"Guesstimating" Lee Evans' Contract Demands

by Brian Galliford on May 21, 2008 7:30 AM EDT in Opinion

Bills have made an initial offer to Evans (Photo Source)

After a season in which his statistical production dropped by a significant margin, Bills WR Lee Evans may still be experiencing a rather large pay raise over the next few months. Evans on Monday confirmed that he has received a contract offer from the Bills, indicating that both sides are interested in preserving a relationship entering its fifth season.

The big question, at this point, is this: exactly how much is Evans worth? Evans is not an elite NFL receiver - as evidenced by his meager 55 receptions in 16 healthy games last season - yet he'll likely ask to be paid like one. Blessed with excellent talent, the Bills may be taking a bit of a risk throwing large dollar amounts at a player who has had productive seasons, but probably isn't worth the money he'll ask for.

What exactly will he ask for? As is the trend in the NFL, Evans' negotiating camp will likely base their salary demands (not unreasonably) off of the five major free agent deals signed by wide receivers this past March. The market was set at that point, and here's how those five players made out:

Jerry Porter (JAX): Porter is the bare minimum deal at this point, and if the Bills made the initial offer in the Evans negotiations, it was probably in the ballpark of the 6 year, $30 million deal (with $10 million guaranteed) that Porter signed with Jacksonville in March. Porter was signed to be the Jaguars' #1 receiver in a similar market size, and $5 million per year with $10 million guaranteed is a pretty modest fee to pay for that service. Expect Evans' deal to be larger; this deal is worth noting, however, because again, it sets the base line.

Randy Moss (NE): After being courted heavily by the Eagles, Moss re-signed in New England for a pretty modest contract: 3 years, $27 million, $15 million guaranteed. Evans won't be signing a deal this short - the Bills certainly wouldn't allow that - but the $15 million guaranteed is important to note for comparison purposes to the next two deals.

Bernard Berrian (MIN): This deal is the one most commonly associated to the Evans talks, as Evans and Berrian are very similar players (though Evans is the clear superior, at least talent and consistency-wise). Berrian inked a 6-year, $43.4 million deal with $16 million guaranteed in Minnesota this past March. Expect Evans to eventually on similar numbers across the board, but don't expect him to overlook the next two deals, either. If the Bills are starting off with Porter offers, Evans will talk them up with the Javon Walker and Larry Fitzgerald deals.

Javon Walker (OAK): Proving that he's no longer mentally fit to run an NFL franchise, Raiders owner Al Davis handed the very fragile Walker a 6-year, $55 million deal with $16 million guaranteed (and which will pay Walker $27 million in salaries over the first three years of the deal). Wow. Evans won't get a salary that high, but the guaranteed money is similar to the Berrian and Moss deals, and the front-loaded deal is something you can expect to see with Evans' deal as well.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): Like Moss, Fitzgerald signed a shorter deal (4 years), but he ultimately got the best payout - $40 million, with 75% of that ($30 million) guaranteed. That's ludicrous pay. The Evans camp will likely have that $30 million figure in mind when making initial demands in the guaranteed department; they won't get it from Buffalo, but the demand will be there nonetheless.

So what does this all mean? The market is set. Those five deals averaged $8 million per year in salary and a shade under $4 million per year in guarantees (thanks, Arizona). That's the market based on this year's deals. What will the Bills do? Well, they've shown a tendency to offer a bit more guaranteed if it means saving a bit on salary - they're essentially taking the hit early and mortgaging dollars now for future production. They used this tactic in signing Derrick Dockery last off-season, and it was also present in the re-structure of Marcus Stroud's contract when he was traded in March.

Using the $16 million guaranteed figure prevalent in three of the deals (Berrian, Walker, Moss), expect the Bills to offer a bit more - say, $19 million guaranteed over a six-year deal - if it means less annual salary than the $8 million average outlined above. If we're talking a five-year deal for Evans, I expect it to be for about $38 million with $15.5 million guaranteed. If it's a six-year deal, I expect it to be in the area of $44 million with $19 million guaranteed.

I'd sign Lee Evans for 6 years, $44 million with $19 million guaranteed in a heartbeat - but that's the maximum deal in my book; anything beyond that deal, and I'd be calling off negotiations until the end of the regular season. It'd be easier to slap Evans with the franchise tag at that point. But next off-season, that deal will look like peanuts - and it will look like Styrofoam peanuts in two years. But that's just me. What do y'all think - too rich? Too cheap for what Evans will actually ask for? Discuss.

Poll

How much guaranteed money is the right amount to re-sign Lee Evans?

