Who to Root For: Week 17 Edition
by MattRichWarren on Dec 23, 2008 4:50 PM EST
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PrintIf the draft began today, here would be the rough order solely determined by overall records:
1. Detroit Lions (0-15) * clinched number 1 pick
2-3. Kansas City Chiefs (2-13)
St. Louis Rams (2-13)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (3-11-1)
5-7. Seattle Seahwaks (4-11)
Oakland Raiders (4-11)
Cleveland Browns (4-11)
8-9. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)
Green Bay Packers (5-10)
10. San Fransisco 49ers (6-9)
11-13. Buffalo Bills (7-8)
San Diego Chargers (7-8)
Houston Texans (7-8)
14-17. New Orleans Saints (8-7)
Washington Redskins (8-7)
Denver Broncos (8-7)
Arizona Cardinals (8-7)
18. Philadelphia Eagles (8-6-1)
19-23. New York Jets (9-6)
Chicago Bears (9-6)
Minnesota Vikings (9-6)
Dallas Cowboys (9-6)
Tampa Bay Bucs (9-6)
24-27. Miami Dolphins (10-5)
New England Patriots (10-5)
Atlanta Falcons (10-5)
Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
28-30. Indianapolis Colts (11-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4)
Carolina Panthers (11-4)
31. New York Giants (12-3)
32. Tennessee Titans (13-2)
With only 1 game remaining, this narrows our focus to the field below. We can't draft higher than 10th or lower than 15th (look ma, top half of the draft):
10. San Fransisco 49ers (6-9)
11-13. Buffalo Bills (7-8)
San Diego Chargers (7-8)
Houston Texans (7-8)
14-16. New Orleans Saints (8-7)
Washington Redskins (8-7)
Denver Broncos (8-7)
The first tiebreaker is the playoffs. If a non-playoff team and a playoff team both have the same record at season's end, the playoff team is awarded the lower draft pick. That's why I left off the 8-7 Cradinals since they have clinched. The Broncos or Chargers will also have an automatically lower pick than the Bills since one of them will win the division next week.
Who should we actually root for this week?
Better Records than the Bills keep winning
I can't root for the Bills to lose. If you, too, can't root against the Bills, root for everyone currently tied with or behind the Bills to win so they can't get a worse record than the Bills and can't pass us.
- San Diego over Denver
- Houston over Chicago
- New Orleans over Carolina
- Washington over San Francisco
In this scenario the Bills would pick 11th at 8-8 because they would win the strength of schedule tiebreaker with all the teams tied at 8-8.
If you are capable of rooting against the Bills, you probably want all the teams tied with or higher than the Bills to win and the Bills to lose. I am not one of you but I recognize your right to exist. Here are your rooting interests:
- San Francisco over Washington
- San Diego over Denver
- Houston over Chicago
If the Bills lose to go to 7-9 and this scenario played out, the Bills would pick 10th or 11th based on the strength of schedule vs. San Francisco. Currently, Buffalo opponents have a combined 108 wins and San Fran's opponents have a combined 109. Currently, we would pick ahead of the Niners if we lost and they won.
Strength of Schedule Games:
Strength of schedule is the first determining factor after record so root for the teams the Bills have faced this year to lose and drive down our strength of schedule, making us look like a worse team and giving us a higher pick. Who would win the strength of schedule tiebreakers right now?
- Buffalo opponents: 108 wins
- San Francisco opponents: 109 wins
- Denver opponents: 109 wins
- Washington opponents 114 wins
- Houston opponents: 123 wins
- San Diego opponents: 124 wins
- What games would help our strength of schedule stay low or raise a foe's?
- Atlanta over St. Louis
- Cincinnati over Kansas City
- Pittsburgh over Cleveland
- Tampa Bay over Oakland
- Baltimore over Jacksonville
- Washington over San Francisco (only if you root for the Bills to win, otherwise go with the Niners)
- Detroit (San Fran & Washington opponent) over Green Bay
- New York Giants (San Fran & Washington opponent) over Minnesota
- Miami (Houston opponent) over New York Jets
- Indianapolis (San Diego opponent) over Tennessee
What games can we all agree on?
These are games that people rooting for and against the Bills can all share.
- San Diego over Denver: knocks both to 8-8, San Diego would be behind us automatically with the division crown and we may have a worse strength of schedule than Denver so we could draft ahead of both.
- Houston over Chicago: prevents Houston's overall record from being worse than the Bills
- New Orleans over Carolina: prevents New Orleans' overall record from being tied with the Bills
- Atlanta over St. Louis
- Cincinnati over Kansas City
- Pittsburgh over Cleveland
- Tampa Bay over Oakland
- Baltimore over Jacksonville
- Detroit over Green Bay
- New York Giants over Minnesota
- Miami over New York Jets
- Indianapolis over Tennessee
What games don't matter to the Bills draft?
Dallas @ Philadelphia, Seattle @ Arizona
What are the best and worst case scenarios?
- With a Bills loss, best possible draft spot is 10, worst is 11th due to our poor strength of schedule.
- With a Bills win, best possible draft spot is 11, worst is 14th.
With the best and worst case scenarios laid out for you, how can you root against the Bills this week? Over one or two measley little draft spots? Are you serious?
