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Buffalo Rumblings Authors Mock: Rounds 4, 5

Why do I love this blog? Because no matter what project we're undertaking, Buffalo Bills fans far and wide can bring each other down a peg. We're all equals here, and y'all have proven that through the first three days of this week as we've unveiled the Buffalo Rumblings Authors Mock. I applaud each and every one of you who have taken the time to share your thoughts on the Bills' roster over the past few days, and offer further applause to those of you who have taken the time to critique our mock selections intelligently. We encourage you to keep up the good work - we've had fun defending our selections (well, I've had fun reading your comments while on vacation, at least), and we're learning a lot as we plan to do a similar project much closer to draft day.

The first three rounds are in the books. Discussions on those selections have been outstanding. Here are our fourth and fifth round picks; once again, we can't wait to hear what y'all have got to say about not only these two selections, but each author's draft as a whole. Without further ado, we offer you rounds 4 and 5:

Brian Galliford's Picks

4-110. Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville.
- Barnidge isn't an elite tight end talent, and weighing in at just 243 pounds, isn't likely to be a good in-line blocker at the pro level. What makes him an intriguing prospect is his height (6'6") and speed (4.65 40). He's a reliable target over the middle, and 17 career touchdowns means he's great in the red zone as well. This guy has "poor man's Jason Witten" written all over him - he can stretch the seam effectively, but isn't naturally athletic enough to be taken higher than Round 3. A potential steal who could do to Buffalo's offense what Kevin Boss did for the Giants last year.

5-135. Ezra Butler, LB, Nevada.
- Excellent timed speed (4.55 40) for his size (6'2", 245 pounds). Butler is an outstanding special teams player who would fit in well in any scheme at the pro level. He's also a terrific blitzer and plays very physically. He's not overly stout against the run and his block-sheding technique is pretty severely lacking, but he has enough raw talent to be a worthwhile project player. His special teams abilities make him an ideal replacement for Mario Haggan and Josh Stamer, though the Bills may have to reach for him in the fourth round to ensure they snag him.

Sireric's Picks

4-110. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt.
- I'm willing to bet this the lowest that anybody else will have the Bills taking a receiver. I'm also aware that Bennett isn't the biggest or fastest receiver in the draft, but he is the only one who has caught at least 75 passes the last three years. Bennett is one of those guys who isn't flashy so he's way down on everyone's draft board, but in three years I would be interested in seeing his numbers compared to every other receiver taken ahead of him.

5-135. Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville.
- At 6'6" and 244 pounds, Barnidge is probably the most under-the-radar TE prospect in this draft. He's put up solid numbers the last 2 years (53/655 in '07 and 31/511 in '06), plus he ran a 4.63 40 at the Combine. He's got the size, speed and hands to be a solid TE at the pro level. Barnidge most likely won't have a huge impact as a rookie but could develop into a real find.

Jri111's Picks

4-110. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
- Here is a draft position that I had the hardest time to decide on. The last mock I did, I had DE Jason Jones from Eastern Michigan here. It seemed like a good fit at the time. Now, however, I go back to all the draft resources that I used then, and many of them have him rated a lot higher than they did two weeks ago (i.e. as a second or third rounder). If he's there in the forth, he's my guy, but I'm going on the assumption that he won't be. I really like Owen Schmitt and think he would be a great pick-up here. Some believe that FB here is a luxury pick; however, I don't see it that way. I think it's just the opposite. Think about it this way: who is going to get more playing time, a DE that is fourth on the depth chart? A CB that is fourth or fifth, or a receiver that is fifth? No - a FB who is starting will. Schmitt is tough and physical, and would be an excellent lead man for Lynch. He also could be an asset in the passing game as well.

5-135. Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green.
- Here is a sobering fact for you: Four Bills offensive linemen are entering the last year of their contracts. That includes starter Marvin Fowler and top reserves Kirk Chambers, Duke Preston, and Jason Whittle. The Bills are arguably set at 4 of the 5 starting positions, but can improve in the middle. I would love Mike Pollak in the 3rd round; however, TE was a bigger need. Kory Litchenstegier is the next best option. He's smart, he's tough, and he's a leader. He actually possesses a lot of the same traits as a former Bills center Kent Hull. Not a bad guy to be compared to. The Bills need to start addressing O-line depth or one injury up front could be detrimental to the entire offense.

