Dolphins' Pick is In; Good News for the Bills
In a development that has taken place remarkably early, the Miami Dolphins have agreed to terms with offensive tackle Jake Long on a 5-year, $57.5 million contract ($30 million guaranteed), which will make Long the first overall pick in Saturday's NFL Draft. The Dolphins have been negotiating with Long for over a week; the team, headed up by Bill Parcells, had also been rumored to be interested in defensive ends Chris Long (Virginia) and Vernon Gholston (Ohio State).
While at first glance it may not be the best news to hear that the draft's elite tackle prospect will be playing in the division, this is a development that could be a favorable one for the Buffalo Bills. It has been quite some time since the clear best option for the Bills in the draft has been to trade down; the Bills, who are likely to target a wide receiver or cornerback with their top pick, could trade down and still pick up the top player on their board (whoever that may be).
With Long off the board at the top pick, the draft stock of other top-flight offensive line talent immediately rises. Specifically, Boise State's Ryan Clady, Virginia's Branden Albert and Vanderbilt's Chris Williams are now players that teams picking immediately below Buffalo could target in a move up. There have always been players that teams could target in a move up, but with the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots also likely to target offensive linemen in the top ten picks, one of those top linemen could be too tempting to pass up for a team below Buffalo.
Last year, the Bills surprised draftniks everywhere when they took Stanford QB Trent Edwards in the bottom of the third round of the draft. Those same draftniks were surprised again (along with everyone else) when Edwards proved that he could win games at the NFL level right out of the gate. Now, draft experts are looking for the next Trent Edwards, and CBS Sportsline's Clark Judge thinks that that player is Edwards' former backup.
This is one last reminder, folks - tomorrow morning (which could technically be midnight tonight or any time tomorrow), Buffalo Rumblings is switching over to a new blogging platform called SBN 2.0. So take one last good look around you, because today is the last day you'll see Rumblings as it appears now. The new platform is spiffy, but there will be a bit of a transition period. Please know that myself, as well as the tech gurus (who will have a "this is what you should do now that we're upgraded" post up immediately after migration) will be around tomorrow to assist you with any questions or feedback you may have. Stay tuned!
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57 comments
Comments
Better than Chris Long
by poz on Apr 22, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Transition
by Ron From NM on Apr 22, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No need to worry
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
It was really improbable that Long would slip to KC at 5 and there isn't another OL who could go in the top 4, so the value of Brandon Albert, Ryan Clady and the others is the same as it was yesterday.
I would be surprised if any team is willing to move up to 11 for Jeff Otah (unathletic, will be relegated to RT) or Chris Williams (not physical or aggressive enough to be dominant). If a team is moving up to grab an O-Lineman it will be to grab a surprisingly available Albert or a potentially great run AND pass blocker in Clady. I still think the Bills best chance of moving down is Mendenhall or Harvey. There are too many solid OTs for someone to move up more than a couple spots.
i agree with Poz that the good news for Bills fans in this news is that the Dolphins have the number 1 pick and aren't picking the best player. Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey might not fit their scheme as well as Jake Long does, but I think both will be better pros.
by kaisertown on Apr 22, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
improbable
by sireric on Apr 22, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
It will be interesting to see if the potential Jared Allen trade shakes up the top ten at all. That deal is much more likely to impact who will still be there at 11 then Jake Long signing a few days before the draft.
Should we be cheering for the Chiefs to go DE so that Albert might slide, or should we want KC to take Albert so that the Jets take a DE, making it possible that a CB the Bills like is still there? I am confusing myself.
by kaisertown on Apr 22, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this platform...
One question I've had, and it does stem from RF365's difficulties - why are you doing this so close to the draft? A move like this so close to such a high traffic day is playing with fire if you ask me.
This site, and it's members, have grown on me, and I've really enjoyed the discussions and banter. I think we'd all be a little disappointed if something "RF365 like" happened this Saturday. Just make sure those tech guys are on standby...
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you've got a baseball team that you like
by sireric on Apr 22, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Krytime
1. This platform is "new" here, but it's been in beta testing since around Christmas time. It's been live on the baseball blogs since mid-February. A very, VERY large amount of the bugs have already been worked out. The platform has received an incredibly favorable response across the network to this point, and I'm confident you'll feel the same way this time tomorrow.
2. The tech guys are already on standby. This tech team is incredible - they built this new platform from the ground up specifically for sports bloggers (which is why it's so awesome), and they join literally every blog they migrate to field questions and take feedback. Nowhere else probably on Earth will you find a tech team that's more interactive and more willing to play to the preferences of its readers. They're truly marvelous, and we (the bloggers at SB Nation) owe them a lot.
3. We're migrating before the draft because, well, it's the draft. Traffic will still be through the roof, and the new features - specifically auto-refresh comments and the ease of use within open threads - will make Saturday's experience much smoother than it would have been on this platform.