Happy Rooting! This took a while but I hope you like it. I will be back next week with our draft order and how it came to pass. Disclaimer: I have never been a draft order expert but I can crunch the numbers on the playoffs, draft, and anything else.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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great job
as always. Looks like we’ll be drafting in familiar territory. At #13 we would have our choice of top TE, Alex Mack, or another another position the Bills have rated highest on their board such as DE, DT, LB. It sets us up to get another guy that can come in and make a difference right away. And maybe this year the opportunity presents itself to trade down and still get that player which would be sweet to add some draft picks.
I hope to God though we can beat New England. That would do more for this franchise than any single off-season signing at this point. Show us you can beat a Patriots team that isn’t that good
MARVelous
Miami over New York Jets
Am I the only one who would love to see Pennington go into Jersey and show all of those jerk Jets fans what they could have had, while their golden boy Favre tosses 3 picks?
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Nope. I have always liked Chad Pennington, even though he’s only ever played for teams I hate. When the Bretts traded for Jet… er, reverse that… and they cut Chad, I prayed hard that the Bills would pick Pennington up. Who better to mentor Trent than Pennington? Alas, Bill Parcells read my mind and moved quickly.
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by Brian Galliford on Dec 23, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
I've always liked Pennington too
Master of the short game. Arm strength like Ken Stabler. A solid leader, knows the game and knows how to win. A winner. Also knows his limitations and plays within them. Miami will win this game and Mangini’s grand gamble will blow up. Love it.
everything goes better with a BIG MACK
That’s what I’m hoping for. Plus that’ll keep the Pats out of the playoffs regardless of our game, assuming Baltimore wins. I hate the Pats and their bandwagon loser fans the most. Plus, I’m sick and tired of that team. And Brett Favre is BY FAR my least favorite player in the league. What a selfish, egotistical turd.
~K
What a selfish, egotistical turd
There is not a more overrated player in all of sports IMHO.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
as opposed to the most overrated team in the history of sports,
which would have to be the ’72 Dolphins…..bastards!!!!
"If you can't be an athlete, be an athletic supporter."
Oh, but Jason Peters is worth all the extra money???
Seriously, I hate Brett Favre as much as anyone, but to act like he sucks at QB is just not reality. He’s past his prime, but he’s still a notch above most starters out there.
by thefourwinds on Dec 24, 2008 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, but Jason Peters is worth all the extra money???
Yes he does, Peters is 27 and a tremendous talent that needs to be locked long term.
Favre is a washed up gunslinger who should’ve retired last year. He was voted to the pro-bowl on rep alone, which is way over blown. He still has his moments but he is in no way a top 3 QB in the AFC right now. I wouldn’t put him in the top ten of the NFL.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Heck no.
That scenario would be pretty awesome.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 23, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
tough one
i don’t hate any team more than the dolphins with the pats and jets a very close 2nd. I have no clue who to root for. I just want to end New england’s season and let the other two fight it out
MARVelous
I say let the Bills win
and let the Miami/NYJ chips fall where they may. But I have always like Pennington-he was my first Playstation Madden QB because of his accuracy-and it would be nice for one team to stick it to the other regardless of which team is the stickee and which the sticker.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 23, 2008 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Additional facts
The worst position the Bills can draft in is 13th, not 14th. Washington is the next closest in strength of schedule, but can’t actually catch up with the Bills because of the Cincy-Philly tie. That gives them 115.5 wins.
For the Bills to draft in 11th, they just need San Diego, Houston, and Atlanta to win.
Alternatively, San Diego, Houston, Cincinnati, and Washington all have to win. In that scenario, the Bills would draft at 11 regardless of whether they win or lose!
I’ve also figured out what it takes for the Bills to draft at 10. Obviously, a loss by the Bills and a win by the 49ers is required. After that, any four of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Tampa, New Orleans, Detroit, NY Giants, and St. Louis need to win.
I didn't take it that far because I was on a time crunch before Christmas
but that makes sense, Krenn. I assumed the Bills could only move one or two spots down the board. Not a big deal for me, anyways. Some other people, maybe.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 23, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
I think for strength of schedule in the draft
they only count wins, not ties. But weird things have happened (see last year’s three way tie and a coin flip). Whatever.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 23, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
No, it’s always won-loss-tied percentage, so ties count as half a win and half a loss. Basically, the Redskins’ strength of schedule works out to 114-123-3 right now, so that’s 48.12%.
According to the tie-breaking page at the NFL website, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, and then the divisional/conference tiebreaker, and then coin flip if they can’t do that – i.e., the teams are in AFC and NFC.
So if the Bills and 49ers tied in record and SoS, there would be a coin flip, but if the Bills and Broncos tie in both, the Broncos draft first because of last week’s game.
I root for 8-8.........
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.
by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 24, 2008 1:37 AM EST reply actions
8-8
who do we appreciate? ah, what a christmas present it would be to send Belichick and company home for the season packing. It would truly be a Christmas Miracle. Hopefully Lynch and that OL decide that for one more game they will be warriors and run the snot out of the football. That’s the best way to beat up that old NE defense
MARVelous
good question
I did my part.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
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