Putting Buffalo's Schedule, Playoff Hopes in Perspective
by Brian Galliford on Jul 16, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
in Opinion
14 comments
As the beginnings of the 2008 NFL season approach, Buffalo Bills fans are more hopeful than we have been in recent memory that the Bills - who have not made a playoff appearance since 1999 - can end their playoff drought. Citing a weak schedule and improvements made to personnel in the off-season, playoff predictions and double-digit winning records are predicted by fans on nearly a daily basis.
It ain't that easy, folks.
Let's put aside the players themselves for a moment - because at this point, making an attempt to gauge just how good each individual team can be based on their off-seasons alone is quite the difficult task. It's much simpler to focus on what we already know, and that's what happened last year. That easy schedule we reference so often? It's not even the easiest schedule in the AFC East, a division so top-heavy and mediocre that beyond New England, it's a virtual crapshoot. It's also important to consider the fact that because of the NFL's scheduling, Buffalo will only play two teams this season that are exclusive from the rest of their division. That's where Buffalo could be at a disadvantage.
Breaking down the schedules
Below are the winning percentages of all sixteen opponents for each of the four AFC East teams, based on 2007 record. Records were counted twice in the case of AFC East opponents; as each team plays the others twice, it only makes sense to count those records twice.
New England: .387 (99-157)
Buffalo: .438 (112-144)
NY Jets: .457 (117-139)
Miami: .465 (119-137)
Clearly, this makes sense based on last year's standings: New England has the easiest schedule based on this system because they won the division; Buffalo finished second; and so on. That's logical. But it's also important to realize that all of these schedules are pretty easy.
All four AFC East teams will play fourteen common opponents in 2008: six games within the division; four games against all four teams from the AFC West; and four games against all four teams from the NFC West. That leaves two games for each team that are exclusive - depending on how each team finished in the standings, they'll play their equal from the AFC North and the AFC South. Here are the exclusive matchups:
New England (#1) - Pittsburgh (10-6), Indianapolis (13-3)
Buffalo (#2) - Cleveland (10-6), Jacksonville (11-5)
NY Jets (#3) - Cincinnati (7-9), Tennessee (10-6)
Miami (#4) - Baltimore (5-11), Houston (8-8)
In terms of mutually exclusive opponents, Buffalo may actually have the toughest road of any of its division rivals. Cleveland may be poised to overtake Pittsburgh for the division crown this season, and Jacksonville has the talent to finally surpass the Colts as well. The Bills could very well end up playing the division winners from both the AFC North and AFC South.
Keeping Things Realistic
It's important to understand that, even playing in the weak AFC East, the Bills have a brutal uphill climb if they're going to make the playoffs. They'll have to overcome youth on the field, and they'll have to overcome arguably the most difficult schedule within the division. They've got a fight on their hands just to finish second in the division.
It seems highly likely at this point that they'll do that. The Bills swept both the Jets and the Dolphins last season, and while both of those teams have made significant improvements in the off-season, the Bills still seem ahead of them - if only slightly - at this point. Even if they do finish there again, they'll be fighting some excellent teams for playoff spots. At this point, there are four teams that potentially stand in their way, and more can certainly be added to the list: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. At least two of those teams will be going to the playoffs as likely division winners. There are only two wild card spots in the AFC; the remaining two teams on that list are considered the most serious wild card contenders at this point.
Don't forget about teams like Tennessee (who made the playoffs last season), Houston, and Denver, either. Those are teams who are likely to be right in the same area as Buffalo, pushing for wild card spots.
It's the end of the off-season, with training camp just around the corner. Optimism is high. It's important to feel good about our favorite team - and by and large, I do. This is the most talented Buffalo Bills team, on paper, that I've seen in quite some time. But playoff predictions from the fan base are premature. This team is on the right track. But a healthy dose of reality dictates that there is still a lot of ground to cover for this team before the playoffs become a reality. Let's just hope that they can cover that ground in one season.
