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Third Quarter Grades: Bills Offensive Line

We’re three quarters through the season so it’s time to look at where the Buffalo Bills' starting offensive linemen - Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery, Duke Preston, Brad Butler and Langston Walker - stand. I’m kind of a nerdy chart guy myself, but my last attempt at charts didn’t work out too well. Bear in mind that I don’t have much of the Chargers game factored in...

     Run Plays
Jason Peters: 78 good, 159 decent, 26 bad, 4 killed, grade: 79.0
Derrick Dockery: 66 good, 208 decent, 26 bad, 5 killed, grade: 77.7
Duke Preston: 13 good, 95 decent, 72 bad, 15 killed, grade: 71.6
Brad Butler: 56 good, 135 decent, 30 bad, 7 killed, grade: 77.3
Langston Walker: 43 good, 231 decent, 25 bad, 2 killed, grade: 76.2

     Pass Plays
Jason Peters: 10 good, 329 decent, 17 bad, 11 killed, grade: 74.6
Derrick Dockery: 6 good, 375 decent, 18 bad, 3 killed, grade: 74.4
Duke Preston: 1 good, 214 decent, 15 bad, 7 killed, grade: 70.3
Brad Butler: 10 good, 254 decent, 10 bad, 3 killed, grade: 75.0
Langston Walker: 3 good, 374 decent, 21 bad, 4 killed, grade: 74.1

     Easy Killer
Jason Peters: 15 killed plays (2.1% of plays), 6.5 killed drives (4.9% of drives)
Derrick Dockery: 8 killed plays (1.5% of plays, 5 killed drives (3.8% of drives)
Duke Preston: 22 killed plays (3.2% of plays), 9 killed drives (6.8% of drives)
Brad Butler: 10 killed plays (1.4% of plays), 2 killed drives (1.5% of drives)
Langston Walker: 6 killed plays (0.9% of plays), 3.5 killed drives (2.6% of drives)

Star-divide

Peters infuriated many of when he decided to sit home during all of the OTAs and training camp in a futile effort to get his contract redone. He then missed the first game and spent the first half of the season getting back to his Pro Bowl form. Peters is edging towards 80% range in run blocking. I was actually surprised to see that he has killed almost 1 of 20 drives this year. In short, his petulance cost the Bills dearly but he is indeed back to where he was at the end of last season. He may even be performing better than he was at the end of last year, a much better way to go about getting a new contract than moping at home. The drive he killed against the 49ers was the first he’d been responsible for spoiling in over a month. I suspect his percentage of killed plays and killed drives will drop by the end of the season. Of course he’ll have to overcome the 2 drives he killed against Miami the day after I wrote my prediction...

Dock seems to be a popular whipping boy on the boards. I’m guessing that it has a lot to do with the fat contract he was handed within 38 seconds of stepping foot in the Bills’ front office. A little of it seems to have to do with fat guys from UT. Whatever. He’s a solid guard, though he’s better on the line than he is in space. His 77.7% on run plays is second only to Peters. He also doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He’s killed fewer plays and than Butler, never mind that Dock has played every snap while Butler has missed considerable time. The only thing I’m worried about at the moment is that he killed one drive in each of the three games preceding the 49ers tilt. He added a killed play against Miami but no killed drives.

Preston is just awful. He didn’t play in 4 games and saw limited snaps in several others. He still managed to kill more plays and more drives than any 2 other starting linemen combined. (Yes, Butler and Peters have more killed plays together but not as many killed drives—third quarter grades, not counting Miami.) My guess is that he’s in D-range before the end of the season, something that would make me pine for Fowler… If I figured in only the snaps in which he played, Preston’s killed plays go to 5.4%. Yikes. Well, that’s only one third as scary as the 14.3% of killed drives he’d be responsible for if I looked only at games in which he saw significant action. 4-3, 3-4, some mutant thing Belicheat comes up with…..it doesn’t matter. It’s a good bet Preston can’t handle the man across from him. With Fowler on his way out the Bills will pick up a center (Woo Hoo!) to compete with Preston. My guess is Preston is either cut or 2nd/3rd string by the end of training camp.

Butler continues to be a late round gem for the Bills. He grades out at 77.3% in the run game, third place on the line. He also grades out at a flat 75% on passing downs. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, as the low number of killed plays and drives show. He’s pretty good in space and regularly takes out LBs at the second level. Buffalo makes use of his athleticism by pulling him to lead runs to the left. However, just like Preston, Butler hasn’t been on the field every snap so his numbers look a bit different than if he’d been on the field every snap. He missed essentially 4 games with an injury and has at times come out of games for short spells with various dings. That, to me, is the real concern with Butler. He missed his entire rookie year with a shoulder injury. He missed time here and there last season. He’s now missed a month this year. He’s a talented guy and a nice story but what does it matter if he can’t be counted on every Sunday?

Walker seems to catch a lot of abuse. My guess is that much of that comes from his less-than-stellar physique. (I think Parrish could hide in Walker’s spare tire, though good luck getting Parrish to sign on to that experiment.) Part of it could be due to his Oakland origins and their offensive line woes. He’s not a standout on run plays (76.2%) and certainly isn’t quick enough to keep up with speedy defenders. However, he’s killing less than 1% of plays and has only killed 2.6% of drives. In other words, when he makes mistakes they tend to be big ones but he’s only making 1 mistake every other game or so. Walker’s biggest liability is tied to his physique. He’s just too big to move and hit people in space. You will often see him sort of loping down the line on a run to the left vainly attempting to catch up to anyone in order to throw a block.

Run Direction
The Bills ran through the left C gap 55 times for 298 (5.4 ypa), 62 times through the left B gap for 277 yards (4.5 ypa), 96 times through the A gap for 233 yards (3.3 ypa), 35 times through the right B gap for 143 yards (4.1 ypa) and 54 times through the right C gap for 267 yards (4.9 ypa). Yes, I know. Numbers are nice but what do they mean? The Bills run most efficiently to the outside of the tackles (5.4 and 4.9 ypa). The Bills exceed the standard 4.0 ypa when they run through the B gaps (between Peters/Dock or Walker/Butler) with 4.5 ypa and 4.1 ypa. The Bills are significantly below the 4.0 benchmark when they run up the middle (Dock/Preston or Butler/Preston) with 3.3 ypa. Buffalo needs to be able to run the ball up the gut so I don’t mind at all that they’ve run though the A gap more than any other. However, Buffalo needs to get more per attempt in the A gap and that means they need better play from center. 3 oversized DTs reside in the AFC East so Buffalo’s center needs to be able to hold his own with the big boys at least some of the time.

