Bills must avoid another close loss in Week 1

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 8:39 AM EDT in Opinion

Whitner, Bills must avoid slow start (Photo Source)

Buffalo Bills head coach Dick Jauron is about to start his third season on the job; it's pretty safe to assume that he'd like the start of his third season to come off a bit differently than his first two seasons did.

The Bills have suffered slow starts to the season in each of Jauron's first two seasons with the Bills (2006 and 2007), and those slow starts have been punctuated by excruciating losses on opening weekend. The Bills are 0-2 in Week 1 under Jauron, and those two losses were by a combined three points.

Marching into New England in Week 1 of 2006, the Bills - led by J.P. Losman - nearly pulled off an upset win on the road but ultimately dropped a two-point decision, 19-17, in Foxboro. Led again by Losman in 2007, the Bills dropped a 15-14 game to Denver on a last-second field goal by (now former) Broncos kicker Jason Elam.

Two losses, three points. It's hard to expect your team to go far when the initial feeling of your season is some form of "bitter disappointment".

Losman - who started both games - may be the culprit. Quarterback play has been mediocre at best on Buffalo's two opening days under Jauron. Take away a touchdown fumble return by London Fletcher in '06 and a punt return for a score by Roscoe Parrish in '07, and Buffalo's offense has scored only 17 points in those two losses. It was a safety by Losman that led to New England's win in '06, and Losman's 14/21, 97-yard, 1 INT performance last season left the door open for Elam's heroics as time expired. Losman's QB rating over those two games? A dismal 72.3.

Now, Losman is (hopefully... and just for luck, knock on wood) out of the picture for this game, as Trent Edwards will make his opening day debut for the Bills as they take on the Seattle Seahawks this coming Sunday. It's safe to say that Buffalo's defense can at least come close to replicating their opening day success against a Seahawks team that is banged up, especially at the wide receiver position. This team will only go as far as Edwards' consistency takes them, and he'll need to be rather un-Losman-like for the Bills to break their disturbing opening day trend.

Slow starts are never a good thing in the NFL, and perhaps for the first time in Jauron's tenure, the Bills have an opening week game that they should win. But for a team with playoff aspirations, "should" isn't enough. I think "must" covers it. Edwards must outperform Losman's track record by a considerable margin. Jauron must find a way to close out a close game in Week 1. The Bills must win this game. Without a Week 1 "W", this could turn into a long 2008 season for Buffalo.

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The Bills have a new OC and a new playbook

and likely do not really know what they have yet on offense – except that Turk appears to be able to put his players in a position to succeed and move the ball down field unlike Fairchild, who seemed to play not to lose…so conservative and predictable – which put the Bills near the bottom of the league barrel on offense.

by LGB on Sep 1, 2008 9:21 AM EDT 0 recs

openers

Has the NFL ever made a ruling on what exactly their justificationwas for the phantom holding call in the Patriots* opener in 2006? Taking away the Whitner interception return in the 4th quarter was completely crooked and it was basically swept under the rug seconds after it occurred…what a joke….Besides Jauron’s first two excrutiating openers, we’ve seen several other mind boggling heartbreakers in recent years in Buffalo- the Ernest Wilford no feet in bounds opener in 2004 and the Chad Morton overtime kickoff return touchdown in 2002 immediately come to mind as well…two mind numbing 8 hour rides home to Philly followed both games…We have to come out sharp this week against a west coast team playing a 1:00 game in the east…there’s no excuse not to…i don’t even want to think about what another heartbreaking loss in the opener would mean for the 2008 season.

Never forget 56-10. Revenge.

by SuperFan82 on Sep 1, 2008 9:38 AM EDT 0 recs

whitner INT

that play still chaps my arse. What a play that was totally taken away by a garbage holding call. How sweet would that have been…but I digress

Brian, I could not agree with you more that this is a “MUST” win. It is week 1, at home, Seahawks banged up, and this is THE SEASON. It is time to rise up to the challenge. The way this season is different, is if the BILLS do score points on Offense. The reason they lost to NE and Denver by 1 and 2 points, is because of the conservative, crappy offense of SF-M. Now, with a new OC, a new QB hopefully they run an 7 yard pass on 3rd and 6 instead of trying to fool em with a draw.

6 days away and this is for sure a MUST win. It is absolutely criticial to this season’s success. ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL????

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Sep 1, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

Very long Brian, Very Long!!

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Sep 1, 2008 10:08 AM EDT 0 recs

Very long?

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

My biggest fear for this game

The Bills jump out to a 14 point lead by the middle of the 3rd quarter. Dick Jauron then proceeds to take the foot off the gas and play “run-out-the-clock” which ultimatley leads to the Seagulls getting back into the game.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 1, 2008 11:15 AM EDT 0 recs

I'm a Jauron Fan ...

