Bills will lean heavily on Lynch, Jackson in '08
When he was hired as the new offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills this past January, Turk Schonert promised to get Buffalo's two running backs, particularly Marshawn Lynch, more involved in the team's offensive attack.
If that turns out to be true, Lynch and his running mate, Fred Jackson, are in for very busy 2008 seasons.
Jackson made a name for himself in '07 while filling in for an injured Lynch, who missed three games, and he remained a part of Buffalo's offense even after Lynch returned to the lineup. During the four-game stretch in which the duo played significant amounts of time together, they were, in a word, invaluable to Buffalo's (mediocre) offensive attack.
Take their combined stat lines from those four games, for instance:
Lynch, Weeks 14-17: 84 carries, 364 yards, 1 TD; 3 catches, 64 yards
Jackson, Weeks 14-17: 33 carries, 184 yards; 10 catches, 66 yards
Those numbers weren't accrued against cupcake defenses, either. Sure, Miami was involved, but Cleveland, the Giants and Philadelphia were all very solid teams. These two players combined for 130 touches between them in those four games (an average of 32.5 per game combined), and now, with the hiring of Schonert, we're expecting more from this duo. Between the two, assuming they're both healthy for the entire '08 season, the duo could combine for 35-40 touches per game. That's a very, very high total.
What's most important to realize about this duo is that with Jackson playing the role of complement, Lynch was far more effective, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and a whopping 21 yards per reception (a number that certainly would have dwindled had he been more involved as a receiver). During the 9 games Lynch played without a steady complement, he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and 8 yards per reception.
Let's extrapolate those four-game numbers for a healthy 16-game season for each player. Clearly there will be some fluctuations based on the new offensive system, but even without factoring that into the equation, some of these numbers are staggering:
Lynch Extrapolated: 336 carries, 1456 yards
Jackson Extrapolated: 132 carries, 40 receptions
Is it really fathomable that these two players could touch the ball that many times this season? In short, yes. Considering the dearth of talent the Bills have at the tight end position, Buffalo's running backs are expected to pick up some of the slack in the short-area passing game. It seems far-fetched, but looking at last year's small sample, this duo should surpass 500 combined touches quite easily.
When you have two good players at one position, there can sometimes be mutiny over playing time. But by all accounts, Lynch and Jackson have a good relationship. They'd better; they're bound to be on the field at the same time in 2008 for stretches. When you have good players, use them - but not at the expense of sacrificing touches for your other skill players. Schonert's biggest task will be getting Lynch and Jackson their touches without taking them away from guys like Lee Evans, James Hardy and Roscoe Parrish.
Two-headed rushing duos are hard to game plan for. It looks like the Bills have a good one that they'll be able to use throughout the entire 2008 season. Time will tell, however, just how big a part of Buffalo's offense they are this season.
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Quick question
And I don’t know the answer – what was the total number of Bills’ touches last year? If Lynch and Jackson get to the extrapolated numbers, I’d guess that it would be a Fuccillo sized “HUGE” percentage of the projected total team touches for this year.
I for one wouldn’t mind them getting such a percentage. I like them as a tandem, and I don’t think I’m way off base my saying they could pair together as one of the top ten RB duos this year.
On a tangent to this fanpost – I really didn’t see the following article coming (who knew Schonert liked Barnes so much?):
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080731/SPORTS03/807310336/tbd
I imagine if Barnes is what Schonert says he is, he’ll play some, and be kind of important helping out ML & FJ.
On another tangent to that, I would think that would help Schouman out if Barnes plays a lot. If they have a blocker on the field, as in Barnes opposed to Royal, they might be more inclined to play a pass catching TE, like Schouman.
by krytime on
Jul 31, 2008 9:25 PM EDT
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Billy Fuccillo
I love that guy. He gives me tickets to games in MSG sometimes and I love him for it. I got to see Syracuse win the Big East Tourney in ‘06, right underneath the basket because of him. Good dude, and he truly is huge.
~K
by Kurupt on
Aug 1, 2008 12:57 AM EDT
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The Bills completed 263 passes and attempted 448 rushes for 711 “touches”. The average team completed closer to 325 passes and 448 rushes was basically league average.
I think 500 touches is optimistic, but possible if they both stay healthy. 500 carries is crazy. They should combine for 400+ carries and add another 60-80 catches.
Buffalo ran the ball 39 times in the blowout against Miami and it really skews the numbers if you ask me.
by kaisertown on
Aug 1, 2008 1:20 AM EDT
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Does that mean you’re not expecting to see any more blowouts this year? :)
by Brian Galliford on
Aug 1, 2008 6:37 AM EDT
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no we should see one or two, just not one every four weeks.
My prediction up there is actually VERY optimistic. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for exactly 400 carries last year.
The last team to have 500 carries in a season (not counting rushing attempts by the QB), was Pittsburg in 2005.
by kaisertown on
Aug 1, 2008 9:47 AM EDT
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Yeah, I never made the claim that they’d be getting 500 carries. 500 touches, however, seems pretty realistic (and quite a ginormous number).
by Brian Galliford on
Aug 1, 2008 9:50 AM EDT
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As i've mentioned in the other post
I think Freddie will be more heavily involved in the passing game than in the run game. I’m not sure how those numbers would truly translate to a full season because I think we used the RB’s more in those 4 games than we may normally use them. But with how Turk has been talking, I think both will have quite large workloads for their designated roles.
If both stay healthy for a full year, PLEASE, I see Lynch with 300+ carries, 40-50 catches (yes) and well over 1500 total yards. I just hope he sees the endzone more than 7 times this year. I think Freddie will end up with 75-100 rushes and another 40 or so catches. He’s a solid player, who just seems to accrue yards when he’s out there. I hope he sees the endzone this year as well….
~K
by Kurupt on
Aug 1, 2008 12:59 AM EDT
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I've seen you mention this, and I agree.
I don’t know why, but I feel Jackson will contribute more in the pass game than the run too. From what I think I saw/remember, he seemed really fluid in the pass game, from blocking to catching.
by krytime on
Aug 1, 2008 6:11 PM EDT
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Barnes will also factor into the total touches
While I don’t see him getting the 73 receptions that Tom Rathman had for the 49ers in 1989, Barnes will also be used in the passing game. Let’s say 15 – 20 receptions for him. Maybe he will see a handful of carries as well.
I think the Bills will try to keep Lynch below 300 carries in the regular season (to have him more fresh for the playoffs), so expect some of that load to fall on Jackson and maybe Wright as well.
Get the Bills back to the big game!
by Blitz on
Aug 1, 2008 11:43 AM EDT
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