Kurupt's Picks

4-110. Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
- I think the TE class is deep this year, but not overly impressive. By that I mean there is no sure-fire future Pro Bowler. There are a lot of niche players, whether they're known for being a strong blocker or receiving threat only. I had this pick narrowed down to a handful of tight ends: Finley, Jacob Tamme, Kellen Davis and Martin Rucker, all of whom would make sense here. I chose Finley because I think he's got the biggest receiving upside. I really expect the front office to target a TE with receiving skills first, and blocking ability as a bonus. Finley didn't run particularly well at the Combine, but he looks fluid and athletic in games. He's got nice hands and decent size. He may not be fully ready mentally to be a major impact right away, but down the line I really like what Finley could offer our offense in the passing game.

5-135. Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose State
- I know this is probably a little late for this guy, but the CB position is pretty deep this year and he's a borderline Top-20 CB in this draft. Because he didn't run well at the Combine, I think there's a great chance of him being available at this point. Lowery has nice size at 5'11", 200 lbs, and above average ball skills. His lack of straight line speed may relegate him to a zone D only. I think he'd be a nice fit for our D. If Zack Bowman was available, I'd look at taking him too.

It's a long read, we're aware; we hope it's enlightening and valuable information for y'all as well. To get everyone up to speed, here's how each author has drafted throughout the first five rounds:

Brian Galliford
1-11. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
2-42. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
3-71. Tyvon Branch, CB, Connecticut
4-110. Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
5-135. Ezra Butler, LB, Nevada

sireric
1-11. Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
2-42. Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
3-71. Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
4-110. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
5-135. Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville

jri111
1-11. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
2-42. Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia
3-71. Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
4-110. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
5-135. Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Bowling Green

Kurupt
1-11. Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
2-42. Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
3-71. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
4-110. Jermichael Finley, TE, Texas
5-135. Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose State

We're getting deep into this thing, and there's still plenty to discuss - mostly from a strategy standpoint, in terms of how each author has approached filling Buffalo's remaining needs. Again, feel free to pick favorites, trash picks (not people), and have fun with this. Let's hear it, folks.

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Lichtensteiger
I'll be the first to admit that I'm biased because I'm a Bowling Green alumnus, but Kory Lichtensteiger is going to be a pretty good NFL lineman.

IMO, he's a better player at this point than Scott Mruczkowski was when he left BG.

I don't think there's a ton of upside...he's not going to be a hall of famer or anything, but between what I know about him as a person and what I've seen from him on the field, this is a kid who's going to be a solid player.

by thejamootz on Mar 20, 2008 7:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Winner by default
is jri111.  He is the only one to address the need at center, even if it is two rounds to late.  To not draft a center by round 5 is a travesty.  The rest of you should hang your heads in shame and pray to the football Gods (sireric) for forgiveness!!!

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 9:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll say it right now
The Bills won't draft a center until the late rounds of the draft - if at all. We may not like Fowler, but the coaching staff does, and we've already got a backup in Whittle. Preston can play there too, in a pinch. I'm agreeing with you all that we could be upgraded there, but we have to take care of other starting/depth options this year before we can worry about that position. We're stuck with Fowler, folks - and that's not the worst thing in the world.
Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Mar 20, 2008 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
And taking a center any earlier than that is just silly.  Especially considering there's not a lot of talented centers to draft this year and we despite Fowler's run blockind deficiencies he's pretty good at get the right blocks called on passing downs. He's pretty good at pass blocking himself.  He has quick feet but very little drive.

by jj24 on Mar 20, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ha! that was a gramatical nightmare!
Anyway, I slept poorly last night what I wanted to say was: Fowler at run - bad.  Fowler at pass - pretty good.

by jj24 on Mar 20, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but
The coaching staff seems to like Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney just fine, but that didn't stop 3 of you from taking DEs in the first two rounds of the draft.  In my book, Fowler is worse than the our defensive end situation and he only has ONE year left on his contract whereas our top three ends have all been signed to multiyear contracts in the last two years.
Nick (Bensalem, PA)

by Nick BensalemPA on Mar 20, 2008 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So
We should overdraft a Center because it's a need? Good interior linemen can be found later in the draft, while good pass rusher are usually found in the first 2-3 rounds.
~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Overdrafts are for checking accounts
"We're stuck with Fowler, folks - and that's not the worst thing in the world."  I would just substitute Schobel/Kelsay/Denney for Fowler and then, agree with this comment from Brian above...As far as where I would take a Center, I'd pick one in rounds 3-5, hopefully grabbing one of the top 3 on Buffalo's board...I personally like Pollock.  
Nick (Bensalem, PA)

by Nick BensalemPA on Mar 20, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's fine if you like Pollack
I personally like someone else, who should be around later in the draft, and will be my pick tomorrow.

