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Just how "easy" is Buffalo's 2008 schedule?


  Bills second-year QB Trent Edwards (Photo Source)

They say that no schedule in the NFL is an easy schedule.  That holds especially true when a given football team is young and inexperienced at key positions - most notably quarterback.  Even with an easy schedule, that youth may not be able to capitalize on their opponent advantage.

The 2008 Buffalo Bills, however, are hoping that their young team - led by second-year quarterback Trent Edwards - can do just that in making the post-season for the first time since 1999.  In an ultra-talented conference packed with several Super Bowl contenders, these Bills can use any advantage they can muster.

Just how "easy" is Buffalo's schedule?  Let's examine...

Meet the Playoff Contenders
It is first necessary to select which teams from the AFC will be the Bills' main competition for the six coveted playoff spots.  Unfortunately, due to outstanding depth in the conference, there are ten AFC teams with realistic visions of the playoffs dancing in their brains.  Those teams are: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, New England, the Jets, San Diego and our Bills.

Yes - the entire AFC South is included in that list, because all four teams have traits that could land them in the post-season.  Ten teams vying for six playoff spots.  And, not surprisingly, these teams play each other.  A lot.

In the NFC, the teams on the whole are not as impressive, but the overall number of playoff contenders is larger.  Eleven teams - Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia, the Giants, Washington, Seattle and Arizona - are considered playoff contenders for this exercise.

SOS based on contender matchups
Which AFC team, then, has the easiest road to the playoffs?  The answer to that, of course, involves just how good each of these teams turns out to be - this experiment isn't meant to be an end-all to the playoff discussion.  The Bills are going to need to prove a lot on the field in order to make the playoffs, and in the end, the schedule might not make a bit of difference.  But on the surface of it - that is, the schedule - the Bills may not have as easy a road to the post-season as many of us believe.

Ranked below: the ten AFC playoff contenders' schedules from easiest to hardest, based on number of games against playoff contenders on their schedule, which we'll adjust for other factors (explained after the jump):

Schedules_medium

Star-divide

Clearly, there are flaws here.  For instance, no one actually believes that the Jets have an easier road to the playoffs than the Patriots simply because the Jets play one less playoff contender - that's absurd.  But even flawed, this exercise highlights some important issues that could end up hindering the Bills' chances at the post-season.

Breaking it Down
For example - the AFC South.  It's been a shoo-in for quite some time now that the Colts would take the division, leaving Jacksonville and Tennessee (on occasion) to fight for the Wild Card.  But this season, all eight of the Colts' road games are against playoff contenders; that contrasts starkly with the Jags and Titans, who play all eight home games against contenders.  Think that won't shake things up in the AFC South a little?  Think again.  The Bills may actually end up competing with Peyton Manning for a wild card slot.

It doesn't help, either, that the Jets and Pats have schedules as easy - if not easier - than the Bills.  Buffalo is done if they can't finish second in the AFC East; it's not even a given that that will happen anymore.

In the end, this proves that the Bills do have one of the easiest schedules in the AFC this season - helped out, of course, by the fact that they play the NFC West and play more of their tough games at home (5) than on the road (4).  But you can never sleep on the "easy" games in this league; that fact, combined with the scheduling intrigue of the rest of the Bills' AFC competition, makes the road much more difficult than many realize.

Can the Bills make the playoffs?  Certainly.  They're talented enough to do it; they just need to grow up quickly.  But don't make the mistake of thinking that the Bills have a shot simply because their schedule is weak.  There are key teams who have easier schedules, and there's sure to be some turmoil and change within the rest of the conference, particularly in the AFC South.  This schedule is doable, as are the playoffs.  But it's certainly not easy by any stretch of the imagination.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments

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Doesn't really matter at this point

At least not until they strap it on for real.

We can say the Dolphins, Raiders, Broncos and Rams aren’t playoff contenders, but they should all be better than last year’s teams, which means those games should be tougher than originally thought.

I’m happy we get a really banged up Seattle team early. I’m happy we get the Browns at home. I like that we don’t have to travel cross country to play at Oakland, SD, Seattle or SF, and only Arizona & Denver are long distance trips for us. I like that we get Jacksonville early too. I think that team will really hit their stride as the season approaches the midway point. I’m happy we don’t get NE after their bye.