Other Blockers
While I don’t keep track of TEs and RBs when it comes to blocking I have been watching them more closely of late. I’ve just been blown away by Fine. He’s tenacious, strong and uses good technique. Does anyone think it’s a coincidence that the Bills’ run game started to take off right about the time he started getting on the field? Schouman isn’t as good of a blocker and tends to try to compensate by doing things like holding or shoving his guy in the back as he runs to the ball carrier. McIntyre isn’t at all impressive as a blocker, though he will hit people…just not hard enough to, you know, stop them from making the tackle. Oh, and he has hands of stone. While the TE position has stabilized the FB position is one of dire need. Watching the McClain last rumble for the Ravens was painful, knowing Buffalo could have had him instead of, say, Ellis.

Other drive killers
There are other drive killers besides the offensive line, though reserve offensive linemen killed 8.5 drives—Fowler 6.5, Whittle 1, Chambers 1. It should surprise no one that Edwards leads the way with 24.5 given that he touches the ball more than anyone else. Losman has killed 6 and I’ve (dis)credited coaching with 13. 8 drives have ended at the gun (half or end of game) while Royal has killed 1.5. Wide receivers have killed 8.5—Evans 4.5, Parrish 2, Johnson 1, Hardy 1. Lynch has killed 6.5 drives, while Jackson had killed 2 and McIntyre 1. I am surprised to find that, at this late date, crap calls by the refs have yet to doom any Bills drive.

Poll
What should Buffalo do about the center position in the offseason?
Nothing. Maybe ignoring the problem will make it go away.
11 votes
Free agent pick up. Buffalo needs an experienced upgrade now.
157 votes
1st round pick. Why not pick a center in the 14-20 range?
63 votes
2nd round pick. Buffalo needs a pass rusher in the 1st.
92 votes
3rd round pick. Buffalo needs a pass rusher and linebacker in the 1st and 2nd.
37 votes
4th or later. Take a flyer on a guy to 'push' Preston.
6 votes

366 votes | Poll has closed

5 recs  |  Comment 129 comments |

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in regards to the poll

We should draft Alex Mack. If the Bills are willing to spend the money there will be options at DE this off-season such as Peppers or Bertrand Berry and at least pass rushing options such as Terrell Suggs. We need to be able to run the ball up the middle.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 8, 2008 11:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mack all the way baby!

With the big man up the middle we can they ride our stud backfield into the playoffs!

Suggs in FA, the guy could play SLB and sometimes maybe move him into DE.

by keysh67 on Dec 8, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Suggs weighs the same amount as our DEs do (hes actually almost 20 pounds heavier than Schobel). He is bad in coverage, average in run support and really only excels at rushing the QB. Any 4-3 team that signs him would sign him as a DE. It would be a waste of money to sign him to play LB.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 12:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not as convinced that those guys will be available though. I don’t understand how a team could let somebody like Suggs or Peppers hit the free agent market. Suggs is only 26 and Peppers is back to being a stud with 12.5 sacks in 13 games.

I would be alright with Berry, but he is going to be 34. He isn’t enough of an upgrade to give this defense what it needs. I think a stud DE and an average center would do more for this team than a stud center and an average DE would.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I probably wouldn't touch Peppers

as much as I harp on the need for a DE, Peppers is not my guy. He’s going to be 29 this offseason and will be getting a Huh-YUGE contract from someone. With the money we have tied up in the position now, we can’t afford to bring in another guy who’s best years are probably behind him. I’m also not convinced Peppers will be a consistent force anymore. I think the contract year really pushed him….

He’s still a billion times better than anything we’ve got here, so I wouldn’t totally be against it….

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 12:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Baltimore usually lets them go

The produce LBs like Denver produces RBs. They let Adalius Thomas go last year and it didn’t affect their D so I expect them to let Suggs go as well.

by keysh67 on Dec 9, 2008 9:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

plus

they franchised him this year so I have a feeling this could be the end for Suggs in B-more

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Would you say our Offense or Defense is worse?

I say our Offense. I don’t disagree that we need a DE in the worst way, but Preston is KILLING us. The Jets picked Mangold in the first round 2 years ago and look at the dividends it is pay now. Of course all of this draft talk depends on who if any FAs we can convince to play in Buffalo.

by Joe P. on Dec 9, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Forget FA

There is no way that MIN will let Matt Birk hit the market. Other than him there is nobody else. If we are within striking distance of Alex Mack, our front office better pull the trigger!

by keysh67 on Dec 9, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think center is a bigger need than DE too. I just think an elite defensive end and an average center (say drafting Greg Hardy or XDE and he comes in and has 11 sacks and the Bills sign Geoff Hangartner and draft a center in the second or third round) would make a bigger impact on this team than drafting Alex Mack in the first round and signing a Bertrand Berry type FA.

Think of it in terms of value. Say our starting center is a 1 out of 10 and our starting DE is a 4 out of 10. If you could have one player who is a 6 out of ten and one who is a 10 out of ten it wouldn’t matter which guy you put at each spot. You are still improving by 11 units total regardless of where you use the upgrades. Since I think a stud defensive end is more important than a stud center, I would prefer the Bills try and find that stud DE first and worry about the center later. Did that make sense?

Actually going a little further, if you are just worried about upgrading positions than you almost have to go DE in the first round. Preston is so awful that your average center would be a massive improvement. Kelsay is a pretty bad player in his own right, but an average DE wouldn’t be that much of an upgrade.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think a strong argument could be made that the Bills defense is good, and a DE will only make them a little better. Where as a Center would drastically improve what is considered the worst unit on the team. I’m split as to which one I would consider more important, but I’m leaning towards Center.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 9, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Bills D is not good. They just aren’t bad. We use the term mediocre around here a lot and that would be a good way to describe this unit. They aren’t very good in any area, but they aren’t particularly bad anywhere either….