< $10 million

15 votes

$10 mil - $15 mil

53 votes

$15 mil - $20 mil

147 votes

$20 million +

30 votes

245 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 17 comments

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Comments

great write up

thats a really good job Brian. This is the kind of thing we should really be talking about right now and your examples and numbers are spot on. Here are my thoughts:

To me, the Fitzgerald contract is irrelevant. Due to clauses and escalaters in his contract, Fitz was due to make like 18 mil this season. AZ was in serious cap trouble and HAD to re-do his deal. The 30 mil guarenteed and the fact that the contract is only 4 years really reflect how much leverage Fitz had while negotiating. Let’s not forget that Evans and Fitzgerald simply aren’t in the same tier talent-wise. Fitz is a top 5 WR type of star talent. Evans is a top 20-25ish? WR and doesn’t deserve the same type of money. When you sign a player like Fitz, you can basically guarentee him every dollar of the contract because a career ending injury is the only thing that is going to keep him off of your roster.

Some of the same logic applies to Randy Moss. I know Evans is going to point to Moss’ contract, but I actually think that deal helped Buffalo. 9 mil a season with 5 mil per guarenteed for a guy who is statistically twice as productive as Evans should be something that helps Buffalo negotiate. Moss was the best WR in the league last year by a considerable margain and if Evans tries to compare himself to Moss, the Bills should be laughing on the other side of the table.

The Berrian and Walker contracts are the most relevant and Evans will probably sign a deal somewhere between the two. The Bills will quickly concede that Evans is worth Berrian money and the Evans camp should realize that Lee isn’t the player that Moss or Fitz are. The real negotiating should start there. I think a 6 year 48 mil contract with 18 guaranteed is about market value for Evans right now.

by kaisertown on May 21, 2008 1:11 PM EDT 0 recs

That wouldn’t be bad – I mean, if they can give out $50M+ to Schobel, why not $48 million to Evans?

by Brian Galliford on May 21, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

I would happily add a couple mil in guaranteed money to drop the salary by 500k a year. I think your numbers are pretty much right on too.

by kaisertown on May 21, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Brian

I believe the biggest determination of what Evans gets is Schobel’s contract, not other WRs around the league. It’s already been stated on these posts why you can discredit many of the contracts signed by WRs this past offseason.

Schobel got 7years, $50.5mil and $21mil of that guaranteed; that probably puts Evans in the $7.5-8mil per year category (Schobel is $7.2mil). The length of the contract will be 7-8 years, and his guaranteed money will be around $24-25mil. Guaranteed money isn’t a big deal to me with proving players, we know Evans can play so it’s highly unlikely we’d want to cut him before he plays out the first 3-4 years of his contract.

If I’m a betting man…. 7-years, $53.5mil.

by Harris on May 21, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Evans' deal

Agree with kaiser, the Fitz deal shouldn’t count. Evans can’t approach him in talent/skill/production, IMO, and shouldn’t approach him in salary either. Plus, $30M in guarantees is ridiculous.

I’m kind of surprised Moss only got a 3 year deal, but I also agree that that can help us get Evans inked. The deal wasn’t that big considering who it was for and the type of season he was coming off of.

I think the Jerry Porter deal shouldn’t matter here. He’s an average player and Evans will be asking for much more than that. Porter is irrelevant here, IMO.

The Berrian deal is probably where the Evans camp is starting as a baseline. I’d guess they want significantly more, at least guaranteed, to start. In the end, I think Evans will get something similar, but it will be financially better for him. I’m guessing 6 years for $48-50M with $17-20M guaranteed is where both parties will be looking to meet. Brian, I don’t agree that anything above the contract numbers you stated should cause negotiations to wait, and just for the reasons you mentioned. If the Bills truly want to keep Evans for the longterm, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t, they will need to pay a significant price to keep him. I wouldn’t cut off negotiations until after the season because if he has a big year, his price is going to shoot through the roof. It’s better to get him now while his price tag is relatively low.

I also can’t see the Bills offering a 5 year deal. At this point, they’re going to have him around for at least 2 more seasons (current deal, plus a potential franchise tag), so it doesn’t seem as prudent to only add on 3 years. In fact, I could see a 7 year deal before a 5 year deal.

Again, I still don’t see how Evans is worth all this money, BUT that’s what we’re looking at. We have to get a deal done sooner rather than later or else we’re going to be staring more ridiculous numbers in the face. Having Evans and Hardy together for at least 5 seasons would really solidify our WR corp and enable to have less worries about the position.

by Kurupt on May 21, 2008 2:01 PM EDT 0 recs

I think

that Evans is worth the money and this is a deal I think the Front Office has wanted to get done for a while and I think it will get done b4 the start of the regular season. I mean the option is to franchise him next year, or sign him now. You wait a year and he might want to play it out to get to free agency.

