The Bills have no choice but to select Devin Thomas w/ #11

by moncheri on Apr 12, 2008 5:14 PM EDT Comment 24 comments

Value for money, I'd want the Bills to pick Harvey with the #11 pick. I really like Harvey, but I begin to realize that this is not going to happen. Not only do the Bills invested heavily on the current DE starters, but there is just no immediate need. And the Bills can always use their 2009 1st round pick to address depth problem at their DE position if they so desire. The Bills have to draft for what's best for this year in the early rounds, and leave the depth part for later rounds.

With Malcolm Kelly's pro day performance, not only has he dropped to the 2nd round, but it makes Devin Thomas a hotter commodity in the first round. There is no way Thomas will get past #19 Philly. There is no guarantee Kelly will be there when the Bills pick #41, so the Bills must draft Thomas with its first pick. Not only does Thomas fill in the #2 WR role, but he also addresses the kick return need (to occasionally spell off Terence McGee) this blog talked about. This, in theory, will help McGee's performance at CB.

It is possible that the Bills trade down from #11 and package with their 4th rounder to get Viking's #17 in the 1st round and #16 in the 2nd round. The Bills will then draft Thomas @ #17, and use the two 2nd rounders to draft my personal favourite Antoine Cason and Malcolm Kelly respectively. I never thought this is possible in the first place until today when I read that Dallas is likely to land Pacman Jones. Without Pacman, the Cowboys will not let Cason get past #28 of the 1st round. However, I have to concede, this is too risky of a trade. If someone trades up between #11 and #17 in the first round to nab Thomas, then the whole plan collapses.

From both value and needs, I think the Bills will draft Kelly in the 2nd round with the #41 overall pick. Yes, people might ask why 2 WR consecutively, but what is the problem of having insurance with the biggest need? Also, I think that Kelly is a very special player; the Bills cannot afford not to draft him. And this must happen by the early to mid 2nd round. Not to mention, this might give the Bills more flexibility on Lee Evan's contract come next off-season!

If the Bills are as high on Cason as I am, then I'm sure Modrak will find a way to trade back up in the 2nd round to get him (that means the Bills will need to have two 2nd rounders -- one for Cason and one for Kelly). Similar to the trade ups that landed McCargo and Poz. I think the Bills will not trade back to the 1st round to land Cason, as the price will be too stiff. But if the Pacman trade happens next week, I think it is entirely possible Cason will still be available early 2nd round.

If the Bills can land all 3 players, then it will be an awesome draft for the Bills. And I don't think my suggestion here is entirely impossible. What are your thoughts?

This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.

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my thoughts

Regarding Pacman, i have this feeling that he isn't going to be reinstated. It is just a gut feeling based on nothing, although Odell Thurman was denied reinstatement for no good reason last season and Pacman is a much more serious case.

One of the reasons I think the Bills should consider CB in the first round is the long list of teams that will be considering them late in the first and early in the second. Teams like Dallas(28), Green Bay(30), Miami(32), KC(35), NYJ(36), Baltimore(38), New Orleans(40) all have a need for a CB. Don't be surprised to see a big run on CBs before the Bills pick at 41. This could definately force the Bills to wait until the 3rd or 4th round to address the position.

"The Bills have to draft for what's best for this year in the early rounds"

I really disagree with that statement. I am really tired of this win now attitude. We have a second year QB as our starter. If the Bills make the playoffs it will be a great season. The super bowl will be a near impossible feat next year. The best thing the Bills can do is take whoever will be the best player a couple years down the road and worry less about next season. Trent is going to need time to develop. Teams without great QB play rarely make it very far. Even average QBs have trouble taking great teams past the first round of the playoffs.

by kaisertown on Apr 12, 2008 6:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Especially since it's very rare for wide receivers to contribute much in their first year.

Also, it seems as likely as not that Thomas will turn out to be a bust. He's had exactly one good year in college, and that was merely good, not great. Even if you accept the idea that the Bills need to draft either Thomas, Kelly, or Sweed in the first round, at least one of those three will be available if the Bills trade down 5-10 spots.

by rexob on Apr 12, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thomas might not be able to contribute

a whole lot as a WR in his first year. His immediate value will be on returns. But the insurance need in case Lee Evans leaves next season is an important factor.

I agree 5 to 10 spots down is better value for Thomas, but as I mentioned I don't think he'll be available at that time. I do concur that Cason might not be available in the early 2nd round. So the Bills might decide to make a trade late into 1st round for him, but it is just my opinion that the Bills are not willing to pay that price.

All these discussions are based on the speculation on what other teams will do. It's all a guessing game. And I think that's the fun part of us fans discussing the various possibilities. It could very well be that the Bills are so sure about taking Kelly with the #41
pick that they'll play safe to pick Cason with the 11th pick, and make the insurance WR pick in later rounds. We are sort of playing mind games which an NFL GM will have to normally go thru.

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Apr 13, 2008 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only way...

we make the pick at #11 is if Leodis Mckelvin is available.

If you have been reading some of the information given this offseason from OBD, they have a draft board and they stick to it. So I know they will have a player they want to select when their turn comes, but if Mckelvin is not available, we will do everything we can to trade down.

by hilliarddavid on Apr 13, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rebuilding

Unless Ralph Wilson Jr. is in agreement that this team is still under a rebuilding stage from what's left of Donahoe's "mistakes". Most teams do try to win now and get to the playoffs in the coming season by drafting accordingly.

We were 7-9 last season, and the playoffs is definitely within reach for the Bills this coming season. I know Trent needs time to develop, but that doesn't preclude the team to do get into the playoffs this coming season. Drafting Thomas doesn't mean the Bills will win the Super Bowl. We are still extremely far away. But I believe drafting Thomas will make the team better next year, and a step in the right direction towards the Super Bowl few years down the road.

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Apr 13, 2008 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rose tints your world?

The playoffs are not definitely within reach.

The clearest path to the playoffs would be to win the division. That would require knocking off the Patriots who walked through the Bills twice last season. I'm not willing to bet anything I don't secretly want to get rid of anyway that the Patriots will take a big step backwards.

The only other option is to get one of the two wild card spots. At a minimum a team has to go 10-6 to have a realistic shot at one of those. The Bills play: Home - Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Cleveland, Jets, Pats, and Dolphins. Away - Denver, Kansas City, Arizona, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Jets, Pats, and Dolphins. The Bills COULD go 10-6 against that slate of teams but to say that result is 'definitely within reach' is just dreaming at this point.

by Ron From NM on Apr 13, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rose tints your world?

I'm always an optimist :)

I think getting to the playoffs is a realistic target to set for the upcoming season. I'm not saying we will definitely get in, but it's not entirely out of reach either. If the Bills can't even think big and think about realistic potential, then they are in the wrong business.

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Apr 13, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

why aren't the playoffs definitely within reach? I think the playoffs should be the expectation next year. We were 7-9 last season with the toughest schedule in the league, a rookie quarterback going through a QB carousel, a rookie RB, a new O-Line, a string of injuries, and a couple of games we lost that could've gone either way on one play. This off-season we added a veteran tank of a DT, a solid outside LB, a solid third DT, some depth at CB, an upgrade at offensive coordinator, and we haven't drafted yet. Next season's schedule is much much easier than last year's and the Patriots have definitely taken steps backwards going into this year. They lost Asante Samuel and Randall Gay, their LBs are older and slower, and there is no way they can be as good this season as they were last, it just won't happen two years in a row. Obviously Trent has been working his butt off this off-season as evidenced by the extra 10 lbs of muscle and we already know he's a student of the game and has been reviewing playbooks and film like crazy. Our young developmental guys appear ready to bust out, especially McCargo and the coaching staff seems excited about Youboty. Then you have the maybes, a trade with philly for Lito Sheppard and their first rounder, trading down for more picks, picking a receiver who will play like Dwayne Bowe, a tight end to move chains, a fullback to bust heads, or a corner who has immediate impact and upgrade. I would say the playoffs are definitely within reach. You ask if moncheri has rose tinted glasses but I ask if you have mud-tinted glasses. Keep your head up Ron, I think this is an exciting time to be a Bills fan. The playoffs should be the expectation this year and for the next two or three. DJ's buds finally started to show signs of blooming last season and I think spring is right around the corner brother!

It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Apr 13, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

4 out of the 7

wins last season came versus the Jets and Dolphins. Which of Buffalo's 2008 opponents will be able to provide 4 games of that same level of ineptitude?

How good do you want the Bills to be?

by Fort Worth on Apr 13, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

4 out of the 7

"wins last season came versus the Jets and Dolphins. Which of Buffalo's 2008 opponents will be able to provide 4 games of that same level of ineptitude?"

The Jets and Dolphins of course.

