McFadden, Bush to test Bills' revamped Run D
In 2007, stopping the run was the Achilles' heel of the Buffalo Bills. Despite its best efforts to claw their way back into the playoff race, Buffalo's inability to shut down the run (along with inconsistent quarterback play) ultimately dashed those dreams last season. Opponents ended the season averaging 4.4 yards per rush against the Bills, and the team's final record was 7-9.
2008, however, has started off a bit differently. The Bills have won two straight games, and with a win this coming Sunday against the Oakland Raiders are poised to start a season 3-0 for the first time since 1992. Ed. note: I was seven years old. Buffalo spent their off-season attempting to upgrade their run defense, and thus far it's paid off: the Bills are giving up just 3.8 yards per rush, and their 91.5 rush yards allowed per game is much lower than the 124.6 they gave up in 2007.
This unit has been tested, too; they passed the test of shutting down Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor in Jacksonville in last week's big road win. The unit is legitimate. But they face another unique challenge this Sunday in the formidable Raiders rushing duo of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.
Raiders one-dimensional, yet still explosive
To underestimate this duo simply because of the team they play for (to say the Raiders are "dysfunctional" is an understatement) would be a grievous error. Just look at the numbers: in his first two professional games, McFadden has compiled 210 yards on just 30 carries. Yes, folks, that's seven yards per rush - double the 3.6-yard average that Buffalo's own Marshawn Lynch has established to date. Bush did not register a carry in Week 1, but when Justin Fargas went down with a groin injury in Week 2 (he won't play in Buffalo), Bush responded with 90 yards, a 5.6 yard-per-carry average and a touchdown of his own.
McFadden and Bush - Raiders draft picks in '08 and '07 respectively - were highly touted backs coming out of college for a reason. McFadden has a chance to transform into one of the league's most explosive offensive weapons; he's on that path already. Bush has recovered from a devastating knee injury he sustained in his final college season nicely; at 245 pounds, he's got a Jerome Bettis quality to him. Now they have an opportunity to establish themselves as one of - if not the - most talented rushing duos in the league.
Keep in mind, also, that these two backs have put forth these eye-popping numbers with no help from their quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, and the passing game. Russell's QB rating on the year is a respectable 84.9, but most of the solid stats he accrued in the team's opening-week loss to Denver (180 yards, two scores, no picks) came in garbage time as Denver was icing a 41-14 victory. Last week in a 23-8 win over the Chiefs, Russell completed 6 of 17 passes for a paltry 55 yards. To say the Raiders are one-dimensional is an understatement.
Oakland's likely Sunday rushing strategy
The Bills are a well-coached football team, and their strategy on Sunday to beat the Raiders is a simple one: stop the run and force Russell to beat you. If Russell is forced to throw the ball at least 25 times, the Raiders are toast - it's as simple as that. The problem, obviously, is making that happen on the field. Don't expect the Raiders to attack Buffalo's defensive line with the run. The Bills boast an excellent defensive tackle rotation with four solid run-stoppers in Marcus Stroud, Kyle Williams, Spencer Johnson and John McCargo. The Raiders aren't likely to attack that group, especially with MLB Paul Posluszny backing them up.
In their first two games, the Raiders have spent the majority of their time attacking the edges of opposing defenses. What's more, they've rarely attacked defensive ends in the run game to this point. Just 24.6% of their run plays have attacked the interior line to date; the majority of their runs have come to the outside. 45.8% of their rushes attack left end/left tackle, while the remaining 30.5% are to right end/right tackle. The Raiders have athletic backs and an athletic line, and they've put them to use thus far.
