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Potential Bills Free Agent: WR Ernest Wilford

Wilford could cash in big as a free agent (Rotoworld)

Biggest off-season need for the Buffalo Bills? Apparently, the restructured front office at One Bills Drive believes it's wide receiver. As user SP lets us know in this diary, Solomon Wilcotts of Sirius radio is reporting this evening that the Bills' front office personnel are "enamored" with free agent wideout Ernest Wilford, and that he will be their top target when free agency begins at midnight on February 29.

Big Cat Country's Take
Let's get right to it, then - who out there knows Ernest Wilford the player better than River City Rage, head blogger at SB Nation's Jaguars blog, Big Cat Country? Very few people, that's who. RCR is a long-time friend of this site, and he was kind enough to give us an incredibly in-depth look at Wilford as a player and his time in Jacksonville. With the Sirius report in mind, I believe you'll find what RCR has to say about Wilford particularly encouraging.

Rather than the usual question and answer format we've used on previous free agent interviews, RCR has provided us with a complete write-up of Wilford's strengths and weaknesses, his impending free agency, and his time in Jacksonville. It's incredibly revealing; please, enjoy this read:

So you'd like a look at Ernest Wilford? I'm pretty jealous, actually. The Jaguars' situation at wide receiver is complicated to say the least, and because of that we're going to let one of my favorite players walk away and become a free agent. The first question that comes to mind from your perspective would have to be, "If he's so good, why is he leaving?". It's easy - we've got two young receivers coming off of Injured Reserve, two first round pick wide receivers that showed signs of life, and last year's big free agent signing in Dennis Northcutt. That's five guys right there, and considering that the Jaguars probably go after another FA in the off-season, as well as one somewhere in the draft, we just can't reasonably sign Wilford if we plan on doing anything to fix our receivers.

But that's all Jaguars insider stuff and probably not relevant to the Buffalo perspective. So what would you be getting out of Wilford?

1. Consistency on third down. Wilford, like most of Jacksonville's wide receivers, gets an occasional case of the drops. Wilford, to his credit, is fantastic on third down. He makes the catch and finds a way to make sure he's far enough down the field to convert. While he's not fast, he can out muscle just about any defensive back. Remember, he's a big dude for a WR (6-4, 223 lbs). If you need six yards, send Ernest over the middle or to the corner and he can make a play. He's got very good body control for a receiver of his size. Ernest had 35 conversions for first downs in '05, 27 in '06, and 35 last season.

2. Injury Free and Mistake Free. For such a physical player, Ernest stays healthy and performs. He's only missed one game as a Jaguar, and that was all the way back in his rookie season. He's reliable, if not spectacular. He's only fumbled the ball once in his career, and he's typically good about batting a ball away from the defensive back if he can't catch it himself. I don't have the numbers to show this, but I don't recall ever seeing Wilford blow a play that led to an interception in the last two seasons.

3. A second or third option. Ernest is going to bring good hands and a powerful physical force to your offense, but he's not a speedy deep threat that's going to give offensive coordinators nightmares. Ernest is the sort of player that helps you keep drives alive, but if you're looking for an explosive scoring threat or yards machine, you should look elsewhere. Remember this with Wilford if the Bills open their checkbook for him: Ernest has never caught more than 45 balls or 600 yards in one season, and only averages 3.5 TDs per season. If you're looking to open up your offense, Ernest might not be the right guy.

So there you go, Ernest Wilford in a nutshell. I hate to see him go, I really do. He's a good guy, no off the field problems, keeps his nose clean and all that good stuff. If he does strap on the Blue and Red, I just hope to see him score lots of touchdowns against the Patriots for you.

-Chris

Discussion Time
I'd once again like to publicly thank Chris (RCR) for providing such excellent insight into, apparently, Buffalo's top free agent target. At this stage, this information is invaluable.

Clearly, in this day and age of the NFL - when teams are so rich that they keep their favorites, thus diluting the free agent pool - no free agent prospect is going to be perfect. Wilford is as close to what the Bills need - an immediate-impact physical presence in their receiving corps - as you can probably find at this point. Sure, there are more enticing names. There are always more enticing names. But in terms of immediate value, Wilford might be the best wideout for the Bills to target.

I like how Wilford meshes with the current wideouts. It gives them a quartet of differently-skilled players: Lee Evans is the home run threat; Wilford would be the chain-moving red zone threat to take over the middle of the field; Josh Reed is the guy who makes you pay on underneath routes if you forget about him; and Roscoe Parrish is the gadget player who can turn any touch into a big play. Perhaps most importantly of all, Wilford is healthy, he's got great character, he works very hard as a down-field blocker, and he'd free up Lee Evans to do what he does best: run.

Feel free to leave your thoughts on Wilford, the Wilcotts report, or the RCR/Big Cat Country report in the comments section. This is an interesting way to cap off a Monday in early February, that's for sure.

Jaguars WR Ernest Wilford
Year G Rec Yds Avg TD FL
2004 15 19 271 14.3 2 0
2005 16 41 681 16.6 7 0
2006 16 36 524 14.6 2 1
2007 16 45 518 11.5 3 0
TOT 63 141 1994 14.1 14 1

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That was quick
Thanks Brian. I would have to say I too am really starting to take a liking to Wilford he is the guy who does all the little things right. Last year one of biggest problems on offense was consistency...ie. 3rd down conversion. We had way too many 3 and outs so I think Ernest would be the perfect fit, and I hope this comes true on the 29th.
Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP on Feb 18, 2008 6:32 PM EST   0 recs

3rd down
I think Josh Reed had a similar number of third down conversions last year, and yet it didn't seem to help our offense score many points. Wilford does seem to do things the right way, but I hope to find a receiver in FA or the draft that can make plays. As Chris from RCR stated, "Ernest is the sort of player that helps you keep drives alive, but if you're looking for an explosive scoring threat or yards machine, you should look elsewhere."

Outside of Bryant Johnson's potential, I don't think the option for that type of player is available in free agency. I Hope we will make a short-term acquisition in FA, and then look for a potential playmaker in the second or third round.

by jmorris0823 on Feb 18, 2008 7:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

3rd down conversion
Actually, Reed had just 13 receptions on third down with 10 conversions last year, while Wilford had 19 receptions for 17 first downs. Plus he was 2 for 2 on fourth down.

Here's a good stat about Wilford. In his career, on third/fourth down and less than 11 yards to go, he has 42 receptions... for 42 first downs.

by Krenn on Feb 18, 2008 8:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

thanks
Thanks for the correction, not sure why I thought it was closer. Either way, I just hope we find an impact receiver somewhere this offseason.

by jmorris0823 on Feb 18, 2008 10:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Good points
I thought Josh Reed was a clutch 3rd down WR as well this year and I agree with your points Jmorris.  But thanks also for those stats on Wilford, Krenn.  Very interesting.

by Kumario! on Feb 19, 2008 8:47 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I like him...
Him and a rookie, and we will be set as far as I am concerned. While he may not have spectacular stats, he is the type of WR we are missing, where as in Jacksonville, they were missing some speedy guys with separation ability. He would be a great addition.
The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Feb 18, 2008 6:53 PM EST   0 recs

Can he be a legitimate #2?
Can he be the guy to get 800 yards + 7 TDs a year for us?  Or has he pretty much maxed out his potential?  Personally I see him as one of the best #3s and a marginal to decent #2.  Honestly, I would loved to be proved wrong, but I just can't see him being much more effective than he was for the Jags.  Wouldn't mind to see him here, but am more enamored with Kelly, Sweed, and Hardy that offer potentially more complete games.  These guys are playmakers over the middle and over the top as well. (except possibly Sweed)

If the Bills feel they need their 1st and/or 2nd to be defensive, or they fall in love with a TE prospect, Wilford seems like a solid option.

I just really want Drayton Florance first.

by Kumario! on Feb 18, 2008 7:38 PM EST   0 recs

Wilford
What he does is the little things that will help free up both Lee and Roscoe to make more big plays. This team has the big time play-makers, Wilford and a pass catching TE will help open them up to make the big plays.
Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 18, 2008 8:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Thats absolutely right
sireric, this is the type of guy we know our FO loves and the type of player who will do the little suttle things to our anemic offense improve drastically.
Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP on Feb 18, 2008 8:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Two big FAs
I see the Bills getting two good players in FA, and if they see a WR they like for rd 2, or that they can trade down and get, plus add Wilfork as their big man, I like that idea. Wilfork is solid, and alot of what we saw the Jags blog guy write about him makes him look even better. I think his production, being mediocre, and Josh Reed-esque, is because of their WR corps not being diversified. Seems like the Jags had 3 big WRs, and much like having all small WRs, like the Bills, it just doesn't work, especially without a clutch TE. Now, the Bills might not take Wilfork, but to me he is the best option, without going crazy with salary, that is out there. If wqe cut Price, and then get Wilfork for minimally more money (we all thought Price got too much money) and then get a good draft pick, then we are gold.
The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Feb 18, 2008 8:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Price
He already was cut, just last week.
Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 18, 2008 8:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I know...
If he is gone, which I know he is, then we can get a good WR in free agency, maybe Wilford, for not too much more money, and then draft a guy in the first or 2nd. Our offense is terrible, we need more than one piece, for sure.
The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Feb 18, 2008 10:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

We do need more than one piece on Offense...
We need two we need a guy like an Ernest Wilford t help move the chains and help in the red zone, and we need a TE to help open up the middle of the field for a signing like Wilford...BOOM....Dynamite!
Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP on Feb 18, 2008 11:26 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I here ya
but I just don't see Florence coming to Buffalo, typically Wilson just does not like to spend money on CB's. I see us taking a CB in the 1-3 rounds and seeing what Youboty has for one more year. With that being said I am all about Wilford, he would really help us keep those chains moving.
Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP on Feb 18, 2008 8:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

another issue
Something that concerns me with the potential acquisition of Wilford or a similarly situated wr is our propensity to overpay. If we do decide to hit Wilford or another wr with a big first-day offer, and they accept, we will create a situation similar to Schobel/Kelsay.

Last year, we overpaid Kelsay in FA and then felt that we had to pay Schobel way too much money to compensate. Lee will be a FA next year, and if we intend to keep him as a number 1 for the future, we will have to pay him a lot more than Wilford. If we overpay for Wilford, then we will overpay (even more) for Lee.

Lee is a very good wr, but his decline last season and his lack of ability to go over the middle and break tackles makes his status as a franchise wr questionable. Unfortunately our lack of weapons at the receiver position makes losing our only real threat hamstrings our position.  

by jmorris0823 on Feb 18, 2008 8:50 PM EST   0 recs

i think that...
I think that is an amazingly understated point.  

I'll admit that I'm not completely sold on Wilford, but I wouldn't hate it if Buffalo picked him up.

What I am concerned about is how much money the Bills are willing to offer a guy that has never been a starter in the NFL.

As you mentioned, If the Bills over-pay Wilford, they'll have to do the same thing for Evans.  The Kelsey/Schobel contract situation is the perfect example you raise!  

I love Evans but as some around her noted, he lacks some skills to be a truely elite receiver in the NFL (kinda like Schobel's lack of size and skills against the run to truely make him a dominate DE).  Wilford may be a good addition, but he may not be worth the money he'd get.  I don't think anyone would argue that Kelsey isn't at the very least a decent starter, but a decent starter making a ton of money equales poor value.

I think the Bills would be wise to learn from their past mistakes and not fall into the same traps as they have before...

John I.

by jri111 on Feb 19, 2008 12:23 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

How do we know?
The Kelsey/Schobel contract situation is a great point, and if the Bills give Wilford a huge contract they most certainly will have to give Evans a that much bigger raise. BUT How do we know that the Bills are going to give Wilford a huge contract? Everyone seems convinced that the Bills are going to overpay for Wilford, I've seen nothing that indicates that. Where does that come from?
Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 19, 2008 7:14 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

overpay
It comes from the fact that they overpaid for Walker and Dockery last year. It also comes from the fact that it sometimes takes extra money to get FAs to come to Buffalo, especially since we haven't been to the playoffs in almost a decade. Finally, it comes from the fact that you always overpay early in FA. The market always pushes players with a lot of suitors into a salary range that is above their value. Considering the limited WR FA pool, Wilford will get paid by somebody, and if it is a big contract, hopefully it wont be the Bills.

by jmorris0823 on Feb 19, 2008 1:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Am I Alone On This?
One of the main problems with the Bills' offense in 2007 was the lack of threats in the passing game, besides Lee Evans.  Threat implies "strike fear".

Let's say that the Bills do acquire Ernest Wilford and draft a WR or TE in the 3rd round, like many fans are suggesting.

Then the Bills would feature Lee Evans, Ernest Wilford, Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish, Robert Royal, Teyo Johnson, and a 3rd round player as the primary pass receivers in 2008.  Again, besides Lee Evans, who else in this new and improved group will defenses have to fear or respect?  Who else will defenses have to be concerned about?  Nobody.

Back to square one.

Although I suppose Marshawn Lynch could have a similar impact in the passing game as Brian Westbrook, but that is still not good enough.  Or the Bills could get lucky and have a Marques Colston fall into their lap.

I want the Bills to eventually be a dominant team.  If I were the Bills' decision-maker, disappointment would not even begin to express my feelings regarding the 2007 offensive futility.  I would not want to be associated with that ever again.  I wouldn't want to experience anything even remotely close to that for a long time, and my personnel decisions would reflect that.  With respect to offensive playmakers, I would look forward to the draft.  Screw free agency and overpaying for Average Joe's.  What else is there?  Something decent...

Roy.  Williams.  

A rare opportunity (most teams in their right mind would want to keep an elite player like Williams and lock him up long term).  The Bills must take advantage.  Does anyone else feel the way that I do?

by Fort Worth on Feb 18, 2008 9:33 PM EST   0 recs

Why not...
NOting that it is the exception, but the Saints WR (name slipping) that they got in the 7th rd was a threat. As well, what would Wilford demand financially? More than Price? How much more? We could get a 1st rd receiver and Wilford...maybe.
The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Feb 18, 2008 10:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

totally agree about Williams...
I completely agree about Williams, but the important thing to remember is that it takes two to tango and that other partner (the Detroit Lions) may not be willing to dance.

If the Bills have even the slightest chance to get a guy like Roy Williams, I would hope that they would make every effort to do so.  I have to admit though, I am not encouraged.

As far as free agents go, I tend to agree with your assessment about "overpaying for averagejoes."  I am all for spending money on free agents and I hope the Bills are major players in that department, however, I don't want them to overpay for a player simply becuase he is the best alternative in a depleted pool.  For example, I'm not really thrilled with any of the free agent WR's, LB's, or TE's (except Crumpler).  For that reason, I would rather have Buffalo pursue a WR via trade and LB and TE via the draft.

I see value at both DT (Corey Williams) and CB (Flroence and a number of others) and for that reason I would be all for 'showing them the money.'

My biggest fear is that the Bills go out and throw big money at unproven vets like Wilford and bypass their opportuntity to get true difference makers in free agency.

John I.

by jri111 on Feb 19, 2008 12:32 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Keep in mind
Two things: the Lions don't want to trade Williams, and Jauron is only looking to build an efficient offense. An efficient offense would have won the Bills 9 or 10 games last season; Wilford is a big step in the right direction toward that goal.

I understand that most people want their team to be the Pats or Colts, but we have to have a winning foundation before making that jump. We're close to finishing that foundation, and Wilford could be a big part of it.

Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Feb 19, 2008 7:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Key Word/Concept
Jauron is "only" looking to build an efficient offense.  Unfortunately, this may be true.  That makes me hang my head and shake my head in disappointment.

The NFL is a highly competitive league.  Why settle, ever?  Why wait until later to build a dominant team?  As young as the Bills are, the window of opportunity, in this league and in this era, is smaller than ever.  Smaller than many fans realize or will acknowledge.  This isn't the 1980's.  You don't have the same kind of time to construct a team.  By the time the Bills realize what they need, will it be too late?

