Is Lee Evans Worth a Lucrative Contract Extension?
by Brian Galliford on Jul 13, 2008 9:16 AM EDT
in Opinion
28 comments
Note: The weekly "Sunday Football Vid" appears at the bottom of this post.
One of the hottest topics throughout the 2008 NFL off-season, at least in Buffalo, has been whether or not the Bills would attempt to re-sign their top wide receiver, Lee Evans, to a new contract extension. Evans, about to enter his fifth NFL season, will opt out of the final year of his rookie deal to become a free agent next off-season should a new deal not be reached with Buffalo.
While there have been whispers that Evans' agent and the Bills have, indeed, been working on a contract extension as recently as late this past week, a deal has not yet been reached. It's clear, however, that Evans is the most established and talented of Buffalo's receivers - and with no replacement in clear sight for the Bills, signing Evans long-term has been seen as imperative for the club's future success.
But one does wonder - especially when talking about potentially one of the most expensive contracts on the team - is Evans worth a deal that will likely make him one of the richest wideouts in the NFL? Numbers crunching, with a dash of valuing, usually helps us out in that department.
Evans as a 1 vs. Evans as a 2
It's completely valid to point out that Evans has been more productive as the team's #1 receiver than he has as its #2. Evans played second fiddle through his first two years in the league, catching 96 passes for 1,586 yards and 16 touchdowns in those two seasons (48-843-9 as a rookie, 48-743-7 as a sophomore). In the past two seasons, as the team's top target, Evans has amassed 137 receptions for 2,141 yards and 13 scores (82-1292-8 in '06, 55-849-5 last season). Evans has caught more passes, but suffered a bit in the touchdown department, as the team's go-to receiver.
What is more valid to point out, however, is that Evans has been at his best when there has been consistency at quarterback. Evans set a personal record with 9 receiving touchdowns in his rookie season, when Drew Bledsoe started all 16 games at quarterback. Evans' best overall season came in '06 - where his 82-reception, 8-touchdown performance left him a serious consideration for the Pro Bowl - and J.P. Losman started all 16 games that season. '05 saw the Losman vs. (Kelly) Holcomb debate, and this past year, of course, it was Losman vs. Edwards.
Evans is at his best when he's got consistency at quarterback. If Trent Edwards can play for sixteen games this season (or at least miss less than three), it's a safe bet that Evans will improve on his lackluster 2008 productivity.
And now, we value
Evans takes some knocks from this fan base for not being an all-around receiver - for example, he'll never be a possession threat that dominates the middle of the field - but we can't really fault Evans for that; it's just his skill set. Can he become more a more consistent all-around threat? Certainly, he's still got room to improve. But maybe we shouldn't expect Evans to become a receiver thoroughly dominant in every aspect of receiving - because that's not realistic. He's already an excellent deep threat, and he's scored at a nice clip (29 career scores) despite having that label. This guy, plain and simple, puts up points.
Where Evans' true value comes in is as a member of this team. Answer this question: what would Buffalo's receiving corps be without Lee Evans? The answer is ugly to think about; rookie James Hardy would be the team's top target, and there would be mediocre talent behind him. Evans is still hands down Buffalo's best and most valuable receiver; the benefit of Hardy is that Evans won't need to be the sole producer from his position anymore.
We can't forget the fact that Evans, in four seasons, has established himself as a team leader, either. He was a team captain throughout the '07 season, and it's highly likely he'll retain that role this season. He's honest to a fault (see: defending Losman last season), he's loyal, and he works hard. He's also just 27 years old - about to enter his prime as a receiver. That's tough to find these days, especially considering by all indications Evans wants to be back.
My Verdict, and then Yours
If I'm Buffalo, I'm doing all I can to get Evans re-signed long-term before he reports to St. John Fisher College for training camp on July 25. Do I think he's got a chance to be one of the best receivers in the league? He might be a guy who hits the fringe of that title, but he's not there yet. Do I think he's worth a contract that makes him one of the league's highest-paid receivers? Definitely not. But do I think the Bills need to sign him? Absolutely. Evans isn't a perfect receiver, but his value to Buffalo's offense is tremendous. He's a good locker room guy and a good mentor to Buffalo's younger receivers as well. This guy needs to be in Buffalo long-term - whatever the cost. He's too valuable to simply let go.
Agree? Disagree? Something else relevant that you'd like to point out? The comments section, as always, is wide open.
Evans in Sunday Football Vid
This week's "Sunday Football Vid" is as much about Evans as it is my desire to get yet another Gus Johnson on the front page of this blog. Gus Johnson is the best announcer, ever, in the history of Planet Earth, and here he brings excitement to a relatively meaningless - but still fun to watch - Evans touchdown last season...
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Good effort by Evans
but a “strike” by Loseman. It was an underthrown ball that should have been intercepted.
by Joe P. on Jul 13, 2008 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ha, yeah, it certainly was. That’s Gus Johnson for you. Perpetually turning the mediocre into the epic.
Just a question: Do you purposely call Losman “Loseman”?
by Brian Galliford on Jul 13, 2008 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think so (cheap shot). I like Losman.
I guess “Loseman” isn’t as overused as “Loserman”, though.
by Brian Galliford on Jul 13, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best Political Spin on that
Gore-Lieberman became Sore-Loserman after the 2000 election fiasco…
by Ron From NM on Jul 13, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The more I think about it
the more I think I stole Loseman from a RF365 article. Maybe Ron remembers. Didn’t they write a piece when Losman was handed the job about his struggles as a college QB. It ended with a line that went something like…..he might change his name from Loseman to Winman. Man….did I drink a lot of that kool aide. The strong arm, the gunslinger mentality, the next coming of Kelly….and, I really did like the kid.
by Joe P. on Jul 13, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why??
Brian, I too love listening to Gus Johnson, but why did you choose this video highlight of Lee Evans? I think the TD pass against the Dolphins would have been more appropriate(more Edwards, less Losman).
by the Skycap on Jul 13, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was the first one that came to mind. I just love the “OHHHH!” Johnson yells after Evans comes away with the ball.
by Brian Galliford on Jul 13, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot about the article
As much as the Bills need Evans, I don’t think they will give him top 5 money, most likley top 10. I will all depend on what Evans is willing to sign for. If he won’t sign, then I would franchise him. That will hopefully give us enough time to see what we have in Hardy and try to draft another WR. Maybe Panda will be available? Ha.
by Joe P. on Jul 13, 2008 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Any extension is going to be lucrative...
It’s just going to be a matter of how lucrative. I’ve been on record saying Evans is not a true #1WR, and I’m sticking with it (although the highlight today will beg to differ with my views – that was a #1 WR play).
With that said, extending him now would be cheaper than doing it next year, provided he has a good season. If they can work out something that’s decent, I’ll be okay with it. But if it’s the kind of contract that would vault him into the top five, I wouldn’t be. The only guy on this squad rght now who should be paid at the top five in his position is Peters. He’s the only guy I can see who really deserves a significant portion of your teams cap space.
by krytime on Jul 13, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Evans is not a true #1
and will never be confused with an elite receiver. However, with very little else at the position and hopefully a player opposite him in Hardy that will compliment him quite well, we will have to pay him like a top WR. I wouldn’t have a huge problem with it if he gets a deal along the lines of what Berrian got, maybe a bit more, but I won’t be that happy if he’s getting Fitzgerald money at $10+M per season. He’s definitely nowhere near that good.
The only aspect of his game that he’s been consistently good at is the deep ball. He struggles over the middle, is a decent but not great blocker and is not a threat to turn a short gain into a big play despite his speed. That’s where I have problems with him being paid so handsomely. If he showed any aptitude in those areas, I would feel more comfortable with a huge deal. He’s not a complete WR and paying him like one of the best doesn’t make the most sense. Unfortunately, that’s what we’ll have to do.
I’m hoping Hardy can at least be a threat that causes defenses to open up the deep middle a bit more for Evans. And it’d be nice if Evans were used on slants more often and hopefully he steps up in those plays unlike last year (see Giants game). He has the talent, now it’s time for him to step his game up even more than he has.