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Bills defense is somewhere between good and mediocre. I think average is a better word. They do allow the 12th fewest points per game in the league.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think this team can win with defense, but I don’t think they can make the playoffs with the current center situation.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 9, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thats exactly it

we could easily have been 9-4 at this point with our defense if simply had an offense which could score

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But that still makes it seem like the team is or can only do one or the other. We are going to get a new center and we are going (hopefully) to add another DE. I don’t see how people would prefer the center to be a star than the DE to be a star.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I want them both to be stars. All I was saying is that if I could get my hands on one and only one, I would go Center.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 9, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

man this is going to be a great offseason debate. We have until April to drive each other crazy!

by kaisertown on Dec 10, 2008 9:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I look at it like this, if you could only add one elite player between the two spots and one average to slightly above average starter at the other, wouldn’t DE be more important than center?

I’m working under the assumption that Buffalo is going to upgrade (or at least add players through the draft and FA) at both spots. This isn’t like an offseason needs list where we discuss what needs to be addressed more or where we talk as if you can only improve one spot, but not the other.

So, my line of thinking is this: The Bills will find new starters at both center and guard, if one is going to be/develop into an elite player and one is going to be/develop into an average player, do you really want the center to be the elite one and the DE to be the average one? If the Bills are going to sign two free name free agents (I know they won’t), I would rather get Suggs and Meester than Birk and Berry. Or if this all happens through the draft, I would rather go after Gregg Hardy or Michael Johnson in the first and Max Unger in the second then Mack in the first and whichever DE might be there in the second.

I also think we won’t have a choice other than DE in round one because all the good ones will be gone by the 45th pick or whenever Buffalo is on the clock for the second time, but there should be some solid center options available. Do we really want to go into next season with the same DEs as this year, only we have added Matt Shaughnessy or Auston English or Brandon Graham or somebody? We have to go DE with the first pick and pray every night between the draft and September that we hit and our new DE turns into a stud.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Whatever it takes to get Mack.

I can’t vote because it’s either option 3 or 4. If we can get him in the 2nd take him there. If we have to trade back into the 1st or early 2nd do that. Even if it’s trading down in the first to get him at value.

by twoeightnine on Dec 8, 2008 11:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I would prefer that last scenario. I can’t see anyone taking a Center in the top 12 where we’ll be picking….

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 12:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and let someone trade up to snatch him away?

Screw value!!!! Get the best at your position of greatest need. The only way that changes is if there are several centers with relatively equal “grades” or if we land Birk. Then, we can take more of a chance to develop someone.

by Joe P. on Dec 9, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree…I hate the whole “we can’t pick a guy at a certain spot” because of value. While I understand don’t grossly over value a pick, you gotta go for what you need. I we pick say #12, and the best player on the board is a corner, do we draft the corner? We cant afford luxury picks. It all depends on free agnecy & blah blah blah, but we should go for what we need when we can get em. I’m not feeling the idea of risking trading down if our guy is there

There is only one NFL football team that plays in New York state...and Canada?

by MonStarr_716 on Dec 9, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's probably true

Though it’s tough to imagine a Center in the top 12. Has that happened in the past 20 years?

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The last one I remember is Mangold, but he wasn’t close to Top 12.

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jeff Faine was picked 21st by the Browns in ’03.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 9, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably not,

But what is arguably of two biggest positions of need? Most can agree on C & DE? (maybe). I am not saying a high first rounder will pan out, but I just think we should we go after who we (or the Bills front office) feel we need. No games, don’t try to be cute.

Although most teams may feel that drafting a center 12th overall is a reach, but for us…is it really?

There is only one NFL football team that plays in New York state...and Canada?

by MonStarr_716 on Dec 9, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Steve Everitt went 14th overall in 1993. Damian Woody went 17th in 1999. The Bills took Jim Richter 16th overall in 1980 …….. then moved him to guard. You have to go all the way back to 1976 to see a center taken that high when NE took Pete Brock and football was a little different back then.

Considering the Bills pathetic strength of schedule, if we lose out we will probably be picking about 10th where center simply can’t be an option. There are only 13 teams in the NFL right now with 6 or less wins. Houston is the only 6 win team and they will definitely have a better SOS, so if Buffalo loses out, 12th is actually the worst spot we could draft. San Fran, Green Bay and San Diego (it’s been a bad year for teams whose cities are two words and the first word isn’t "new") all have 5 wins.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tampa.Bay has done alright for themselves this year….

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Who voted for Preston????

Show your faces!!!!!

God, he is awful. I was thinking he wouldn’t be bad insurance for whoever our new starter is, but I don’t want him anywhere near our team next year. What a scrub.

Why, oh why, don’t we run outside more???

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 12:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

wow

GREAT post that probably took tons of work.

by pasaluki on Dec 9, 2008 2:12 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Options?

I’m wondering about specifics. I know Mack and Luigs in the draft. From what I understand, Mack could go as early as late in the first, Luigs would be an option in the second, and maybe Caldwell would be there in the third. How accurate is this?

If that’s a picture of the draft, how does FA look? Who might be available?

If we don’t go FA, I’d like to see us go for Mack. Trade down in the first to hopefully grab an extra pick, and then if we really think he’s our man, we reach a bit for him.

by Hopefulcynic on Dec 9, 2008 4:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Alex Fletcher from Stanford would be a late round option as well.......

He’s like th 10th rated Center this year…….but he also has extensive starting experience at guard….(He’s been an Outland Trophy candidate two years as well)

Just my two cents.

PIPE DREAM: Jim Harbaugh for the Bills next head coach.

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 9, 2008 4:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You’re a Stanford fan aren’t you? First Trent, then Jim Harbaugh, and now Alex Fletcher… :)

Next thing we know, you’ll be singing the praises of Kirk Chambers.