I don't disagree that we need a new Center, I've been saying the same thing for a long time.  Fowler just stinks, gets pushed around and causes the whole line to have their struggles. However, I just don't like taking a Center earlier on with the type's of players that would be available.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The coaching staff
likes you right up to the point where they trade you, cut you, or give your job to someone else.  And even then, they still say how much they like you.  See - McGahee, TKO, Fletcher, Nail (X3), Wire, A-train, Preston, and Loseman just to name a few.  Don't get me wrong; I think these were all good moves.  But, the coaches have a track record of praising players that quickly lose their starting jobs.

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Likely
I don't plan on praying to anybody, I KNEEL BEFORE NO ONE!!! (unless she's nude)

I do have the Bills taking a center (in the 6th.) I don't see the Bills taking any center in this draft with the idea of replacing Fowler in '08, maybe '09.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 20, 2008 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sireric, HiIlary Clinton is calling
She has some kneepads and wants to "tax" the hell out of you.  You really should be more specific!!!

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

HiIlary Clinton
Hillary Clinton is a beautiful woman, whom I would gladly kneel before.

Alright maybe not, I was trying to be funny and I grossed myself out. You're right I should be more specific.

She must be nude, smoking hot, and under the age of 50 (hey I like MILFS).

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 20, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL
I may have wet myself!!!

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Center
What's the difference between a 5th and 6th round Center, especially when there aren't any top C prospects this year?
~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why
don't you think there are any top prospects?  How many of the current C in the league were taken in the 1st round?  Nick Mangold was drafted in the 1st round last year and Matt Birk was drafted in the 6th round in 1998, so yes, Probowl players can be found later in the draft.  But, your odds should be better picking from the best at the position.  This year, the best centers are projected to be taken in the 3rd round.  I guess the difference is...Do you want someone who will push Fowler for the starting job this year (for me, a big yes), or do you want a 2 year project with a greater chance of being cut.

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see
any centers in this draft to push Fowler. I see guys who would be younger versions of him.  I'm looking for a center with some size who can hold up against the bigger DT's in the league. There aren't many of those guys this year...
~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Size is not the problem
Matt Birk is listed at 6'4" and 308 lbs.  Mangold at 6'4" 300 lbs,.  Melvin Fowler is 6'3" 310 lbs.  Mike Pollak is 6'4" 301 lbs and is projected by many to be a late second to early 3rd round pick. Their sizes compare, wouldn't you say?  I would guess that Pollak can put on 10 lbs of muscle in the off season workouts.   Would you take Fowler over Birk or Mangold?  Fowler has proven he is not up to the job.  Give me another center currently playing in the NFL that is worse.

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of you has it right
I love jri111's draft - but the other 3 are crap... :-)

I would still rather have Malcolm Kelly than Sweed, and I have a sneaky suspicion a CB even better than Flowers may fall to us in the 2nd round - but I love the way that jri has addressed the draft

by DC Fan on Mar 20, 2008 9:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A-gree
I really like jri111's draft.  That is pretty close to what I would be doing.  I really like Kellar and I love Schmitt. I don't think taking a FB is a luxury at all, especially considering a new found commitment to the position. Schmitt would make for a powerful lead blocker and would be another weapon in the passing game.

