help influence the Bills to take him?

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Dec 21, 2008 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And Marshawn. The Marshawn connection could be important.

I hope he is actively lobbying management.

Iverson is a joke. Look what has happened to the Nuggets since he left. May be the most selfish player in the NBA.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Dec 21, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

for all the bad spelling here fellas….had a few brew ha ha’s today

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Dec 21, 2008 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ron,

Can you point me to your write up on Edwards’ ability to beat the blitz. Someone on RF365 thinks Edwards has trouble with the blitz.

"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."

by Joe P. on Dec 21, 2008 11:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I thought

edwards was like 67% against the blitz but don’t quote me on that

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Dec 21, 2008 11:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Considering the Bills strength of schedule, you can practically throw out the Bears and Redskins. It is very likely that either of those teams will end up drafting behind Buffalo even if we finish with the same record.

The Texans and Chargers are both way ahead of Buffalo in strength of schedule as well. If they win, it won’t even matter what Buffalo does.

If Buffalo loses and San Fran wins that could actually be a close SOS, so that is possible.

In other words, a loss definitely will not cost this team 5 spots in the draft.

And on a side note, if anyone thinks Alex Mack will get drafted by a team other than Buffalo in the top 15 picks, you are crazy. Nobody needs a center who doesn’t have a laundry list of other needs and could pick ahead of us.

by kaisertown on Dec 21, 2008 11:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good poll question

Six of one; half dozen of the other. I can’t even answer it yet…

by krytime on Dec 22, 2008 4:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This looks like my Who to Root For post recap...

Good work on it. Check out Who to Root For tomorrow to see how the Week 17 games will change the draft order.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 22, 2008 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think you’ll be able to get a great center in the second round (Unger from Oregon, whoas played T and C), but no one is going to draft Mack before you guys take him, no matter where you slide in the first round. You can probably move back a few spots into the 20s and be safe.

You ain't got it like Marshawn got it

by Thoroughbred on Dec 22, 2008 4:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping on that, we really need more draft picks in the 2-3rd round area, we got holes to patch

And need some bondo via draft for them.

Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?

by WABillsfan on Dec 23, 2008 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A center at 10 is too High

Is what everyone will say if the Bills have the 10th pick. If they have the 15th pick everyone will say that is ‘just right’. So Mack will probably be taken 9th.

by south123 on Dec 22, 2008 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No doubt - you win the game!

Another way to always draft high is to always loose like Detroit. Ask them how it’s working out?

If we have players or coaches that would be willing to throw a game just to be able to pick a few spots higher then they should all go, pride is something that you have or you don’t and if they don’t – well I don’t want them!

BEAST MODE, During the week plan on it & on game day thrive on it!
GO BILLS!
Section 336 Row 13

by keysh67 on Dec 22, 2008 5:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

agreed

Beating the Patriots would not only do wonders for our teams psyche but also bring down the Patriots psyche. We haven’t beaten them in so long and to do so in the last game of the year with their playoff hopes on the line would be amazing. Plus, by beating the Patriots we’re also getting in the way of the Phins in that the Jets need us to win and have to beat the Dolphins to get in. I have no problem helping out the Jets right now. As much as they bother me they don’t come even close to my dislike for the Phins and Pats

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 22, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beat the Pats its a simple as that!

Like my rhyme scheme? Yeah that was pretty bad, maybe I should just stick to dirty limericks.

Anyhow, beating the Pats is the only thing I care about, the draft positions will be decided for real after the Superbowl, but for non-qualifiers it will be determined by finishing position on the last Monday Night game. As it stands, I refuse to let it be 6 years straight we haven’t beaten the Pats, 5 years is already bad enough, NO MORE I say! No MORE!

Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?

by WABillsfan on Dec 23, 2008 2:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not as bad as you think...

Right now, the Bills have the worst strength of schedule in the league, and it’s unlikely to change much. So they are guaranteed of winning the tiebreaker against most teams; the 49ers and Broncos are the exceptions.

The Bills, with a loss, draft either at 10 or 11 (depending on the 49ers and eight other games that contribute to the tiebreakers). With a win, they draft at 11, 12, or 13:

11: Houston, San Diego, and Atlanta win*
12: Anything else
13: Houston loses and Denver wins

*(Atlanta win is for the tiebreaker with Denver; alternatively, wins by Kansas City AND Washington would work)

I doubt SF will actually win, so a win by the Bills won’t hurt them more than a pick or two.

by Krenn on Dec 23, 2008 10:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs