New Trade Valuation

by labill on Apr 17, 2008 11:43 AM EDT

I generally agree with MARV's comment that there won't be a lot of trade partners in the early draft. But the new trade charts re-value the picks based on the rediculous contracts of the first 10 picks, so the adjustments in expectation may help.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

Also, one area of the draft that has more appeal for a trade up (by another team) is that second level in the 1st round (to get the 2nd best player at a position, for a relatively cheap price (you don't pay top 5 or top 10 money, and the difference between late teens and 11th pick is not so great considering you get the guy you want) -- apparently, a mixture of OT (Albert, Clady, Otah, Williams), RB (Mendenhall, Stewart) and DE/LB (Harvey, Rivers), and CB (any of the top 4) happens to be the very same focus for each of Denver, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Minnesota and Houston. So, moving down a few spots can be the difference between getting the number 1 guy you want and losing him to the team ahead of you.

Possibly more importantly, as the "new" chart would have it, there is a perfect match as to trade values (those teams can give their 1st and 3rd for our pick), that will faciliate the trade. It values the 11th pick at 1,320 points and makes a mid-1st and 3rd rounder a perfect match in points.

As examples, Detroit (looking at say, OT or Mendellhall) and Minnesota (OT or Harvey) are two very good possibilities -- the chart tells us that if we move down about 4 spots in the 1st round with Detroit, we could get their 1st (15 pick) and 3rd (76 pick) -- and the points favors the Bills only a tiny bit (only by 30 points); move down 6 picks with Minnesota, at get their 1st (17 pick) and 3rd (they have two -- 73 pick) -- that favors Minnesota by a tiny bit(only by 25 points).

So, a 3rd round pick is what we could get if we move down a few spots (I think, in the old system, it may have been a 2nd rounder) -- I think we let those teams salivate at (and think of losing) Harvey (move ahead of Denver to "steal" him), Clady/Albert (Carolina might grab him) and Mendenhall, trade down and grab Devin Thomas (we have no choice but grab the best WR we can).

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

Good stuff

This new trade chart lowers the value of picks in the top 5 and actually inflates the value of picks 6 - 32 (or 31 for this season).

This new chart would actually make it more lucrative for the Bills to attempt to trade down. It would also make it more difficult to tade back into the first round. If the Bills want to move up 5 - 8 picks, this trade chart is very similiar to the old charts. If the Bills wanted to make a big move (like trading up to SD's pick at 27) it would make them give up a little more than we are used to.

by kaisertown on Apr 17, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

Poz trade up

Interesting what you say. That really says a lot about how much we paid to move up last year to get Poz -- we gave a high 3rd rounder to move up (I think 8 spots) in the 2nd round. We really paid more than premium to get the guy we wanted -- I am all for that.

by labill on Apr 17, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

It only works if teams want to trade

There are a lot of trade charts floating around this year. I think we can expect teams wanting to trade up pointing at the new charts and the teams at the top of the round pointing at the old one.

by Ron From NM on Apr 19, 2008 10:51 AM EDT reply actions