What I Know and What I Think

[editor's note, by Brian Galliford] Geronimo, resident Buffalo Rumblings insider and one of our more tenured posters, kindly offers us his latest opinions and insight as we draw closer to Draft Day. Take it away, G. End Note

Well, there are about two-plus weeks before the NFL Draft and like everybody I am anxious/curious to see how the whole thing turns out. I have not posted here for quite a while and thought it may be useful to prattle on with a few thoughts as to what may be going on at One Bills Drive. Much of this is informed opinion as always - some my own perception.

First, you should all know that there are really only two opinions that will matter on Draft Day. Opinions will have been sought and offered by all of the Bills' scouts, position coaches, and Perry Fewell and Turk Schonert - and they will all have been listened to carefully. But at the end of the day Tom Modrak and Dick Jauron will make every single call. It may surprise you that this is no different than in the past two drafts when Marv Levy was here. Marv had his own opinions, he clearly expressed them and they were valued - but he was NOT doing the picking. He was highly deferential to both Modrak and DJ, and at the end of the day, he treated them much as he would have liked to be treated as a coach when Bill Polian and John Butler were GM. Besides, he and DJ were so philosophically in tune it virtually made no difference.

Modrak and DJ have a superb working relationship. There is a great deal of trust and respect there. MOST importantly, Modrak knows exactly what "type" of player DJ wants - and I am NOT just talking about the character criteria. Modrak knows what skill sets the coaches value at the positional level and will look for guys who may be better here than they would be elsewhere and rank them accordingly. DJ has a lot of confidence in him and it is a good team. Two years' history would tell you that they have a good model for success figured out. If they see a "guy" they like and who really believe in they will go for him. They started calling around looking to move up to get Paul Posluszny exactly one second after they picked Marshawn Lynch last year.

In addition, the Bills could not care less what you think or I think and that goes double for Kiper, Mayock et al. I can quite positively assure you that if Michael Huff had fallen to them in 2006, they still would have taken Donte Whitner. Their only decision at that point was between Donte and Haloti Ngata. Time will tell but I am happy with how that has turned out. You will all recall how they were castigated by the experts in that draft. Imagine the furor if they had passed on Huff, who is now being shopped by the Raiders.

Another thing - if they think the Board is not going their way, they may reach just a tad for need. The trade up to get John McCargo in 2006 is a good case in point. It was likewise controversial. At that point, OBD desperately needed a DT. Now not only do they have a "Master Board" with all players available, they have a positional Board for every position. They saw that McCargo, who they had as a low first/top second guy, was at least two rounds better ranked than the next DT. Were they right? Well, it took an amazing 42 more picks before the next DT (Claude Wroten) was selected, so they had that nailed. Was McCargo worth it? Throw out the injured first year, but we saw glimpses last year of how quick and disruptive he can be. With Marcus Stroud here I expect to see really, really nice things from him this year.

The front office loves FOOTBALL players. I can tell you that their draft grades are based 90% on college production. They do not put much weight at all in the combine or pro days. It is all about what you see on tape. The game is played in pads and that is what they value.

What does all of this mean in terms of the Draft? I will post closer to the draft with some thoughts, but would it surprise you to know that tough guys like CB Brandon Flowers and TE John Carlson may have a higher spot at OBD than elsewhere?

I am really pumped about this year's draft, and highly confident in the team running it.