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 8:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

….and Justin Armour

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I do.....follow the Cardinal.....

it’s better than craptastic CAL…….however my real allegance revolves around Air Force – and since none of their guys can play in the NFL…….I cant pimp them…..

once the season is officially over….I’ll pimp non-Stanford folks…..(once i know what underclassmen are coming out)

but I’m just trying to give OTHER options….other than what everyone else keeps saying that is all. LOL

PIPE DREAM: Jim Harbaugh for the Bills next head coach.

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 9, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No no, it’s fine. I just noticed a pattern is all. :)

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah I hadnt even thought about it until you mentioned it.....

but those are the only cardinals as of now I will be pimping HAHA……

PIPE DREAM: Jim Harbaugh for the Bills next head coach.

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 9, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I already pine for Fowler

How do the two’s aggregate stats compare? I also read that Fowler is the only one athletically able to pull effectively from the interior linemen. Any truth to that? I like Walker better than most but i think Butler is slowly becoming the 2nd best on the line.

GO BLUE!!!

by Kumario! on Dec 9, 2008 5:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Fowler rarely pulls

When the Bills want an interior lineman to pull it’s usually Butler. Dock does on occasion but not very often. Peters will pull, particularly on misdirection plays and Walker will pull out to the right flat on a couple of specific run plays.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty sure Preston is one of the worst players in the NFL.

I’m disgusted more with his play than i ever was of another lineman. (Including Mike Williams)

GO BLUE!!!

by Kumario! on Dec 9, 2008 5:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

you may be right, but did you see some of the plays Beck made last year for MIA? man was he bad

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Couple of questions, Ron…

Could you explain how you get the percentage grades for run vs pass plays? I’m sure you’ve explained this before, but I’ve forgotten.

Also, there should be an option in the poll that says “vet FA AND first day draft pick”. That’s what I would have voted for.

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 8:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Grades

A good grade is 95, decent is 75 and bad is 55….even though I sometimes wish I could give someone a 10 for a particularly awful play. Instead, a bad play is a bad play is a bad play. It takes a good chunk of the subjectiveness out of the equation. It’s one thing to determine if a player screwed up and another to assign a percentage to just how badly they screwed up.

Here’s how the grading works, using Jason Peters’ run plays as an example…

78 good (78*95=7410), 159 decent (159*75=11925), 26 bad (26*55=1430), 4 killed, grade: 79.0

7410+11925+1430=20765 divided by 263 (number of plays) = 78.954 rounds up to 79.0

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sign Birk

draft a Center in third-7th round. Undrafted free agenst work well for me, too.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 9, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

As usual

Great work Ron. Good stuff.

Hopefully the do something about that center position this offseason. might as well start looking now……nothing going on after December 28th anyways. Which is only 19 days away. Yup 19 days left in our season.

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 10:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Butler at Center

I know that I will be ripped for saying this (I admit, I am not technically too knowledgeble — is he too tall for C?), but Butler “smells” like a center to me. He is very intelligent, and is great at run plays (per Ron); he limits his mistakes and doesn’t get blown backwards by DTs; he has also moved from tackle to guard with ease. And he is signed long-term. Guards are easy/cheap to find — centers are not. Also, any rookie center (usually) will need a lot of training and experience, so I worry about drafting one high and giving him the keys to our offense. Obviously, Butler would need time, too — but he seems to me to have the tools.

As for Ron from NM, hopefully the Bills coaching staff will review his brilliant work and match it against their own data — Brian, you have created the best off-OBD site for the Bills (Brian, Kurupt, Joe P., J2, Kaisertown, Poz — will one of you be the GM and get us out of this mess?).

by labill on Dec 9, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

We can be a community GM. Imagine how many sweet polls we could put up that way…

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Butler has an injury history

Even if he could transition to center (he has the mentality if not the frame), do you really want a guy who may let Preston back on the field due to injury?

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually Butler is too tall to play center and I wrote a fanpost about it last offseason.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2008/4/19/16626/5799

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We're all expecting a ton

In thinking management will effectively draft playmakers and needed talent. I’ve lost ALL my ability to believe they can. Lynch was a no-brainer, he doesn’t count. =)

by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 9, 2008 11:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Superb post. I'm glad you like the details

Obviously, with such a weak C, we run outside better. I have wondered if our guards have the ability to pull decently for outside runs. With a good C, I could see us running more to the outside.

everything goes better with bacon

by keuka121 on Dec 9, 2008 1:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The guards to pull...

…Butler moreso than Dock. It’s sad to say but true—the pulling guard all too often has to hurdle Preston’s carcass (or detour well behind the line to go around Preston and the DT who has pushed him back 2 yards) in order to pull to the other side of the line.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am a big Alex Mack fan too.

I can guarantee everyone that Mack, the best snapper in the college game, will NEVER snap it up his ass!!!

everything goes better with bacon

by keuka121 on Dec 9, 2008 1:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

will NEVER snap it up his ass!!!

Sounds painful

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Grading Scale,

Ron, I am curious to know how your grading scale works…

Run Plays
Jason Peters: 78 good, 159 decent, 26 bad, 4 killed, grade: 79.0
Derrick Dockery: 66 good, 208 decent, 26 bad, 5 killed, grade: 77.7
Duke Preston: 13 good, 95 decent, 72 bad, 15 killed, grade: 71.6
Brad Butler: 56 good, 135 decent, 30 bad, 7 killed, grade: 77.3
Langston Walker: 43 good, 231 decent, 25 bad, 2 killed, grade: 76.2

     Pass Plays
Jason Peters: 10 good, 329 decent, 17 bad, 11 killed, grade: 74.6
Derrick Dockery: 6 good, 375 decent, 18 bad, 3 killed, grade: 74.4
Duke Preston: 1 good, 214 decent, 15 bad, 7 killed, grade: 70.3
Brad Butler: 10 good, 254 decent, 10 bad, 3 killed, grade: 75.0
Langston Walker: 3 good, 374 decent, 21 bad, 4 killed, grade: 74.1

For example is it like a A-F type deal? With 79% being an “A” vs 71.6 % being an “F” ?

And does the scale grade out different inthe pass vs. run protection? Besides the obvious (79 is higher than 71.6), what makes the 8.4% difference so significant?

