Power Rankings and Playoff Hopes
by Ron From NM
on May 17, 2008 9:54 PM EDT
ESPN has their post draft power rankings up. It's here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking?season=2008&week=0
They have Buffalo at #19, behind 7 AFC teams and 12 NFC teams. Evidently, ESPN no longer believes that the NFC is the weaker of the two conferences. To focus on what matters (i.e. Buffalo playing in January) let's take a look at the 7 AFC teams ranked ahead of Buffalo.
Patriots: Look for them to go no worse than 5-1 in the AFC East games. The won't go any worse than 4-1 in their other home games (Broncos, Chiefs, Steelers, Rams, Cards). Even if they're bitten by the Super Bowl Loser Curse I can't see them going any worse than 3-2 in their non-division away games (Chargers, Raiders, Colts, 49ers and Seahawks). They should finish somewhere between 12-4 and 16-0. They're a mortal lock to win the AFC East (unless a meteor slams into their practice facility) and occupy one of the 6 playoff spots.
Colts: They play in perhaps the toughest division in football, and certainly the toughest in the AFC. Let's call it 3-3 in their division games. They should go no worse than 4-1 in their other home games (Ravens, Bengals, Pats, Bears, Lions) and no worse than 3-2 in their non-division away games (Browns, Steelers, Chargers, Vikings, Packers). That's 10-6 but more likely 11-5 or 12-4. Even if they don't hold the division title, they're pretty much a shoo in for one of the two Wild Card spots.
Chargers: The AFC West is almost as much of a mess as the AFC East and the Chargers are clearly the best team in the division. They should be at least 4-2 in their division games. They've got some tough home games (Pats, Jets, Colts, Falcons, Panthers) but should win at least 3 of them. Their road games (Bills, Dolphins, Steelers, Saints, Bucs) should be a bit easier and they should win at least 3 of those as well. 10-6 should be more than enough to win the AFC West and take the third playoff spot.
Jaguars: The Jags may be able to grind down the Colts this season and win the division. I'm betting they go 4-2 in their division games. Their other home games (Browns, Steelers, Bills, Packers, Vikings) look tough on paper but the Jags beat down the Steelers twice last season (not to mention smacking around the Bills) so they should win at least 3 of those games. Their slate of non-division away games (Ravens, Bengals, Broncos, Lions Bears) seems tailor made for a 5-0 sweep. With 12 wins as the basement they'll take a Wild Card slot if they don't win the division.
Steelers: They should storm through their division, winning no less than 5 of those games. They've got a brutal home slate (Texans, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants) but should still win 3 of those games....though don't ask me which. Their non-division road games (Jags, Titans, Eagles, Redskins, Patriots) are just as bad. Even so, I can see them winning at least 2 of those. That puts them at 10-6. Not only that, with everyone else in the division being smacked around by most of the same teams, even if they go 9-7 or 8-8 they would probably still win the division.
Browns: I'm not as high on the Browns as some people seem to be. My guess is that they do no better than 3-3 in the division this season. Their non-division home games (Texans, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Giants) might make their fans reconsider buying season tickets this year. My prediction for that series of games is 1-4. Their non-division road games (Jags, Titans, Bills, Eagles, Redskins) may have the fans calling for Romeo's head. Those 5 games could all turn ugly, though I don't see them dropping all 5. 1-4 seems far more likely. 5-11 (or even 8-8 if things go really well) won't get them to the post season. It's nice to see some other team slapped with a brutal schedule...
Titans: They're kind of a mystery. One week Vince Young lights up the scoreboard and the next the entire team seems like they're in a funk. They do play their division foes tough (Ask the Jags about the almost 300 yards in rushing the Titans hung on them.) so they'll win at least 3 of those games. Their other home games (Browns, Steelers, Jets, Packers, Vikings) aren't backbreakers and they should win at least 2 of them. Their non-division away games (Bengals, Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, Lions) must have Jeff Fischer quite literally salivating. They should run the table and go 5-0, putting the Flaming Thumbtacks at 10-6.
Bills: I'm already on record predicting a 9-7 finish for the Bills.
If my prognostications are more like those of Nostrodamus than those nuts who predict the end of the world in 3 weeks the playoff picture should be:
Division winners: Pats, Colts (chance Jags could get it), Steelers, Chargers
Wild Card: Jags (or Colts if Jags win division), Thumb Tacks.
I guess we should hope for that meteor, or at least for most of the Pats' players to eat some tainted shellfish and be out for several weeks.... Other than that, it seems unlikely that Buffalo will compile enough wins to qualify for a Wild Card slot--particularly if Buffalo loses to Jacksonville.
