In Defense of Lee Evans
by poz on Jul 15, 2008 8:29 PM EDT
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PrintEditor's Note, by Brian Galliford: This excellent article by Rumbler "poz" sheds some new light - thanks to some superb research - on Lee Evans' true value to the Buffalo Bills. Thanks, poz - ripping good read. End Note
After our recent discussion on Buffalo Bills WR Lee Evans and a lucrative contract extension I feel compelled to continue an exchange of ideas, specifically because I found that many question not only if Lee Evans deserves a large contract but also if he is a number one wide receiver. Personally, I am of the opinion that Evans not only deserves a top 10 contract but also that he is a true number #1 receiver in this league and with the right quarterback, is an elite player at his position. This FanPost will hope to provide a clear representation of my argument in this regard.
1.) THE QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL - Many Bills fans seem quick to make Evans the scapegoat for three seasons under 1,000 yards and even quicker to point out that he is a deep-threat target only. I believe that both of these statements are the direct result of our incompetence at the quarterback position for the last four years. As many on this site have used in arguments to play down expectations for James Hardy, it is always very difficult for a rookie receiver to produce and contribute in their first year. A majority of us seemed to believe, in a poll on this blog, that Hardy would finish with around 600 yards and 6-7 TDs this season. Hardy is 6'6 and a redzone specialist and the point has been made against Evans that he lacks #1 receiver height, and yet in his rookie season he put up 843 yards and 9 TDs, playing with stability at QB.
In his second season production dropped during the Holcomb - Losman struggle and again last season during the Edwards - Losman battle. However, 2006, when a traditional measurement of a great receiver is if he can blossom by his third season, Evans exploded for 82 receptions, 1,291 yards, and 8 TDs and had only 4 games with less than 50 yards receiving. In 2006 of course, he played under one quarterback the whole season. To get an idea of how much playing without certainty at QB can affect a receiver consider this. In 2006, his big year, Evans was targeted for passes 137 times. Last year, with 4 different switches at starting QB, Evans was only targeted 113 times! The argument that Lee Evans is not a number one receiver really takes a hit when you consider he has played with four QBs in his first four years and he still has scored 29 TDs since he entered the league, proving he has a knack for the endzone and that he puts points on the board.
In addition, over his career Evans has averaged around 16.0 yards per catch, that is right on par with guys like Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens. And both Owens and Wayne, like Evans, had only one 1,000 yard season in their first four years, before launching into their primes (Owens' like Evans, came in his third season followed by a drop off in the fourth). The anti-Evans march is paraded on his drop off last year but if you watch the Edwards highlights on this site from a few days ago it is hard not to notice that Robert Royal dominated them. Once Edwards came in, he was learning on the fly and we had to switch to a dink and dunk offense with a QB who hadn't yet learned to throw at targets that were not his safety valve, as is the case with all rookie QBs. Do not be so quick to judge Lee Evans, we really only have one season to gauge his number #1 ability on, as the other three constituted his rookie year and two he played under QBs getting yanked in and out of the line-up. And he produced in 2006, finishing as the 7th most productive receiver in football, closing the season ranked 6th for yardage putting up more than Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Steve Smith
2.) BEING THE ONLY WEAPON - Evans has all the physical tools of any #1 receiver. He has electrifying speed, can change directions on a dime, is a seamless route runner, has proven he can win jump balls despite his height, and will go over the middle. As part of the argument against Evans, some have pointed to the superior production of almost 20 other receivers in the league. After gathering many of those names, you may all be surprised to find that most of those 20 are teammates who play across from each other and can force opposing defenses to play against two aerial threats. Here is a list of those names, and the receiver who plays opposite them. For those who don't have a fellow top 20 receiver opposite them I found that they did have a big play tight end instead. Here are players that are supposedly "better" than Evans:
Dwayne Bowe - Tony Gonzalez
Reggie Wayne - Marvin Harrison
TO - Jason Witten
Braylon Edwards - Kellen Winslow
Anquan Boldin - Larry Fitzgerald
Randy Moss - Wes Welker
Roy Williams - Calvin Johnson
Santonio Holmes - Hines Ward
TJ Houshmandzedah - Chad Johnson
Torry Holt always had Issac Bruce until a few weeks ago
Even Marques Colston has Reggie Bush, an excellent receiving option
Now let us take a look at Lee Evans' running mates since he became a number one: Peerless Price, Josh Reed, Robert Royal. I can guarantee that the drop-off in targeted passes at Lee Evans from 137 to 113 has just as much to do with other teams looking at film from 06 and realizing that they had nothing to fear from those B-listers thus blanketing Evans, than it has to do with the fact that we can't keep one QB on the field for our top weapon. Our number two and three receiving producers after Evans last season were Reed and Parrish and they barely equaled Evans in yardage and scored 1 TD between the two of them! Compare that to the list above! Robert Royal was our number two aerial scoring threat with 3 TDs! Between our quarterback situation and the receivers out there with Lee Evans of course we couldn't get him the ball, defenses only had one man to fear.And yet, he has still scored 29 TDs in four years, but some how he is not a number 1? Over the same period WR Roy Williams has 28 TDs, one less than Lee Evans. Since Lee Evans joined the Bills, Josh Reed has 4 TDs.Terrell Owens, during his first four seasons in the league got into the endzone 30 times, one more than Evans, and he was playing beside the incomparable Jerry Rice, who complimented him with 23 TDs of his own. For a more modern comparison, in three years playing with Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, through injuries and with one less season, provided 8 TDs in support as a TE. Sounds a little more remarkable that Evans put up his 06 numbers when you consider the cast of clowns he was running with.
3.) FINDING SOLUTIONS - The Buffalo Bills would be foolish, simply foolish, not to lock up our best and only aerial weapon for as long as we can and to a lucrative contract, especially because the team has finally addressed the issues which have held Evans back from establishing himself as an elite receiver. We have stability at quarterback, barring injury, and we have brought in a complimentary, dangerous weapon to play alongside him. Let us not also forget that for the first time in years we have a solid, returning offensive line unit which will keep the quarterback upright and give him time to find his players downfield. Last year alone, Edwards took less sacks, 12 to 14, than Losman despite playing many more downs. Edwards will no longer be a rookie, Hardy is a big target, our O-Line can protect, and we will no longer have an ultra-conservative play caller barking commands at offensive coordinator.
CONCLUSION: The Bills had better re-sign Lee Evans and they will, because they saw what was happening last year and that was that defenses only feared Lee Evans. So they addressed the problem and got Hardy. Lee Evans' best five seasons are ahead of him and he’s entering his prime now knowing who his QB is and with a weapon to attack alongside him in Hardy.
Take it easy on Evans and the "he is not a number #1" rhetoric, the man has never had a dangerous wingman, and we can’t take out our frustration with multi-seasons long incompetence on the offensive unit on our best and only proven weapon. Football is a team sport and I don’t care how good Lee Evans is, if he doesn’t have any threatening teammates he is not going to thrive. And yet, with steady QB play, he did in 2006. I repeat, his best years are ahead of him. The Bills don’t need him to be Terrell Owens, they just need him to be Lee Evans, that’s good enough. What he needs from the Bills is far more important: a quarterback and another weapon through the air.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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I agree mostly
I have been saying that paying Evans 8-9 million a year with a 15-20 mil bonus is not outrageous.
However, why shouldn’t the Bills let some of the season go on before they lock him up. It makes no difference really, except for the mental stability of Evans, who to me does not shake too easy. He is everything the Bills are about; hard work, excellent character, limitless talent.
To me, he is our Marvin Harrison. Harrison is 2 inches taller and ten pounds lighter. Evans has that ability, but if it is proven that Edwards is better than JP and Schonert is an improvement over Fairchild, than Lee Evans will prove to be much more than just a deep threat, and I expect some more over the middle stuff. Wait and see. (Anyone see #83 Reed highlights around that show off his over the middle ability? I’d like to see some, as he is the best player ever to be a threat across the middle—hands down. Love the Running man)
This town needs an enema!
FINALLY!!
Poz, I tried to say exactly that (in an abbreviated way) when this issue was first brought up. Ron from NM, Kurupt, Kaisertown and jmorris0823 thought I was NUTS. They all state that he does not have run after the catch ability, but how can they tell when the QB that was throwing to him couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn unless it ran a fly pattern. Also the OC ran alot of curl and sideline routes for him. I go back to his days in Wisconsin when he returned kicks and know that he can be a good to great YAC receiver when provided the opportunity. Like I said before, substitute him in Indy’s offense with Marvin Harrison and his stats would have been comparable if not better. If the Bills have any intentions to be a perennial playoff team, signing Evans is CRUCIAL. Thanks Poz for spelling it all out.
Nice work
I applaud you for putting this post together and you use some very strong arguments. I’m not sure what happened after your 2nd and 3rd points and if you had anything else you were looking to add there. I do have to disagree with you on him being a top 10 WR and a true #1….
1. The QB carousel is a good argument and I don’t disagree that Evans’ numbers likely took somewhat of a hit last year because of it. It is important to note that with Losman at the helm in the first 2 games of last season after a full summer of working together, Evans still only managed 4 catches for 22 yards. To me, however, the truly great players are able to excel regardless of who is throwing them the ball. Just a few examples from last year:
-Torry Holt. In the 4 games that Marc Bulger missed due to injury, Holt had 23 catches for 347 yards and 2 TD’s. Throw in STL’s horrid O-Line and a banged up Steven Jackson, and it’s a good example of Holt taking his game up a notch. Also, in the final 6 games of the 2005 season where Bulger was out, Holt was able to put up 43 catches for 519 yards and 3 TD’s. That’s an elite WR stepping up when forced to catch passes from a backup.
-Steve Smith. Talk about a guy with absolute bums throwing him passes. Guys like Vinny Testeverde, David Carr and Matt Moore were just ATROCIOUS last year. Despite that and all the attention Smith received from Defenses, he still was able to put up 71 catches for 721 yards and 3 TD’s in the 13 games that Delhomme was out. Those aren’t good numbers, but remember, he had some of the worst QB’s in recent memory trying to get him the rock. He was still able to be a possession WR last year despite that not being his strength.
-Roddy White. This guy is not elite and never will be, but he put up great numbers last year catching passes from bums like Joey Harrington, Byron Sandwich and Chris Redman. 83 catches for 1202 yards and 6 TD’s despite the revolving door at QB in ATL’s backfield. Looks very similar to Evans’ numbers from ‘06 when he had 1 QB the whole year.
I’m sure there are other recent examples that would fit here, but I don’t buy the whole change of QB’s thing as a major reason for Evans’ dip in production. As the ”#1 WR” here, he has to be able to get open more often and be a target for whoever is the QB. He’s just too inconsistent and is not a threat over the middle. A guy with his speed should make a living taking short passes and turning them into big gains. He just doesn’t do it.
2. I can’t agree with him being the only weapon as part of the reason he struggled last year. Again, the top guys elevate their games because they are truly elite. Steve Smith hasn’t had a running mate worth a crap since Muhammed left town. Andre Johnson puts up great numbers without much help around him. Brandon Marshall put up monster numbers last year with little help around him. Again, Roddy White put up big numbers with crud around him. Larry Fitzgerald put up huge numbers in the games Anquan Boldin missed last year. Joey Galloway’s been putting up the numbers by himself. Marques Colston has put up huge numbers in his 2 seasons with scrubs opposite him. Heck, Evans put up his big season with the same guys he was surrounded by last year. Just because a top WR doesn’t have much help around him is no excuse for him to put up such sorry numbers.
3. The team may have addressed some of the issues for why the offense has stunk, but Evans has a lot to do with his poor output. Why would we give so much money to a guy who seemingly needs a ton of help around him and a QB who locks in on him? I hope we resign him soon, but I am already fretting the money he is likely to receive. He’s not a Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, TO, etc type player and can be gameplanned against. Put a safety over the top and what exactly does Evans do? He’s not a great possession receiver, struggles to make plays over the middle and isn’t a guy with much YAC ability. We saw teams able to shut him down last year because he was almost that dreaded “one-trick pony”. I know he’s better than that and has the talent to succeed outside of the deep ball, as we’ve seen glimpses before, but he just doesn’t have the consistency the great WR’s have. If he can develop that and improve in the intermediate and short games, he can have the type of season we expect and need.
Also, you had this to say:
He has electrifying speed, can change directions on a dime, is a seamless route runner, has proven he can win jump balls despite his height, and will go over the middle.
What have you seen that I haven’t seen? Speed, obviously I agree. Change of direction, mostly I’ll agree with. He’s not shifty though and doesn’t make guys miss. A seemless route runner? Not what I’ve seen…I think this is something he needs to continue working on. That’s part of why I think he doesn’t get open as often as we need. He has the ability to run great routes consistently, as I’ve seen plenty of times where his routes were perfect, but again consistency is an issue here. Jump balls? WHAAAATTT?? Besides that crazy play against the Jets last year and a semi-jump ball against the Skins (I think), I don’t really recall Evans making many plays up in the air. That’s not his game, nor should it be. Over the middle? Not in my opinion. This is where he REALLY needs to step up. Edwards is a guy who will throw a bunch of short, quick passes. What better way for Evans to get involved that with these routes? Evans has never been a guy to go over the middle, but I think he has the ability to have great success there. His great speed and hands should really be effective here and it’s up to Schonert to really force the issue here.
Overall, Evans is a great talent and is going to compensated like one. Whether he will be worth the money given to him remains to be seen, but in order to earn it, he really needs to step his game up this year. Some of the factors you have mentioned have had an impact, but they aren’t things that can’t be overcome. Time for Evans to step up to the plate and play like the #1 we all want and need him to be.
~K
Come on Kurupt
Kurupt, Holt had Isaac Bruce on the other side and Steve Smith was the man when Jake Delhomme was QB’ing with Muhsin Muhammed on the other side. Evans has never been a guy to go over the middle? See his collegiate highlights. His NFL QB (JP) couldn’t throw the pass without bouncing it on the ground or throwing behind him. Like I said with opportunity, he will produce. (You guys have me sounding like his agent)
The middle
I agree that this is a part of the game that Evans can handle, and I believe he is a shifty player that can make guys miss. It just seems that when he is thrown the ball well, it is mostly deep, and otherwise, our qbs and possibly the OC have misused him badly. The route running thing is something I have to be honsest I am not sure about, but it could explain some of his misfortunes in tems of getting open.
This town needs an enema!
Well
Bruce has been dinged up the past couple of years and Smith/Muhammed last played together in 2003, right when Smith was getting awesome.
I don’t care about his college highlights, I want to see him have success over the middle in the pros. He has shown very little in that regard thus far, whether it’s all his fault or not. Yeah, Losman has been a steaming pile of expletive deleted for most of his career, but I still don’t think Evans has done enough to help the QB by stepping up himself. And remember the Giants game where he let the slant bounce off him for the TD for Mitchell? Can’t have that anymore…
~K
Thank you
By the way, Brian thankfully was able to fix the weird gibberish that showed up in the fanpost column by editing it out on the front page version, I didn’t have anything to add, the computer apparently did.
While I can understand your frustrations with Evans (I have been watching the same games as you after all) I do have some counter points.
1.) While Evans struggled during the first two games of last year those did come against the Denver Broncos who have Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, a tough gig when you are the only passing option, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who ranked first in the league last year in passing defense only letting up 104 yards per game. So they really didnt let anyone pass on them (except Dave Garrad in the playoffs apparently haha)
2.) In regards to Torry Holt and Steve Smith playing with nothing last year keep in mind that Steve Smith had 6 seasons under his belt with the same team and Torry Holt had 8 seasons under his belt with the same team. Experience has to count for something right? Evans had only 3 seasons under his belt last year so he was just reaching the cusp of his prime while those guys were in it. For all that Smith still only had 150 yards and 2 TDs more than Evans despite catching 87 passes. Evans was also still catching passes from a rookie while Smith got most of them from Vinny Testeverde, plenty plenty of experience there, and David Carr, who has been around for what, five seasons now? That’s the experience factor again. Holt also had support from Randy McMichael and Isaac Bruce who had 430 and 730 yards respectively, and 3 and 4 TDs. Holt also caught passes from Bulger and Gus Frerotte, who has been in the league since 1994. Two more guys who through experience understand the playbook, checking receivers and the game better than a rookie QB
3.) In regards to those players you mentioned who put numbers without help, aren’t you playing it unfair by granting Roddy White and Brandon Marshall the benefit of the doubt at the expense of Lee Evans, considering they both had their only 1,000 yard seasons last year as did Evans the year before? Interestingly, White’s numbers in his third year were almost identical to Evans (83-1200-6). If this was last year and the argument was against a different receiver you would be lumping Evans right in with Marshall and White with that argument. Remember an 06 season like that from JP Losman isnt easy either, its not like JP is a stud. In regards to Andre Johnson, in my opinion the guy is a freak and if he played on a contender team he would be in the Randy Moss category, cant take anything away from him.
4.) You’re discounting a lot of the production both the Saints and the Bucs got from other players in the passing game not named Joey Galloway and Marques Colston. For the Saints, Reggie Bush caught 73 passes last year! In addition, in their first two seasons in the league Marques Colston caught 168 passes and Reggie Bush caught 161 and they both rank 1st and 2nd all time for rookie-sophmore years. To say Colston doesn’t have a threat to play with him is simply untrue. For Galloway and the Bucs, Ike Hilliard came up big with 62 catches and 722 yards while Earnest Graham added 49 receptions. So those two teams had other options.
Finally, I think you will see that Evans does and can go over the middle once he plays with an experienced Trent Edwards. JP simply couldn’t hit him before and by jump balls I meant that Lee is willing to make the spectacular catch when covered. I really do think Evans’ situation the last four years has been quite unique, and not in a good way.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
Fair enough
We can talk about other players and make comparisons all we like, but the bottom line is we need Evans to step up this year. I don’t like bringing up other guys as examples and I don’t like reading what some may consider “excuses” for why Evans didn’t succeed this past year. I just think it’s too easy to blame the QB’s or lack of weapons around him, while at some point Evans needs to be held accountable for not putting up bigger numbers.
Also, plenty of guys had a ton of success against Bailey/Bly last year, so I don’t like that reason for Evans struggles that game. And what I wouldn’t give for Andre Johnson on the Bills. If that guy could ever stay healthy for 16 games, he would be soooooooo good.
~K
true enough as well
In the end, if Evans doesn’t perform next season, none of this banter will matter. I really just believe that Evans can be an integral part of a perennial contender. Man if Hardy pulls through…..
On a related note, when I was looking at all the #2 receivers on other squads I simply couldn’t understand how Josh Reed was allowed to play that role so often. Wow, I love his heart and work ethic but come on Josh, do something!
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
Seriously?
Crumpler was dinged all last year and Horn hasn’t been good in 3 years. He still had good old John Joseph Harrington and friends throwing him wounded ducks.
~K
Poz - nice work man. Really nice work...
You’re the first person ever to make me re-think my stance on Evans.
thanks bro
That’s all I ask, is a reconsideration before we throw Evans under the bus. Considering your knowledge of football, I’ll take being the first person to make you re-think your stance as a compliment!
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
I can echo those sentiments as well.
by Brian Galliford on Jul 16, 2008 6:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Isaac Bruce had 74 cat. and 1000 yds receiving in 2006 and 55 catches for 733 yds last year. Joe Horn is so bad that Jerry Jones is considering him for the Cowboys this year. Chris Redman had a 90.4 QB rating last year for the Falcons in 7 games. Not bad.
OK
My Holt comment was regarding the shuffling of a QB anyways, so I’ll give you Bruce, haha.
Joe Horn is done, and has been for a while. Chris Redman played well last year, but he’s still Chris Redman!!!! There’s a reason he was out of the league for so long…
~K
Uncertainty
I rides the fence on whether or not Lee Evans can be a top WR. As you read Poz’s points and then the counter points one thing going into this season about Lee Evans is that he how a lot of uncertainty on how good he really is. Educated Bills fans differ and it is my feeling people within the organization aren’t even sure. Top 10 with top 5 potential or merely a above avg WR with speed. With that being the case why even negotiate with Lee until next year? To me it doesn’t make sense. Here are my reasons.
1. Players historically play better, report to camp in better shape during contract years. Therefore, Lee Evans should be focused for the 2008 season.#2. We can franchise Evans for ‘09, and the one year salary will not be that much of a hit.
#3. If Lee Evans is franchised then he plays basically two years in a row on ‘contract years’.
#4. In two years we will have a better idea of what we have in Hardy.
#5. This is a business and we get another year out of Evans and another year to make sure he doesn’t get injured.
#6. If Evans has a career year this year we will probably not pay him that much more at the end of the year than we would if we had to sign him now. Let his contract run.
#7. ANd my most important point. WHile I believe Peters reports to camp on his current deal, next offseason Peters comes first. He is top priority over Evans.
Basically, unless you can get Evans for a bargain or for Jerry Porter to Bernard Berrian type amounts he is not worth signing this offseason. Patience is a virtue and the Frachise tag gives the Bills some leeway to get a better idea of quite how good Lee Evans is as he must perform in ‘08.
Personally, I think Evans shows his value with a 80-85 catch 1200 yd 8-9 TD season. But if he only goes for 65 900 and 6 then maybe he just isnt worth it the money he will demand.
Very well done Poz
I am sure that OBD is screaming,”Thanks a F#@%ing lot Poz, you just cost us a few million.”
Let me start by saying I’m not frustrated with Lee Evans. I love the guy. He is a good WR and one of the best deep threats in the entire league.
Now for some small things:
Marques Colston had 28 catches for 316 yards and 5 TDs in the final four games of the season last year when Bush was out. I doubt his presence really helps Colston all that much.
I also want to point out that my list of WRs in the previous thread wasn’t intended to be a list of guys I think are “better” than Evans (even though I think they all are) and this also isn’t about the kind of numbers Evans can or can’t produce. I was trying to point out that Evans doesn’t have a similiar skill set to the best WRs in the league.
Skycap, I went nuts because you said that at some point in a couple years Evans could be a top 5 or top 3 WR and that is nuts. Also saying that Evans couldn’t catch passes over the middle because of Losman is a ridiculous overexaggeration. He completed 62.5% of his passes in 2006 which was the 9th best % in the entire league.
And this will fit in with some of my other points, but Evans wasn’t good at catching passes over the middle in college. Looking at his college stats it appears that he wasn’t much but a deep threat in college either. In his senior season he collected 64 catches in 13 games. That is hardly elite college production and it shows he wasn’t much of a possesion WR. He averaged an absurd 19.7 ypc and 13 of his 64 catches were TDs. To me that says he caught almost as many deep balls as he did shorter passes and that is a very lopsided ratio.
So getting back to my list from the other thread: The whole point was that Evans is a different kind of WR than Steve Smith and Greg Jennings are. They are great deep threats, but are great yac guys who do a lot of their damage on screens, slants and short curls and in routes.
Check out this tribute to Jennings on Youtube and you will quickly realize how he lead the league in YAC last year – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cb7t5B2×0c
And here is just a 90 second thing of Steve Smith showing what he can do after the catch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJZngdT25qY
If you type in Lee Evans at Youtube, all you are going to find are some highlights of him running fly routes.
Guys like Colston and Marshall are true possesion guys. They can get open runnning any route and that is how they are effective. CBs have to be honest with them because they can break in any direction. That is the way you rack up those 100 catch seasons. Evans couldn’t be much less like those guys.
So if Evans isn’t a good yac guy and isn’t a good possesion WR, then isn’t he primarily a deep threat? And that is essentially my entire problem with paying him like a legit number 1 receiver.
Since I believe that Evans is just a deep threat, I’m not sure how well he can perform with Trent as the QB. I really think his 2006 season was an abberation created by JP Losman. Losman looked for Evans on every play and his cannon of an arm and desire to try to throw it down the field have to be major factors of Evans’ success. I don’t believe Evans is worth 8 mil (maybe more) a year to a team that plans on running a west coast offense led by a QB that will excel with quick routes, quick reads and smart check downs.
Until somebody can make a legit argument as to why Evans is anything other than a better version of Bernard Berrian and Santana Moss, then I will view a 5-6 year 40-55 mil investment in Evans as a bad one.
And more proof of his poor possesion skills are his inconsistencies. How can anyone claim that Evans consistantly gets open when he had 7 games this year where he caught 2 or less passes and had 5 games last year with 2 or less catches.
I also don’t know where the thoughts that Evans is still young and improving are coming from. He is 27 and has been a starter for four seasons. I don’t think there has been all that much improvement over his career (even more evidence that he is just a deep threat). So why are people assuming that there is going to be a sudden improvement in his overall game? I bet there aren’t too many cases of WRs with his combination of age and experience growing into better yac or possesion guys.
Colston
Even when Bush went out, his backups (Stecker and Thomas) contributed quite a bit to the passing game – Thomas had 17 receptions in just three games, and Stecker had 12 more. They actually throw the ball to the running back, and that seems to help Colston get open! (wow, what a concept…)
Also, about Evans in college – in his senior year, the second-leading receiver (Brandon Williams) had 49 receptions for 649 yards and just 1 TD. Um… isn’t that Josh Reed’s job? Anyway, that explains why so many of Evans’ receptions went for touchdowns; nobody else on the team knew where the end zone was.
I doubt that Colston was getting open because defenses were respecting the RBs in the pass game. If anything, the RBs were probably getting open because Ds had to do so much to try and stop Colston. The truth is that Drew Brees might have the weakest arm of any starting QB in the league and he loves the check down. Colston produces because he is a great WR, not because of all the great weapons surrounding him.
You’re missing the point about Evans’ college production. I don’t care what kind of help he had, that is totally irrelevant. The point is that he was only effective going deep.
For me, this isn’t a debate about what kind of stats Evans has or can produce. It is about his inability to excel at anything other than going deep. Until someone can explain to me why he isn’t a better version of Bernard Berrian, my mind will go unchanged.
Until someone can explain to me why he isn’t a better version of Bernard Berrian, my mind will go unchanged.
Many will disagree with that comparison, but I tend to agree with it. Evans does have much better hands than Berrian though. Both are deep threats who struggle to gain YAC and perform as possession receivers.
I think Santana Moss, Jerricho Cotchery and Santonio Holmes are players in a similar mold as well…
~K
You are being picky with your stats here
“So if Evans isn’t a good yac guy and isn’t a good possesion WR, then isn’t he primarily a deep threat? And that is essentially my entire problem with paying him like a legit number 1 receiver….I believe that Evans is just a deep threat”
You have used YAC as your biggest knock against Lee Evans and seem to point to his worst games when he caught few passes as your back up for why Evans is just a deep threat. But I think if you look closely at the YAC stats you might find that maybe you have this perception because we only seem to remember the big plays from Evans, which he does spectacularly. Finally, I find it quite unfair to say that Lee Evans is a different receiver than Steve Smith and Greg Jennings and a different receiver than Brandon Marshall and Marques Colston. Perhaps it is because he is a balanced player. You do realize that to criticize Evans’ YAC ability you just compared him to the two best YAC guys in the league and then to criticize his ability to make short and intermediate catches to the two very best possession guys in the league. Let me show you what I mean. To compare YAC and be fair to Evans, because last season he was playing with a rookie going in and out of the line-up, I looked at the two year average for YAC for Lee Evans from 06 and 05 and compared them to the YAC of other great receivers in the league from 07 and 06. You might be surprised kaisertown:
Of course, the two guys you compared Evans to were head and shoulders above the rest. But guess who was third on the list? That’s right, Lee Evans. I threw into the list guys who are bigger than Evans and guys who are the same build, to cover the bases. So here’s YAC over two years with random elite targets I selected.
1.) Greg Jennings – 6.83 YAC
2.) Steve Smith – 5.47 YAC
3.) Lee Evans – 4.92 YAC
4.) Marques Colston – 4.74 YAC
5.) Terrell Owens – 4.56 YAC
6.) Roy Williams – 4.22 YAC
7.) Reggie Wayne – 3.22 YAC
8.) Larry Fitzgerald – 3.09 YAC
9.) Torry Holt – 2.64 YAC
I think that takes care of your YAC argument, I looked at it again with Lee Evans stats from the offense last year and he’s still at the top half of that list. I don’t know where you are getting that he doesn’t run well with the ball in his hands because he does. Maybe if you compare him to the two best he doesn’t stack up but that is like saying Marshawn Lynch isn’t a #1 back because he doesn’t score as much as Adrian Peterson and LaDanian Tomlinson. Also, Reggie Wayne, who is a similar type of build to Evans averages less yards per catch and less yards after the catch than Lee. That means that Evans is catching the ball and doing more with it in his hands than Wayne. Oh and Wayne had Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. I say it again, a lot of you guys are way too harsh on Lee Evans.
Finally, why don’t you think Evans can get better at 27? He’s four years in which means he is about to enter his prime, which tends to be 28-32 for receivers.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
Well
those numbers include the deep bombs where he caught it in our territory behind the D and took off. Remember that Houston game 2 years ago? He caught both his long TD’s on our side of the field if I recall correctly. Same thing with that 85 yarder against the Jets this past year.
These YAC stats are misleading because of that. I wish we could take out Lee’s long TD catches to see what his YAC is. Do you even recall him catching a short pass and picking up even 10 more yards, because I sure don’t!!!
~K
What about the other players too
By that logic, all the players stats would be skewed due to plays where they merely trotted into the endzone or caught a ball on their own side of the field and just ran away with it. Evans is a quality player, he should be signed, but I see it happening midway through the season, like Schoebel last year. [Wasn’t it in the middle of the year or at the beginning, I thought so]
This town needs an enema!
your numbers are wrong
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6772
Evans averaged a yac of 3.7 last year and 4.5 the year before and most of those came on big plays where he gets past the defense and jogs into the end zone without breaking a tackle or making anyone miss. I can’t remember Evans ever catching a short pass and making anybody miss to gain extra yards. I would love it it somebody could find a highlight of Evans doing anything other than going deep, or faking deep and doing a comeback or sideline route. It would be even better if in said highlight, Evans made someone miss a tackle and making someone miss 30 yards downfield doesn’t count. If you watch those Jennings and Smith Youtube vids, you quickly realize Evans is nothing like them.
All of the other players you listed are great possesion guys. Players like Wayne and Holt (who are both 2 inches taller than Evans) are masters at running a variety of routes. They do things that you rarely see Evans do, like catching passes in the middle of the field.
Reggie Wayne – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiVptk6×594
ridic one handed catch – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaxK0ajs5DU
Torry Holt – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1Lw3CUWgcU
It’s not that I think Evans won’t get better. He has improved a little each season and I expect him to continue to do that. But he is a one trick pony and people shouldn’t be expecting him to develop into anything more than an average WR on routes that aren’t fly routes. He hasn’t improved all that much as a possesion receiver and I don’t know why people think he would.
no numbers are right
as I explained in the above post, I used Lee Evans numbers from 06 and 05 because 07 seemed to be an unfair way to examine him considering the situation. His full four year stats for YAC are:
2004: 4.12 YAC
2005: 5.33 YAC
2006: 4.51 YAC
2007: 3.75 YAC
I think it would appear obvious that the offense last year had an effect on his play but I think YAC attacks on Evans don’t work because those numbers are definitely pretty darn good for a receiver. Like Kurupt said, I too wish there was a way to extract his deep-ball YAC numbers from those stats to see where that leaves us, but that is because I think it may surprise people.
You are making it difficult to refute your “one-trick” pony stance because you seem to want visual evidence and not statistical evidence. I tend to believe that 29 TDs, 16 yards a catch, 4.43 YAC, and 3,727 yards in four seasons with four different QBs without a legit #2 is enough to dis-spell the idea that Evans is a one trick pony. One-trick ponies simply do not put up those types of numbers in that kind of situation, especially when you consider that Evans is playing in a bad weather region, not exactly suited to his deep-ball strength. But I respect your opinion, which only makes me more determined to find clips, unfortunately the Bills are not as popular on the web as other teams. But I will try.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
my bad, I didn’t see that you picked Evans two best years instead of his most recent seasons. It’s kind of cherry-picking to use Evans’ best yac numbers in the comparison. If you take his career numbers instead, he is right in the middle of the pack.
We can find his non deep ball yac. He jogged about 40 yards after his long catch against the Jets and about 30 yards during his 70 yard TD against Miami. Evans had 206 yards after the catch last season (55 catches X 3.75 yac). Subtract the 70 yards and divide by his 55 catches and you have a yac of 2.47.
There are two reasons I need visual evidence instead of statistical stuff. The first is that yac is kind of a goofy stat and it doesn’t really tell the whole story. The second is that I feel like I have 4 years of watching Lee Evans play on sunday as my visual evidence that Evans doesn’t do anything after the catch and rarely catches the ball in the middle of the field. Youtube just confirms my memory.
I don’t see how Evans’ stats show that he is or isn’t a one trick pony. Randy Moss is primarily a deep threat too and his stats are pretty good. He is also 6’4 and better at winning jump balls and in the red-zone than Evans is.
Roddy White
On the topic of Roddy White, I just want to point out a bizzare stat – in Atlanta’s four wins, he averaged 4 receptions for 59 yards. In their 12 losses, he averaged 5.5 receptions for 80 yards. Amazingly, the Falcons lost in all five of his 100-yard games last year.
In fact, Atlanta is 0-11 when White gets over 65 yards. They’re just over .500 (19-18) when he has fewer yards in the last three years. They’re even just 2-7 when he scores a touchdown!
I’d rather have a player that helps his team win, I think…
Thanks to everybody (the three of you, more specifically) who recommended this FanPost. I’ve been meaning to try to get y’all (and to remind myself) to recommend more often.
Actions > Rec
by Brian Galliford on Jul 16, 2008 6:39 AM EDT reply actions
I have a feeling
that Evans will come out and prove his doubters wrong this year. He takes a lot of pride in his work and wants to be the best he can be. Plus, he’s playing for a new contract. I’m inclined to give the guy the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. I think we will see the real Lee Evans this season.
Get the Bills back to the big game!
Poz my friend
I finally got a chance to read this whole thing. Solid job. I must admit I was skeptical about giving Lee a big contarct, but after reading this, I’m much more inclined to do so.
You should be a sports agent. (Unless you already are, you seem like Scott Boras.)
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
That's not nice - agents are slime. Who's worse - Boras or Rosenhaus?
Actually, if I were an agent with some deep pockets, I’d pay someone to blog favorably on my clients behalf. Maybe there is an agent here; just doubt it’s Poz.. He definitely doesn’t seem slimy….
This was a great post by Poz, with some excellent give and take by the rest of the guys. You can’t get this sort of stuff hanging out by the coffee pot at work. Reading this was like watching Hagler vs Hearns…
I’m still not sold on Evans though. I want him to be something he’s not. He’s going to get paid though, whether it’s here or somewhere else; his numbers and potential dictate as much. This will be a very interesting one to watch…
Agents are slime
That is true, but they are also most likely very smart and wealthy.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Just doing my job
After getting A-Rod all that money I figured it was time to squeeze a different franchise dry, this time one that can’t afford it. Now I’m just hoping that Drew Rosenhaus isn’t on here as well, but then again I think he’ll have a tougher time making a case for Roscoe then I did for Lee Evans haha
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
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