I like Evans. I don’t think he is elite. But he is one of the top WR’s in the NFL. I don’t know where on the list I’d put him? He is a pretty complete WR, only lacking the ability in the REd Zone to make plays to score TD’s.

Off the top of my head these are the WR’s I think Evans is behind. Meaning WR’s I would rather have than Evans. No particular order, and I left out T.O. and Ocho Stinko cuz I wouldn’t want them on my team, and I took in factors of age and fit for the team.
1. Moss
2. Houshmanzadeh
3. Fitzgerald
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Braylon Edwards
6. Plaxico Burress
7. Anquan Boldin
8. Steve Smith
9. Calvin Johnson
10. Lee Evans

Other considerations: Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Torry Holt

What do you think. So I say he is in the 7-13 range of top WR’s. He is worth the money

MARVelous

by MARVelous on May 21, 2008 2:24 PM EDT 0 recs

That's being kind

to Evans and Calvin Johnson….

I’d also have Steve Smith in the top 3. That guy is dynamite with even an average QB.

I don’t think Evans is a complete player. He is an inconsistent blocker and really struggles after the catch. I also think he tends to have issues getting open. Some say he’s double teamed a lot, but so are many of the guys you mentioned who still seem to find a way to get open.

Hines Ward, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Torry Holt, Donald Driver, TO, Marques Colston, and maybe Roy Williams, Jennings and Joey Galloway would be ahead of Evans on my list as well.

by Kurupt on May 21, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agree Kurupt

Until Evans can PROVE beyond a shadow of a doubt that a double team won’t stop him (Which Steve Smith does EVERY GAME he plays, and that is why in my list he is #2 behind only Randy Moss) he will always be very good, but not elite in my book.

All of the people K mentions all deal with double teams as their teams #1 WR, and they ALL still make the play (TO being the exception sometimes since he gets the dropsies on occassion, or heres the LB or Safety’s footsteps) but all of the rest still make plays regardless of how many guys are hanging off of them.

Lee hasn’t done that yet, there were plenty of times this season when a Safety and a CB were on Lee and I could see he wouldn’t make a 100% effort to break the double team and get open for Trent or JP. He did do it on occassion, but he didn’t do it EVERY TIME, which is what an elite or great WR talent will do. Until he cleans up his blocking, learns to break the double team, and to do the scramble drill right every time to help our QB out, he will always be veru good in my book, just not great or elite.

I think Brian’s deal would be my maximum as well, though I might gurantee more of it and shrink the salary a little bit more if it means we bag him quick.

Fear the mighty helmet wearing gopher, he is coming for your soul....

by WABillsfan on May 21, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

listing the WRs

I think Colston and Andre Johnson have to be on that list ahead of Evans.

Here is a list of WRs I would want I if were building a team similiar to the position the Bills are in now. I included age, but not salary. This is like a fantasy draft on Madden type concept.

1. Braylon Edwards
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Andre Johnson
5. Calvin Johnson
6. Randy Moss
7. TJ Houshmandzadeh
8. Marques Colston
9. Plaxico Burress
10. Steve Smith
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Anquan Boldin
13. Roy Williams
14. Branden Marshall
15. Greg Jennings
16. Chad Johnson
17. Tory Holt

I would then put in Evans along with a group including Roddy White and Wes Welker. Santonio Holmes and Kevin Curtis aren’t too far behind.

by kaisertown on May 21, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

See

I tend to disagree somewhat cuz I think Evans does get open especially on dig routes and curls especially when is 1 on 1. A CB has to respect his speed down the field. I just don’t think he gets enough opportunities. I do agree he struggles after the catch, he goes down to easily and doesn’t have the elusivness you’d like to see from a guy with elite speed.

Hopefully have a opposite type of player lined up opposite of Evans will keep the defense honest and give Evans more opportunities to make plays. I still think the real gapping hole in this offense is a middle of the field TE to stretch the field there. If we had a guy to consistently beat LB’s and Safeties the offense would be so much more dynamic. I think DE and pass-catching TE are my #1 needs after this 2008 campaign

MARVelous

by MARVelous on May 21, 2008 3:08 PM EDT 0 recs

Won't disagree there

We’re all hoping that Hardy does for Evans what this O needs. I still think Evans needs to get open more and has to cut out the dropsies he for some reason developed last year.