… but if he starts costing us wins that way, then we’ll know he can’t get us to the promised land.

by MrFurious1 on Sep 1, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

If you are winning by 14 pts,

there is no reason to get greedy and try to make it a 28 pt lead. I mean, I wouldn’t blame him for running the clock down.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Sep 1, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

If the run game is doing well, you stick with it and suck down the clock. If we can do that, and STILL score points, then I am happy.

The Bills CAN win every game

by killascript on Sep 1, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

that defines playoff teams

If you can establish a lead and then run clock and still score you are ready for the playoffs. I’m excited to find out.

McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year

by poz on Sep 1, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Dick’s M.O. has been to stick with the running game in those situations even if the run game has been bad all game, and that is what worries me.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 1, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

There’s nothing wrong with implementing a little short passing strategy late in the game to catch your opponents off guard. Throwing a pass on on first or second late in the game when you’re winning shouldn’t be a sin. I thought everyione here was SICK of being predictable. I agree with you that we’ve played too close to the vest in the fourth quarter of games we’re winning. There’s ,of course, obvious situations when the best thing to do is kill most of the time left on the clock. However, there’s also times when you can “catch” your opponents off guard by using some bread and butter pass plays. The Andre Reed crossing route used to be a good example of this late in games.

by jj24 on Sep 1, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

exactly

running the ball to kill the clock is a great stratagey when you can run the ball, but if the other team is crowding the line then it’s time to make them pay.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 1, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

So you weren’t one of the guys blasting the deep ball to Evans at the end of the Broncos game last season?

by Ron From NM on Sep 1, 2008 9:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

I didn’t get to watch that game, so no. However…

There’s nothing wrong with implementing a little short passing strategy late in the game to catch your opponents off guard

and..

There’s ,of course, obvious situations when the best thing to do is kill most of the time left on the clock. However, there’s also times when you can "catch" your opponents off guard by using some bread and butter pass plays.

Both of those comments by jj24 above, are more of what I’m talking about. The play to which you refer doesn’t fit either of those as it was neither wise, nor short.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 2, 2008 6:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

How much freedom will Edwards receive at the line?

I think a large key to the conservatism in the second half with a lead will be how much freedom Edwards is given by Schonert (and by extension Jauron) to audible.

If Edwards is given this freedom even with a late lead, we could see the end of those agonizing last-second losses.

Keep in mind, though, that the defensive philosophy has to change as well. Look at the Dallas game (the only game I saw because I live in North Dakota). Yes, if the offense had scored, it would have seriously helped, but the defensive philosophy, which had killed Dallas all game, was dramatically switched to the dreaded “prevent” defense for the Cowboys’ last two scoring drives. This philosophy has to change to overcome more last-second losses.

by thefourwinds on Sep 3, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

No Way I Can Call A Week 1 Game A Must

The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. We should win this game, but a loss would not be devastating. In the past, this team could not afford to lose to poor teams (and Seattle’s not a poor team) because they simply could not compete with the very good teams. Those games were almost certain losses. I don’t think that’s the case this year. I think they “can” beat anyone – including NE. I didn’t say should beat everyone, but I do think they can and will beat some good teams. That’s why I’m not putting too much weight on week 1. I do think they will win this week.

by MrFurious1 on Sep 1, 2008 11:16 AM EDT 0 recs

check out the Bills schedule

5 of the first 6 games are not gimmies. Seattle, and Jacksonville for the first 2 weeks could very well be 2 losses. Oakland should be a win, then @ Arizona, @St.Louis, and San Diego are all tough games. It is very possible that the Bills start out 1-5. A win vs. Seattle goes a long way. I wouldn’t call it a must win, but it’s pretty damn close.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 1, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

If these Bills lose to Oak, Ariz, and StL., then they don’t deserve to be in the playoff talk.

by the Skycap on Sep 1, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

I don’t think they will lose to Oakland, that was the 1 in the 1-5 in my example.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 1, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

St.Louis is worse than Oakland…they might have pick numero uno next year

The Bills CAN win every game

by killascript on Sep 1, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

1-5?

for once we don’t have a brutal schedule. If we’re going to believe in this team lets believe in this team. If we can’t come out of the first six games with at least a 3-3 record then we weren’t as good as we thought. Good teams are not afraid of St. Louis, Arizona or Oakland.

McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year

by poz on Sep 1, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

No, he was saying games one thru five, not that we’d be 1-5.

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Oh wait… never mind. You’re right. Yeah, if the Bills start 1-5, I’ll hurt something for fun. (I kid. I think.)

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

I believe we are better then those team. I’m just saying that they aren’t gimmies.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 1, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah… what sireric said.

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Is it just me...

This is a Must Win.

If they want to be taken seriously, they must win this game. Seahawks are a good team…but whether or not their banged up…I believe the Bills are the better team.

