My take on why the Bills cant go wrong in Rd 1

by Berg79 on Apr 22, 2008 2:04 PM EDT

For the first time in a while, I come into this draft with full confidence in our decision makers. I admit I had a temper tantrem when the Bills took Whitner over Ngata and then almost broke my hand punching my door when they moved back up to take McCargo over Justice. However, the front office has been spectacular over the last 2 years and especially this offseason. My explanation below will show I think it will be much harder to disappoint me then ever before as I am ok with the Bills going numerous different directions in Round 1.

We are a 7-9 team who should have a slightly easier schedule. Look at what upgrades we will have for 2008:

Defense: DL: Add a starting DT Stroud and a depth DT Johnson. Lost Triplett who realistically is aging and probably an avg depth D tackle. LB: Basically add 2 starters, Mitchell and Poz. As most of your know Poz played 2.5 games and we kept his replacement Digiorio. CB: Add a nickle/Dime Corner in Will Allen and a FS in Simpson. So basically you have added 6 potential players to your top 15/16 D players and lost 1. Sounds like a better D to me.

Offense: Ok, I know the offense was bad last year, but how have we made it any worst? In fact I believe the offense is already better right now than it was last season. First you lost Price and Gaines. THat is a total of about 30 catches for 300 yards and 2 tds. The offense is better because you now know who your #2 RB is in Jackson, Lynch and Edwards will have a full offseason to prepare, Evans is in a contract year and most importantly the offensive line has a year of familiarity and cohesion under their belt. So if the offense isn't worst then in my opinion if we can add a rookie WR even in round 2 or 3 that can put up avg #'s like 35-40 catches for 400-500 yards and 3 tds the offense will have more productivity on the field than last year. Theoretically, that will open Evans up (even if it is a third roundd WR) for 70-75 catches 1100 yds and 8 tds. I for one think Lynch and Jackson will put up better numbers in the upcoming year that last year (I know many of you agree) so in place the Bills already have a better more productive offense. Basically, I believe as long as you add a WR in Round 1-3 your offense is better.

That gets me to my final point which is the Bills should take the best player (I personally belive that is either Albert or Harvey), however just an FYI on my draft board WR Hardy is my top WR at #16 overall which isn't much of a reach. If the O-line gets better great, D-line gets Harvey great. No matter what the Bills are already substantially better on D and arguably better on offense than last year's 7-9 team. Therfore, if your #1 pick takes a good unit (like O-line) and makes them great then so be it, I for one will be ecstatic.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

Berg - you have a new friend.

I agree with all of your comments about the O being better, not to mention the D as well; the team really is in good shape approaching the draft.

As far as the offense goes, don't forget that saying good bye to SF will be addition by subtraction.

And, you've reiterated what I've been saying all along - we need a WR, but it doesn't have to be in the 1st or even 2nd round.

If they stay at #11, I like Alberts and/or Harvey. Rivers might be a BPA available too. And it'd never surprise me to see one of the top remaining CBs taken there too. I could live with all of these picks at that spot. Then they could address WR and TE in rounds 2-4, where they have four picks as it stands right now.

With the "additions" you mentioned above (Stroud, Johnson, Poz, Simpson, Mitchell, & James), combined with at least three guys coming out of the draft who should be able to contribute right away, the 2008 season is looking better than many in recent years......in my opinion at least.

by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 2:48 PM EDT reply actions

TDs

The Bills need to do a lot more than add 3 TDs from the #2 receiver. The offense managed just 20 TDs total during the season. That's just pathetic. The offense put Lindell in position just 27 times during the season, which says that an awful lot of drives never made it inside the 35ish yard line. The Bills need a stud #2 WR and a pass catching TE more than anything else at this point. Getting those guys won't send the Bills deep into the playoffs but perhaps the team might actually get to play a game in January. The defensive line, CBs and C are all still likely to be areas of need after the weekend.

If the front office does a good job of evaluating talent (draft and free agency) the Bills could go deep into the playoffs after the 2009 season and possibly be a realistic Super Bowl contender after the 2010 season. But, as success breeds success, I'd rather see the Bills get the guys who will at least change the 'loser' perception immediately. That, in turn, may entice more free agents to consider joining the Bills.

by Ron From NM on Apr 22, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

Ron....

Since you seem to be the resident expert on Offensive Linemen what do you think about Brandon Albert and if we took him at #11? I wrote on a different post that my opinion is this would be a very "luxury" choice and really wouldn't address one of our team's top five needs (WR, CB, C, TE, WR). I also don't think Albert could play center in the NFL....

I understand we could use a little OL depth but that could easily be addressed in the later rounds with one pick. I would like to see a John Sullivan or Adam Spieker taken in the 4th, to challenge Fowler but also be capable of backing up either guard spot with Whittle. We have Murphy and Chambers as our OT backups, but if something did happen to Peters or Walker.... just give Butler (who is and has a OT body) a lot of OT reps in the offseason to be the first backup, then Sullivan or Spieker would slide into the RG spot (Preston is terrible).

I truly believe Albert would be a poor choice in the first round for us and if there is any need for linemen security I think it would be drafting Red Byrant to spell Stroud. Stroud is up there in age and coming off of two seasons with injuries, I wanted Bryant before we got Stroud and I still want him.

by Harris on Apr 22, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Hi Harris

I have said several times that I don't watch enough college games to evaluate draft prospects. Not only would it require seeing all of his games but finding a way to weight the uneven quality of his opponents every week. With that said, the NFL teams seem to think highly of him. I won't throw things at the TV if the Bills pick him as there is no offensive line depth worth noting. If they do draft him at #11 it won't be so he can ride the pine. If he's the choice my guess is that he either plays center or the Bills (rather cruelly) shift Butler to center and make Albert the RG.

I have also said several times that no position on the team is a bigger need than WR. The passing game simply won't improve without a legitimate #2 WR across from Evans. C is the second most pressing need. The running game will improve only when the Bills have a center who doesn't do a blocking sled impersonation. However, centers are available in the 3rd or possibly even the 4th. As noted above, however, drafting Albert (assuming he slides to #11) would in some way be aimed at addressing the problem at center. TE is the third most important need but, if the Bills want one of their top rated TEs, must be addressed no later than the second round.

by Ron From NM on Apr 22, 2008 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont know....

I guess I just have a problem with either Butler or Albert attempting to play center for us. Both of them are 4 inches too tall and neither of them have any experience.

Is Albert a good prospect? Sure, but there are far greater needs that have to be addressed like you said. Also, how in the world is Edwards supposed to survey the field and throw over this O Line....

Peters 6-4, Dockery 6-6, Butler 6-7, Albert 6-6, Walker 6-8

That would have to be the tallest O Line in history.

by Harris on Apr 22, 2008 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Use a 3rd, save a 1st

Why don’t we simply wait a bit to take the highest rated center on our board. Just a guess, but if it’s Pollack, we could have him possibly with our relatively high 3rd. Then we can keep Butler and Walker set, remove Fowler (who has quickly become the team goat, stealing the honors from Reed or Royal), and use our 11 spot to nab Harvey, trade down, or take the best WR on the board.

GO BLUE!!!

by Kumario! on Apr 24, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Red Bryant could be

the next Pat Williams.

by jj24 on Apr 22, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Red Bryant

is the next Pat Williams.

I am praying that we trade down and pick up an extra #2. Something like this would be absolutely incredible:

1- Sweed
2- Red Bryant and Jordy Nelson
3- Some CB
4- John Sullivan/Adam Spieker and Kellen Davis

I'm not a fan of the trade back up into the late first early second this year unless we trade down from #11.

by Harris on Apr 22, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Who are you Red Bryant people?

I've been ringing his bell for awhile now. Where have you been to get my back????

by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I like him

but I can't see us taking a DT early this year. Unless we can accrue some more early picks, we have to fill our other needs first...

by Kurupt on Apr 22, 2008 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

A lot of people are making the argument that Albert would be a solid pick, but there would be a very good possibility that he wouldn’t even play this year, just add depth. Red Bryant would rotate in with Stroud immediately while providing excellent depth in case one of our DL went down. If Stroud gets injured this year and we don’t have a player like Bryant to step in…. how is our DL any different than a year ago?

That, and thinking Bryant is a dominant run-stuffer is the reason I am praying he’s wearing a Bills uni next year….

by Harris on Apr 23, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

You just explained exactly why the Bills won’t take Albert at #11, unless they feel he can play center, which is unlikely. That said, I don’t see us addressing DT early unless there’s a high value selection either.

by Brian Galliford on Apr 23, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

I have Red going in the third. What about you?

by krytime on Apr 23, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

He might sneak into the second, kry. He’s being viewed as a safer pick than some of his DT peers, and it’s boosting his draft stock a bit.

by Brian Galliford on Apr 23, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

As much as I like him..

I couldn’t see taking him in the second here, unless we traded down significantly, and picked up two or three extra picks in rounds 2-4.

Don’t you just hate it when it seems one of the guys you really like probably won’t be available in the spot you want him to be?

by krytime on Apr 23, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

See: Nelson, Jordy.

by Brian Galliford on Apr 23, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

I didn't catch this earlier.

Ditto. Doubt they get Nelson. Combined with my doubt they get Red, I’m 0 for 2. Toss in Finley, and I’m 0 for 3.

To make sireric feel better, I once predicted Calais Campbell had the most potential to be a huge steal, a player for the ages. What a loser thought that seems to have been. While he (CC) sat on the couch eating doritos while preparing for the combine, I decided to watch channel 721, which had a special on crow recipes.

by krytime on Apr 24, 2008 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Bryant and Nelson

Before this “new” trade chart started circulating the Bills and the Eagles were perfect trade partners, swap firsts and grab the Eagles second. That’s the trade down I was hoping for which could easily lead to both Bryant and Nelson…. if of course OBD wants them.

by Harris on Apr 24, 2008 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Calais Campbell

He still has that potential, he just needs to put the cheeseburgers, and slushies down.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Apr 24, 2008 6:54 AM EDT up reply actions

TDs

They need more TDs, but from everywhere, not just the 2nd WR spot. The offense as a whole was anemic last year, and that's being polite.

I actually think they will go into this season as a team considered to make the playoffs, although it may be a long shot. Next year, if the improvement continues like it has, they should be a sure bet.

I don't think they have that "loser" perception you speak of. I think Jauron is a class act, and represents Buffalo around the league very well. A lot of people in and out of fotball last year were impressed with how the Bills played, despite all of the adversity they faced. That speaks well for them...

by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

Losers

Teams that come close to finishing out a decade with zero playoff appearances are viewed by many, if not most people, as losers. Free agents, particularly younger ones, want to set themselves up for future big paydays. Teams that make the playoffs tend to have more Pro Bowlers than teams that don't. Pro Bowls turn into contract dollars. It's kind of a vicious circle. Throw in the fact that older free agents (like Randy Moss) are often hoping to join a team that they can ride to a Super Bowl and the picture gets even worse.

Buffalo has to build a culture of winning and has a chance to do that this year. There have been some roster upgrades, some guys are coming off of injuries, hopefully the draft will produce and the schedule doesn't seem as brutal as it has the past couple of years. If not now, when?

As for the #2 WR comment, last year teams could rush 4 and get decent pressure. They could then put 2 guys on Evans, 1 guy on Reed, 1 guy on Royal, 1 guy on the other TE (pick one) and have 2 guys hang around waiting for Lynch to get a swing pass out of the backfield. A real #2 WR and an improved TE should allow the #2 WR and/or the new TE to beat single coverage and make some plays. If they do it enough teams will change how they defend the Bills which should allow Buffalo to do more with the ball.

by Ron From NM on Apr 22, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Blame Donahoe

You can blame him for setting back the team (although not financially). But the current administration seems to be well regarded, and in my opinion, has them on the right track. They are in good cap shape and have a decent nucleus to build around. I think fans, and free agents, are both willing to look past those Donahoe years, and focus on what could be a solid playoff contender for years to come..

I won't get into the #2 WR talk much here. Just let me ask this: if Lee Evans is a supposed #1 WR, and he can't beat double teams, is he really a #1 WR?

Do we need better play from the WR opposite Evans? Absolutely. And, we need better receiving play from our TEs. With that said, Evans could do well enough to step his game up. This might be the best way to improve the passing game this year.

by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Indeed.

Once we get the ball rolling, things will pick up fast from there. Then again, we’ve been trying to move this thing the last 8 years. 04 was the closest, 05 was th biggest disappointment.

GO BLUE!!!

by Kumario! on Apr 24, 2008 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions

I kinda agree

There are plenty of players who would make good picks at 11. The Bills would really have to take a shocker of a pick to upset me.

There are varying degrees of success though. Everyone was calling the Whitner pick a reach and in retrospect they were right. The 5 players selected after Whitner were:
Ernie Sims
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Haloti Ngata
Kamerion Wimbley

So well Whitner wasn't a bad pick, it certainly wasn't the best pick the Bills could have made. The same goes for McCargo. The Bills DID move up higher than they had to. Jonathon Joseph and Santonio Holmes, two clear first round calibur prospects went right before Buffalo traded up for McCargo. Players like Nick Mangold, DeMeco Ryans and Matthias Kiwanuka would look as good or better in a Bills uniform than McCargo does and all 3 were taken within the next 5 or so picks.

by kaisertown on Apr 22, 2008 3:05 PM EDT reply actions

TD's and prior draft

First, on the prior drafts: I agree w. you that the Bills have reached and not taken certain players that turned out great (Ngata for ex). However, to me what is extremely important is they are not using the high picks and getting busts. To me it is more critical to get solid starters Whitner, McCargo, Edwards, even Lynch who was a small reach who are NFL starting players than to risk a bust. Let your 4th - 7th round picks be boom or bust guys. (On a side note neither Leinart nor Cutler have established themselves, and one could argue that Whitner has been as effective at his role as Sims, Ngata or Wimbley). Maybe you wont get the best player btw picks 11 and 20 but I will be happy with a player as effective as whitner or lynch regardless of the position.

Regarding Td's, I agree the offense was awful last year. My point is that the offense right now is not worst than it was last year. So, if a rookie WR gets you 400-500 yards, 40 catches and 3 td's those numbers and there presence should open things up for Evans and the Lynch/Jackson combo. I think a 2nd or 3rd round WR can put up those #'s above. They might not be a top 10 offense but it is realistic to think they could be in the middles of the pack at 15-16. Additionally, I hope and somewhat expect the D to be top 10 which should give us playoff potential. Remember, how Jauran built Chicago when they made the playoffs, it was D and running. Again, I wont be shocked if they go D-line or O-line.

If they go WR I hope it is Hardy.

by Berg79 on Apr 22, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions

prior drafts

I pretty much agree with you. But it is very important for teams to turn top 10 picks into difference-making superstar talent. Lynch looks like a good bet to become that (if he isn't already), but Whitner doesn't look like that kind of player.

Last season Cutler completed 63.6% of his passes. He threw for 3,497 yards and 20 TDs. He is more established than any QB the Bills have had in awhile.

I don't think you can make an argument that Whitner is even in the same realm as Ngata.

Leinart certainly hasn't established himself at all and Wimbley and Sims have seen similiar success to Whitner.

"Let your 4th - 7th round picks be boom or bust guys."

you need some players to "boom" and guys picked that late rarely do. You become a great team by having great players. I would rather have a couple superstars on both sides of the ball and try to build around them, then have 22 starters that are good players and were safe picks that were obvious non-busts.

by kaisertown on Apr 22, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll take the safe picks everytime.

It costs too much money if you draft a guys high and he flops. I'll take the safe picks, and presume a couple will turn into a star of some sort.

Also, don't discount those late rounds, or Free Agent signings. We have a bunch of those guys on this team, and it seems we like 'em all...

by krytime on Apr 22, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

WR Hardy

I agree with you up until you have Hardy as your receiver. Numerous posts about taking Hardy, can’t understand why????I hear the Bills are OK with his character,, But numerous scouting reports have him as not crazy about physical contact and refusing to block. They all say he is a great Red Zone threat. profootball weekly states he will have trouble making it as a #2 receiver. Why would the Bills be interested in him?????

by copman on Apr 23, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions

Hardy

Why Hardy? Well… since the Bills are ok with his character concerns then so am I. He produced in an offesnse where he was the focal point, he did not have many other weapons to take the pressure off of him at Indiana and went up against high quality big 10 opponents whose best corner marked him and usually drew double teams. Compare Hardy’s numbers to either Thomas or Kelly and they are the same in 07 yet hardy has competed at a high level for 3 years in college. His size is a perfect fit as our #2 and his is speed 4.5 40. I watched him play in a few games and this guy goes over the middle and catches many short passes so I dont worry about him shying from contact. In regards to blocking, I think many college WR’s dont really understand the importance of it. I think he will want to block for Lynch and if the media and coaches are on him about it he will block. Basically, my rationale is Hardy has the size, speed and has been productive in college for more than 1 season and is the best red zone threat of the top WR’s. I feel with proper coaching he will use his size and speed to become extremely productive. His body size and speed is similiar to TO or even a David Boston back in the day (with no worry of him getting fat).

by Berg79 on Apr 23, 2008 10:52 AM EDT reply actions