Draft Thoughts

by Fort Worth on Mar 18, 2008 1:52 AM EDT

I would like to save the Rumblings Community some time, energy, and future disappointment by promoting awareness of the probability that all of the Bills' roster needs will not be properly addressed in the upcoming draft.

Now, take a deep breath.

Please do not misinterpret my initial statement. Obviously I am hoping for and not ruling out the possibility that the Bills can get 8 future Pro Bowlers out of this draft. However, I am encouraging everyone to acknowledge the probability. In addition, my statement says nothing about making the playoffs in 2008.

This is a league-wide challenge that is not exclusive to the Buffalo Bills. Many teams are in a similar situation as the Bills: team needs exceed team resources. In no particular order, the Bills need two wide receivers, a defensive end, a cornerback, a strong safety, a tight end, a center, and a defensive tackle, not to mention overall team depth. Many of these players need to be very good players. Although they currently have 8 draft picks, most drafts only yield about 3 good players. Just because a position of need is drafted, in any round, does not mean that the position of need is properly addressed. Essentially, not everyone is going to be happy. When push comes to shove, something has to give. Unless they get a Jared Allen in the fourth round and a Marques Colston in the seventh round, I don't see any likely way around it. Unfortunately, some positions are likely going to have to wait until later (next year) to be properly addressed.

I think the Bills should select Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB, Tennessee State) in the first round, Tyrell Johnson (SS, Arkansas State) in the THIRD round, and trade their fifth round pick to Tampa Bay for WR Michael Clayton. Honestly at this point, I would be pretty happy with that. Additionally, an elite WR or TE needs to come from somewhere in this draft. As I mentioned, some positions are likely going to have to wait until later to be properly addressed. Tough pill to swallow.

I think everyone, including myself, would like the Bills to trade down in the first round with a team such as Dallas. This seems like such an easy solution, but in reality it is probably a pipe dream.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

Everybody goes through this

Every team has fans with these feelings before the draft. Everybody gets all puffed up that their team is going to have a stellar draft and change the fortunes of the team forever. But you just have to remind people that of the 8-10 guys drafted, probably only two will ever amount to anything. Tough to swallow, but the truth.

I have to say, I don't really like that draft. IMO; WR, TE, and CB are our three biggest needs (in order). Gimme: Sweed, Davis, & Cason.

by RabidBuffalo on Mar 18, 2008 3:30 AM EDT reply actions

Look at the '06 draft

Here was who the Bills took:
Whitner(good)
McCargo9good)
Youbouty(TBD)
Simpson(good)
Williams(good)
Butler(good)
Ellison(decent but needs size)
That was the first 7 picks. I'll take this kind of depth and talent again. The players we take this year don't have to be All-Pros, just solid ball players who can fill in for some needs but also do a solid job of backing up the inevitable injured players.

by jj24 on Mar 18, 2008 7:35 AM EDT reply actions

You're right

You can't always count on every pick making the team, or even making a substantial impact in their first year. jj24 brings up a solid point about the Bills '06 draft, but you can't count on that. I think it's safe to say that when the season starts, there will be a least one position on the team that we all feel is a weak spot because it wasn't addressed.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 18, 2008 7:54 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

but just because it is a weak spot, doesn't mean it is a hole. Out of our needs (WR, TE, CB and DE in no order), we can certainly pick-up two high quality players that can make a decent impact. The other two needs that we end up addressing will atleast be guys who are good quality and have high potential (could be high impact players... i.e. Trent Edwards in the 3rd Round).

I think the Bills address all four needs but do it in a "take the best player available" scenario. When you look at the amount of talent at positions like receiver in the draft and the amount of receiver needs by different teams, you can't help but think that if we don't grab a receiver in round 1, that we can grab the best available in round 2.

This brings me to a huge point. We can land a top 4 or 3 TE (one of those good quality and high potential), in round 3.

To summarize my thoughts:

If things happen the way I predict, we grab the best CB or DE with our 11th pick (Jenkins will fall)
We grab the best available WR in round 2
A top 3 or 4 TE (pass catching TE)
What we don't grab in round 1 we take in round 4 (either CB or DE)

IMO if we don't take a WR in round 1, we have to take one in round 2.

by hilliarddavid on Mar 18, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions

Just wondering

You say Jenkins will fall....what exactly does that mean? Mike Jenkins is not worth the #11 and is more likely to be taken in the 20's. Why do you think he's a top 10 pick?

What WR would you take in Round 2?

by Kurupt on Mar 18, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Jenkins & WR

I think that Jenkins is a potential Antioine Winfield type corner. Not the biggest guy, but tough, quick and can play the run. I guess other than that I don't really have a great reason... I just think he will be an impact #2 corner out of school (in a year or two be our #1).

I think that we will end up with Manningham, Doucet and maybe Sweed or Kelly (depending on what people think of their injury history). I think Thomas, Jackson, Sweed and Kelly are first round talent but I don't think that 4 WR will be taken in the first round. I would say we would grab Hardy in the second round in a heart beat but he has a bad history (I would almost bet my life that we wouldn't take him).

by hilliarddavid on Mar 18, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I think

Jenkins is a top 20, maybe top 15 prospect. If the Bills pass on him he would likely get drafted in the 15-18 range where Detroit, Arizona, Minnesota and Houston could all use a CB. Tampa at 20 and Dallas at 22 seem like the lowest picks he could fall to on draft day.

I know Mike Mayock says there aren't any first round calibur wideouts this year, but WRs always get overdrafted. Due to the attrition rate of wide receivers most teams always have a need for them. I suspect the top 6 wideouts (Jackson, Sweed, Kelly, Doucet, Thomas, Hardy) will be gone when the Bills pick in the second round. Now that is just a guess, but I think it is a big assumption to think the Bills can grab one of those guys at 41 overall. The Bills will also be in a prime position to trade down in the second round. Trades become much more common after the first 25 or so picks and the Bills could probably add another third round pick if they feel like moving down about 15 picks.

I thought Jordy Nelson was going to run about a 4.6 at the combine and didn't like him for that reason. When he ran sub 4.5 times he shot up into the second round. He is a realistic option in the second round. Eddie Royal will go sometime in the second, but is the opposite of what we are looking for in a receiver. Andre Caldwell and Earl Bennett are guys that are tall enough at 6'0 and seem like solid possesion guys that could potentially make an early impact.

I don't really know what to do with any of that though. I think there is a 50/50 chance that one of those top 6 wideouts is available at 41. I can't decide whether the Bills should just take a WR in round 1 or try to trade up 5 or ten spots in round 2 to make sure they get a guy they like. Jordy Nelson at 41 overall would be a solid choice. There are a lot of intruiging guys like Will Franklin, Keenan Burton and Paul Hubbard who will be available in the third round and some others that will be available even later than that, but I don't trust WRs picked late to ever amount to anything.

by kaisertown on Mar 18, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

we also

have three starters at arguably three of the most important positions from last year's draft. When you're first three picks of the draft become your starting RB, MLB, and QB in their first years and the '06 draft was as good as it was, why wouldn't you be excited to see what the Bills do this year?

Trade J.P. for a pick, or a pick and J.P. for a receiver

by poz on Mar 18, 2008 10:35 AM EDT reply actions

Good points

but there's still some FA's out there and will be come June that would add to our depth.

Like your Clayton idea. That may be the best way to obtain a vet WR, whether it's him or someone else. A trade of a late round pick for said vet could be the most beneficial way to improve our WR corps at this point. Not sure a 5th is what I'd offer for Clayton though. I think Tampa is very, very close to cutting him outright. Offer a 7th or a 2009 conditional pick and see if we can get it done.

Trading down would be nice, but unless we have a partner who's offering a deal better than the player we'd take at #11, we won't be going anywhere.

by Kurupt on Mar 18, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions

RE: Clayton

I think the Bills will need to acquire a veteran receiver at some point to at least compete in training camp, at a minimum. They will probably need to add a starting-caliber veteran receiver. My reasoning behind Clayton is, if you are going to add a veteran wideout, why not get a young player with some upside? Plus, he is a big tough dude.

I like the idea of adding a receiver such as Clayton for versatility, flexibility, depth, insurance policy or backup plan, and to soften the blow in the event that a rookie receiver is not the instant-impact elite playmaker that the Bills so desperately need.

Without a veteran receiver and immediate contribution from a rookie receiver, Lee Evans and Josh Reed would again be the starting wideouts. Same problem as last year. And if Evans gets injured...

How good do you want the Bills to be?

by Fort Worth on Mar 18, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree across the board there

Plus, Clayton could use a fresh start. He could REALLY use a fresh start.

Young with plenty of upside still, and bonus...he's produced at some point in his career. We know he'd be at least capable of doing it again. He's definitely worth investigating further and probably throwing a 6th or 7th rounder at the Bucs for. I can't see them keeping him around.

Definitely agree that we need to get a veteran at some point. Can't be relying on 2 rookies and the guys we have now. I don't see how that'd be smart.

by Kurupt on Mar 18, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

GONE!!

Fifth round pick went to Jax. for Stroud.(And one of our thirds) How about we give the Bucs and Gruden their 8th QB?? Losman and a 6th for Clayton?

I love DRC and his world class speed!! I don't think that either line will receive added depth until atleast the third round. (probably later) This means no DE!!

Why do we need a safety?? Ko and Donte aren't great, but they are still very young and raw. Give them a chance. We definately don't need a DT AT ALL! We have 4 very capable, high energy guys who all bring different assets to the table and can provide us with a great rotation.

We do need a center because Fowler sucks and should have been CUT with Tripplett "I tripped over my shoelaces when I got pushed all over the place." We do need another TE but we have too much money invested in Royal. If he fails to produce again this year, I would axe him next year. He either drops the ball, gets called for holding, or fumbles the ball after the catch. I THINK HE SUCKS. Same goes for DE. We do need depth, but there is too much money invested. Look for them to sign Hall soon.

Personally, I think that we will be awesome on defense and still very slow to score points. We must obtain a veteran WR.

I am a huge Bills fan! Have been since I was 5! I miss the good old days with Marv, Bruce, Talley, Ballard, Hull, Reed, Lofton and Thurman!

by cutter3232 on Mar 19, 2008 3:29 AM EDT reply actions