It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Apr 13, 2008 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jets and Dolphins

"Oh, no! We suck again!" LOL!!!

How good do you want the Bills to be?

by Fort Worth on Apr 13, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

my thoughts exactly haha. The Dolphins offense is set now with Earnest Wilford hahahaha.

It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Apr 13, 2008 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No hate but

we would have been saying the same if we signed him and drafted a 5th rounder.

Limas would be a Sweed pick at 11. :) So would Harvey.

by Kumario! on Apr 14, 2008 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really?

I was under the impression that even if we signed Earnest Wilford we were going to grab a receiver in the top 3 rounds. I certainly would have been very upset if we signed Wilford and didnt at least get Jordy Nelson.

It's not delivery, It's DiGiorgio!

by poz on Apr 14, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

for your support, bro :)

This year is a critical drafting year for the Bills. They must keep up with the quality drafting from the past 2 years in order to have a nucleus of quality players to keep a sustainable playoff runs in the upcoming years.

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Apr 14, 2008 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm okay with that

If the bills decide Thomas is the best WR.
Personally, I think they like Kelly, always have and always will, and that is who they will pick. Either at 11 or if they can trade down somewhat. I think people look too much into the 40 and must realize that Kelly outperformed every other WR at the college level and at the receiving drills he conducted at his personal pro-day.
The Bills will take who they want, not D. Thomas because he has elevated the charts for ridiculous reasons.

The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Apr 13, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why Thomas will be drafted ahead of Kelly

It is my belief that, even though the Bills might rank Kelly ahead of Thomas, I cannot but think OBD will also consider the board rankings of other teams as well before they make their draft decision.

With Kelly's reduced market value, I think Thomas will be drafted ahead of Kelly (even if the Bills don't draft Thomas). I do tend to think that the market driving force of what appears on most draft boards will dictate where someone is drafted more than just one single team's draft board. Sure, a team can draft out of the blue from what other teams think, which does happen, but you probably can't optimize your picks if you do that.

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Apr 13, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why Kelly or Thomas?????

Why is it no one is talking about Sweed for our first round pick??????????

by copman40 on Apr 13, 2008 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Because

of Geronimo's (accurate) reports that the Bills are not as high on Sweed as they are on Thomas and Kelly.

Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Apr 13, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, but...

can you GUESS WHY the Bills are not high on Sweed?

How good do you want the Bills to be?

by Fort Worth on Apr 13, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Geronimo

Did he comment yet on Kelly fallout?

by krytime on Apr 13, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

Are you referring to this?:

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/comments/2008/4/9/19854/66587/18/post#here

How good do you want the Bills to be?

by Fort Worth on Apr 13, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why Devon Thomas !?!

D. Thomas; L. Sweed; J. Hardy; M. Kelly; and D. Jackson could all be gone if we wait 'till the 2nd round.
Then who do we pick ? Early Doucet !?! He's Josh Reed all over again. Anybody else will be lucky if they could beat out Sam Aiken, and he's gone. George Wilson is better than anyone left to draft. And he's on defense now.
Our D has new DTs; LBs and DBs. While our O has the same personel. Our first two picks HAVE to be D. Thomas and either TEs Keller; Davis; Bennett; or Cottam. Pick 3: the highest rated DE, say, VTech's Ellis. At 4a: CB Ty Branch or Aqib Talib could still be on the board; 4b LBs Highsmith or Hayes. My point is Thomas is the toughest, fastest, WR with the best YAC and the most upside.
Close your eyes...imagine...We're on the opponet's 7 yd line...1st and goal...Evans and Thomas wide... Parrish in the slot...TE Keller... Caulcritt (22TDs in college-that's almost 2 a game) and Lynch...Red Zone; Schmed Zone. Everyone's covered so, Edwards scampers in untouched !!

Amir FaSaad

by Amir FaSaad on Apr 14, 2008 2:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Illegal Formation

Amir FaSaad has come up with the new Bills Offense - Da 12 Pack!

5OL, QB, 2RBs, 3 WR and a TE in his post above - LOL!!!

Killascript - How do you say Kelly outperformed every college receiver last year? Man - Jordy Nelson won Best WR in Big 12 awarded by coaches.

See the comparison posted on this site of him versus Thomas, Hardy, Sweed. And the proday notes said his #'s were competitive or equal to- not better than other WR's.

I am pretty sure we don't go WR at 11, trade back and take BPO. May still be Thomas or Kelly.

by freddyjj on Apr 14, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs