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A Final Strategy Run Through, Bills Style

Quick programming note: tomorrow's 2008 NFL Draft will be covered LIVE by Buffalo Rumblings.  We will have open threads between Buffalo Bills picks, news and pick announcements as they come in, and plenty of opportunities to chat as the draft unfolds.  Nowhere else will you find a smoother, easier place to discuss the Bills' angle in the draft.  If you're interested in getting in on the action (I know there are a lot of you who have not yet made the switch to the new platform!), click here to set up your new account, claim your old account, and get posting.  E-mail me if you have any trouble.  Go Bills!

With the 2008 NFL Draft just around the corner, I thought it would be a good time to get one last post in here about exactly how I believe that the Buffalo Bills should approach tomorrow's selection process.  Please keep in mind that this is simply my opinion.  This opinion was formulated on very little insider knowledge (I am privy to some, but it does not show up here).  Feel free to completely blow this off if you're not into this sort of thing, or feel free to change my mind.  I just can't hold it in any longer.  I have to say my final piece before tomorrow's festivities.  So without further ado, here's how Buffalo should approach tomorrow's draft:

Plan A: Trade Down
The Bills are reportedly entertaining offers to trade down in the draft - the Kansas City Chiefs are mentioned most often as a potential partner - and this is absolutely the best move for the Bills.  No, it will not allow them to get the top guy on their board in all likelihood.  But it will allow them to get the player they most need - and that's whichever receiver they have rated highest - at a better value with an extra pick.  Wide receiver is Buffalo's most desperate need to fill, and if they can swing a trade down to get better value, it would be the best move for the team by leaps and bounds.

Plan B: Grab Value at 11, then Pick Up the Phone
If the Bills can't swing a trade down in the first round, and are forced to choose at 11, that pick stands little chance of being a wide receiver.  The Bills are a value-first drafting team, and they'll only reach slightly for a need if the value is close.  That's not the case with receiver and the eleventh pick.  Whether they choose a cornerback, defensive lineman, linebacker or offensive lineman here, take the top guy on the board.  I've pimped WR here for a long time, but ultimately, you get better by picking the best players.  The logic of Buffalo Rumblings' readers has, at long last, swayed me.

If they choose at this pick, however, and the choice is not a wide receiver, the team needs to begin working the phone lines to move back up, if at all possible.  The team has some ammo to do this, but it may leave the team pick-less until the fourth round.  It may be worth it if they get the top guy on their board and the top wide receiver on their board.

Plan C: Stay Put in Rounds 1 and 2, then Pick Up the Phone
This is not my favorite strategy, but it could work if the right players are available.  This plan is the same in round one - get your guy.  Round two presents plenty of possibilities; the most likely event is that the team went defense in round one, so the team should at that point go offense in round two.  There is a strong chance that the team will have its pick of the litter at the tight end position.  There is also a solid chance that a starting-caliber receiver is available.

If the Bills play their cards right - and it's a big "if" - the team could take their favorite tight end at their default second-round pick, then package a 3 and their first 4 to move back into the second for a wide receiver.  This would give the Bills the top guy on their board, the top tight end on their board, and a starting-caliber wideout.  TE and WR can be flip-flopped in this scenario as well.  This is the biggest gamble the team could make tomorrow, but again - if the right players are available, it could give the team tremendous help offensively and defensively.

Plan D: Let's Avoid Plan D
Plan D, conceivably, is that the Bills stay put in rounds one through three and miss out on getting maximum value, as they have the potential to do in plans A through C.  The team can get good players staying where they are, but they could get far greater value otherwise.

So that's that.  No prospect name-dropping, no picking favorites, no making a case for specific players.  Pure strategy.  If the Bills want to put together the best value possible tomorrow, they'll be trading.  I look forward to seeing many of you back here tomorrow for our live coverage!

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Plan 9 From Outer Space

I think Plan A works the best – IF there’s a team to trade with. Getting an extra 3rd would make it easier to trade back into the first round to get somebody else they like at a better value as well.