~K
by Kurupt on Jul 13, 2008 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Evaluating Evans
Rumblers, it’s really difficult to evaluate Evans and his ability to be a #1 receiver due to a couple of facts. One, the QB position. Kurupt points out that he struggles over the middle of the field. In defense of Evans, I would like to point out that JP Losman wasn’t the most accurate passer when it came those types of routes. How often did we see him throw bounce passes or not even throw the ball at all to take a sack. The other point in Evans’ defense was Steve Fairchild. Evans was either lined up on the left outside or right outside, hardly ever in the slot. Maybe this was done due to the fact that Losman was so inaccurate and could only throw the long ball. In my opinion, Lee Evans has the talent to be a Marvin Harrison type wideout. He has great, strong hands (as evidenced in the above video). He as fast as Harrison and Marvin isn’t no great run blocker either. As I see it, the only difference between Marvin and Lee is Peyton Manning. If Lee was playing for the Colts, he would be a Pro Bowler by now. I sure hope like hell that OBD signs him to a long term contract so that we can have our version of the Colts for years to come (Harrison, Wayne, Addai… Evans, Hardy, Lynch).
by the Skycap on Jul 13, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Bills need to make a statement with their contracts
In the comments section yesterday under the Brett Favre post, someone wrote that he was the kind of quarterback who made average receivers look good.
Evans may not be Randy Moss, but I think Brian makes a good point: with consistency at quarterback, he thrives. Edwards, under the right circumstances, could make Evans look very good, and vice versa.
But I think this issue really goes back to something more fundamental. Please forgive me if I sound like I am carping on this subject. This team is so close to really being competitive. They need to make a statement to their players, their fans, and the rest of the league: that statement would be that they believe in their talented young players, that they will reward performance on the field, and that they are truly interested, even passionate, about putting a better product on display on Sundays.
To do all of that, the solution is quite simple: sign Evans, Peters, Crowell, and get the deals done with their top three rookies.
by Defensewinsgames on Jul 13, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
amen brother!
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Jul 13, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Franchising and contracts
There are a couple of things to keep in mind when it comes to Evans and a contract extension.
First, if Buffalo uses the franchise tag they are obligated (I’m pretty certain) to pay him the average of the top 5 WR salaries in the league. While it’s only for a year he’d be no worse than the 4th highest paid WR, possibly as high as the 2nd highest paid WR depending on how the numbers come out. We can speculate all we want about whether Evans is worth top 10 money and if QB play and poor play calling have limited his potential. Evans flat out isn’t worth top 3 WR money.
Second, while a contract extension-particularly a long one-will look gaudy now it really won’t look so outlandish as the cap continues to climb. If they settle on something like $7 million per year on average over 6 or 7 years (Dockery money!) no one will think about it much 3 years from now. Except Evans, who by then might be miffed that he’s not making $10 million per year like all of the other good WRs in the game…
by Ron From NM on Jul 13, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Better than most
Ron, granted he’s not one of the top 3 wideouts in the game NOW, but he has the potential and tools to be.. He is definitely a better wideout than Javon Walker or Bernard Berrian are they are making a mint. Extending him now would be a very wise move. Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison are on their way out of the league and in the next 3 or 4 years we could have a list of the best wideouts that looks like this: Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson, Lee Evans. Lee Evans is a playmaker and playmakers deserve to be paid.
by the Skycap on Jul 13, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
No meantion of Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Plaxico Burress, Chad Johnson or TJ Houshmandzadeh. What about up and comers like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jennings. And that is just off the top of my head.
Lee Evans isn’t one of the best 15 WRs in the league right now and he will never be considered a top 10 WR.
To be honest, the difference between Evans and the best 5 WRs is way bigger than the difference between him and guys like Bernard Berrian and Santana Moss. It is more likely that Evans never has an 80 catch season or scores double digit TDs in a year than he develops into a premier WR.
by kaisertown on Jul 13, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kaisertown, you must be kidding with that 2nd list of receivers! I may give you Greg Jennings if Favre is QB’ing:) Marcus Colston, Brandon Marshall, remember that Lee already had their type of season (stat wise) 2 yrs.ago. Evans will never be considered a top 10 WR? Show him the money and watch him earn it!!
by the Skycap on Jul 13, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I thought he had a good name in Dwayne Bowe – he had an excellent rookie season despite terrible QB play in KC.
by Brian Galliford on Jul 13, 2008 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Evans is one of the league’s premier deep threats, but is mostly unable to do anything other than go deep, or use that threat to run comeback routes.
There are four types of WRs that can really be considered a number 1.
The first is Randy Moss. I know I said types, but he doesn’t really fit into a category. The guy mostly just goes deep, but it works for him. He is so good at getting wide open over the top that it creates oppurtunites for him to get open on shorter routes. The fact that he is 6’4 doesn’t hurt either. He has 66 career catches of 40 or more yards.
The second is your elite “do-it-all” type of guys. These are typically taller guys with great athletic ability. They consistently get open on all kinds of routes. I would put these players in this category (in no particular order):
TO
Tory Holt
Andre Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Marvin Harrison – formerly – did you know he once caught 143 passes one year?
Chad Johnson
Plaxico Burress
Calvin Johnson – will be – give this kid a year or two and he will be considered a top 5-10 WR
The third kind is a possesion guy who the QB can always throw to. These WRs keep drives alive and have the ability to sneak behind the defense on occasion too.
Brandon Marshall
Marques Colston
Anquan Boldin
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Reggie Wayne
Dwayne Bowe
The last kind are playmakers who can make things happen with the ball in their hands. Some of them look like deep threats, but are a threat to house any screen or slant they catch too.
Steve Smith
Greg Jennings – lead the league with 7.4 yac
Roddy White
Roy Williams could make one of those categories too. Evans is a 5’10 receiver who averaged a meager 3.7 yac last year. I don’t think he is that much better than guys like Berrian or Santana Moss.
by kaisertown on Jul 13, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are being way too harsh on Lee Evans
I have to disagree with you on this kaiser. I think you are being way to hard on Lee Evans for two reasons.
The first is that nearly every receiver you mention as being “better” than Lee plays on an offense that has a second receiving weapon to relieve and spread the defensive focus.
Dwayne Bowe has Tony Gonzalez
Reggie Wayne has Marvin Harrison
TO has Jason Whitten
Braylon Edwards has Kellen Winslow
Anquan Boldin has Larry Fitzgerald
Randy Moss has Wes Welker
Roy Williams has Calvin Johnson
Santonio Holmes teams with Hines Ward
TJ Houshmandzedah has Chad Johnson
Torry Holt always had Issac Bruce until a few weeks ago
Even Marques Colston has Reggie Bush who is a reception machine out of the backfield
Who does Lee Evans have to attack with? Robert Royal? Josh Reed? Wake up and realize defenses are ONLY afraid of Lee Evans in the passing game. Hardy should help in that department if he does his job.
Second, in this league the good receivers tend to hit their stride in their third season in the league. Well Lee Evans did just that, chalking up 80+ receptions and 1,200+ yards. And he did it when he knew who his quarterback was and had him for a full season, despite not having any other options. I think its unfair to use last season against Lee Evans, last season half our squad was on IR and week to week JP or Trent was going down.
The Bills had better re-sign him and they will, because they saw what was happening last year and that was that defenses only feared Lee Evans. So they addressed the problem and got Hardy. Lee Evans best three to five seasons are ahead of him and he’s entering his prime now knowing who his QB is and with a weapon to attack along with him in Hardy.
Take it easy on the anti-Evans rhetoric, everyone else on your list has a dangerous wingman, and you can’t take out a frustration with an incompetent unit on our best and only proven weapon. Football is a team sport and I don’t care how good Lee Evans is, if he doesn’t have any threatening teammates he is not going to thrive. And yet, with steady QB play, he did in 2006. I repeat, his best years are ahead of him. The Bills don’t need him to be TO, they just need him to be Lee Evans, that’s good enough. What he needs from the Bills is far more important: a quarterback and another weapon through the air.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Jul 14, 2008 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on a good team.
if he’s on a good team?
we’re not having this conversation.
it’s hard to overestimate how atrocious this team’s offense has been. i think more than any other position, wr’s are the greatest beneficiary of, rather than contributor to a solid offense.
once that offense becomes competent, then the wrs shine, and become difference makers.
lock this guy up.
by sri on Jul 13, 2008 7:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chicken or the Egg?
You say lock Evans up; but then you say this: “wr’s are the greatest beneficiary of, rather than contributor to a solid offense.”
Which is it? Does Evans push your team to greatness, or is he just a ride along guy who needs better players around him to be good?
by krytime on Jul 13, 2008 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
second premise was
once the offense becomes competent, the wr’s push it over the top.
i say lock him up, because you want a great talent with great locker room qualities with familiarity for the system and personnel around a team for as long as possible.
yeah, there’s a little bit of a contradiction in what i said, but it’s my strong belief that evans’ intangible qualities that will push the team to competency, and his tangible qualities that can carry it to greatness once it becomes competent.
by sri on Jul 14, 2008 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Edwards takes the next step
and really grabs hold of our offense and leads us to the endzone more than we’ve become accustomed to, then Evans will probably see the success right there with him. Any starting WR will reap the fruits of a successful QB, and I don’t see that Evans would be any different. HOWEVER, in order for Trent to reach the point where this team needs, he needs Evans to really step up his game and make it easier for Trent to have that success. With that, we need to see Evans be more of a playmaker on shorter routes, do a better job getting open and really become the go-to target.
So yes, the WR’s usually are the beneficiary of a good offense, rather than a contributor, but in this case, I really think Evans needs to contribute to Trent’s growth more than most WR’s on other teams.
~K
by Kurupt on Jul 13, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll start off with an interesting Evans fact. The Bills won every game that he had 50 or more yards receiving last year. The problem there is that he had 9 games without 50 yards and the Bills lost 9 times.
Ron, the franchise tag is only the 5 highest base salaries of the player’s position. If somebody would’ve franchised a WR this year, that players salary would only be 7.848 mil. So if that even jumps up to 8.25 next year, it would be about what Evens would get in a long term deal anyways. http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d806a24a3&template=without-video&confirm=true
Sorry guys, but Bills fans really overestimate Evans. He is primarily a deep threat and as a result is always going to be an inconsistent player. Even in his big 2006 season he had 5 games where he caught 2 or less passes. Last year he had 7 games of 2 or less catches. How can you expect Trent to develop and the Bills to win games when our best pass catcher completely disappears for a third of the season. Lee is undersized and isn’t all that impressive after the catch and that is a terrible combination. He isn’t a number 1 type of receiver. He is also 27 years old and has looked like essentially the same player for his entire Bills career.
If I am the Bills I would have no intention of signing Evans long term. Let him play this season and franchise him the next year and then let him walk when he is 29 and about to be overpayed. That gives the Bills two more offseasons to find a replacement for him and they will have that 8 mil franchise tag coming off the books if they want to go the FA route. Houshmandzadeh and Roy Williams are both FAs after this season and I would rather pay either of them around 9 mil then I would give Evans 7.5 mil. Braylon Edwards is a FA after 2010 and I would give him way more than Evans will get. Brandon Marshall is a UFA after 2010 too.
So my question is a simple one. What is the difference between Lee Evans and Kevin Curtis or Santana Moss or Bernard Berrian? And would you give any of those guys 8 mil a season?
by kaisertown on Jul 13, 2008 10:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
paying evans
Not all Bills fans overvalue Evans. Personally, I have been against giving Evans a huge deal since before last year, but I would understand if the FO decided to do it. His production in 06 was completely dependent on big plays. Due to this, he disappears for games at a time when he can’t get oen deep. He has almost zero run after the catch ability (except for on a straight line on a bomb). Also, somebody compared him to Marvin Harrison, which is a joke.
With that said, I would still try to sign him to a solid deal. Unfortunately the FA contracts (Berrian, Walker) given this past offseason will make that almost impossible. I would be happy to franchise him after this year if we can’t get a new contract done to give the team more time to sign or draft another option.
I do agree that the lack of qb consistency hurts his stats and production a lot. Lee is a top-20 receiver, but will probably get paid like a top-10 receiver. If the FO believes his character and leadership create enough value to offset the discrepancy, then they should give him a big deal.
by jmorris0823 on Jul 13, 2008 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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