There is only one NFL football team that plays in New York state...and Canada?

by MonStarr_716 on Dec 9, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What Ron does is he grades every play by giving each player a 95 for a good play, a 75 for a decent play and a 55 for a bad one and averages it all out. He could obviously go into much more detail, but that gives you a general idea of where his numbers come from.

The reason the players get better grades for run plays than pass plays is just because of how difficult it is to stand out and get a grade of 95 in pass protection. Players just kind of rack up the decent plays by doing their job and then get pulled down by the occasional bad play.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks – I asked this same question earlier in the thread.

Do you know how killed plays are factored in? Are they zeroes, or are they left out of the final grade?

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well most bad plays end up killing the play. Ron does keep track of which players killed drives, but he doesn’t factor them into the final grades (I’m almost sure).

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...

Most bad plays don’t kill the play. Take Preston for example. He has had 87 total bad plays (God, that’s a huge number) but only (!) killed 22. Of those 22 killed plays, 9 have been drive killers. So Preston’s bad plays translate into killed plays about 25% of the time and his bad plays translate into killed drives about 10% of the time.

To illustrate, on pass #9 Walker had a bad play. He was beaten by #56 who slapped the ball out of Losman’s hand. If Losman had fallen on the ball and been touched down Walker would have been (dis)credited with killing the play. Instead, Losman picked up the ball and rolled out. He threw the ball to Lynch, who dropped it. Walker didn’t kill the play and neither did Losman. Lynch killed the play by dropping a catchable ball. Lynch also killed the drive as the reception would have been a first down.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha, yeah I guess if all of Preson’s bad plays killed the play, it would be a massacre out there. I shoud’ve quit answering questions for you while I was ahead.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

87 bad plays. He deserves an atta boy. Mother of mercy

That pass #9 was a huge momentum swing as I said earlier.

everything goes better with bacon

by keuka121 on Dec 9, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope.

Killed plays aren’t factored into the grades but stand alone, as do drive killing mistakes.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes that makes it easier.

thanks Ron for the clarification.

wow – Preston is just horrible. count me among the ones who wanted Preson instead of Fowler. I was wrong. However, we knew that Fowler wasn’t going to propel this line forward so we had to find out on Preston. I’m glad they did, now we know and hopefully they know that we need a major upgrad at the C position. i guess it worked out in the end after all. they will probably keep Preston for a backup C/G.

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

whooops

thanks Kaiser as well

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No need to thank me. I just spend way too much time on this blog and am pretty good with the search function so I can go back and look up what Ron has already said.

You’re right about it being a good thing Preston got a chance to start. I have been in the Fowler is bad, but not that bad camp for a couple of years now and actually wouldn’t have minded Preston being brought back to compete with a second or third round rookie and/or be a backup, but now I know (and hopefully the Bills do to) that neither Fowler nor Preston are rosterable players and this team needs to bring in two legit interior offensive lineman.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Isn’t that search function sweet?

I’m just too lazy to use it. :)

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wanted Preston more than Fowler too. But Preston beinga an awful player doesn’t make Fowler any better.

by thefourwinds on Dec 9, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Preston is good, so to speak, for 1 bad play out of every 5.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry for the double question...

My internet froze up on me, and decided to post whenever it felt like it.

See, all of this analysis, and actual x’s and o’s talk is why I love coming to Buffalo Rumblings so much. I have learned so much more about football this year it’s ridiculous. All the other blogs seem to filled with useless blabber…

Ron gets a rec from me, but I have one more question for you.

How did you come up with a good, working formula for you line analysis, and what made you want to even go thru the headache in first place? (i am glad you do though)

There is only one NFL football team that plays in New York state...and Canada?

by MonStarr_716 on Dec 9, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm something of a masochist

No, not really. I just like watching the battle in the trenches. The games are won and lost there. I had been watching the Bills line for years but only started documenting it in postings a couple of years ago on another website. Basically, I don’t like the “He sucks.” line from people who can’t back it up. Take Losman for example. People who think he sucks can rely on all sorts of statistics like QB rating, TD/INT ratio, yards, and so on.

Offensive linemen really don’t have statistics. So, I started to look at how I could measure them. The most logical way was to rate each play and I came up with good, decent and bad as possible rating categories. From there it was a short hop to assigning numbers to the categories, doing the math and coming up with averages. Now I have data for 14 games from last season and all but the Chargers game (I have a small sample that was televised) from this season.

It’s fun to watch guys like Butler develop and not so fun to watch guys like Preston consistently fail to get the job done.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I remember first seeing your postings on that other site last year for first time, and I was thoroughly impressed, as I am with each and every one I read here (and yes, I read the ENTIRE thing). You have actually got me watching line play (and not just the Bills) during every snap of the games I watch now. I always “knew” how important line play is, but now I really enjoy watching why, and understanding why it is so important.

Keep up the good work my friend

There is only one NFL football team that plays in New York state...and Canada?

by MonStarr_716 on Dec 10, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're exactly right, Kaisertown

Most of the times that a player gets a good grade in pass protection a screen was involved. They get to move in space and flatten people, something they can’t do when, say, Peters pushes the DE upfield and away from the QB. Occasionally, a player will do a standout job in pass protection—such as not letting the defender get his hands up or creating a gaping passing lane.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Alex Mack

I really don’t understand why the Bills would not draft Alex Mack in the first round of this upcoming draft. I’ve heard some on this blog say he is supposed to be the best center to come out of the draft in 15 years, and I’ve read on scouting websites that the kid is strong in every part of his game.

Now, while I normally would never take a center in the 1st round, as I’m sure most teams won’t, if there is ever a time or a team that needs to draft such a talent no matter what it is the Bills. Drafting a center in the first round is rare but not unheard of. These guys are taken when a team is in dire straits, as the Bills certainly are right now. I don’t care if it take trading a 2nd and 3rd round pick to get Mathias Kiwanuka to bring in a DE, but we simply need Mack.

With Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson we could not run the ball up the middle, despite having Butler and Dockery, two solid guards, and the largest o-line in football. If Turk Schonert has any chance to bounce back and if he has any brains then getting him a center could prove that he didn’t run the ball in side the redzone not because he is stupid but because he knew we would get stuffed.