I am not as down on Fowler as many other's are, but I like getting O-line depth, so I have no problem with getting another center.

by RabidBuffalo on Mar 20, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Analyzing the 5 rounds
Brian: I like the way you've spread the picks across the "need list" while taking solid players.
Sireric: I would change the 3rd round pick out for run oriented DT to compliment Harvey.  Maybe I would consider a different DB in round 2 but I could come around on Smith. I like the Bennett pick but that might be too late for him.
jri111: I'm not crazy about the 5th pick.  I agree we need to address the depth on OL but I don't like a C at 5. We have backup C's for this year. Maybe a tackle would be better. I don't like Chambers that much as our depth. Veteran lineman can be had in free agency next year, too. I would slide a corner in here maybe, to round out the balance. Like with Sireric I wouldn't mind seeing a big DT t oline up with Harvey for a while.  You could move Finley to the 5th and go for the best receiver in the 4th.
Kurupt:  Considering you didn't know we were taking James it's hard to criticize you taking 2 corners.  That's all I would change
With the players taken I see a good mix between Sireric's and Kurupts' with one alteration. It looks like this:
  1. Harvey
  2. Cason
  3. Run stopping DT(bryant,harrison,rubin)
  4. Bennett/Nelson (or Marcus Smith)
  5. Finley/Barnidge
This solidifies the defense while attempting to fortify the offense.
With Brian and John's the mix could look like this while conversely addressing the offense and defense:
  1.  Sweed
  2.  TE(Davis,Bennett,Keller)
  3.  Tyvon Branch/ Jason Jones if available
  4.  Owen Schmitt
  5.  WR(Marcus Smith) or corner if we have Jones
Good job so far guys!

by jj24 on Mar 20, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bennett
I think you're right 4th is probably too late for him.

How about Bennett in the 3rd and frank Okam in the 4th?

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 20, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That sounds great to me.
Now we got something goin' here.  

by jj24 on Mar 20, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for making us all happy
Finley won't be a 5th. If anything, he'll be moving up after running a better 40 this week.

I think a DT will be in my next mock for sure.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Leading the pack is...
Kurupt.
I like his draft the best so far out of the four posted on the main page.  Probably the only thing I would change is drafting a WR in Round 2 instead of a CB, hoping to get one of the top guys left.
It might not be a bad idea to get 2 WR's in the top 4 picks to fill the #2 slot and give Josh Reed a run for his money in training camp.
While the need to develop a C prospect is a good idea, I think the Bills can land a decent one with a later pick (say Round 6).
Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Mar 20, 2008 10:47 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good thought
The 2 CB picks were made before the James signing, so I might be more inclined to take WR's instead of 2 CB's.  I think I would still stick with Cason, but go WR in round 5 instead.
~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cason the 2nd round
Personally, I would have no problem with picking Cason in the 2nd.  And I agree with the possibility of taking a WR in the 5th instead.

There's lots of good possibilities out there for the Bills if they play their cards right.

Any ideas on who Buffalo could pick up as a decent FB college free agent?

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Mar 20, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Scout
Scout.com (http://profootballexperts.scout.com/a.z?s=211&p=9&c=12&nid=83&lnid=124&rc=4& pid=13&yr=2008) lists Peyton Hillis, Jerome Felton, Jacob Hester and Owen Schmitt (in that order) as the top FBs available.  After that, I think its a crap-shoot as to who would be the next drafted/top unsigned.  

I know nothing about what makes a great college FB translate into a good pro FB.  However, being a Buckeye fan, I will say that Trevor Robinson was a solid blocker, but definitely one-dimensional.  He platooned with another guy who could translate: Tyler Whaley.  

by DCRumbler on Mar 20, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Draft Tek Mock
Saw Draft Tek's latest 7-round projection.  Some interesting choices for the Bills.

Round

  1.  CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State, 6-1, 185, 4.33
  2.  TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M, 6-6, 259, 4.68
  3.  WR Jordy Nelson, Kansas State, 6-3, 217, 4.51
  4.  WR Paul Hubbard, Wisconsin, ?
  5.  DE Brian Johnston, Gardner-Webb, ?
  6.  FB Peyton Hillis, Arkansas, 6-1, 240, 4.58
7a. C  Fernando Velasco, Georgia, 6-4, 328, ?
7b. CB Darnell Terrell, Missouri, 6-3, 205, ?

No QB's, I noticed...

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Mar 20, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My favorite picks
My favorite picks from the mock drafts are:

Jason Jones DE, 2nd Round- Brian

Earl Bennett WR, 4th Round- sireric

Owen Schmitt FB, 4th Round - jri (any chance he falls to the 5th round? We need a FB terribly)

Antoine Cason CB, 2nd Round- Kurupt (I know him and Jones are both in the 2nd, but I would love it if we could weasel our way into getting both, trade perhaps? Jones falling to the 3rd maybe?)

