Bills Awarded Two Compensatory Picks

by Brian Galliford on Mar 31, 2008 3:18 PM EDT in News

Contrary to reports last week which indicated that the Buffalo Bills would not be receiving compensatory picks, the NFL today awarded the Bills with fourth and seventh round selections. Compensatory picks are awarded based on net free agent loss from the previous off-season; the Bills lost several prominent free agents last season, most notably CB Nate Clements and LB London Fletcher, and those losses led to some nice additional selections for the Bills.

Last week, the official site's Chris Brown reported, via team VP Jim Overdorf, that the team would not be receiving any compensatory selections. My belief that this report was Overdorf preparing for the worst has been proven correct. Even though the Bills added Derrick Dockery, Langston Walker, Jason Whittle and Josh Scobey in free agency last year (they also lost Mike Gandy and Andre' Davis, giving the team no net free agent gain or loss), the Bills will get two extra picks.

That fact alone confirms that not even NFL personnel have a clue as to how these picks are distributed. Net loss/gain has long been rumored to be the predominant factor; clearly, the quality of free agents is taken into account as well.

What This Means for the Draft
I love the flexibility that these two additional picks give the Bills in the draft. With two fourth-round selections and three seventh-round selections - as well as the remaining possibility of trading QB J.P. Losman - the Bills will have extra picks to move up in the second and third rounds if they see fit. This increases the team's chances of adding more than one impact player in this draft (most likely at WR, CB, TE or DE), just as they've done in the last two drafts (Donte Whitner/John McCargo in 2006, Marshawn Lynch/Paul Posluszny in 2007).

Thoughts on this supposedly shocking, but not really that surprising, bit of news?

Update [2008-3-31 15:44:6 by Brian Galliford]: BB.com reports that the overall selections are #132 and #251.

0 recs | Comment 34 comments

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Comments

Funny

Oh Overdorf.

Did the FO really not think these were coming? Sure, they didn't want to bank on getting them and getting left out, but what was the point of Overdorf talking to Chris Brown then? I'm still confused by that whole "story".

At least we got what we wanted!

by Kurupt on Mar 31, 2008 3:23 PM EDT 0 recs

We can work with that!

Having the extra fourth gives us some flexibility and room to move up if OBD deems it worth it. Thank you Mr. Goodell.

by LuBAR on Mar 31, 2008 3:23 PM EDT 0 recs

Don't forget

To say thank you to Mr. Gandy as well

I'm the jolly little baker and you'll find me on the label of Kaufman's Rye Bread

by DCRumbler on Mar 31, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

And Andre Davis

I'm the jolly little baker and you'll find me on the label of Kaufman's Rye Bread

by DCRumbler on Mar 31, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

7th rounders

We have three now...ours, Philly's and the comp...Now we can draft another RB!

I wonder if this bit of news would prompt the Bills to consider moving back into the 1st round by giving up their 2nd/3rd's. You know, so we can grab Harvey at #11 and a WR with the other 1st....

by Kurupt on Mar 31, 2008 3:33 PM EDT 0 recs

Woops

Touche, sir. Fixing...

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by Brian Galliford on Mar 31, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

How would that go down?

I'm not arguing, just need help understanding.

by jj24 on Mar 31, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

According to the Draft Value chart

The Bills 2nd (#41) and 3rd (#72) are worth 720 points. That's the same as the 25th pick.

However, I can't see them doing that - they need more 3rd round players, not fewer.

With three picks in the third round (get one from trading down in the first, and a second from a 4th and 6th), they can take Jordy Nelson, Martin Rucker, and Owen Schmitt...

by Krenn on Mar 31, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not high enough

The Eagles at #19, Dallas at #22, and Steelers at #23 may all be taking a WR in round #1. The #25 pick may not be high enough to get Thomas, Kelly, or Sweed.

by Joe P. on Mar 31, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Jordy Jordy!

I would love that trio being brought in, wow! Now, who would we take in the 1st and 2nd rounds though to make that a killer 5 piece combo?

So how done was Pat Williams when we let him go Tommie boy??? Stick a fork in him level right?

by WABillsfan on Mar 31, 2008 7:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

It is very difficult

to move back up into the mid to upper 1st round. I would love to see the Bills take Harvey at #11. It is hard to tell where Kelly may go, but if he has a good private workout it will be higher than the Bills will want to trade up to. But if the Bills really like Kelly, I am not sure they will take the chance on losing him. It is more likely that the Bills will use the comps to pick up a few extra guys, as I have listed in my mock. Or, they may trade some picks to get back into the late 2nd or early 3rd round and take a shot at one of the top TEs.

by Joe P. on Mar 31, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

The guy who writes

about this stuff had it almost pinpoint accurate. I'll have to find his article but it's amazing. People on BB.com had been trying to tell Chris for weeks that he was wrong about the comp picks.