Center is such a weakness it is bringing our whole offensive line down. Now is the only time in the next 30 years we should draft a center in the first and we got lucky because there are rarely 1st round talent centers.

I say, draft Mack in the first and send the giants a 2 and 3 for Kiwanuka or Roscoe Parrish and a pick for the young DE.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

draft Mack in the first and send the giants a 2 and 3 for Kiwanuka or Roscoe Parrish and a pick for the young DE

I say we give them denny, kelsay, mccargo and royal for Kiwanuka. it’ll be like a basketball trade.

here’s all this crap…give me your good guy :)

i agree with you Poz that drafting a center in the first as long as mack is there is a good idea. however, that depends on what spot we pick and of course any DE or LBs that may be a better for us at that spot. We definately need pressure on the QB and we’re not getting it. I would say that a pressure player might take priority over a center in the first this year. again…it depends on how it falls.

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My approach to the draft

1) Identify needs (C, DE, LB)
2) Identify players who fill those needs, players who are worth reaching for, and where they are likely to be taken (C-Mack and Luigs are probably the only two I’d be satisfied with)
3) Compare the lists from (2) to your draft picks
4) If your draft picks and targeted players don’t appear to match up well, see if you can trade

I think that because center is such a great need and because there is so little talent there (compared to DE or LB where missing one target still leaves you plenty of skilled players) we need to try to get our top target. Ideally we would trade back to the mid 20’s and pick up Mack there. Some might call that a reach, but if he’s our man and he won’t make it to our second round pick, then I’m all for the reach.
If we can’t get a decent trade, then I say we take the best LB or DE available in the first and pray that Mack falls. If he doesn’t, we grab Luigs.

by Hopefulcynic on Dec 9, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

WHY

in the world would the Giants even consider that trade? A starting DE for a couple of mid round picks and/or a crappy WR?

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hes not a starter

Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are their starters. The Giants will not be able to sign Kiwanuka after the money they paid to Osi, are going to pay to Tuck who may be better than Osi, and the money they are going to pay to Jacobs or Ward or both. Especially considering he IS NOT a starter.

Why would they not consider it especially as they need an OLB, one or more WRs (Plax is done and Toomer is a free agent), and a TE? This is not including secondary depth.

I think a 2nd and 3rd round is a great price for both teams. We get a starting pass rusher and they get a great deal for a guy they would probably lose in a few years anyway. Plus with the Giants talent for scouting DEs they’ll probably find a stud DE in the 2nd or 3rd we would have missed

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

NY already locked up Tuck. He signed a 5 year, 30 mil deal after the super bowl. Kiwanuka is still on his rookie contract and is locked up through 2010. I agree that he is the perfect guy to go after, bur K is probably right and that NY wouldn’t budge on a trade offer for him.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Umenyiora is the starter opposite Tuck, but he will be coming off injury. The Giants will hold onto him unless they are 100% positive that Osi isn’t 100% healthy.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 9, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Even if they know Osi will be fine, Spags loves to rotate those DEs, put them all out on the field at the same time and get really creative. With Kiwi having experience at LB, I’m sure NY will put him out there and let him blitz from various spots or even just use him as a blitzing decoy. I agree that it is very unlikely the Giants even consider trading Kiwanuka.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kiwi is signed through 2010 at less than $750K per year. With Osi injured and very questionable as to whether he’d be 100% next year, they need Kiwi. Again, why would the Giants consider that trade? They LOVE the pass rushers and won a Super Bowl because of it. They aren’t trading one of their healthy DE’s for mid rounds picks.

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

through 2010?

Damn. I was hoping it was until 2010. I was thinking they would figure they wouldn’t be able to retain him after next season and would try to get picks before losing him for nothing. Also, Osi and Tuck are so young and Kiwi isn’t yet a proven starter. 2nd and 3rd rounders aren’t technically middle round pick (well 3 maybe). The only great DE we could trade for would have to be someone not starting, ala Kiwi. I can’t think of any other DE we could even hope to trade for.

The reason I figure it may be a possibility is that before Osi went down, this offseason the Giants were rumored to be interested in possibly trading Kiwi for Deangelo Hall.

With Osi coming back, they may yet be willing to part with a role player, who will become expensive, for the right price.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

they wouldn't

it was a joke :)

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sorry Poz…that was to Kurupt. my suggestion was a joke. but i’d be down for that as a bills fan thats for sure

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no need to apologize

although if we could send that boat of crap over I’d probably be dancing in the streets drunk for a week. I do think that it is not out of the question to send a 2nd a 3rd to a non-starter.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if anything that is giving too much for him. as you said he is a non-starter, but he is a quality player so they may demand something like that. he just has studs ahead of him.

they have good drafting – thats how i’d build my team. draft dline and oline first then work from there. building from the outside in doesn’t work as far as i’m concerned.

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't focus on a center in the first round

Certainly we need better play from the center position. But to focus on drafting a center in the first round is a luxury we cannot afford. The Bills most pressing need is to improve the play of our front 7 on defense. We need to take in the first round the best available front 7 player in the draft. Preferably a DE, OLB or MLB. It should be a player that our scouts and coaches feel can come in and start immediately. If such a player doesn’t exist when we draft in the first round than the Bills should take a player at any position that they feel could come in and start. If that turns out to be a center so be it.

by gjv on Dec 9, 2008 4:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What if the DE is a freak athlete like a Michael Johnson or Gregg Hardy type who is just a little raw? What if the DE can come in and take about 60% of the snaps? Do you think that is close enough to a starter to be considered?

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

60% of the snaps " absolutely "

If we can draft a DE in the first round that the coaches feel is good enough to play in his rookie year 60% of the snaps, go for it.

by gjv on Dec 9, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

why not trade for a known improvement

The Giants are on top of the world, they have no need for expensive players who will not be starting, ala Kiwanuka behind Tuck and Umenyiora and will have a greater need for more picks especially with Plax done, Amani Toomer set to be a free agent, a need at LB and in the secondary, and an average TE in Boss. Plus, they will probably lose him to free agency soon enough after they spend the Plax money to resign Jacobs, Ward, or both.