The question is – if the best player available is a linebacker, will the Bills pull the trigger?
Angelo Crowell will be a free agent – is he somebody the Bills value enough to have to possibly overpay next year? Will Mitchell make a smooth transition to the Bills D? Will it turn into the Great DE debate – will fans in 2 years be saying:”We can’t draft a linebacker this year – we have so much tied up into that position already! We’re getting no production but maybe it’ll turn around…”

I’m just saying, a position of strength this year heading into the draft might not be one next year. So if they do go for a linebacker or a safety early, it might not be such a bad thing. It’s the conundrum of getting the best player available over filling a need.

by Benaconda on Apr 25, 2008 7:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think they definitely could surprise by taking a position not heavily considered by the public. I don’t think that safety is one of them, because there aren’t any elite safety prospects this year. Linebacker is another story altogether. There are some solid players that could represent good value at 11, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see one taken there.

My gut feeling is that BPA will be a cornerback or a defensive lineman, whether it’s a tackle or an end. Linebacker would probably fall in after those three positions.

by Brian Galliford on Apr 25, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pulling for Plan A

It’s the only plan that allows the Bills to address the biggest need (WR) in the first, the third biggest need (TE) in the second and the second need© in the 3rd or maybe 4th.

by Ron From NM on Apr 25, 2008 8:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Concurred. I like how if you put “C” in parentheses, denoting center, you end up with a copyright symbol. Nice.

I don’t think they’ll wait as long as you would on a cornerback, though.

by Brian Galliford on Apr 25, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

CB

I wouldn’t mind if the Bills pick a CB in the 3rd so long as they get their top rated center in the 4th. CB is a need, but I’d definitely put it behind WR, C and TE.

by Ron From NM on Apr 25, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was just thinking if they decide to trade back into the first round or move up into the second to get somebody they rated very highly even though it’s not a position they need. Like a Dan Connor (as an example, not a statement of fact). If they have him ranked high because they feel he’ll do well in their system and they give him a first round grade…and then he’s floating around in the second…

Almost like them drafting Trent Edwards – it was like “WHY?” (considering the position and other needs they had) but the way the season played out it’s now “THANK GOODNESS!”. (no disrespect to JP Losman fans)

Or drafting Dwayne Wright – they just drafted a running back in the first round! They had bigger needs they could have taken care of. That one hasn’t worked out yet – but it’s still early.

by Benaconda on Apr 25, 2008 8:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wright

I was puzzled at that one too. I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt though, and hope he turns into something good this year.

If I were Dwayne Wright this off season, I would do nothing but practice blocking and tackling…

by krytime on Apr 25, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Wright Stuff

I think Wright was drafted because they envision him turning into some Frank Gore type – also they were planning on the A-Train not being around for much longer and got his replacement.

If Wright wanted to be one of the great running backs, he should impregnate a lot of women this summer.

by Benaconda on Apr 25, 2008 8:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's no joke

I really feel like when my daughter was born, I shaved about .55 off my forty time. Of course I would have to have a litter of 20 or so before I got down in the 4.5 range.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Apr 25, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Wright Effect

He got Shaud Williams off of the roster. What more could you want?

by Ron From NM on Apr 25, 2008 8:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Wright Effect

Yes, but so did Freddy Jackson. I am looking for Wright to have a better year myself. His best chance is to make a mark on STs, and provide a change of pace RB to the Lynch/Jackson duo (Is it to presumptious to call them a duo?)

They always say the most improvement a player has in his career is between the 1st and 2nd years. I’m hoping Wright turns out to be a football player…

by krytime on Apr 25, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duo

I wouldn’t call them that. That could infer an almost equal share of playing time/production. I would call them starter and occasional reliever. ML should get 80% of the workload this year, at least. He shouldn’t be taken out on any 3rd downs, and Schonert better be devising ways to get him the ball in the pass game every minute of the day.

~K

by Kurupt on Apr 25, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Duo

I think you’re dead on with Lynch being in on every 3rd down this year. Everyone applauds the way he gets yards after the first contact, and so do I. What impressed me down the stretch, at least in my eyes (Ron from NM correct me if I’m wrong), was his ability to pass block, and pick up the blitz.

I think it’ll be really interesting to see how Schonert gives time to all three backs…

by krytime on Apr 25, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lynch and blocking

I can remember one drive off the top of my head that Lynch killed by missing a block. Other than that he was solid as a the last line of defense…against the defense. His pass blocking needs improvement but it was good enough to displace Thomas from that niche, and from there to the unemployment line.

by Ron From NM on Apr 25, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks..