Oh well, Thanks Mike. The one good thing to did for us.

by RabidBuffalo on Mar 31, 2008 3:46 PM EDT 0 recs

Found it

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=208336

by RabidBuffalo on Mar 31, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

right on

Yeah I remember reading this projection a few weeks back, I can't believe how accurate this was! that guys must have that formula pretty much nailed.

by Lance in Germany on Apr 1, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

This means we keep JP

I think this plays a huge part in us keeping JP. Now with the additional picks, we don't need to just give JP away for a fourth or fifth rounder so we can get the impact players we want. I think we end up holding out for a third round pick or keep JP. This is huge for us considering we gave up two picks for Stroud. For those that think seventh rounders can't help, their are teams out their that are in huge need for depth and grabbing young players in round six and seven ca nreally help... not to mention people can find diamonds in the rough.

by hilliarddavid on Mar 31, 2008 4:39 PM EDT 0 recs

Good call

I tend to agree. It also allows us to take a QB in the 5th-7th round range with a lot of upset that we can let develop as our 3rd QB this year and hopefully the backup for the following seasons.

With these late picks, I'd love to add raw players with speed. Take a chance on a RB or CB who needs some refinement, but can help on ST right away. I'd look at LB in the later rounds too.

by Kurupt on Mar 31, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

but

isn't it also true that having these additional picks could make it more likely that we trade JP? Now the Bills can afford to bundle JP and a pick together for an impact player.

It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Mar 31, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

What this really means

is that we get first dibs on UDFAs. That can be key considering our goal to have at least two make the team and considering past players we picked up in Greer, Pat Williams, Jason Peters, Luke Lawton (now with Colts), Shaud Williams (Yes, he was valuable at a point), John DiGorgio, Justin Jenkins, anyone I'm missing?

Anti-CB

by Kumario! on Mar 31, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Awesome news,

the seventh rounders could become fairly important for special teams this year.

Do you BILLieve?

by NYTXFAN on Mar 31, 2008 4:48 PM EDT 0 recs

Trading Picks

With all of the talk about trading picks to move up, it might be helpful to know the value of each pick. I have the first 5 rounds. Also, I don't believe comp picks can be traded, correct?

Rd 1 pick #11 - 1250 pts
Rd 2 pick #41 - 490 pts
Rd 3 pick #72 - 230 pts
Rd 4 pick #110 - 74 pts
Rd 5 pick #134 - 39 pts

So, to try to better answer Kurupt's question about taking Harvey at #11 and moving to take WR of our choice. The Eagles may very well take a WR first if the Bills don't. The Eagles pick at #19 with a point value of 875 on the draft chart. If we want our pick of WRs, we would have to trade up at least to #18 (Texans), which has a value of 900 pts. Our 2nd (490) and 3rd (230) only add up to 720 pts. Even if the Texans wanted to trade, it is unlikely they would let us have it that cheap.

by Joe P. on Mar 31, 2008 5:07 PM EDT 0 recs

Comp Picks

can't be traded.

by ThatGuy2 on Mar 31, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

great news...

great news, Definitely does give Buffalo some ammo to move around.

John I.

by jri111 on Mar 31, 2008 6:26 PM EDT 0 recs

J.P.

So, why would we trade J.P. for a late 2nd day pick, when we can keep him this year for a cheap salary and receive a 2nd day pick as compensatory pick for losing him to free agency next year anyway? I understand that we may not get a compensatory pick for him next year, which depends on the overall FA losses and gains), but I certainly don't understand the strong desire to trade him for a 4 - 6 th round pick.

by labill on Mar 31, 2008 6:30 PM EDT 0 recs

Good post.

Agreed.

Anti-CB

by Kumario! on Mar 31, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

love it

comp picks are great. Especially when it is pick 132. The 7th rounder doesn't do much for me.

I would not trade JP unless it was for a 2nd rounder. we have no one to back him up. If Trent gets hurt and we have to plug in a rookie QB late round pick or Gibran or whoever he is, the team might panic and lose confidence. Having JP there as stability is all key. There have been no signs that he is going to hold out, so keep him.

I have a hard time believe Overdorf did not expect this. These front office gurus have to be able to predict this pretty accurately.

So do we have 3 7th round picks? Whatever happened to that pick we got for Walker? We ever find out what that ended up being?

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Mar 31, 2008 6:52 PM EDT 0 recs

It was an extra fifth

Giving us two fifth-round picks. One of those was dealt to Jacksonville, along with one of our thirds (McGahee), for Marcus Stroud.

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by Brian Galliford on Mar 31, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Idea for Article

Brian or Kurupt or Siriec, I think an article about all of the difft draft trading possibilities is now in order. For example, I imagine the Bills could move up to the mid-1st round if they gave away this and next yrs 2nd rounds, or this yrs 2+3rd, and next yrs 3rd. That starts getting expensive fast though, but its all worth thinking through.

I can't see the Bills taking anyone but a WR at 11 unless a move on the draft board was assured before the draft started. If not, I think they have to cover their * and get their WR in the bag. If the opportunity is there for one of the several highly rated CB's after that, they may trade up for one of them, much like last year for Poz. But I don't think they'll be willing to risk missing on their choice of WR on the hope of moving up.

Who knows, maybe someone else will want to trade up and the Bills move down to the mid-late teens, get their WR and get even another pick around the 3rd round.

by south123 on Mar 31, 2008 9:19 PM EDT 0 recs

Trading up

from 2nd rd to 1st rd is possibe with Chargers(27)because they only 4 picks.

by ThatGuy2 on Mar 31, 2008 9:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

good idea

I checked nfl.com and they have 5 now, but yes they'd be an excellent partner as they currently have no 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks). On the down side though, they're already pretty good and don't we play them this year?

I'm expanding on your idea though and am listing all the best trade partners in the 1st 3 rounds below.

by south123 on Mar 31, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Possible Trading Partners

I counted how many draft picks each team has now on nfl.com and get the following tallies. in order of least (teams desiring to trade for more picks) to most. I've included their 1st 3 rds for some of them)

<<Teams that may want to trade down>>
Browns-4 (none before 4th rd though)
Chargers-5 (1-27, no 2,3 or 4th rds)
Buc's-5 (1-20, 2-21, 3-20)
Raiders-5 (1-4, none in 2,3rds)
Texans-5 (1-18, then 3-16)
Saints-6 (1-10, 2-9, 3-15)
Steelers-6 (1-23, 2-22, 3-25)
49's-6 (1-29, 2-8, 3-12)
Seahwaks-6 (1-25, 2-24, 3-23)
Jets-6 (1-6, 2-5, but really, they're in the division)
Cardinals-7 (1-16, 2-19, 3-18)
Titans-7 (1-24, 2-23, 3-22)
Then theres everybody else (eight or more picks), but I'm too tired

There are 2 other teams worth noting though,
Cowboys-8 (with 2 1st rounders, 1-22, 1-28)
Falcons-11! (1 first and 3 2nd round picks)

by south123 on Mar 31, 2008 10:42 PM EDT 0 recs

Some other notes on trades

If you wanted to move into the first round, these three teams seem the most willing to deal:
18th pick:Texans 900pts
20th pick:Buc's 850pts
27th pick:Chargers 680pts

The Bills picks grade out at the following point values:
11 1250pts
41 490pts
72 230pts
114 66pts
132 comp, not tradeable
147 33pts
179 21pts
219 4.8pts
224 2-3pts
251 comp, not tradeable

However, to actually make the deal a team can drive a hard bargain. Last year the Bills gave up pick 43 and 74 (700pts) to Detroit to get pick 34 (560pts). That means Detroit wouldn't take picks 43 and 92 (602pts), which was a comparable value.

by south123 on Apr 1, 2008 8:11 AM EDT up 0 recs

The more I write the less I like the idea

Last year we had 2 3rd round picks, which made moving up seem less painful. This year it seems like a bigger sacrifice, as the Bills would only have 2 picks on day one, unless a team was willing to take a 2009 draft pick in the deal.

I prefer the idea of trading down on day one if another team wants the 11 spot and getting another 2nd or 3rd round pick.

by south123 on Apr 1, 2008 8:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

Trading picks

I don't see the Bills making a drastic change in the first round unless they got an unbelievable deal. They are a conservative team by nature and wont risk losing a guy they covet just to pick up an extra pick (i.e. Whitner).

The Bills have four needs (WR, TE, CB and DE) and now have 5 picks in the top 132. I believe the Bills will use two of our picks to move up in the second or third rounds (i.e. using our 3rd and 4th round picks to move into the late 2nd.

The thing is we have too many needs to give up three picks for one. I see us only giving up our #11 pick for a mid-first and a second round (in '08 or '09) or two first round picks (maybe mid to late this years and someones '09 pick).

by hilliarddavid on Apr 1, 2008 9:27 AM EDT 0 recs

Now we must draft Schmitt

With the extra pick we've got in the 4th round we have no excuse to let the mighty force of Schmitt pass up. The only major thing people had going against him was drafting a FB as early as the 4th but with an additional 4th we simply have to draft him

"Where else would you rather be than right here, right now?"

by ArenZimm on Apr 1, 2008 9:18 PM EDT 0 recs