I have no qualms drafting Mack in the first and sending our 2nd and 3rd for Kiwanuka. None at all.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

meh

I’m not totally opposed to that, but I’m not thrilled with it either. If we don’t do that, we can either use our 2nd and 3rd rounders to get a DE and LB, or we can get a DE/LB in the 1st, C (possibly, though probably not, Mack) in the 2nd, and LB/DE 3rd.

If we could get Kiwanuka for less than that, I’d be intrigued. Even a 2nd and 4th would be something I’d take in a heartbeat, but 2nd and 3rd is a high enough price that I’d need to think about it.

If we trade back in the first and get an extra pick, then I’m all for seeing if the Giants would go for this.

by Hopefulcynic on Dec 9, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

7 great reasons why Alex Mack is the TOP priority

1) Lynch is entering his third year. He is the workhorse of this team. He is the heartbeat that drives this team. Giving him a chance to do his thing should be the priority
2) Trent has shown that he can read defenses, see the blitz & make them pay and more importantly get rid of the ball quick – these are rare qualities. Because of our weak center most teams are able to blow up the middle and limit our ability to establish the run and this even with only 3 rushing, which puts way too much pressure on our rookie QB. We need to focus on becoming a smash-mouth running team, which will help develop Trent (by taking a lot of pressure off of him).
3) We play in a division of 3-4 defenses with dominant Nose Tackles (6 games per year – minimum). It is imperative that we get a top ranked center in order to give ourselves a chance.
4) The center position is currently dragging the whole line down because we have to compensate. A strong center will make everyone around him better
5) Establishing the run is the best way to reduce turnovers and control the clock. Keeping the opposing offense off the field.
6) Great centers can be dominant for well over 10years – great investment
7) Great centers rarely hit the free market, so getting them in the draft is the only way.

by keysh67 on Dec 9, 2008 4:51 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

4) The center position is currently dragging the whole line down because we have to compensate. A strong center will make everyone around him better

- Yup – can’t step up into the pocket

3) We play in a division of 3-4 defenses with dominant Nose Tackles (6 games per year – minimum). It is imperative that we get a top ranked center in order to give ourselves a chance.

- couldn’t agree more. this is a weakness and if they have studs up there at nose then we have to counter that. look at this year. you should build your team to win your divisional games. how are we doing this year at that? yeaaaaahhhhh…..staring 0-6 in the face. not good my friend. not good

by J2 on Dec 9, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thats what I'm talking about Key

way to argue the point much better than I could. Those are all excellent reasons. Couldn’t agree more, great post!

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Dec 9, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I concur

You said it perfectly.

by Hopefulcynic on Dec 9, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Those are 7 great reasons, but here are 6 great reasons for drafting a DE instead of a C.

1) DEs are WAY more expenisve, so getting one at the price of a mid first round pick would be a much smarter financial move than making a center one of the higher paid players at his position as a rookie.

2) Teams scheme and prepare for dominant DEs, but not so much for centers.

3) Centers help double team a DT on pass downs, while DEs GET double teamed on pass downs.

4) It is a lot tougher to find a stud DE with after the first round than it is to find a stud center in the middle rounds

5) A pass rush is the one thing in the NFL that consistantly forces turnovers, something our defense doesn’t do nearly enough.

6) Most importantly a DE will give everyone on the defense a better oportunity to make plays. A consistent pass rush will force the QB to make quicker decisions. The offense will have to leave TEs and RBs in to help in pass protect which makes it easier for the secondary and linebackers. Teams will start to always put their TEs and RBs on the same side to help with pass protection making the offense more predictable and allowing the D better oppurtunities to blitz the opposite side.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Brian,

I reced kaisertown and keysh67’s posts on C vs DE. This would make the basis of a great article once we know how free agency shakes out. Just an idea :-)

by Joe P. on Dec 9, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Noted. I have a little notebook I jot these things down in. Seriously, all of my post ideas come straight from y’all…

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 9, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, so you are sitting at a computer, but taking notes into a notebook???

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes. Because I can carry the notebook between computers. Screw jump drives…

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 10, 2008 6:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why we draft a C 1st overall

Two words: Kent Hull

"Where else would you rather be than right here, right now?"

by ArenZimm on Dec 9, 2008 6:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Why we draft a DE 1st overall

Two words: Bruce Smith

It's been too long ...Playoff Bound In '08!

by SPD on Dec 9, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How about

we grab Birk and Suggs via free agency and take WR Michael Crabtree with our #1 pick :-)
Well, I better get back to mixing my medication!

by Joe P. on Dec 9, 2008 7:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thats not crazy at all. The Bills could then draft a Center to develop later in the draft, and concontrate elsewhere in the mean time, (TE, DT, O-Line depth)

You not as dumb as you make yourself sound Joe.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 9, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the vote of confidence

It would be a dream start to the 2009 season. Now we just need to figure out the QB situation :-)

by Joe P. on Dec 9, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gotta keep losing and then trade some of our current wins for losses to get that high in the draft. Crabtree is top 5….

I will say this….there is a WR in this draft, likely a mid 2nd rounder, that I would trade Hardy for in a heartbeat. His name is Kenny Britt, he hails from Rutgers unfortunately….

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 9, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Buffalo needs to get their top rated center

A lot of people have posted good reasons for the Bills to get their top rated center. Now, that top rated center could be a free agent (not terribly likely given that Buffalo will give Peters his new deal this offseason, possibly Edwards’ and isn’t Jackson a UFA?) or someone in the draft. It could well be that the guy they target in the draft isn’t Mack. They may have someone else rated higher. I don’t watch enough college games to really know. Besides, with the creampuffs big schools play it’s tough to gauge the level of competition.

My preference would be for Buffalo to draft a stud center and let him start. Where the Bills draft him is a different question entirely. If they believe they can get a guy in the 2nd who is as good or better than Mack then so be it.

I do wish we could dispense with the ‘value’ talk. If Buffalo drafts a center at #7 overall and he turns into the next Kent Hull no one will care that he was taken that high. All that will matter is that Buffalo got a center for 10-15 years. It doesn’t matter to me at all what the pundits say. You may recall, they ripped the Bengals for taking Levi Jones 10th (?) some years ago. He’s been a good LT for them for quite some time. Who got the last laugh? I know the Bengals got ‘value’ even if no one thought so at the time.

