Vegas and the Bills

by Ron From NM on May 11, 2008 10:03 PM EDT

I've got a Bodog account and tend to ignore it when the NFL isn't in season. I checked back into the site today (mainly to see if my tiny account had been looted ) and looked up what Vegas thinks of the Bills.

Buffalo is 8 to 1 to win the division. Big spender that I am I put a buck on them.

The Bills are 40 to 1 to win the AFC and 65 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I wasn't sporting enough to even throw a buck at either of those lines.

Hardy is 22 to 1 to be offensive rookie of the year and McKelvin is 24 to 1 to be the defensive rookies of the year. I put a couple of bucks on each of them, never mind that I had hoped Buffalo would go a different way with the draft.

The point of this is not to promote offshore gambling, which is currently legal. The Bills are seen as something less than legitimate contenders by people who get paid very, very well to ferret out future winners from losers. With the Patriots in the division Vegas is certain that the Bills will have to be a wild card team in order to see the post season from someone other than their living rooms. The oddsmakers, however, give teams like Denver and Jacksonville better odds of winning their divisions...thus making it seem that Vegas doesn't see Buffalo playing in January.

I'm guessing that part of the long odds handed out to Hardy and McKelvin have to do with their positions. Running backs likely have the inside track on offensive ROY and CBs are likely sucking hind tit when it comes to defensive ROY. Still, I don't exactly dislike my odds with Hardy. He should be able to make enough of an impact to merit some ROY rumblings--likely not Adrian Peterson type rumblings but can you really say that Lynch didn't generate some rumblings of his own largely because of Buffalo's aenemic rushing attack the years before Lynch's arrival?

This FanPost created by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings.

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Comments

Vegas

The folks in Vegas who get paid to make odds are masters at reading the public, not predicting the future. This Bills team is better than those odds. 40:1 for the AFC looks like a decent longshot bet to me. I think I’ll partake.

Never forget 56-10. Revenge.

by SuperFan82 on May 11, 2008 10:34 PM EDT 0 recs

Gambling "degenerates"...are my best friends..

Setting lines is easy – just watch where the money is going. I definitely don’t think they’re an indicator of a team’s prowess.

Ron – I think I’m gonna do the same thing. I’ve seen the Bills at 10-1 and higher to win the division. I also like the mid-range/longshots like Hardy and McKelvin.

by krytime on May 11, 2008 10:48 PM EDT 0 recs

How do you guys fund those accounts?

Don’t most banks block you from funding one of the offshore gambling accounts?

by Kurupt on May 11, 2008 11:27 PM EDT 0 recs

A "How-To"

If you’re so inclined, it’s pretty easy to set up a Bodog account. (I can’t speak for any other sites.) I got a prepaid $100 credit card down at Walgreens (for $106) and used it instead of my personal credit card…largely because I don’t trust offshore gambling establishments. Bodog added $110 to my tiny stake for opening an account and I played with it all of last season.

I tend to place rather small bets and personally like to bet on promising dogs…kind of like Buffalo vs the Ravens. I also tend to place small bets on individual players. Josh Reed, for example, is a mortal lock to come in ‘under’ the # of receptions Vegas thinks he’ll have per game whereas Lynch was pretty much right on the rushing number (except the Bengals game) Vegas predicted.

I was down to around $25 by the end of the season (there’s a reason they’re dogs) but found the little bets to be an entertaining addition to the games. I made my best bet of the year, by the way, on the Super Bowl. I did a parlay (everything you bet has to happen) that the Giants would win and that the combined score would be less than (something like) 45. My $5 turned into nearly $65 putting me back close to my original $100. And, yes, I did kick myself for not dumping the entire $25 on that parlay.

I’m not particularly worried about getting money out of the account but I know that it involves some paperwork. Also, Bodog (don’t know about the others) wires the money to an account…which means the feds will know about it so you will be paying taxes on anything you draw out of your account—including your original deposit.

by Ron From NM on May 12, 2008 8:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Ooops

Bodog added $10 to my $100 account, not $110. $110 is obviously what I had once they added the $10.

by Ron From NM on May 12, 2008 8:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

I love betting on my Bills

I use Sportsbook, and I think the bookies have the Bills rated strongly overall. So far you can only bet on the Bills v. Seattle and the Bills v. Browns and Sportsbook has them favored to win both of those match-ups (by 2 and 2.5 points, respectively).

by thejimbo on May 12, 2008 3:19 AM EDT 0 recs

Rankings

Just read ESPN which put out power rankings. Big surprise New England is number 1, Colts number 2, Chargers number 3, Jags number 5???? Pittsburg, Cleveland, and then the Titans. Buffalo comes in at number 19. I don’t care about the number but Cleveland and Tennessee ahead of us? I think we have a legitamate shot against Jacksonville, Pittsburg, Cleveland and Tennessee. 8 to 1 odds on winning the division. Sorry but we are fighting for a wildcard this year. I’d put that at more of like 20 to 1

by SBbe4idie on May 12, 2008 7:56 AM EDT 0 recs

Don't forget

Cleveland just missed the playoffs last year in a season were one of their wins was a shut-out of our Bills. They made big improvements on their defense in the off season. I can see Cleveland ahead of us. The Titans are overrated mainly due to their QB. VY is all hype and little production.
8-1 odds in the same division as the Pats is optimistic. I don’t see them going 16-0 again, but I don’t see them losing enough for the Bills to have a shot at the title either.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on May 12, 2008 8:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

Flaming Thumbtacks

They may be overrated but they were still playing last season while the Bills were sitting at home. They’ve got a great head coach who makes the most of the talent he has on hand. I can only think of one or two seasons that the Oilers/Thumbtacks haven’t been at least a respectable team over the past decade.

by Ron From NM on May 12, 2008 8:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

very true

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on May 12, 2008 8:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

Online Gambling

If you are interested in Gambling online I would not recommend Bodog. There are many better sites to use. The Greek and matchbook are both well respected books (there are others). Bodog has had a history of not paying their clients or closing accounts when you start winning, or just taking forever to pay out.

by Berg79 on May 12, 2008 10:06 AM EDT 0 recs

Bodog

I can’t speak to getting money out of my Bodog account as I haven’t tried. I certainly can’t vouch for any offshore gambling site or say one is better than another. Frankly, I’m not too concerned about getting my pittance out of Bodog so it’s not an issue for me. Those who are serious gamblers, however, might have a very different take…

by Ron From NM on May 12, 2008 8:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cleveland

I think Cleveland and the Bills are even this year. Cleveland beat the Bills in one of the sloppiest games of the season besides that spectacle in Pittsburgh. Jamal Lewis the deciding factor in that game running against a poor run d. Since we shored that up I think we have a chance. Here is the difference Cleveland and Buffalo meet this season which can have huge implications. Unfortunately for the Browns it is a Monday Night game in Buffalo. Whatever edge the Browns may have go out the window for that game. We have a young team and they feed of excitement and thats exactly what will happen come Monday Night. Cleveland may be better, but on that night, I don’t see it happening. Barring any injuries…the Bills have a fighting chance for once.

by SBbe4idie on May 13, 2008 6:07 AM EDT 0 recs

Bills/Browns

Last years game came down to the final drive, and that is a testament to the players in Buffalo. The game called by OC Fairchild was too predictable for the Browns D to not do well. How many times did we run on 1st? Over and over, with no creativity, his plays ended in Lynch getting stuffed by a defense that knew where he was going. This year Turk has a chance to use the playbook to keep the d honest.

by thurman on May 13, 2008 6:27 PM EDT 0 recs