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Offensive Line Stats--subtitled 'Fowler must go.'

Ah, that's much better. The double returns wasn't working but the p inside of the sideways carats did the trick. Thanks Kurupt.

I looked at each lineman on every play during the 14 games my recorder worked (Broncos and Jags games not didn't record). Yes, it did take quite a while and, yes, I have no life. I noted each lineman's performance on every play as good (meaning they did something that really advanced the play, pancaked a defender or did something else impressive), decent (meaning they did their job well enough for the play to go forward but nothing particularly noteworthy) and poor (meaning they screwed the pooch in some way). I then assigned grades of 95% for good plays, 75% for decent ones and 55% for bad ones and then averaged them--keeping passing and running plays separate. I also kept track of killed plays (meaning their individual screw up killed the play) and killed drives (meaning their individual screw up killed a play which subsequently killed a drive). I was not, I should note, looking at why a lineman, say, kept getting pushed into the backfield (bad technique, bad footwork, lack of hustle, etc). The game film on TV simply doesn't allow for that kind of detailed analysis.

As a whole, the team had 384 run plays and 433 pass plays during those 14 games. The linemen killed 40 (10.4%) of the running plays and 30 (6.9%) of the pass plays. Think about that for a second. Every 10th running play was derailed by one of the linemen screwing up. Yikes! The 6.9% of passing plays the linemen killed don't include plays where the QB (either one) was flattened after getting the ball to a receiver. If you throw in the bad plays (which include killed plays and plays where linemen missed their blocks and/or got the QB whacked), 92 of them (21.3%), Losman and Edwards got knocked around and/or ran for their lives every fifth play. That's just not good for a QB's confidence.

Peters graded out at 76.9% in the run game and killed 1.2% of the plays he was in for. He came out at 74.5% in the pass game and killed 0.9% of his pass plays.

Dock was very durable and was in for every play. Dock graded out at 76.8% in the run game and killed 1.2% of run plays. He came out at 74.5% in the pass game and killed 0.8% of pass plays.

Fowler, who also was in for every play, graded out at 72.5% and killed a whopping 4.4% of run plays. He did better on passing downs, coming out at 74.3% and killed 1.5% of pass plays.

Butler graded out highest in the run game at 77.9% and killed 1.3% of run plays he was in. He came out at 74.7% in the pass game and killed 1.2% of pass plays he was in.

Walker was in for all but 2 pass plays. He graded out at 75.8% in the run game and killed 2.1% of run plays. He graded out at 74.6% on pass plays and killed 2.2% of the plays he was in.

Preston, in extremely limited action (12 run plays, 23 pass plays) was the worst lineman in the run, grading out at a flat 70% but with no killed plays. He came out at 73.3% on pass plays and killed 4.4% (1 of 23) pass plays for which he was on the field. The sample is too small to be meaningful, though it does track with the larger sample from the preseason.

Chambers, also in extremely limited action (48 run plays, 56 pass plays) graded out at a surprisingly high 77.5% in the run game with no killed plays. He came out at 74.3% in the pass game and killed 1.8% of the plays (1 of 56) he was in for. Chambers was on the field for more plays as an extra lineman but I did not track those since he was a tackle eligible or tight end on those downs.

You can see why the QBs like the left side of the line. Taken together Peters and Dock allowed a defender to disrupt pass plays only 1.5% of the time. The QBs got as much pressure due to Fowler or Butler or Walker as they got from Peters and Dock combined. On pass plays there is room for improvement at C, RG and RT. While the QBs get knocked around far more than the Brady's and Manning's of the world they each had opportunities to get the ball out. As a whole, the line does a decent job of pass blocking. However, it does get significant help from the backs and tight ends. I was stunned when I added it all up and saw that Walker got help on 11.1% of pass plays. That only counts when a back or tight end helped Walker, not when a back or tight tend picked up a defender and never touched Walker's. I would have thought it would have come out much, much lower. The assistance has trended downwards in the second half of the season but that's still a lot of downs where there is one less person for the QB to throw to.

Some people seem to think center isn't an issue for Buffalo. Silly people! Fowler was responsible for killing 17 (42.5% of 40 run plays killed by the line). He needs to go, and not just where the DT pushes him. In watching the line I was struck by how many times NFL.com (game stats) or the announcers stated that Buffalo had run up the middle when they hadn't. Yes, the Bills often run where the middle of the line began the play but they almost never run between the center and (either) guard. Rather, the guard and tackle from one side crash down the line creating (the top of)an 'L' (or backwards 'L') with the center, other guard and other tackle forming the bottom of the 'L'. The tight end and wide receiver form the other wall (parallel to the top of the 'L') to create the running lane. The blocking scheme literally takes into account the fact that Fowler can't drive virtually any DT off of the ball. Butler, on the other hand, is a real find. He would definitely make the roster on the playoff teams and might even start for some of them. Watching him play it became clear why the staff likes him. He, alone amongst the Bills linemen, can be counted on to routinely finish off blocks. The others, by contrast, sometimes (not often but sometimes) quit before the whistle, allowing the guy they are blocking to get back into a slow to develop play.

This FanPost written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings.

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Holy Crap
This guy's on a roll.

Must read Diary tips

I don't think you will get much argument that Fowler is the weak link.  The coaches seem to like him, but he is a free agent.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a true center get drafted next month.

by RabidBuffalo on Mar 29, 2008 9:54 PM EDT   0 recs

Yeah
I hope a center gets drafed too.  Fowler isn't too awful, but he is in the bottom third of starting centers in the league and I will be surprised if the Bills resign him next offseason.

Also another great read.

by kaisertown on Mar 29, 2008 9:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow, that was cool
Nice job Ron.

A few things:

I didn't realize Walker had so much help in the passing game. Did teams bring multiple guys at him a lot? I seem to remember team blitzing us like crazy last year, so how did that factor in, if at all? Seems like the results would be "poor" if one guy was getting blitzed by multiple defenders.

I didn't realize Butler was so effective last year. I would have guessed he was the best at finishing off his blocks since he's so tenacious. Who was the worst at finishing blocks, if you have it?

4.4% is surprising to me regarding Fowler. I would have guessed it was much HIGHER. Were there a lot of plays where his screw up had no bearing on the result of the play? For example, he gets pushed 5 yards into the backfield but we ran a sweep so it didn't matter or Lynch spun away from the defender, etc. I really think that Butler didn't get some of the credit he deserved because the bum next to him couldn't sustain a block. The whole middle of the line would collapse because of Fowler's ineptitude.

Not bad for Chambers. He didn't seem overmatched out there, so I'm ok with him as the 3rd OT for now.

Which side was the TE lined up more often (if you took notice)??

Again, nice work. I see you edited to include the paragraph breaks, so that helps for everyone.

~K

by Kurupt on Mar 29, 2008 10:31 PM EDT   0 recs

Answers, such as they are
Kurupt,

I started tracking how much help Walker got after breaking down preseason games and seeing how often a TE or RB chipped Walker's guy. Most often the TE/RB wwould chip on his way out into a pattern. However, other times the RB/TE was in to help block only. Teams blitzed (5+ defenders) 42% of pass plays (Buffalo calls them dogs--they define blitz as 6+) and sent them from all over. Walker was only charged with a bad play when he was beaten by his guy. If the defense sent 2 guys at him then the RB or TE was responsible for blocking (or not) the defender. So, his poor rating wasn't unfairly influenced by having to block multiple pass rushers. The Bills generally put the TE on Walker's side or sent the HB/RB out his direction while Peters tended to be left more on an island. By the way, Walker himself occasionally lined up as a TE on the left side of the line with Gaines filling in at RT. Obviously enough, Buffalo ran left on most of those plays.

Butler was tenacious and there were a couple of times when I cringed because I expected a flag for after-the-whistle contact. He was the lineman most likely to pancake a defender. Peters, though I didn't keep numbers, seemed to have more bad plays due to lack of follow through than any other lineman. Several RBs were brought down from behind by a guy that Peters should still have been blocking. However, since the play when right he didn't maintain his block...not thinking that Lynch likes to cut things back.

Fowler had 72 bad run plays and 17 killed run plays. That is a lot of screwing up. He was routinely pushed off of the ball and, more often than not, the play wasn't killed in the backfield because of it. When you consider that Buffalo accounted for his shoddy play and never ran up the middle (true up-the-gut running) this isn't surprising. Of course, this came back to haunt Buffalo on third and short downs as the shortest distance to the line to gain is right up the middle. I am hoping (dreaming, chanting, praying, lighting candles, doing a rain dance, etc) Buffalo uses the 3rd rounder on whichever center they think is most likely to displace Fowler. Then the team can dump Preston, who makes Fowler look good on run plays. To be fair, Fowler isn't terrible on passing downs so it's not all bad news. Plus I read that he's a chess player. Maybe he's a really good dancer, too.

Chambers wasn't horrible but keep in mind that the sample was small. He just didn't play very many downs so I don't know that he is or isn't the answer as the 3rd OT.

Ron

by Ron From NM on Mar 29, 2008 11:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

WOW, nice work
As a former o-lineman, I can understand the amount of work that you did to get this put together and how and why you grade the way you do.

I like Butler, I really do, he has the right nasty attitude to be on that line killing guys, and I'm glad to see how he graded out.

As for Peter's lack of killer instinct as a run blocker, I can speak there with some authority. When I was in HS I played TE and DE, when I got to college I was shifted over to the o-line as a tackle, and ended up being my teams LT. Now, I love contact and hitting guys, but many many many TE's I knew over the years have not. Oh they'll block if required, but many lack that nasty streak that comes from a kid who has played on the o-line their entire careers. Peter's was a TE for many years, and while all reports say the kid likes to hit, it is still a very different set of skills and attitude to play TE vs. LT. And this is where his lack of a killer instinct in drive blocking will manifest. Over time he will lose it, but compared to guys like Butler who has been doing it for 10+ years (Jr. high to Pros) it will take some time to learn.

Fowler has killed me ever since he got here. Yeah, he is a ummmmm, ok I guess pass blocker, but man does he stink drive blocking. The man has cost us 2 seasons in a row on many a drive by not moving his man off the ball in short yardage. And it will get worse this season, sadly, since we now play 3, count them again 3 teams who play 3-4 almost exclusively in our division. And what type of guy is Fowler's worst nightmare? A Nose Guard, and thats whose going to be beating his sorry behind all over the field come this fall. I am praying the Bills use their third, or if JP is traded whatever that pick is to get a guy who can kick Fowler to the curb next year. No one in this years class is ready to start, but we might be able to live with Fowler one more season, though it will hurt, alot.

So how done was Pat Williams when we let him go Tommie boy??? Stick a fork in him level right?

by WABillsfan on Mar 30, 2008 3:40 AM EDT   0 recs

Fowler and NTs/DTs
I had thought that Fowler would do better against 4-3 DTs than against 3-4 NTs. Nope. He got pushed around by DTs about as badly as he had by NTs. Fowler averaged 5.3 bad run plays for each of the 14 games I looked at. He had 4 bad plays against the Bengals, 5 against both the Giants and Eagles and, in the two games versus the Dolphins 2 and 6 bad plays. That's a little better (4.4 bad plays in each of those games) than his aerage of 5.3 per game for the year but not by all that much. The really galling number is 6 bad run plays against the Dolphins...when that team had flat out quit. Basically, Fowler can't handle any interior defensive linemen.

by Ron From NM on Mar 30, 2008 10:26 AM EDT   0 recs

Welcome Ron
Glad to see you found this site.  Doomed was here for a very short while.  I have been advocating for the Bills to take Pollak in the 3rd.  What do you think?

by Joe P. on Mar 30, 2008 8:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Not sure about Doomed
I know he likes CBS Sportsline, but I could never stand CBS long enough to figure out what name he goes by on that site.

by Joe P. on Mar 30, 2008 9:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Realfootball365 refugees unite!
Hi Joe P,

I'm not sure what happened to realfootball365.com but they haven't allowed comments there for a while now. I actually have tried to get to the comments section on this site off an on for a while and just now got it to work.

I don't watch enough college games to get a handle on their linemen. Throw in the fact that the competition they face is so uneven and there are just too many variables. I'm just hoping for a center in the 3rd who can actually drive a DT off the ball at least some of the time.

Ron

by Ron From NM on Mar 30, 2008 8:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No kidding
365 really underestimated how long it would take for them to transition to the new format.  There are a lot of good people here too.  I am sure I will keep up with both sites.

by Joe P. on Mar 30, 2008 9:20 PM EDT   0 recs

Who can replace Fowler?
I've heard the center class is very weak, and there isn't a prospect worth picking till the late 3rd or 4th.  Chris Brown said it would be very unlikely for a rookie center to start for any team.  Heard good things about Pollack.  Any center we pick will get every shot to start in 2009 when Fowler is a UFA.
Anti-CB

by Kumario! on Mar 31, 2008 4:51 AM EDT   0 recs

This is outstanding work, Ron
We're very fortunate to have you here, Ron, giving us this incredible insight. You are the man.

I got a lot of crooked looks last year when I said that Butler may have been our best linemen. Thanks for validating my point! :)

My only problem with drafting a center this season is that none of the prospects available are known for being dominant in the run game. The two best guys in my book, John Sullivan and Mike Pollak, are guys who can get overwhelmed in the middle like Fowler does. Plus, they're not nearly as good in pass pro as Fowler is. Like someone said above, we can get by with Fowler this year - and we shouldn't draft a crappy rookie center in the third round just because we're aware of this weakness. That's bad drafting.

Anyone know of any guard prospects that could play center?

Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Mar 31, 2008 11:00 AM EDT   0 recs

Got two
-Adam Kraus, Michigan: he's 6-6 295, which is a little tall for a center, but at 6-6 he's got room to grow. More of a zone-blocker however.

-Chris McDuffie, Clemson: listed at 6-5 330, he's certainly got the size. Don't know a ton about him.

Both of these guys are most likely latter round picks.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 31, 2008 11:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Adam Kraus
hahaha, he blows
Chris McDuffie is a G/T

by bills on Mar 31, 2008 4:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

how about...
are there any gurads or tackles in this years draft that could make the switch to C?  

Idk of any, but i'm going to claim ignorant here, because scouting big men is not my thing (and i'm too busy to make an effort to look right now).  Could be an idea though....

John I.

by jri111 on Mar 31, 2008 11:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good question.
I've been wondering the same thing.

by krytime on Mar 31, 2008 12:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think you can wait another year to replace
Fowler.  Even if the new center can't displace Fowler right away, he needs to get some experience this season.  If we draft well and Edwards works out, we will need to replace Fowler to make a serious run in '09.  We might as well do it some time this year and take our lumps.  I don't agree that there are not any top prospects?  How many of the current Cs in the league were taken in the 1st round?  Nick Mangold was drafted in the 1st round last year, and Matt Birk was drafted in the 6th round in 1998. So, Probowl players can be found later in the draft.  But, your odds should be better picking from the best at the position.   Matt Birk is listed at 6'4" and 308 lbs.  Mangold at 6'4" 300 lbs,  Melvin Fowler is 6'3" 310 lbs.  Mike Pollak is 6'4" 301 lbs and is projected by many to be a late second to early 3rd round pick. Their sizes compare, wouldn't you say?  I would guess that Pollak can put on some more muscle in the off season workouts.   Fowler has proven he is not up to the job.  If Pollak can displace him by midseason, I consider that an upgrade well worth the draft pick.  I guess the difference is...Do you want someone who will push Fowler for the starting job this year (for me, a big yes), or do you want a bigger 2 year project with a greater chance of being cut.  If you look at my mock, you will see that I want both.  I feel center is the most important improvement we need to make to the offense.  Make it now, before it is to late!!!

1 - Kelly, WR
2 - Jason Jones, DE
3 - Mike Pollak, C
4 - Eric Ainge, QB4 comp - Adrian Arrington, WR - I know this might be a reach, but I bet Arrington will go much higher than expected.  This kid has huge upside.  His domestic violence issues seem to be very overblown.  This pick could be the steal of the draft.
5 - Darnell Terrell, CB
6 - Keilen Dykes, DT
7a - Doug Legursky, C -  I still would not mind Velasco with this pick, but Legursky has been working on long snapping too.
7b - Joe Jon Finley, TE
7 comp - Jehuu Caulcrick, FB

by Joe P. on Mar 31, 2008 12:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fowler and Jauron
Joe P,

If Buffalo brings in a center who performs at least as well as Fowler look for Jauron to drop the hammer on Fowler. Remember, Butler played in exactly one preseason game and displaced Preston. Jauron won't hesitate to go with a rookie (It was technically Butler's 2nd season but he missed all of the first with an injury.) if he gives the team the best chance to win. With Preston, and likely Fowler, Jauron knew that he had seen everything that Preston had to offer. He saw that Butler had at least that and opted to go for upside versus experience. Hope springs eternal?

Ron

by Ron From NM on Mar 31, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Centers
Brian,

I'd just about settle for a 450 pound tub of lard who can't be moved off of the ball at center instead of Fowler. At least the DTs wouldn't be able to live in the backfield. With that said, my guess is that an athletic center around Fowler's size could give him a run for his money. Fowler did head to the 2nd level at times so the tub of lard wouldn't be able to match him there... I guess that I come down on the side of trying something rather than standing pat.

Ron

by Ron From NM on Mar 31, 2008 3:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fowler + Losman
Does anyone know why Fowler has stuck with the team for so long?? Because Losman and him are great buddies. Fowler is a career backup that was brought in to play center. He is HORRIBLE against the run and is always being pushed around on every play. He cannot drive block his man off the ball and often gets blown up in pass coverage. I don't think Fowler leaves until next year, when Losman exits. The two are said to have great chemistry and communicate well on game day. (Does this really matter now that Losman is the backup??) No, but Losman is the only reason Fowler is still in the NFL.

With all of this being said, the Bills ALWAYS have to help him out with a guard through a double team. How in God's name are we going to be successful, let alone make the playoffs when we have to help Fowler on every run play with a double team??? Fowler sucks and so does Royal. Both of them REALLY NEED TO GO.

This was by far one of the most thorough diaries I have ever read and I loved the percentages!! You may not have much of a "life" as you say Ron, but you are obviously a very smart individual. So keep posting!!

I am a huge Bills fan! Have been since I was 5! I miss the good old days with Marv, Bruce, Talley, Ballard, Hull, Reed, Lofton and Thurman!

by cutter3232 on Apr 1, 2008 12:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Defending Fowler--Ugh!
Cutter,

I am loathe to defend Fowler but, in all fairness, he was about on par with the other linemen in terms of pass protection. Buffalo could do worse with pass protection from another center, though likely not in the running game. Even a rookie should win his individual battles in the run game from time to time...

You raise a good point about his relationship with Losman. Didn't Fowler also have a pre-existing relationship with Jauron? In either case, I hope Buffalo drafts a center and that Jauron gives Fowler the Preston treatment.

Ron

by Ron From NM on Apr 1, 2008 7:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fowler
Why is he decent at pass blocking, but lousy in the run department?  He has decent size, and like most centers, seems to be smart.  

by krytime on Apr 1, 2008 7:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Limits of my analysis
krytime,

All I can tell you is that he is a real liability in run blocking but not terrible at pass blocking. I can tell you this because he loses his individual match ups often in the run game but not terribly often on passing downs. Of course, when he does screw the pooch on pass plays he does it in a big way. (Fowler missed the block on Wilfork that got Losman injured.) Fowler does have decent size so why he does poorly in the run game must lie in his technique, leverage, footwork, power, etc. However, I can't get that detailed from watching the recording from televised games. All I can tell you is that, yes, he sucks when it comes to running plays. For me, that's pretty much all that matters. A player either does the job or doesn't.

Ron

by Ron From NM on Apr 1, 2008 8:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Your analysis
Has been welcomed so far.  Again, I applaud all of your work.  My question on Fowler here was more rhetorical.

Keep up the good work my man.

by krytime on Apr 2, 2008 11:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jeremy Newberry
The Raiders have just brought in another center in FA and now its speculated that they may cut Jeremy Newberry. Newberry went to three Pro Bowls in 2001, 2002 and 2003 and is known as one of the toughest centers in football. I know he has had recent injuries but he's still 32 and if the Raiders do cut him, I'm sure he can out preform Fowler. Just a thought for a replacement, he could be a temporary solution until we hit a better draft class of centers
It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Apr 1, 2008 2:00 PM EDT   0 recs

If the doctors
give him the green light, I would say go for it.

by Joe P. on Apr 1, 2008 3:58 PM EDT   0 recs

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