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Schedule
I for one think the schedule is great. Overall, I believe the AFC South is the toughest divsion in the AFC, and the AFC West is the weakest. We play the West. I believe the NFC East, South, West, Central is the order in the NFC. Therefore, we play the 2nd weakest NFC division and weakest AFC division of the 3 we can play.
The schedule has done so many favors I dont know where to start. How about looking at the 8 home games. 4 of those home games have teams traveling completely across the country (SD, Seattle, SF, and Oakland). Then we get what might be the most evenly matched opponent Cleveland at home on Monday night (best home field adv you could ask for). Also, I am not sold on Cleveland as I am still question whether Jamal can run hard 2 seasons in a row and if Anderson is the real deal, also Cleveland could have the worst secondary in pro football. To add on top of it we get the Pats week 17 in Blo. If there is any week the Pats might not need the win it would be Week 17. Oh, and just b/c our home schedule wasn’t advantagous enough the SD game is a trap game for the Bolts as they have the Pats the week bf and Europe the week after.
On to the road schedule. Yes, Denver and KC are tough places to play but how good will either team be remains to be seen. I’d be pleased with a split on those 2 games. Our postseason hopes might hinge on the fact that we can once again beat both NYJ and Miami on the road. But the fact we travel to Miami, NY and NE is a given. Ok, so Jax on the road will be a tough game and probable loss. But I love the fact that the back to back road games against ST. L and Zona are followed by a bye. Gives the guys a reason to truly focus knowing they will get a week off. I’d like to think we can win at least 3 maybe 4 of the 6 winnable road games. Got to say Jax and NE will most likely be losses. On a side note I am not sold on Jax either if the run D is better. Garrard does not scare me at all and Jerry Porter does not worry me, Fred Taylor is a year older, and the D lost Stroud and I am not willing to say there 2 DEs they drafted in rnd 1 & 2 will be ready to make a significant impact by week 2, but regardless I’ll say winning in Jax is unlikely.
Overall, I have to think our home record should be 6-2 or 7-1. NYJ, Mia, SF, Oak should be wins. Then I’d like to think we should go 3-1 or 2-2 against Seattle (opening day), Clev (Monday night), SD (trap game), NE (week 17), mainly based on how great each of those spots are for the Bills. Therefore, if we can go 4-4 or even 3-5 might do it, on the road the playoffs and 10 wins are in sight.
by Berg79 on Jul 16, 2008 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind that 10 wins didn’t get Cleveland into the post-season last year, and the AFC on the whole is better this year.
by Brian Galliford on Jul 16, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hopefully
that might translate into more losses scattered here and there. If the whole conference is better on the whole maybe that could translate to more teams with 8, 9 and 10 wins and less teams with 12,13,14 and 5,6, and 7 wins. Which, now that I think about it, could be better or worse for us depending on your view of the Bills.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Jul 16, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't Help It - 10 & 6
Brian – your points may be spot on, but there’s no way I’m coming down from this cloud until mid-November / early-December.
by Optimist on Jul 16, 2008 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you would have to think
that if buf can pull out the games that we lost by 3 or less points (denver, etc…), this season we would be a serious upset threat come playoff time
this is just wishful thinking but why not be optimistic this time of year
and I can’t wait for Poz to tear some ones head off…you know he is itchin to just level some one
by Lion Alum on Jul 16, 2008 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Other matchups
Lets be honest. Assuming the Pats win the division the Bills must finish #2 in the division. The fact that we play the 4 AFC West opponents gives us a real good chance to own any tiebreaker against the West #2. Therefore, if we finish #2 and beat the West #2 then we must be better than 1 of the #2’s in the Central or SOuth. For now assume that no division will have 3 teams make the playoffs although I do conceed this is a possibility.
So we have the AFC North playing 4 games against the AFC South. That is great for us as I believe the AFC South and AFC North have 7 of the top 10 teams in the conference (Baltimore being the exclusion). Also, the AFC North has to play the NFC East which is very tough this year. If you go and look at the AFC North’s schedule (at least preseason) it just looks brutal. Clevland has a schedule outside their division of 10 games against these teams. Indy, Jax, Houston, TN, Dallas, Giants, Skins, Eagles, Broncos and us. Pittsburg has the Pats and Bolts as oppose to the Bills and Broncos.
I do not see the #2 out of the Central having any better than 9-7. Same with the AFC West where other than the Bolts I dont see any team better than 8-8. Therefore, we must concern ourselfs with the AFC South who hopefully will just beat each other up. It would see very tough for 3 of those teams to get to 10 wins. Is it possible…sure it happened last year, but it is not likely. 10 wins should get us in. Another factor is if the 3 AFC SOuth teams get to 10 wins there is a good chance they did it by sweeping the NFC Central and therefore the Bills would own a better conference record.
by Berg79 on Jul 16, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What do you mean by Central? North?
by Brian Galliford on Jul 16, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
Yes North. Detroit, GB, Viking, Bears. My bad.
by Berg79 on Jul 16, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was speaking about the first Central…
I do not see the #2 out of the Central having any better than 9-7. Same with the AFC West where other than the Bolts I dont see any team better than 8-8.
by Brian Galliford on Jul 16, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of things have
to go right in order for the Bills to make the playoffs, but a lot of other teams are in that boat, too. Hopefully the injury bug bites a different team this year. Hopefully Jason Peters’ situation is resolved amicably. Hopefully our young talent catches fire and lights up the scoreboard (for Buffalo). Hopefully Turk is a better play-caller than SF-M ;). I could go on, but you get the idea.
Let’s hope that everything pans out right for the Bills this season.
Get the Bills back to the big game!
by Blitz on Jul 16, 2008 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
AFC North
I do not see the #2 From the AFC North (Clev, Pitt, Cinci Balt) having better than a 9-7 based on the schedules.
Sorry, I still think back to when there were 3 divisions per conference when making references.
by Berg79 on Jul 16, 2008 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ha, I know it, I still say “Central” all the time. Even X years after the fact, it messes with my brain. :)
by Brian Galliford on Jul 16, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our Schedule
is about as good as it can get. The only way it gets better is if we can play Miami more often. Our season, IMO, rests on three unpredictable factors.
1. Jelling. I think our D will be fine, barring injury to a main man. Poz seemed to fit in quickly last year. If McKelvin adjusts quickly, we will be good on D. The great unpredictable factor is our O. I sincerely hope that Trent gets the ability to change the play at the line. I am still not at all convinced that DJ will call a game plan that is designed to CRUSH our opponent. He seems to relish the prevent D and, as an inventor of it, the prevent O. His middle name should be “timid”. If our O jells early, watch out! We could score a lot. Jason must play too. He will. I’ll be watching Hardy.
2. Game Plan. The game plan must open up and come into the present. I get very worried when I read that Joe D thinks our offensive line blocking schemes are OLD and easily defensed. What is this? This point goes along with the first somewhat. How predictable will our O plan be? Our success depends on new schemes. Go Turk! Use your players strengths and NEVER call a 4 yard pass on third and 5.
3. Cold Weather. A big key. Can Trent and the rest play better in cold weather? It wiped us out last year. The prevent O comes out more in the cold. Get used to it Trent.
IMO, we have the talent, they are simply not used to each other yet. Some are, some are not. The biggest key is DJ and his confidence. I want to see a team that WANTS to win and win big. The Seattle and Cleveland games I think are key to judging how we do. The playoffs are definitely within reach. The front office has done a good job putting a competetive team together. I love swagger. Confidence. How much do t hey want it?
by keuka121 on Jul 16, 2008 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this
is my favorite time of year. 0-0. I think anything less than 9 wins is a huge disappointment. I don’t EXPECT to make the playoffs, but I do expect the team to be there until week 17. If Michael Lombardi can pick em, a man I trust and resepect, then I am starting to believe that it is playoffs this year or a severe disappointment.
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Jul 17, 2008 3:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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