Oh, and I hate to admit it, but the Jets could be a Wild Card threat themselves. They've got a soft schedule and a bunch of free agents. If they pan out the Jets could make some noise. I, of course, am hoping the only noise they generate is bickering and backstabbing in the locker room about who got what fat contract.
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Hard to say about this year
The AFC South and North are both very very balanced this season. The #1-4 teams in those divisions are all eqaully matched up and will provide no cake walks for one another. Division winners are the only ones that come out this.
The Count- 2 teams to playoffs automatically. I think ONE of the the Wildcards comes out of these divisions automatically as well.
The AFC West is as bad a joke as the NFC West is, you have one good franchise that knows what the hell it is doing, and 3 that couldn’t find their own rear ends with a map, gps, road signs and Sacajawea helping too.
The Count- I see only the Chargers coming out with a playoff spot.
AFC East, this is the tricky one, as much as I love our Bills and loathe the Pats, I see them taking the Division easily, though I think we’ll win one game from them this year. The Dolphins will still be bad, but not a 1-15 doormat, and I think we’ll win our games against them, but its gonna be close. The Jets are a really weird team, they will either be really really good, or really bad again due to their team chemistry, or lack thereof. The issue is, we have a very tough slate of games this year ourselves.
The Count- One auto bid to the Pats, meaning that 5 of the bids to Jan are shot. I think that the Bills, if we come together as a team, and ML, Trent and Hardy all produce way over their heads, and the Jets tank, we can take the last Wildcard. BUT, I will be pragmatic about this, and I would say that their is a disctinct possibility that it could go to one of the North or South teams rather than us. I think 9-7 will be our fates this season with us vying for a spot till the last 2-3 weeks of the season and not closing the deal.
Fear the mighty helmet wearing gopher, he is coming for your soul....
by WABillsfan on May 18, 2008 1:06 AM EDT 0 recs
AFC North balanced???
Cincy is a disaster. I watched a lot of their games last year because I got stuck with them in the office season pool. Their defense is simply wretched. Rivers will help but he can’t play all 3 LB positions simultaneously. Henry, who really opened up their offense, is gone and now Johnson is thowing a hissy fit.
The Ravens are pinning their hopes on their second choice rookie QB. They’ve got offensive line problems and are thin at WR. They’re not going anywhere this season, even though they do have a good defense.
I’m fairly well convinced that the Browns were a fluke last season. Even if they weren’t they simply face a brutal schedule. They’ll be doing very well to simply go 8-8.
The Steelers are the class of the division. They pretty much own all of the other 3 teams.
If you want balance (good balance, not just equally bad a la the NFC West), the AFC South and NFC East are the divisions to look at.
by Ron From NM on
May 18, 2008 12:26 PM EDT
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Playoffs prediction
1. Chargers (12-4)
2. Jaguars (11-5)
3. Patriots* (11-5)*
4. Browns (10-6)
5. Colts (10-6)
6. Texans (9-7)
—-—-—-
Steelers (9-7)
Bills (7-9)
Broncos (7-9)
Titans (7-9)
...everyone else: awful.
...Bonus predictions: New York Jets (3-13): First pick in the 2009 Draft.
Super Bowl XLIII: Seahawks-27, Chargers-19
Never forget 56-10. Revenge.
by SuperFan82 on May 18, 2008 7:55 AM EDT 0 recs
Yeesh!
I can see that the sediment on here is to not be too optimistic about the Bills record next year, but to think that the Texans will beat out the Bills for a playoff spot is a bit of a reach.
Also, who are the ‘Thumb Tacks”?
Anyway, if we take the Browns here on Monday Night, look for that to be a tie-breaker for a playoff spot.
And if the Bills can beat New England once, we will be in the playoffs, just because I feel that will show we have “arrived”
Other than that, until I see some preseason action, I can never tell with a sound mind what wil happen
The Bills can win every game
by killascript on May 18, 2008 9:54 AM EDT 0 recs
The “Thumb Tacks” are the Titans.
These predictions are a crapshoot at this point. We don’t know how anyone has improved/gotten worse; we can only guess how guys like James Hardy, Marcus Stroud, Shaun Rogers/Corey Williams (Cleveland), etc. etc. will impact their new teams.
by Brian Galliford on
May 18, 2008 10:12 AM EDT
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Predictions
True, they are something of a gamble at this point. However, it is pretty clear that the AFC North teams will face a much tougher slate of non-division games than the AFC South teams. The AFC North teams have to play the best division in the AFC (AFC South) as well as the best division in the NFC (NFC North).
by Ron From NM on
May 18, 2008 12:20 PM EDT
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North?
Not sure if you meant NFC East, but the NFC North is anything but the best division in the NFC. Terrible teams, with maybe the Vikings or Packers taking the division and only playoff spot. Packers could be very good, but if Rodgers struggles the team will struggle.
Similarly, the Bills fortunes are completely dependent on Edwards’ play. We could end up anywhere between 10-6 and 6-10. I’ll wait to narrow that down.
by jmorris0823 on
May 21, 2008 2:25 AM EDT
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Technically, they're the Flaming Thumb Tacks
Tennessee could have picked a really cool name like Riflemen but, no, not in a PC league. Instead they exhumed the Jets old name and topped that off with perhaps the stupidest logo in the NFL.
As for the Texans, don’t look now but they’re putting together a terrific defense. The team routinely causes headaches for the Jags and Colts. If they can get their offense humming they can challenge for a playoff spot. The biggest issue for them is that they’re in such a tough division.
by Ron From NM on
May 18, 2008 12:16 PM EDT
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Houston
they have a pretty easy nonconference home schedule. They play:
Baltimore
Miami
Detroit
Cincinatti
Chicago
It’s tough not to love their young core on defense of Demeco Ryans, Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye and Dunta Robinson.
I thought they had a pretty bad offseason though. No helpful signings (Chris Brown, Chaun Thompson, Jacques Reeves, traded for Chris Myers). I liked their draft more than most seem to, but I don’t think they got any immediate impact. Duane Brown could play right away, but won’t be an improvement over what they already had in his rookie season. Molden is raw, so is Okam. Abidi doesn’t have the size or the speed to ever be a true impact player and Steve Slaton is just a bad player. I won’t be surprised if he doesn’t make the team.
The question for Houston is going to be the health of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Without Johnson their offense is pretty average. They could use one of their RBs to emerge as a ligimate starter. A random rotation of Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Darius Walker and Chris Taylor isn’t going to work.
by kaisertown on
May 18, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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Reach?
Houston had a better record than the Bills last season so it’s sort of strange to say that it’s a reach to rank them higher than Buffalo. In fact, I’m probably guilty of being an optimistic homer about the Bills in predicting them to be far better than the Jets and Dolphins given our roster and coaching staff. I guess that’s what May is for- optimism around the league. I’m very optimistic that Dick Jauron can lead this team to another successful 7-9 season in 2008 and for many years to come. Go Bills.
Never forget 56-10. Revenge.
by SuperFan82 on
May 18, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
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I might be delusional
Trust me when I tell you I have not been high on the bills in a long time. Since the infamous Bledsoe season where Willie (who am I) Parker decided to make his coming out party in Week 17. However, I am only setting myself up for a letdown by predicting an 12-4/11-5 season and WC birth. So therefore, I think the playoffs are well within reach.
First, I believe both the AFC North due to having to face the NFC East & AFC South will only get 1 playoff team. I believe the AFC West because they only have 1 good team in the division will get 1 team in. Therefore, the 2 WC will come from Jax/Indy/Tenn/Houston/Buff & maybe NYJ…I suppose Denver has a slim shot too, but I have little faith in them with their current WR’s after Marshall’s inj.
Some thing I believe.
#1. Indy will have a down year. Harrisson will have distractions, and the D will not be healthy going into the year.
#2. Buffalo will beat SD in Buffalo. SD will be coming off of a Sunday night game against NE. They will have to pack and prepare for 2 away games w/o returning home b/c they then travel to Europe after the Bills game. This is the definition of a trap game. Bills win.
#3. Bills will go 6-2 or 7-1 v. AFC West/ NFC West. I think they will slip at Denver and maybe at Zona or St. L.
#4. Bills should go 7-1 at home with only loss being to the Pats (and that is not a guarantee loss either). SD/Clev/Seattle the bills toughest 3 opponents besides the Pats/Jags all at home in great sit. SD as described above; Clev on Monday night; Seattle opening Day.
#5. The Patriots will beat the Bills in WEek 17 for the division title and first round bye.
#6. We will lose fairly badly in the Playoffs as the #5 seed after the Pats took some life out of us…unless we get the AFC Central winner.
#7. If I had a gun to my head and was forced to predict our 5 losses come against: Jax; Zona; Denver; NE; NE
by Berg79 on May 19, 2008 12:07 PM EDT 0 recs
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