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 7:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Fred Jackson has actually only been in the league for 2 years, so he isn’t even an RFA. The Bills have exclusive rights on Jackson. Greer is the big UFA name for Buffalo.

Here is the thing with value, The difference between Alex Mack (who Buffalo could take in the first) or Jonathon Luigs or Max Unger (who Buffalo could take in the second) is probably considerably less than the difference between a guy like Gregg Hardy and Michael Johnson vs. Austin English, Larry English, Brandon Graham, Matt Shaughnessy, Connor Barwin or whoever is the best guy left after 40 picks. That’s what the value argument is all about and it is a very valid argument. I think the top 5 guys (Orakpo, Hardy, Johnson, Selvie and Brown) are long gone by the time the Bills pick a second time, but the second best center is probably still on the board.

by kaisertown on Dec 9, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know

I’m no expert, but if Mack really is the type of C who only comes around once a decade or so, then I’d say just the opposite. Unless the DE we would be picking is also one of the best prospects in years, then I’d say the value argument favors Mack. 2nd round DEs can be pretty good (Schobel) but once in a decade players at their position are, well, rare. Now maybe Mack is overhyped, but if he’s as good of a prospect as some have suggested, then the relative value argument favors him. I guess I look at how value decreases in the position. At DE, there are so many good players that the dropoff between any two given players might be negligible, whereas at C there are a lot fewer prospects, and so passing up on one may cost you a chance at your starter.

I think the final thing to consider here is where we pick. I think I’m not alone in saying that the optimal position is to trade back and take Mack (assuming that the Bills have similar ratings and projections; Ron makes a valid point) with a late first round pick. If we can’t get a decent trade and do wind up picking at around 12, then I’d have no objection to taking a DE.

by Hopefulcynic on Dec 9, 2008 8:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

With the DTs in the division...

….do you really want the second best center prospect?

by Ron From NM on Dec 9, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was on the DE bandwagon last year

I wish I could be on it this year. I hope the Bills address at least one of these positions in free agency and make this issue way less interesting.

by Joe P. on Dec 9, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said Ron

We need to draft the center we target and I’m betting that is Mack. I have been roaming the net for several hours now looking at center prospects and here is what I have found, so far.
NFL scouts think Mack is the best lineman in this draft (other than 3 OT’s who always get more respect). Center is the Rodney Dangerfield position. No respect. BUT, Mack is different. He stands out from the crowd for his leadership, intelligence and work ethic.
He has led a Cal offense that has a dominant running game on an otherwise meh team. He is a devastating run blocker who can move any pile either to the right or left. He excels at blocking in space and loves to take on players beyond the line of scrimmage.
He is the model of a workout warrior. I’m guessing that he will have the lowest body fat measurement of any offensive lineman at the combine. He is a physical BEAST. Google him in images and look at some pics. He has zero belly fat. Then Google Unger and Luigs. They look like centers. Mack doesn’t.
Speaking of other C prospects, I found that scouts feel Luigs and Unger both do not have the lower body strength that Mack has. Especially with Luigs, he gets eaten up and pushed around in tight quarters. Mack creates a lane. A real bulldozer.
The only percieved weakness in Mack is his pass blocking. He simply has not done a lot of that at Cal. But scouts think, with his natural gifts, that he will improve his pass blocking skills quickly.
He is a model citizen off the field. Very high character. Not one to draw attention to himself. He had 2 offers from colleges and paid his way to Cal to tryout for them. Is this not a Bills type player?
Scouts think he will come in and quickly take over the leadership role of whatever line he is with. And as Keysh said, he will command his line for 10yrs+. He is seen as the best “can’t miss” prospect in this draft. Scouts compare him to Birk and Mangold.
The center position is strong if you like Unger and Luigs. Otherwise, it’s Mack and Caldwell (whom I watches vs Fla.). Caldwell also has great leadership and great lower body strength.
The DE class is deep next year. I have roamed on that position too and no DE stands out like Mack does. I would not take Orakpo (tweener, LB). Michael Johnson just started playing football in his junior year! A bit raw and takes plays off. Hardy has enormous potential if he can turn on his motor. He also takes plays off. Selvie is intriuging. But his overall size bothers me. He started as a freshman at 215lbs. But I do like him. Another name moving up the boards is Everett Browm from FSU. Not much on the web on him. But seen as steady. Shaughnessey is moving up too. Me thinks we could land a very good DE in round 2.
When roaming, it appears that both Philly and Arizona want a center. So, it is entirely possible that both Mack and Caldwell will not be t here in round 2.
The best way to help our D is to finally create a dominant run game and rule the time of possesion. Mack would have a very beneficial influence on the entire line, especially the guards next to him. AND, it would make Marshawn very happy. If we do not improve our Oline with a stud C, I predict he will walk after his rookie contract expires. Get Mack, and he stays with us. I rest my case.

everything goes better with bacon

by keuka121 on Dec 9, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

tks Keuka!

Good research! Didn’t realize that Philly & Arizona were also in the market.

by keysh67 on Dec 9, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good work

Leadership along the OL? Yeah, that’s something we need A LOT of. Mack sounds like the type of guy who can not only excel at his position, but also rally his fellow linemates to play better. Sign me up….

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 10, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also….I think Everette Brown ends up a top 15 pick…

Regarding Philly and Arizona…Philly has two first round picks, so that stinks for us if we don’t take Mack with our pick. I can’t see them taking Caldwell in the 1st, same w/AZ. He’d be there for us in round 2, for sure….and maybe even round 3…..

~K

by Kurupt on Dec 10, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I still kills me ...

That the Colts draft 3 … 3 centers last year and we can’t draft one?!??!?!?!?!??!?!?!?

Also, if we had picked Jason Brown, who is now an all-pro center for the Ravens (and went to my alma mater UNC) instead of Dook Preston, we wouldn’t be in this predicament.

by sabre74kkn on Dec 10, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The made one of them a Guard (Mike Pollack) so they took Lineman, not just centers.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 10, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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