Trade J.P. for a pick, or a pick and J.P. for a receiver

by poz on Mar 20, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I like
The Cason, Finley, Nelson, Butler, and Bennett picks.  I'd say it be tough for me to argue with those as the 2-5 picks, although I'd really like a DT (Red Bryant, Okam, Laws) in one of those spots.  

by krytime on Mar 20, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts on Scmitt?
I, for one, am not high on him. It's not because he won't be a good player, but I don't like the idea of taking a FB so high. We don't know how much Schonert will be using the FB...is it on all run downs, in short yardage situations, here and there?  Who knows at this point.

I'm also weary of Schmitt because of the way he plays. He plays so dang hard that I'm just worried his career won't last too long at this level. I think we can find a FB in the 6th/7th round that could be productive. We could still go after Corey McIntyre as well.  

Overall, I just feel we can spend a 4th round pick much better than on a FB.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 11:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A 4th round pick
Is way too high for a FB, in my opinion.

by krytime on Mar 20, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade down
Lot of people have said it, but I really wasn't giving it much thought before the beginning of the free agency period and the "author's mocks."  I think they (the authors) have done just fine (save the Johnson pick sireric - he could be great, but I personally don't see the value with selecting a QB in the 3rd), but it has occurred to me there are going to be a "few" holes that need to be patched prior to the season, and extra picks will get it done (not really, but hope springs eternal in draft season).

Early speculation has it that Dallas might want to trade up, especially if McFadden somehow slips down to us.  I've heard Philly might want to jump up too, but I will focus on Dallas since they may be both the most hungry and willing considering that they have two 1st round picks.  

Suppose we trade down with Dallas and obtain the No. 22 pick overall.  What else should we get?  The Trade Value Chart (I know its outdated, but what do you want from me?) says we have 1250 points with the 11th.  Dallas' 22nd is valued at 780.  That leaves 470 points to play with.  I don't know if Dallas would do it, but they could also give us their 2nd rounder (pick 61 - 292 points) and 3rd rounder (pick  94 - 132 points).  Dallas actually gets the "deal" here, since they are still up 46 points by the end of this trade.  

But if the trade happened, and we received that 4th rounder in the comp distribution (thanks, Gandy!), look what happends.  That would give us 1 first, 2 Seconds, 2 Thirds, 2 Fourths, 1 Fifth, 1 Sixth, and 2 Sevenths.  Eleven picks.  How many picks are we allowed?  I don't know the limit.

Regardless, we'd have 5 of the first 100 picks.  Think of the flexibility!  Ok, I know the what the likelihood of Dallas making a deal like that with us is, but this would surely allow all BuffaloRumblers to have their mock needs satisfied.  I also have a plan for Iraq and how to stop the housing crisis if ya'll are interested.

by DCRumbler on Mar 20, 2008 11:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Trade w/Dallas
I'm glad you didn't say we should trade for both their 1st round picks, because that's just absurd. If they are willing to part with both, they'll be able to move into the top 10, no problem.

I firmly believe there will be a bunch of teams willing to trade up to #11.  If we can get an extra 2nd, 3rd, or even both as you mention, I would be beyond thrilled.  

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I've heard that too
Along with Dallas, I've heard Philly, Houston, and Detroit among others (mostly from prognosticators that probably have as much front office insight as I do).  I wrote about Dallas because I think, as it stands right now, they are our most viable partner But I bet OBD could fleece Detroit.

Anyway, I've heard people mention that we should trade for both of Dallas' firsts, too.  That is just ridiculous.  I suppose McFadden were to fall to us, Jerry Jones might be so hopped up on him he might do it.  But that's just too much. It ain't happening.     Wake up people!

by DCRumbler on Mar 20, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dallas
I've done some thinking on this current trade chart stuff.  As much as the chart needs to adjusted, it's mostly with regard to the value of the top ten.  After that, it's still pretty accurate.

I've done some thinking about getting Dallas' two first round picks.  It'll work if we also swap our 2nd and 3rd with them.

I've also looked at swapping with Atlanta (3 2nd round picks), Minnesota, Philly, TB, SD, and Detroit.  I think there is some chance mathematically (ie-trade chart v needs) that something could get done.