4. As sireric said above, you can actually create your SB Nation account now. Just click here, fill out the information, and then "claim" your account here and at any other SB Nation blog you're a part of. You'll then be a part of the blog automatically when it's migrated, and all your old diaries (now renamed "FanPosts") and comments will be claimed under your new network account.
And again, if you have problems tomorrow, feel free to e-mail me directly.
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In Brian I Trust
As always my friend - nice work...
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing wrong with that.
The draft has become yet another event that the NFL provides to us and gets us all anxious about. The schedule is just the beginning, now on to the draft. Its not as much fun as the weekly 3 hour feeding we get during the season, but its what we have now. The Yankees suck already this year (new manager, same pathetic result), so I am glad and appreciative to have this.
by JTM1023 on Apr 22, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's funny..
It makes me wonder if I should serve myself flat, awful tasting draft beer, and make myself pay $6.50 for it.
Also, I could invite some of my local Allentown drunks over to block my view. I could then say, "Dude, you're in the wrong seats. You're section is the next one over."
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Better yet
by Zumone on Apr 22, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My first Bills Game
I've got the wife taking my daughter out of town for the WHOLE weekend. Just me the t.v., the computer, in my under wear, drinking beer, eating cold pizza, conversing with you fine folk.
by sireric on Apr 22, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My advice to you...
I'm good from Sat at three on. But Sunday Morning, I'm suddenly faced with a dilemna - the first scheduled softball practice of the season.
[Dear God - please make it rain (not the Pacman way) on Sunday morning, from 10 until 5. I am putting an extra twenty in the Church envelope, FYI. Thanks in advance.]
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other accounts
When the move was made in the baseball blogs I couldn't log in to my account because it had said that my screen name was already in use at a different blog (diebytheblade). From then on, I haven't been able to log on to the baseball blog even though my password wasn't any different. I hope that this doesn't effect this site as well, as I agree with a number of guys on here that this is the best football blog on the web.
Thanks
by Fucilli5 on Apr 22, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It will
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jordy Nelson
by cmagic7747 on Apr 22, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rams can make the difference
by labill on Apr 22, 2008 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Greatest ever on paper
by LuBAR on Apr 22, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In My Dream World
by labill on Apr 22, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
please dont ever do that again
by poz on Apr 22, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rams can't
by ThatGuy2 on Apr 22, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's wrong.
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rams
by ThatGuy2 on Apr 22, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rams Can Negotiate With Anyone Other Than Jake Lon
by Ron From NM on Apr 22, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you trying to be "thatguy?"
The Rams probably have three guys targeted. They now get a chance to see which guy will take the best offer, and that is important when you consider the amount of gauranteed money the top picks are getting.
Take Russell last year as an example. He held out for so long, you could argue his rookie year was a wash - nothing really gained. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he got about a six year, sixty million dollar deal. Well, if you take away that "wasted" rookie year, your team just threw away about ten million dollars. That's about nine percent of your cap room.
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am THATGUY
by ThatGuy2 on Apr 22, 2008 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone owes the Dolphins this year
by Ron From NM on Apr 22, 2008 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
by ThatGuy2 on Apr 22, 2008 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you're wrong
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good bye B3J....Hello NYTXFAN.....
by NYTXFAN on Apr 22, 2008 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RE:
As far as making any impact on the Bills. None, whatsoever. The Key will someone fall out of the top 10 to the Bills somehow? I wish there were better QB's this year. That would only help the Bills. Instead only matt ryan is probable to go in the 1st 10 picks
by MARVelous on Apr 22, 2008 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't get it.
I happen to disagree with you, because that's a debatable point. I'll let that slide. But then...
Even if you don't think Jake Long to Miami has an immediate effect on Buffalo... it does have BIG effect on this second point! Teams will scramble for O-Line talent now. There could be a lot of shuffling in the top ten. That could very well cause someone who wasn't expected to slide to be available at Buffalo. So I don't get how you can logically follow one argument with the other there.
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brian
What could possibly shake out differently than before?
by kaisertown on Apr 22, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That point...
by JTM1023 on Apr 22, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since when?
Clearly, nothing is definite. But two teams that were hoping for Long to fall - St. Louis and Kansas City - no longer have that option. That makes guys like Clady and Albert more viable options in their eyes. That makes other tackles, like Williams, more attractive to teams considering moving up outside of the top ten. It's a trickle down effect. The other possible side effect is that a team could reach a bit higher than expected for a lineman (look for Clady to go earlier than expected), causing another high-profile name to slip.
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mock drafts
I do agree with you that if many of the other teams do try for O-Line help, then we pretty much will have out "pick-of-the-litter". The only thing that will hurt us is if those teams you mentioned give up on O-Linemen and decide to take what we covet. Their value of defensive linemen and backs must've risen. They may also see that taking one of the other O-Line guys would be a reach in the Top 10. Saturday afternoon is going to be very interesting. IMO the Bills should still trade down and get their receiver in the bottom 20-25 picks.
by JTM1023 on Apr 22, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes...
