Lynch performance, by QB

by Thronsen on Apr 10, 2008 6:39 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

I looked at how well Lynch peformed, depending on who the QB was. Here is what I found:

Lynch with JP under center - 4.3 Yards per Carry.
Lynch with TE under center - 3.8 Yards per Carry.

This seemed pretty significant to me. Point 5 yards is a big difference. Especially if our offensive priority is running the ball.

Not trying to do the JP TE thing. But if people dont respect TE's long ball (whether because he cant or wont throw it), it definitely allows them to crowd the line of scrimmage.

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Terrible stat

Especially considering the Cincy game where Lynch had his most productive game and broke the big gainer.
Edwards throws the long ball, and well, and you cannot merely make a statement such as this without breaking down each defense played against, etc.
Rookie QB vs. 4th year guy, etc. This is a meaningless statistic

The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Apr 10, 2008 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Look a little closer....

Not sure how you accounted for the games where both played, but I'll take out the first Pats game and the Jets game where TE was hurt.

In JP's 6 games (Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Miami, New England and Jacksonville) the D's we faced were ranked, on average, 18th in the league against the rush at an average of 117 yards per game.

In Trent's 8 games (Jets, Dallas, Baltimore, Washington, Miami, Cleveland, Giants and Philly) the D's we faced were ranked, on average, 14th in the league against the rush at an average of 109.5 ypg.

I'm not sure how much of an effect who we faced had on the rushing attack, but I'm sure it was a factor. Also, TE played in the poor weather games against Miami, Cleveland and the Giants, which definitely had an impact on our running attack.

How many yards per game did Lynch have in the JP and TE games? I didn't look for that...

Hopefully you weren't creating a JP vs Trent topic. I think we're all well past that now....

by Kurupt on Apr 10, 2008 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've got some great TE vs JP fodder

But I'll save it. Suffice it to say, that stat tells me the D we faced seemed to respect JP much more than TE.

Limas would be a Sweed pick at 11. :) So would Harvey.

by Kumario! on Apr 10, 2008 11:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

More detail

For the games where both QBs played, I went through play by play and factored that in accordingly.
If you eliminate 2 of Lynch's biggest games (against Cin and the December Miami game) the difference is a bit less but still persists.
As for cold/bad weather, actually those were some of Lynchs better games (the worst ML/TE games were Baltimore, Dallas and NYJ1). If you take out Cle and NYG, the difference gets even larger.
Defensive strength is interesting, and I didnt have time to break it down by rush defense. I did see that in overall YPG for the season the defenses played were about the same (actually slightly tougher for JP).

I do think that this is an interesting stat. If teams have to respect the deep ball, they cant crowd the line of scrimmage as much. And with Lynch as the focal point of the offense thats a pretty big deal.

by Thronsen on Apr 11, 2008 10:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What if

You take out the Baltimore game. They only allowed 2.8 yards per carry this season.

I think Edwards has solid arm strength and defenses putting 8 in the box against him had more to do with the fact that he was a rookie than his arm strength.

by kaisertown on Apr 11, 2008 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

that I should not be lazy and look it up myslef.

Lynch had 84 yards on 27 carries. That is 3.1 yards per. That obviously closes the gap some, but I don't know by how much.

by kaisertown on Apr 11, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edwards

Completely agreed here. I think he has more than adequate arm strength. He's not a small guy, and he's certainly no Chad Pennington. I think people just assume he's weak compared to Losman. But who compares well to Losman's arm strength? Doesn't matter if you can throw the ball 70 yards. I don't think he'll see as much of the 8 guys in the box look this year, just because of the experience he has now.

by krytime on Apr 12, 2008 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

did anyone else read that Edwards has put 16 pounds of muscle on since the end of last season?

That certainly can't hurt.

by kaisertown on Apr 12, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Long Ball

I have no idea why Edwards was not really considered a deep threat. Skill or playcalling.

It did bother me a bit that people were so happy about his low sacks. Sure sacks suck, but its totally related to how long you wait for receivers to get open. 2 seconds and throw the ball away, doesnt matter how strong your arm is, you can throw the ball into the parking lot and your reciever isnt there.

Again, I dont know whether this was arm strength, play calling or decision making/sack avoidance.

But it did scream out to me when I saw it (I was actually looking at something else, which was how badly A-Train performed this year when Lynch was out for the NE2 and Jax game).

by Thronsen on Apr 12, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Without Baltimore

If you eliminate the worst games that Lynch had for each QB.

Baltimore for TE (which had the best run defense in the league) and Miami for JP (yeah no idea on that one).

The difference actually grows to .7.

That result shocked me too to be honest.

Im really not trying to start some noxious fight or anything. I just thought this was really interesting.

These pre draft days go by sooo slowly, trying to engage the brain.

by Thronsen on Apr 12, 2008 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i did some research

The Baltimore thing got me thinking and I decided to compare the game by game performance of Lynch compared to the opposing teams rush D.

Wk 1 - Denver - Losman at QB
Denver allowed 4.6 yards per carry - 31st in NFL
Lynch had 19 carries for 90 yards - 4.7 YPC

Wk2 - 2 - @Pittsburg - Losman at QB
PIT allowed 4.0 YPC - T13th in NFL
Lynch had 18 carries for 64 - 3.6 YPC

Wk 3 - @NE - Trent played almost the entire game
NE allowed 4.4 YPC - 26th in NFL
Lynch had 20 carries for 74 yards - 3.7 YPC

Wk 4 - NYJ - Edwards at QB
NYJ allowed 4.2 YPC - 20th in NFL
Lynch had 23 carries for 79 yards - 3.4 YPC

Wk 5 - Dallas - Edwards
Dallas allowed 4.0 YPC - T13th
Lynch had 20 carries for 66 yards - 3.3 YPC

Wk 6 - Bye

Wk 7 - Baltimore - Edwards
BAL allowed 2.8 YPC - 1st in NFL
Lynch had 27 carries for 84 yards - 3.1 YPC

Wk 8 - @NYJ - Trent and JP both played - I'm throwing it out. Lynch had 21 carries for 80 yards (3.8 YPC)

Wk - 9 - Cincinatti - Losman
CIN allowed 4.2 YPC - 20th
Lynch had 29 carries for 153 yards - 5.3 YPC

Wk 10 - @Miami - Losman
Miami allowed 4.5 YPC - 29th
Lynch had 19 carries for 61 yards - 3.1 YPC

Wk 11 - 13 - Marshawn was injured

Wk 14 - Miami - Edwards
Miami allowed 4.5 YPC - 29th
Lynch had 23 carries for 107 yards - 4.7 YPC

Wk 15 - @Cleveland - Edwards
CLE allowed 4.5 YPC - 29th
Lynch had 21 carries for 82 yards - 3.9 YPC

Wk 16 - NYG - Edwards
NYG allowed 3.8 YPC - T4th
Lynch had 18 carries for 70 yards - 3.9 YPC

Wk 17 - @Philly - Edwards
PHI allowed 3.8 YPC - T4th
Lynch had 22 carries for 105 yards - 4.8 YPC

by kaisertown on Apr 12, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice job

Great detailed work. I didnt break it down by rush defense, just total defense.

For the first NE game and second NYJ game, I went through play by play, and gave the attempts and yards to the respective QBs.

That Baltimore game is no joke, 2.8 is huge.

by Thronsen on Apr 12, 2008 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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