[editor's note, by Brian Galliford] Promoted from the diaries, kaisertown takes an excellent look at where Buffalo Bills QB J.P. Losman could end up should the Bills trade him. Great work, kaisertown - and remember, keep these diaries coming, folks. I love letting y'all do the front page dirty work. End Update
First, let's examine the draft day trades involving established players being moved for draft picks in the 2007 draft:
OAK sent Randy Moss to NE for pick 110 (fourth round)
SEA sent Darrell Jackson to SF for pick 124 (fourth)
DET sent Mike Williams and Josh McCown to OAK for pick 105 (fourth)
KC sent Dante Hall and pick 84 to STL for pick 82 and pick 148 (fifth)
The most intriguing (and relevant) trade was Josh McCown and Mike Williams to Oakland for the sixth pick in the fourth round. To see if the Bills could get similar value we need to compare McCown to Losman.
YDS comp% TD/INT QBrating
Losman (07) - 1204 - 63.4 - 4/6 - 76.9
Losman (06) - 3051 - 62.5 - 19/14 - 84.9
Mccown (07) - 1151 - 58.4 - 10/11 - 69.4
Mccown (05) - 1836 - 60.4 - 9/11 - 74.9
-McCown did not play in 2006-
Mike Williams was certainly not a throw in and the Raiders valued him highly when making the trade, but still this looks very favorable for the Bills. McCown flashed potential in Arizona; however, he was very inconsistent. The Raiders were clearly trading for a stopgap QB considering that McCown didn't take a snap in 06 and their recent selection of JaMarcus Russell. Losman has the potential to be more than just a stopgap if someone believes in the success he had in 2006. This is the biggest positive as I see it, but there are several negatives as well.
My biggest concern is that teams won't see Losman as a big enough upgrade over what they already have or what is available on the free agent market. How much better is Losman than FA quarterbacks like Rex Grossman, Cleo Lemon or Billy Volek? Is there enough of a gap in talent to give up a third round pick? There might be if someone sees Losman as a starter, but if teams are looking to find a quarterback to compete with a rookie or provide insurance for a young starter a FA might make more sense. Wouldn't a team rather have Rex Grossman as their starter the first six games of the season and then have him as the backup than give up a good pick? Another concern of mine is that there are a limited number of teams in the market for a quarterback like Losman.
The QB Market
The Patriots, Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams (that's 18 teams) all have established starters. Things can change before the draft, but right now none of these teams would consider trading a third round pick for Losman. The Jets have a young QB (Kellen Clemens) and a veteran backup (Chad Pennington) already. The Redskins have a starter in Jason Campbell who shows some promise. Detroit has Jon Kitna and drafted a QB in the second round last year. So add the Jets, Redskins and Lions to the list - that's 21 teams set at quarterback.
The teams still left are: Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee, KC, Oakland, Chicago, Minnesota, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and San Fran.
Tennessee obviously has Vince Young so they would be looking to aquire a backup/insurance. I think Minnesota wants Tarvaris Jackson to be the starter so they are in the same boat. Oakland might be looking for a stopgap for Russell and Tampa Bay has a good but aging starter (Jeff Garcia) and might be looking to groom a replacement, but I can't see any of these teams trading a valuable pick for Losman when the available FA quarterbacks could fill the same role. That leaves six potential teams to trade with. I will go over them one at a time.
Miami - In the division, so a trade would be tough. Has a young QB in John Beck, but with new management it is tough to say what the Dolphins will be looking for at QB.
Kansas City - Has a young QB in Brodie Croyle that they claim is the future, but he could use some competition and the Chiefs could use a backup plan in case he fails.
Baltimore - New coaching staff could go in a number of different directions. McNair seems done. Boller is under contract for one more season and Troy Smith has some pedigree and showed some promise at the end of the season.
Chicago - Still has Brian Griese and Kyle Orton under contract, but are desperate for a QB. Rumors are they will make a run at McNabb; maybe Losman makes sense as a backup plan.
Atlanta - All of the quarterbacks on their roster are bad. They need to upgrade big time by bringing in a rookie and probably a vet to compete.
San Francisco - An interesting situation with a potential number one overall bust and an old, useless Trent Dilfer. San Fran could go a number of directions.
I simply can't see the Bills trading within the division. I think KC will give Croyle a year as the starter to prove himself. I suspect Baltimore, Atlanta and Chicago will all draft high-profile rookie quarterbacks. This doesn't leave many options for Losman. Atlanta makes sense as I could see Losman getting a number of starts while they groom a rookie. San Fran is a sleeper option for me as well, but I just don't see any team willing to give the Bills a third round pick especially considering the teams that may have trade interest all have high picks. A fourth round pick seems more likely, but isn't a sure thing either. Personally, I would be happy trading Losman for a top 10 pick in the fourth round similar to the McCown trade.