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The Drive Killers

I compiled the following data in 14 of the 16 games (recorder took a dump in the Broncos and Jags games). My intent was to see who was killing drives for the Bills. Was a particular player or position stopping Buffalo from scoring a TD 89% of drives? Well, here are the results. Crack open a beer and grab some munchies because I tend to be long winded.

There were some odds and ends I tracked through the season (not counting the Denver or Jags games) and I also kept an eye on who was killing drives.

It should surprise no one that Edwards killed more drives than anyone else. After all, he touched the ball more than anyone else. He stopped 31 of 154 (20.1%) drives through bad passes, INTs, intentional grounding penalties, etc. To be completely fair, his percentage of killed drives is actually higher because he wasn't in for all 154 drives. Taking out the 30 total drives in the Bengals, Miami and Pats raises his percentage to (25%). Throw in the first drive in the first Pats game and the last 4 against the Jets and his percentage is actually 26.1%. Losman looks good at first blush. He killed 11 drives which would count for 7.1%....except that he was only in for about 35 drives. That puts his killed percentage at 31.4% of the drives he actually played. Basically, Edwards killed 1 drive in 4 and Losman killed almost 1 drive in 3. Together they killed 42 of 154 (27.3%) of Buffalo's drives. Interestingly, Losman was marginally more accurate than Edwards (63% to 56%) but Losman killed a greater percentage of drives by being inaccurate or making bad decisions when it really mattered. The bottom line is that Buffalo needs better play from the QB position.

Bills receivers and tight ends added to the killed drives. Royal killed 5.5 drives (3.6%) with drops or poor blocking. Gaines killed 3 drives (2.0%) and Schouman, in limited action, killed 0.5 drive (0.3%). Reed killed 6.5 drives (4.2%), almost exclusively due to drops. He may have done better with hanging onto the ball this year but the drops he had were drive killers. Evans killed 5 drives (3.3%), one of which was a rather grievous holding penalty on a long Lynch run. Parrish killed 3.5 drives (2.3%). All told, the tight ends and receivers killed 23 drives (14.9%). The QBs, while needing to play better, could really use some better play from their receiving options.

For anyone whining about Lynch being the problem, he killed 2 drives (1.3%). That's amazing to me as he touched the ball 298 times. He had more touches than anyone else on the team and killed only 2 drives. The man is a stud! Wright killed 1 drive (0.7%) on 32 touches. Jackson killed 2.5 drives (1.6%) on 80 touches, at least one of which was actually a missed blitz pick up. Everyone's favorite whipping boy, the A-Train, killed 3 drives (2.0%) on 51 touches. Combined, the RBs killed 8.5 drives (5.5%). I don't see that as a negative result given that they had 3 ways to kill drives--running, receiving, blocking. Sure, RB play can improve but it isn't what is holding the offense back.

When I started out doing the offensive line breakdowns this year I was certain that the line would kill off more drives than anyone else. Imagine my surprise. Peters killed 6 drives (3.9%), Dock killed 4 (2.6%), Fowler killed 10 (6.5%), Butler killed 2 (1.3%), Walker killed 5 (3.3%), Preston killed 0.5 (0.3%) and Chambers killed 2 (1.3%). Preston and Chambers saw limited action so the percentages of the drives they killed are quite a bit higher than it shows when laid against the backdrop of the 154 drives I looked at. Butler again shined, killing off the smallest percentage of drives by the starting linemen. Fowler, on the other hand, killed off more drives than the entire group of RBs. As a whole, the offensive line killed 29.5 drives (19.2%).

Buffalo had 14 drives (9.1%) finish at the end of the half or the end of the game. When the Bills had the ball with some time, some timeouts, were behind and simply ran out the clock I counted it as a drive killed by coaching. Coaching was blamed for killing drives when they ran out the clock when any normal person would have mounted a drive or when they made a horrible call (3rd and goal from the 10....let's run!). Coaching killed 12 drives (7.8). 7 drives (4.6%) were killed by craptacular calls--or non calls--by the refs. I was actually surprised that came out so low. What happened the other 11% of the time? Buffalo scored a TD. 17 out of 154 (11%) drives finished in the end zone. That's just not going to get the job done.

As promised, here are the odds and ends. The QBs dropped back 433 times (30.9 per game) but only got the ball off 384 (27.4 per game) times. What happened the other 49 times? Well, they were sacked 23 (1.6 per game) times and scrambled 16 (1.1 per game) times. The remaining 10 were penalties which cancelled out the plays--on the offense or defense. Putting the penalties aside, the QBs couldn't get the ball off 9% of the time. Sometimes there was good coverage, sometimes the QB had a decision making disorder and other times protection simply broke down. Buffalo ran 384 (27.4 per game) times and had 68 penalties (4.9 per game) in those 14 games. That's about the balance (30.9 passes, 27.4 runs per game) I'd expect from a conservative coach like Jauron. In watching the line closely, by the way, I rarely saw penalties that could have been called and weren't. The line has been well coached in terms of avoiding penalties. The Bills averaged 25.7 yards per drive (season lowlight was against the Giants when Buffalo managed just 15 yards per drive). Tack on Moorman's 40ish yard net average and you can see why the Bills defense gave up a lot of yards (363 per game) and not a lot of points (22.1 per game). The offense did just enough to help out the defense, just not enough to help itself. I was somewhat surprised to find that the Bills were blitzed only 42.5% of the time. With a rookie or a rattled young vet behind center I would have thought opposing defensive coordinators would have thrown more than 4 guys into the pass rush more often. The 8-in-the-box stat is simply galling at 50% of run plays. Teams definitely loaded up to stop Lynch because they just weren't afraid of being beaten by the pass. Given the 7-9 record you can't say they were wrong. Edwards stared down his receivers 97 of his 289 drop backs (Remember, I count sacks, scrambles and penalties in the total drop back numbers.) which comes out to 33.6%. That's much lower than I thought it would be and, looking week by week, it's clear that he got better about it as he gained experience.  

Poll
Who do you think was most responsible for Buffalo scoring TDs only 11% of drives?
Offensive Line
2 votes
Quarterbacks
10 votes
Running Backs
0 votes
Tight Ends
1 votes
Receivers
7 votes
Coaches
22 votes
Referees
1 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings.

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wow
that was a pretty cool read.  

by kaisertown on Mar 29, 2008 9:47 PM EDT   0 recs

Oh man
I need paragraph breaks here. I can't read this! Ahhh

If you can, click Edit and put a < p> without the space wherever you want a new paragraph. I might get a headache if I look at it for too long!

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 29, 2008 10:07 PM EDT   0 recs

Problem solved
Thanks for the tip. I had tried the double returns in the 'tips for diaries' section but it didn't show on the final posting. Your suggestion worked like a charm.

by Ron From NM on Mar 29, 2008 10:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Interesting, though it does speak poorly of many
That was a great breakdown you did there. The only issue I can find is that everyone, regardless of job needs to do a better job. There are two ways we have to go to do this:

Quick Fixes-
1- Get more aggressive play calling from the coaching staff, and I think it will get (marginally) better now that Dumbchild is gone, so lets say on 6 a season now lost to bad play calling by the coaches.

2- Make Reed the 4th WR after Evans, 2008 draft WR, and Parrish, that reduces our killed drives by 3 a season right there.

3- Work on Trent's game management, if we can get him down into the 15-20 drives killed area a season, we will be in good shape. Also, work on play recognition and looking for the open man and outlet receiver(s). As noted above, he stared down guys only 33.6% of the time which is pretty darn good for a Rookie player. I bet Losman's was about 50% or higher.

Just doing those things above, we see that the Bills now have 20 more drives going to the end zone (taking 20 as the number of Trent's drive kills, so 11 more drives would have gone home). 20 more (potential) touchdowns and/or FGs, just by changing 3 things, wow.

Long Term Fixes-
1- Getter a better #2 WR and a pass catching TE in the draft. 10 drives killed by bad hands TEs, get a good pass catcher there, and that could be down to 5 a season. If the rookie WR can stay under 5 drive kills a season, after booting Reed to the 4th spot, we could see some real gains.

2- Get Fowler out of here, ASAP. Dock and Peters having the numbers they did, doesn't upset me since we rarely lined up a TE to their side, so their numbers should be correspondingly higher. Fowler costing us 10 a season is just sickening. Replace him with a late round kid from this season next year and that number would probably fall by more than half. Guys on other teams spend a lot of time in our backfield along with Fowler.

3- Get and stay aggressive with the ball, play calling requires some real cajones, and lets hope Turk's got a mammoth pair. Otherwise, we better keep our eyes open for better coaches.

Will these vastly improve the Bills down the road? Yes, will they all happen, maybe, but hey, at least we all know whats been going wrong.

So how done was Pat Williams when we let him go Tommie boy??? Stick a fork in him level right?

by WABillsfan on Mar 30, 2008 3:23 AM EDT   0 recs

Improvement needed across the board
That's likely true of most other teams as well, but in Buffalo's case it is particularly true.

With that said, I think you're engaging in wishful thinking regarding the aggressive play calling. Jauron is a play-not-to-lose kind of coach. He picked Edwards over Losman in large part because Edwards isn't a risk taker. Both Edwards and Jauron look to manage risk and weigh it against reward. They do need to go deep more often than they did, particularly on running downs. Lynch was facing 8+ in the box a full 50% of running plays. The only way to back those guys out is to make the defense pay for stacking the box.

I'm hoping that Buffalo gets Sweed (or one of the other top WRs in the draft) in the first round (can even trade back 4-5 spots and get him) and another big WR in the 5th or 6th. Then the WR set up could be Evans-draftee-Parrish-draftee-Reed.

Edwards started out the season staring down his receivers better than 50% of the time. His worst game in that regard was the 1st Jets game where he stared down his receivers 21 of 28 (75%) drop backs. By way of comparison, he stared down his receivers 6 of 33 (18%) drop backs against the Eagles. Losman, by the way, had largely resolved his stare down issues. He was around 18% for the Bengals, Dolphins and 2nd Patriots game. I should note that QBs almost have to stare down receivers on some plays. The quick slant, for example, doesn't give the QB time to turn his head to look off defenders.

Edwards made good strides in terms of staring down his guys. While he may need work on reading defenses he struck me as actually being a bit too eager to go to his checkdowns. This allowed defenses to get away with stacking the box because it was a good bet that Buffalo was going to either run or throw a short pass. Maybe Edwards will stick with his longer routes more in his second season.

Royal killed drives more by getting called for holding or missing a block than for dropped passes. A dropped pass on 1st or 2nd down isn't likely to be a drive killer as the offense has more opportunities to get the 1st down. A holding call on, say, second down can easily be a drive killer. Instead of a first down or third and short the offense is dropped into a 2nd and 20 hole. Missing a block on 3rd down (run or pass) kills both the play and the drive.

All told, there's plenty of blame to go around. Scoring TDs on 11% of possessions is just appalling. Everyone needs to up their game for Buffalo to have a realistic shot at the playoffs.

by Ron From NM on Mar 30, 2008 10:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Edwards checking down...
That was blatently obvious the entire season.  Hopefully he builds his confidence up and is not so quick to dismiss the downfield options.  

Then again, as you mentioned, Dick pick him over JP percisely because Trent likes the check down/high percentage passes.  

Although I disagree with it, the Bills need to add players that will maximize this type a philosphy.  Although I would rather have Sweed or Kelly, perhaps Thomas, with his YAC ability, is the best way to do that.  Also, a pass catching TE will be Trent's best friend in '08.  They need to get a guy like Davis or Bennett.

John I.

by jri111 on Mar 30, 2008 1:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

great read Ron....
great work!! Gotta love the numbers crunching!
John I.

by jri111 on Mar 30, 2008 1:31 PM EDT   0 recs

great post
how long did it take you to compile all that?
It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Mar 30, 2008 6:25 PM EDT   0 recs

Time
Hi Poz,

It generally takes me 2ish hours to go through the game (after it's over, naturally) and watch what each lineman does (or doesn't do) on each play. It then takes another hour or so to turn the notes into a useful format. Throw in another couple of hours when I compile it all and sort through it (I did quarterly reports this season.) and it's around 60ish hours. I think it's worth it in that I can discuss how each lineman does on passing and running plays. It's one thing to say that Fowler sucks and another to quantify just how badly he sucks in the run game.

Ron

by Ron From NM on Mar 30, 2008 9:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

wow
great stuff. thanks for letting all of us get that knowledge in a matter of minutes!
It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Mar 31, 2008 3:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fantastic stuff again
This data coincides pretty much exactly with the on-field performance - the line was adequate, the running backs were very good, and the quarterbacks, receivers and offensive coaches sucked. We knew where the offensive fixes had to come (passing game, play-calling), and this data validates our ideas 100%. Great work!
Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Mar 31, 2008 11:10 AM EDT   0 recs

Edwards still better than this shows
And Losman was probably significantly worse becuase of two factors
1.) is that the Broncos and Jags games, two of JPs worst (Pittsburgh being third) were omitted
2.) Edwards' games against NYG and CLE were poor for any QB, even though in the first have of the Giants game, before the weather swooped in, he was doing great.

I think with this taken into account you can see that Edwards made improvements from his early games, and JP regressed significantly from the season before.
Just wanted to clarify that we should be comfortable that Edwards should be given all chances to succeed, especially with some of the fixes others have mentioned

The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Mar 31, 2008 1:48 PM EDT   0 recs

QB Comparison
killascript,

QBs will kill more drives than anyone else because they touch the ball every play. It's not a knock on Edwards (or Losman) to point out that they stopped more drives than anyone else. I pointed out that Edwards had improved in terms of his stare down percentages. Losman, for his part, didn't regress. He just remained inconsistent. For better or worse Edwards is now 'The Man' because he better suits Jauron's high-percentage style. Jauron committed to him during the last part of the season and isn't likely to dump him quickly or easily this season.

Ron

by Ron From NM on Mar 31, 2008 2:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Understood
I just don't think stats, especially these, fully categorize how more competent Edwards is than Losman.
Of course the QB touches it everyplay, I mean please.
The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Mar 31, 2008 5:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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