I also have a scenario where they could trade completely out of the first round, and end up with 2 2nds, and 3 3rds, and maybe a little more.  Would anyone argue with that kind of move?

by krytime on Mar 20, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trading out of the 1st
Don't like that idea at all.  It would be fine if our pick was in the 20's, but to go from #11 to out of the 1st is sort of ridiculous.

The only way I'd consider it is if we traded down TWICE, which won't happen.  If we could trade down 10-12 spots and get another 2nd, and then turn around and trade that pick in the early 20's for an early 2nd and a 2009 1st rounder (ala Dallas' trade w/Cleveland for Quinn) and probably a 4th or so, I could deal just fine. At that point we'd have a high 2nd, our mid 2nd, a later 2nd, our 3rd and probably two 4th's, along with two 1st rounder in 2009. That could work.  The only problem is we would have less of a chance at getting an impact player. I suppose under that scenario we could end up with James Hardy, Fred Davis and Jason Jones with those 2nd rounders....

IF we do make a trade, I'd have to imagine it's to move down 7-10 spots and acquire another 2nd.  That would be an excellent move and set us up to get 3 very good players in the first 2 rounds...

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My whole reason
Is that you could fill a lot of holes with 5 picks in the first three rounds, before the compensatory picks kick in and the rest of your picks start to devalue round by round.

Would I take 4 picks in three rounds while keeping a first?  Hell yeah.  But at the point where a late first rounder blurs into an early 2nd rounder, most of these guys are relatively "equal."

I will and always will defend the argument that the way to build a team is to stay out of the top ten, and accumulate picks in rounds 2-4.

by krytime on Mar 20, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re:
I will and always will defend the argument that the way to build a team is to stay out of the top ten, and accumulate picks in rounds 2-4.

Agreed there. Top 100 picks are a strong way to build quality depth and talent on your team.  I hope we are able to acquire some more picks in that area this year, that's for sure.

What is your scenario to get us two 2nd's and three 3rd's  by the way?  After thinking about it a little more, I really don't see how we can move from #11 out of the 1st completely without making multiple trades. I just don't think there is any chance that that would happen. Unless ATL offers their #34, #37 and either a 4th or a swap of their other 2nd for our 3rd, we'd have to make multiple trades.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

rashad mendenhall
Maybe the best leverage the Bills have.  Even with McFadden gone, there could be a few teams itching to get up to snag the next best RB; after us, the list of potential RB suiters goes 5 deep up to the Vikings, IMO.  

In my Dallas-trade scenario, I said that, points-wise, Dallas could give us the 22 and their 2nd and 3rd and actually come out on top.  But, I don't think it will happen.  However, a frenzy could start just behind us.  If it does, we could wind up sitting real pretty.

by DCRumbler on Mar 20, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Scenarios
Kurupt - I have a few different ones.  They're all in the infancy stage of the math.  Give me a day or two.  But, I'm sure, if you even glance at the trade chart, and put teams names in the corresponding spots, it becomes a bit easier to guestimate.

Mendenhall - he might very well be the guy someone trades for.  I for one, don't like the system he comes from, but he is freakishly built.  Also, I heard Brohm is moving up again.  If he moves up into the top ten, someone nice is obviously falling out.

by krytime on Mar 20, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget JP
might come into play.  The Bills could trade their round 3 pick with a team like the Vikes, KC, or Falcons plus JP for their 2nd round pick.

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Backup QB
Who would be our backup then? Or who would be worth signing?
~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Year to Year
What do you guys (DC, Kurupt etc) think about the valuation that draft pics get year to year, specifically the rule of thumb which seems to be a pick this year is worth 1 round less then a pick next year (e.g. a second in 07 is worth a first in 08).

I can understand why coaches think this, they need to win sooner then later to keep their jobs. But as a fan, who will definitely be around next year, I always thought that was a bit high.

I would happily stockpile high picks in 09 as part of a trade this year.

Especially if, as it seems, we will hit our peak in 2009 and 2010.

by Thronsen on Mar 20, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
When they say that a 2nd round pick this year is equivalent to a 1st in 2009 just doesn't make much sense to me.  I agree that a 1st next year should be less valuable that a 1st this year, but it shouldn't be by much.  But with that, I would never trade a 1st round pick this year for a 1st next year unless that pick is at the end of this year's 1st (like the Pats did last year).  The chance is there that the pick the following year would be much higher (for the lucky Pats, it is).

If I were a team like Atlanta, who has 3 2nd round picks this year, I would definitely offer one of those for a 1st rounder in 2009 (and a 4th or so this year).  If you're able to parlay a pick like that into a higher pick the following year, you've definitely go to consider it.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 21, 2008 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Off Subject
Is it just me or is that stupid cat throwing punches really freaking annoying? Any chance we can get the chick with the great cleavage back?
Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 20, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes !!!!!!!!
I thought I was the only one.  For some reason that I don't understand, if find myself wishing a pit bull would come along and ....... out of that cat!  I like cats.  I have two cats and a dog, but I think I am going to have to put a post over the screen.

by Joe P. on Mar 20, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hahaha
I think its amazing, I've been laughing out loud at work all day at how annoying it is. It's amazing that its just there, every second, swinging away. I'm crying I'm laughing so hard
Trade J.P. for a pick, or a pick and J.P. for a receiver

by poz on Mar 20, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Im in ur Billz blawg
punchin and givin u epilepsies!!!111!!11!  

by DCRumbler on Mar 20, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, what cat?
It's gotta get tired at some point
~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah!
for Ad blockers at work!

by RabidBuffalo on Mar 20, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jri,
Love your draft.  Curious to find out what you feel about the DE situation though.

by Kumario! on Mar 20, 2008 3:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is tough to workout
All 4 authors have done some nice work here looking at the Needs/Wants of the Bills and all have come in with some interesting solutions. I guess at this point, I would take what I like best from them all and make my own list look like this:

1-11. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State
2-42. Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
3-71. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
4-110. Gary Barnidge, TE, Louisville
5-135. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia

1- I feel that CB is an area where we need to be prepared to push Youbuty and Greer to either really step up this season or go back to Nickel and Dime packages. Since we run Cover 2 we can take the risk of drafting a kid and giving him a shot on the field from day 1 and I think DRC might give us the speed and ball skills we need to keep the other teams in the AFC East from passing a whole lot on us.

2- Jason Jones I think will be a great 1st year situational rusher and could become the guy who moves Kelsay back in the depth chart in 2009. Kid likes to learn and loves the gym and hits a lot of people in the backfield even if his sack numbers are a little low.

3- Jordy Nelson, and I've explained before my unreasoning man crush on him many times. I think the kid is just flat out a football player whose measurables might not be fantastic, but always shows up and succeeds, which is a huge deal for me.

4- Gary Barnidge, good pass catcher in an offense that relied on the TEs to be open and ready to take a pass coming in hot. He had a lot of touch downs because he kept getting open when they needed him too. Solid hands, and will need to be coached up for blocking and gain some size, but the same thing happened with Gates and Witten. Both are now serviceable blockers, and both are guys you don't want to let get open. I think Barnidge could become a poor man's version of both, which ain't to shabby.

5- I took Owen Schmitt here because we do need a real FB if we do not get McIntyre from the Falcons. While Scmitt may be hurt eventually, if the dude is available in the 5th, I don't think we can pass on a talent like him that can pave the way for Lynch for the next 5-6 years. Also, he is a actually a decent receiver out of the backfield which will help take some of the stress off of the TE's needing to be open each and every time that go downfield. Lastly, while I would have liked a C here, its too early in this draft for that. I think we take one in the 6th.

So how done was Pat Williams when we let him go Tommie boy??? Stick a fork in him level right?

by WABillsfan on Mar 20, 2008 5:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Your mock makes sense
though the Offensive White Wash would be a bit funny.

I still can't envision us taking a CB in round 1, and I've said what I had to say about DRC. Right now, I don't like that pick, but that could change.

You guys are really starting to force me to like Jones (though not as much as Harvey). He sounds like he'll be a very nice DE in the league, but I'd be worried he doesn't have the pass rushing ability that this D really needs. Any thoughts on that?

Right there with ya on Jordy, of course.

I'm not that high on Barnidge. He's basically a slower, less athletic WR out there. I don't think he'll ever be an explosive player, but would be a reliable target. The team does needs that, so I wouldn't be TOO upset with him. I think the 4th may be a littler early for him though. How come everybody likes him over Jacob Tamme?  