That’s what I thought, but I wasn’t sure. Thurman was/is so underrated when it came to picking up the blitz; may have been the best ever, aside from Payton.

by krytime on Apr 25, 2008 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Emmitt Smith

He may not be able to formulate grammatically correct sentences but he was a stud when it came to picking up the blitz. I seem to recall he sent Cornelius Bennett end over end during one of the Super Bowls…

by Ron From NM on Apr 25, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Emmitt

He was another great one, with regard to what we’re talking about. Both of these RBs provided their teams with some flexibility. In Buffalo’s case, we got to see 3 WR sets, because they had so much confidence in Thurman’s blocking ability – no need for a FB/blocking TE/HB.

by krytime on Apr 26, 2008 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duos aren't made up of equals

Batman had his Robin, until Robin wasn’t profitable and then Robin was dumped like Mike Williams. I’d call Lynch and Jackson a duo, with Lynch definitely the more dominant of the two. Hopefully he doesn’t start wearing an outlandish utility belt…

by Ron From NM on Apr 25, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jackson.

I think he’s a freebie after this season. Let me ask – do you (or anyone) think it might be a smart idea to extend him now, or wait until he really proves himself, and the price rises significantly? For that matter, the price could drop as well..

by krytime on Apr 25, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Extending Jackson

If Jackson is smart enough to sign a 4 year deal for, say, $2 millionish total (possibly all of it guaranteed) then I could see Buffalo doing it. If, on the other hand, Jackson has delusions of grandeur then I can see Buffalo helping him clean out his locker at the end of the season. When and if he hits the open market I’m sure some teams will offer him a little over the veteran minimum to be a backup but likely only with a one year deal.

by Ron From NM on Apr 25, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fred

He’ll be an Exclusive Rights Free Agent next offseason. He won’t be going anywhere for at least two more seasons.

~K

by Kurupt on Apr 25, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Funny Analogy

I like that one! Robin, he was a little smaller than Mike Williams, but would have been just as effective.

by south123 on Apr 25, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Drafting Wright

I think they drafted Wright because they didn’t know or trust what they had in Jackson. They were probably as suprized as the rest of us at his production and effectiveness.

by Blackthorn on Apr 26, 2008 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also pulling for Plan A

I really think the Bills are sitting in a perfect spot to trade back and pick up some more picks which they can turn around to move back up in the second if need be.

by RabidBuffalo on Apr 26, 2008 10:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Plan A-1

Another thing to consider – how about a plan A-1? The Bills trade down with the Chiefs to #17, as in plan A, for a 3rd and 4th, let’s say… but then trade down again with, oh, Dallas (assuming Mendenhall or Jones are still on the board) to #22, adding in that spare 4th round to get another 2nd round pick.

This lets the Bills take, say, the top TE in the first, Jordy Nelson in the 2nd, and still have an impressive 2nd, two thirds, and two fourths for CB-C-DE-WR-FB.

by Krenn on Apr 26, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Very tough to pull off. Not out of the question by any means, but unlikely. The thought process, however, is excellent. There are about 50 excellent players in this draft, and right now we’re in line to get two of them. If we can increase that to 3 or 4, it’d be a great day for us.

by Brian Galliford on Apr 26, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Buffalo Bills Draft Day

The Buffalo Bills are on the clock…

1.)Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.
1.)James Hardy, WR, Indiana(Get late first round pick for 2nd round and 4th rounder, hell maybe throw Losman in there too)
2.)(trade up into late 1st round with a 4th round pick to chose James Hardy)
3.)Kellen Davis, TE, Michigan
4.)Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
4.)(trade with the 2nd round pick to move into the late 1st and chose James Hardy)
5.)Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
6.)Trevor Scott, DE, Buffalo
7.)Mike Fladell, OG, Rutgers
7.)Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
7.)Kirk Barton, OT, Ohio State

Trade:2nd round, 4th round pick for late first round pick.

This is all probably unlikely but it’s what i’d like to see the Bills do.

by dbarnick33 on Apr 26, 2008 1:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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