Does anyone else see it my way?

by Fort Worth on Feb 19, 2008 10:01 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I miss the K-Gun
I would love for the Bills to have a great offense as much as the next guy, but If the Lions are not willing to trade Williams (as I have read recently) Then who is available that can give the Bills the offense similar to the Pats or Colts? If you want to wait for a kid from the draft to develop, that is only wasting valuable time that you say we don't have.

Sometimes rather than making one big step at one position, you can take a bunch of small steps all-around and that can get you closer to being a better team.

The Bills had a terrible offense last year, YET they still finished 7-9. Is it so hard to imagine that with less injuries, and some smaller adjustments to the offense, (rather than one big splash) that this team could be 11-5? Four more wins is not that far off.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 19, 2008 10:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

i agree brian
the problem is that often times people want to add rims to their god awful cars.

you need a foundation in order to exploit big talent.

look at the redskins and the raiders. the redskins sign a big name impact maker almost every year, and the raiders HAD randy moss, and a lot of other highly touted talent.

but both teams are inefficient, mistake-prone teams.

i hate to say slow and steady wins the race.

but slow and steady wins the race.

by sri on Feb 19, 2008 4:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

thats exactly right
I was just about to respond to Fort Worth saying something similiar.  You can only take one step at a time.  Another example is what San Fran tried to do with thier defense last year.  Big overhauls simply don't work.  The Bills do need to develop a big-time offensive star.  We thought Evans was going to become that player, but it doesn't look like he will ever be a truly dominant player.  Maybe Trent or Marshawn will develop into dominant players or maybe the Bills will draft a wide out who will one day be the next Buffalo great.  The point is quick fixes usually blow up as quickly as they were put together.

All that said, if Roy Williams is available, the Bills better at least try to acquire him.

by kaisertown on Feb 19, 2008 10:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The thing about housebuilding...
is that these days to keep costs down, people are using "Contstruction Grade" particle board, instead of solid ply-wood. Now, I think Wilford is good old plywood, not sexy, not cheap, but damn it is durable and consistent. I think while he isn't a flashy guy, he makes the plays he needs too, and most importantly, he likes to run block, a skill our little receivers have trouble with sometime. And big runs are ALWAYS sprung with good down filed blocking by lineman and wideouts.

We may end up overpaying him, and if it is only in the 10-15% range, I say do it. He is a good charecter player (which young teams always need) and he is a good effort, consistent guy. Since we would be looking to throw more often, I would say his stats tick up a bit more than they were with the Jags, and he might not suffer the drops so much as he would feel honored to be our #2, rather than a 3rd option of three of the same type of player. I hope we get him and Drayton, those are great veteran foundation players to build around.

So how done was Pat Williams when we let him go Tommie boy??? Stick a fork in him level right?

by WABillsfan on Feb 20, 2008 1:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wilford
I often forth worth's sentiments about homing in on the draft for our offensive playmakers and all of our playmakers really.  It is just so damned interesting how FA in the NFL is one of those deals where players consistently get overpaid and often times underperform.  The whole key to FA IMO, is to pick up guys that can transition to your team and hardly notice they are new.  The veterans that can come in and do what you have seen them do in the past.  A young team can only go so far.  

That all said.  Wilford is a guy I'm all for.  He is tall, athletic and I think he has a little "nasty" to him.  Plus I saw him pluck a few big 3rd down slant routes out of the air with his big bear hands.  I like that.  Not sure if he would be a great red zone threat but think he would open it up for our fast little guys i.e. Evans, Roscoe.  You need that OPTION of fade route/jump ball.  That can make the safety come over and open up underneath for slots/TE's/RB's.

I like it.  Think this FA acquisition is a MUST.  

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Feb 18, 2008 11:12 PM EST   0 recs

would help the bills overall
when it comes to the who we draft signing Wilford would help Buffalo considerably, although I don't think he could come close to what Malcome Kelly could do for our offense.  If we had our WR situation handled with Wilford we could draft either Keith Rivers or Connor in the first round and if we were lucky enough we could draft TE Fred Davis in the second round who I think would have a greater impact on our offense than any other player available possibly could

by ArenZimm on Feb 19, 2008 9:34 PM EST   0 recs

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