And what happened to Martin Rucker? Back in January Brian and that guy from the Mocking the Draft blog was wrongly pimping him as a potential #11 pick.  Now he registers nowhere on any of our radars. I see that he hasn't done any workouts in the past few months because of a hamstring issue. Maybe he'll continue sliding down boards and end up in the 5th round range. If so, that'd be quite the value for a TE selection.

I would love to add McIntyre soon, but I think that ship has sailed. It's been a few weeks now with nothing, so I'm not sure an offer will be made.  I agree that we need a FB that will help strengthen our run game, but anything before the 6th or 7th round or as an UDFA just seems a little much to me.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some good thoughts there
The offensive white wash would be pretty hysterical to see trot onto the field I must admit. I also did not include any work in of our comp picks since the NFL has not released those officially yet, once they do though....

As for your take on my draft here are my replies:

CB in Round 1- I choose this spot for CB because I still believe we need better than Will James to make us a solid pass defending team. I chose this spot and DRC since I believe McKelvin and Talib will both be gone at that point. While I like Flowers, I think Jones is a better value in the 2nd as he would give us the same push anyone we could take in the 1st with the 11th would as far as depth and situational rushing. I have my doubts about DRC but I have them for ALL CB prospects in this draft. None of them strike me as a complete player right now. Currently we have guys who can tackle on the outside, but we lack ball skills there to make a play, and out of the remaining guys, I think DRC has those to make an immediate inmpact, I don't think he'll be like his cousin this season, but if he comes close, we're better off.

DE in 2- See above for my reasoning there, but in short, I think Kelsay and Schobel will be fine this season with Big M and SJ provinding some stoutness and pass rush. Since the DEs should play slightly better I think a guy like Jones who is a solid run stopper and who gets into the backfield can be coached up into a better pass rusher (I think ALL of the Bills DE's should be here every off season: Defensive Line Inc story link here). Plus he would be cheaper than Harvey, would move Denney back into the 4th spot, and that works for me.

WR in 3rd- And the Jordy love fest continues

TE in the 4th- Barnidge is one of the few guys I got to watch consistently this year, and I have no idea what Jacob Tamme can do, so thats why I went with him there. If you can get me something on Jacob, I would be happy to look into him and see what he is all about.

Rucker- I think the issue is the length of his injury downtime. Teams are really wary on people with hamstring injuries to begin with since they tend to linger a long time, and this dude hasn't done much at all in what, 3-4 months now? Not a good sign. Now, if the dude is there in say the 5th or 6th round and our trainers think they can get something for him? Then fine, take a chance, especially if we have extra picks due to a trade.

FB in the 5th- I choose Schmitt here since I don't like any of the C prospects this year enough to put one here. For me FB, C, G, and DT are the four spots we need to look into filling depth spots for our team in the last 3 rounds. I chose to take care of FB here as Schmitt has been discussed in some quarters as going as high as the 4th, and if some teams are seriously looking to get this guy, we may need to gamble in the 5th. If we sign McIntyre, then this pick goes C and then G and DT in the next two rounds for me.

So how done was Pat Williams when we let him go Tommie boy??? Stick a fork in him level right?

by WABillsfan on Mar 20, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice response
That'd be nice if Schobel and Co. were working out with Chuck Smith. We've got to do something to develop a better pass rush.

Tamme is a guy VERY similar to Barnidge, but I think he's a little more athletic.  I don't know a whole lot about him though. He was one of Andre Woodson's main targets and always looked like a nice receiving TE.  I'm just wondering why everyone seems to like Barnidge more than him, even though Tamme seems to be ranked a bit higher.

If we wait until the 4th-6th rounds to address TE, one of those guys or Rucker would be solid selections.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 20, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My Choice
I like  the K -mans draft the best so far ,in particular picks 2-5. I still have some reservations about Harvey. I know that he put on some weight for the scouts at the combine and predictably his speed suffered. My question is can he maintain the weight ?  How much will it effect his playing speed and will he be a 3 down DE?  If any answers to this are in the negative then he's not the 11th pick in the draft.        ( Remember Flowers)  

by Rocco58 on Mar 20, 2008 6:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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