I don’t like having our AFC East games in the second half only. I don’t like having to play Jacksonville and Cleveland, while the Jets get Tennessee and Cincinnati. Talk about lucking out. I don’t like having to go to KC and Denver, two very tough places to play regardless of how those teams are. I don’t like the four 4pm games, since it sucks to wait around all day (hopefully I have my flag football league earlier those days…).

Our schedule will be harder than the numbers show. Every game is tough and we can be beaten each week if we aren’t careful. I think we have enough talent to win 10 games this year, but even an “easy” schedule doesn’t make me overconfident

~K

by Kurupt on Aug 19, 2008 8:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, we’re “strapping it on for real” pretty soon, K… as I said, it’s not the end-all, but I definitely think it “matters”. :)

by Brian Galliford on Aug 19, 2008 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's Not just the teams we play

Oakland, Seattle, SF, and SD all go across country and the bills trips are much shorter to KC, Denver, St.L and Arizona.

Also we get SD in the trap game. They play NE the week bf and then after the Bills they travel to Europe for the Saints. We get 2 weeks for the chargers.

We get NE in Week 17.

We get Jax in week 2 when they should be missing some WR’s and still there 1st round draft pick.

We get St. L in Week 4 (Where is S. Jax)

We get a critcal tie breaker game at Bufflao Monday Night (Clev)

Again, Its not just the teams but where/when we get them.

by Berg79 on Aug 19, 2008 10:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Our need to beat NE

I know every season we say we need to beat the patriots and get the monkey off our back but based on the tight competition for those two wild card spots and the current level of our team i’d say the odds of being 9-6 entering week 17 is far beyond being 10-5.

Realistically speaking over the last few years we all knew in the back of our minds that the best we could do in our division is 4-2 with two loses to those patriots. I predict this season that our road to the playoffs will come down to having no choice but sticking it to NE and proving that this is our house and we won’t be whipped again in it.

Realistically we’ll be outmatched on almost every level, except ST of course, but I personally believe that our team has the heart to pull it off. Also I don’t see this being a game NE would sit their starters. It seams realistic that unless they have only 1 loss at that point they’ll be competing with the Chargers for homefield advantage, and based on the fact that is seams like Belichick would die before sacrificing a game, so it seems like this’ll be a legit game that’ll mean all or nothing for Buffalo

"Where else would you rather be than right here, right now?"

by ArenZimm on Aug 19, 2008 11:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree totally about needing to beat the Pats

at least once. In OUR house!!!! As the old saying goes, “ya gotta beat the best to be the best.” How true and how much does that apply to our Bills? Big-Time I’d say…… We HAVE to at a minimum split w/ NE this season if we have any hopes of making it to the PO’s this year. I firmly believe this.

As for the schedule, it is what it is, and I’ll add one more ‘old saying’, “ANY GIVEN SUNDAY any NFL team could beat any other team.” They ARE professionals after-all.

I BILLieve that this is probably the most talented team the Bills have fielded in WAY too many years and have the best chance to make it during the 2008 campagne. But 1st, they have to win the games they SHOULD win. Add in a couple of ‘surprise’ wins (splitting w/ NE for example), and I really think they have a decent legit shot at not sitting home in January watching the TV instead of being out on the field competing for that coveted prize.

I also think that if we don’t get Jason Peters back in the lineup ASAP, all of these ‘hopes’ are out the window. The OL looked pretty good w/o him in there vs the Steelers, but lets face it, the reality of that game is simple, it was the 2nd PRE-season game of the year. Vanilla schemes for one, and NOT ALL starters on the field either.

Lets keep our fingers crossed and hope that this very young, very talented team can pull off Donte’s guarentee.

GO BILLS . . .

Season Ticket Holder Sec: 312, Row: 15
"There's NO place like home when it's the Big Tree Inn"

by Pocono Bob on Aug 20, 2008 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Strength of schedule

is all based on last year’s records. While this provides a general idea of how tough a team’s schedule will be the following season, there is uncertainty in these numbers from year to year (due to a number of factors, but mostly due to player personnel changes).

Because of this, I think you can read too much into these numbers and try to split hairs in regards to whether Buffalo has an easier schedule than the Jets or New England. I will say that I think Buffalo’s schedule is easier than last year, based on the fact that they’re playing the NFC West, not the NFC East, in 2008.

You might be able to make a case for Miami having the toughest schedule in the division solely because they’re the worst team in the AFC East right now.

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Aug 21, 2008 10:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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