DE and TE (and Center and maybe LB) should be the top priorities next offseason, with DE as the biggest need…

by Kurupt on May 21, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wow

Well, I understand TO is old but no TO on the list is a little absured. Granted he wouldn’t work as a bBill but still a top 10 WR in terms of talent.

4 Categories: Q is where do you put Evans and then what salary does that type of player deserve? The debate becomes is Evans a Category 1 player or Category 3. Seems many of us believe he is a cat 3 player. However, I would take him over everyone in Cat 3 exepct Roy. I believe Evans has the S. Smith type potential to maybe be Cat 1. I predict a 5 year 40 million contract with 21-24 guaranteed.

Category 1: 4 players. Young, elite, already produced, unlimited potential. Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Fitz, Wayne

Category 2: 7 Players. Older, Elite, Age will catch up in 3 yrs or less. S. Smith, Moss, Holt, Chad J., TO, Harrisson, Burress (Burress could fall in category 3)

Category 3: 7 Player: Great WR but not elite based on age/production or lacks potential to be the top in the game (Ex colston): Boldin, Jennings, Driver, Housh, Colston, R. Williams, maybe Berrian (For the record this is the category I clearly place Evans in).

Category 4: 3 Players: Unlimited potential, relatively unproven: Calvin Johnson , Bowe, Marshall maybe Ginn.

by Berg79 on May 21, 2008 3:51 PM EDT 0 recs

I couldn't care less how much it costs

He scored 83.33% of the team’s TDs from the WR position last season. Buffalo is so bare of playmakers on offense that they may have to “overpay” to keep what little they have. These contracts go up every year. If Evans ends up the highest paid WR in the league, he’ll be back where he belongs between 8th-14th by this time in two years. Three years from now that contract would be a bargain and realistically, it won’t take making him the highest paid WR in the league to get this done. God, I hate hearing Bills fans pinching pennies with Wilson’s money. 19 million, 20 million, 23.7 million- who cares? Wilson owes this fan base a winner as this miserable decade winds down and that’s not going to get done by removing what few difference making offensive players we have, no matter how foreign the concept of scoring TDs is to Dick Jauron. At some point you need to stop allowing your 1st round picks to leave after their rookie contracts expire. Replacing them with a countless parade of rookie DBs each draft just isn’t enough to ever stop treading water. Pay to keep Evans and if Pacman Hardy works out, WR becomes an asset. Have Evans leave after the year and no matter what Hardy does, the Bills are in the same miserable boat. It’s real simple- get this deal done yesterday.

Never forget 56-10. Revenge.

by SuperFan82 on May 21, 2008 7:46 PM EDT 0 recs

God, I hate hearing Bills fans pinching pennies with Wilson’s money. 19 million, 20 million, 23.7 million- who cares?

Well, I’m thinking that the Buffalo Bills sort of care how much money they’ll be paying Evans. We’re all in the same boat here, Nick – we all think that Evans needs to be signed. This was just an attempt to figure out how much it will take to sign him. I don’t see what the problem with that is.

I’m thinking of starting a Rumblings contest. Or a fantasy league. We’ll have to pay to get in, and all proceeds will go toward the Get Nick Help Fund. You’re so tense all the time! Perhaps a massage from [ insert favorite female celebrity here ] will help; Rumblings would be glad to be your sponsor. :)

by Brian Galliford on May 22, 2008 7:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'd happily throw in some cash

Sanity is a terrible thing to waste.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on May 22, 2008 7:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sanity

If “sanity” was simply nodding your head in approval to whatever slop Wilson graciously elects to throw in my doggy dish, I’d rather be Hannibal Lecter…Brian, don’t blame me because you run a Bills blog (well). If you ran a St. Louis Cardinals blog, my tone would sound completely different to you. To steal Shaq’s Godfather analogy for his career sidekicks, Penny, Kobe, and D-Wade, out of my teams, the Cardinals are Michael Corleone, the New York Rangers are Sonny Corleone, and the Bills are perpetually Fredo. It’s not your fault, it’s not my fault, it’s this (cheerfully) mediocre organization’s fault. Considering their track record this decade, their cheerful tone drives me nuts…Wilson, Donahoe, Modrak, Gregg Williams, John Guy, Mularkey, GM Marv, Dick Jauron, Russ Brandon…these people create my sounding “tense” when I think about them and their inability to manage a team that I care about. Write an article about Albert Pujols and I think you’ll find me to be a ray of sunshine…what type of “message” comes with this fund of yours? Any of the Jessicas will do.

Never forget 56-10. Revenge.

by SuperFan82 on May 22, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up 0 recs