I don't think that hurts us in the least - because if they're taking what we "covet", it's certainly not a wide receiver. Not that high. That lets us trade down for a team looking for a lineman (that were just passed on) and pick up our top wideout and an extra pick (or extra picks). That doesn't hurt us at all.
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
STL simply won't take Clady or Albert. They, like Atlanta, will draft a defensive player.
I also don't think that Williams or Otah are the kind of prospects teams will conisder trading up to 11 to get. If anything the Bills probably wanted Jake Long to fall to KC at 5 making it more likely that Clady will be available. I'm starting to think that the Patriots will take Albert. they could play him at RG now. Stephen Neal is on the wrong side of 30 and had offseason shoulder surgery. Walter (from Walterfootball .... obviously) had that in his last mock. Albert could be their LT or RT of the future as well.
If Jake Long was going to go in the top 3 anyways, In what scenario are the players available to Buffalo any different than before?
by kaisertown on Apr 22, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not about the players
Right now, Clady, Albert and teams coveting a lineman hold the key to the top ten. Either those teams will reach for those two guys and other big-name prospects will fall (helping Buffalo), or they'll stick to the popular opinion, those linemen will fall, and teams will look to move up (helping Buffalo). Having Long off the board at #1 creates a slight shift in how teams value the next two linemen, similar to how the Bills shifted their draft grade on John McCargo when he was the best DT available for two rounds on their board. That's what is important here, not the big-name prospects themselves.
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
“Right now, Clady, Albert and teams coveting a lineman hold the key to the top ten.”
I agree. Clady, Albert and maybe McKelvin or DRC are the only potential top 7 picks that have a chance to slide to 11 and where they get drafted will have a direct impact on who the Bills pick and the way the top 10 shakes out in general.
I think the John McCargo example is so extreme that it barely applies here. OT is probably the deepest position through the first 2 – 3 rounds of the draft. Teams will have lots of options in round 2 (Nicks, Cherilus, Collins, Baker) and round 3 (Duane Brown, Tony Hillis, Oniel Cousins, Barry Richardson) A dropoff as extreme as McCargo won’t really occur until sometime in the mid to late third round.
“Having Long off the board at #1 creates a slight shift in how teams value the next two linemen”
This is where I really disagree.
The Rams and Falcons won’t draft an O-Lineman. They would have taken Long though. The Raiders weren’t considering OT to begin with. The value of Clady and Albert for those teams hasn’t changed. They simply weren’t and still aren’t options.
The Chiefs have been planning on Jake Long not being available. They already had their board set up for the first five picks. I don’t see how Long going one vs. going two or three changes anything for the Chiefs.
by kaisertown on Apr 23, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
Teams will not "scramble" for O-line talent. It is not as if this is a huge shock. I guess my point is, since we knew all along that Jake Long would be picked high why does this matter?
And who do we think is going to fall at #11 for the Bills to take or have someone trade up to get?
by MARVelous on Apr 22, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure they will
It's not about players - we all know who the big-name guys are (or at least who the media says the big-name guys are, at any rate). It's about what Long does for the best O-Line talent left, and their draft status, that's important here.
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
Sure every selection has a trickle down effect on the board. But to think that this will have such an impact on the draft is not a nascent idea or a keen insight. Now if Atlanta passes on Ryan, or if Oakland drafts McFadden, those will have more immediate impacts on Top Ten.
Jake Long, Gholston, Matt Ryan, Chris Long, Dorsey, McFadden, will all be gone by 10. The question is what combination of the next 4 players will be gone? The best case for Buffalo is no CB or WR is off the board at #11.
by MARVelous on Apr 22, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Copernicus reference..
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brian 's right
by ThatGuy2 on Apr 22, 2008 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate the Dolphins, but...
by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rematch of Capital One Bowl??
by the Skycap on Apr 22, 2008 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Giants
And their cornerbacks - Sam Madison and Aaron Ross? Madison is a 4-time Pro Bowler drafted in the 2nd round, and Aaron Ross was the 1st round pick last year.
by Krenn on Apr 22, 2008 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point exactly Krenn
by the Skycap on Apr 22, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely
I'm just saying that if you want an example of a team that's getting great production despite (specifically) WRs and CBs drafted late, the Giants isn't the team to look at. For that, the Super Bowl wins of the Patriots are better examples, as painful as it is. They had great blocking by the line, giving Brady time to throw to, uh, well, nobodies. Troy Brown? 8th round. David Patten was undrafted, and David Givens was 7th round. Deion Branch was the only highly drafted wide receiver of the bunch (2nd round.)
I've got to go find some mouthwash now; that's too much talking about the Team That Must Not Be Named.
by Krenn on Apr 22, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Early wake-up call, folks
R.I.P., Rumblings 1.0.
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2008 10:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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