I only see Jacksonville a challenge. They should be sitting very high before the bye week.

And The NFC teams…are….NFC teams. C’mon now….those are almost gimmes.

If the Bills start 1-5….the rebuilding process should restart again for the next 3 years.

by Scoe221 on Sep 1, 2008 12:43 PM EDT 0 recs

Arizona and St.Louis BOTH ON THE ROAD are not gimmies. anybody would be foolish to look past them.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Sep 1, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

I thought every game was a must win....

At least it is in my book.

by MonStarr_716 on Sep 2, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

They have sixteen winnable games...

A week one loss is disappointing but not a disaster. The complexion of the season will ebb and flow. A three game win streak at any time puts you in the mix. I think you “must winners” are more worried about YOUR psyche than the reality of the true impact of a week 1 loss.

by MrFurious1 on Sep 1, 2008 1:47 PM EDT 0 recs

You can take that viewpoint, but think about it from a players’ perspective. You’re all jacked up for the season, riding Whitner’s playoff guarantee – then you drop a close one in your home opener to a team you can beat. That’s going to sap some serious morale out of even the most resilient of teams, and their next game is in Jacksonville. We CANNOT start this season out 0-2.

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

4-1 at the bye?

Buffalo has a realistic shot at being 4-1 at the bye. No, it’s by no means a guarantee but the Bills should be able to beat the Seahawks, Raiders, Rams and Cardinals. The Seahawks are injury riddled, the Raiders are talented in key spots but have line issues, the Rams just have issues, and the Cardinals aren’t any better than on the same level as Buffalo. Jacksonville? Well, the Jags aren’t on Buffalo’s level and I expect to see them run (though not for as many yards as last time) all over the Bills.

by Ron From NM on Sep 1, 2008 2:48 PM EDT 0 recs

Let’s not forget the Marcus Stroud factor the 2nd week of the season. If/when the Bills beat the Seahawks, this team will play their heart out and try to win this game for big Marcus.

by the Skycap on Sep 1, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

yea

i agree with that. I hope to see Stroud and the D-Line smacking around the Jags

McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year

by poz on Sep 1, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

The cards are a great match-up

Our longest road trip, tough receivers, seasoned veteran RB, and a team that wants to contend for their division. The other should-win games (Rams, Raiders) seem straight forward. Jacksonville was the most fun team to watch in last years playoffs, but they have a few minor holes. That would make for quite a victory. But the Seattle game is the most important game since the Browns (I can’t wait,) and I put it in the must win category. What can I say? I have the disease.

by thurman on Sep 1, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Practice Squad

I’m all for trying to keep the guys that was with you from the beginning, but if there is better talent out there then why not ty to bring them in the fold. I mean is Corey Mace a better prospect at DT than Dre Moore. There has to be better offensive line prospects out there than Dustin Dickenson, “turnstile” Estes, or Robert Felton. By the way, how is Duke Preston still on the roster? Do your homework OBD and get us some players.

by the Skycap on Sep 1, 2008 2:57 PM EDT 0 recs

Duke Preston actually had a really solid pre-season, Skycap. I’m glad he’s still on the team – though, if he’s there next year, that’s an entirely different matter.

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

There has to be a better option out there on the waiver wire than Duke Preston. Doug Datish was a highly sought after talent out of Ohio State. Why not put him on your practice squad?

by the Skycap on Sep 1, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Because Preston’s been here, he knows the system and the coaches, and his play hasn’t been awful. Why throw that away – plus his versatility – for a guy who used to have upside? Sitting tight is the smarter business move and it’s also the smarter football move.

Next off-season, the Bills need to make O-Line depth a priority.

by Brian Galliford on Sep 1, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

A few things I like

The starting D has been solid through the preseason even being vanilla, and the O has shown signs of being blessedly far more diverse. Though going “far” from the Fairchild version doesn’t take a whole lot of work.
Hasselbeck has taken less snaps in the preseason that Edwards, and while it could sure be argued that he needs them less, I don’t expect him to be in great form.
His receivers will be a game time “Who dat?” add a couple D suspensions; as Ron pointed out a real long flight and doubtless raucous opening day Ralph don’t bode well for the Blue Man Group. I can see the much maligned Kelsay reaping the Stroud double team rewards and a rookie Seattle right tackle, maybe a sack/strip/fumble, a pedestrian but efficient O outing, good field position via ST and a 27-13 Bills win.

by LeClaireBill on Sep 1, 2008 3:38 PM EDT 0 recs

if we can score

27 points in a game I will be ecstatic. It will mean we have finally become a real team again! I’m sure it was in my head, but I’ve felt like I’ve seen too many 13 point outings over the last year and half.

McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year

by poz on Sep 1, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up 0 recs