So the onus on stopping the run won't be on the tackles and the middle linebacker; it will be on the outside linebackers and the defensive backs. Considering the Bills missed a dozen tackles (seven in the offensive backfield) in their win over Jacksonville, this is a bit concerning. Aligned on the right side of the defense (the side that Oakland has attacked most frequently by far), LB Keith Ellison is sure to be a target. Players such as Kawika Mitchell, Terrence McGee, Ashton Youboty, Jabari Greer, Ko Simpson and Donte Whitner will be heavily involved in stopping the run this week, based on the Raiders' tendencies. Considering the talents of the Raiders' two backs (not to mention the size of them), great tackling from Buffalo's back seven is a must in this matchup.
How to beat the Raiders
Buffalo is going to load the box with defenders. Considering the fact that Russell has struggled and the Raiders' receiving corps hasn't been at all helpful to their young quarterback, don't be surprised to see as many as nine Bills defenders in the box for the majority of Sunday. They're going to dare Russell to beat them, because the chances of the young quarterback doing it in Buffalo are slim.
The other way to neutralize Oakland's running game is to get off to a fast start. It's not exactly rocket science, but if the Bills get out to an early lead, the Raiders - a young team with a young coaching staff - will try to get back into it quickly. Go for the jugular early, and the jugular will expose itself quickly. The easiest way to dispose of the Raiders is to go for the quick kill, and as football is the ultimate team sport, Buffalo's offense could end up being the key to its run defense on Sunday.
But don't underestimate the importance of shutting down McFadden and Bush. They took over and dominated an NFL game by themselves last week. I don't care if it was "just the Chiefs", as I've heard all week. It was an incredible showing, and the Bills are quite right to not take the tandem lightly. Quickly snuffing out this duo should lead to a Bills victory, but by no means will it be an easy task.
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True enough...
but I think you mean Michael Bush, not Reggie Bush.
by thefourwinds on Sep 19, 2008 8:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Crap… I KNEW I was going to do that.
by Brian Galliford on Sep 19, 2008 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i concur
Stopping the run is key, but I’m more interested in seeing how Edwards leads this offense for a 3rd consecutive week. I want to see progressions. I want to see the running game get established…have Lynch top 100 yards, and for play action to open up a deep shot to Evans. This is a test to see if this offense is legit and if it can orchestrate touchdowns versus an inferior opponent that doesn’t know how to win. I have concerns with this game. Being at home will help, but I think it will be a struggle for the Bills.
I’m predicting 17 – 10 in favor of the Bills in a dog fight that isn’t pretty
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Sep 19, 2008 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bring it
Turf Toe, Michael Bush, whatever…The Radiers are going to run 75% of the time so we need to be on point. I think we will do a good job, especiially at home with all the momentum we’re facing. Besides my original score prediction of 31-10, I expect Poz to have his break out game, Whitner to make plays as well
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on Sep 19, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the Bills feel they have a unique opportunity this week in that they can seperate themselves from another AFC team and all but guarantee a coaching change if they embarrass the Raiders. Winning as many AFC games is paramount if this team is to make the playoffs and they know that.
If a rookie receiver (Eddie Royal) can embarrass DeAngelo Hall like that I believe Turk will put Lee Evans in position to do the same. I’m seeing a big game for Lee.
I’m looking for a big win, 30-13 ..
by gatornation on Sep 19, 2008 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Run DMC
I see the Raiders trying to run the ball right at Schobel/Ellison. Plan on seeing a lot of Ryan Denney and Bryan Scott this game.
by the Skycap on Sep 19, 2008 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
NO FEAR !!!!
I have no fear of the Raiders. The Bills will have to beat themselves, a la the classic trap game. I don’t see that happening. The Bills have not had enough success to be cocky, and it doesn’t really seem to fit the Bills personality. Who would you say is the cockiest Bill? Anyway, the Bills seem to have the edge in every category. Run DMC is their only weapon, and we all know what happens to a good RB who does not have a QB…8 plus in the box. The Bills offense should explode in this game. Hall is struggling in coverage, and he is supposed to be the Raiders best CB. Look for the Bills to spread them out on offense. Evans will YAC all over the Raiders and force the Bills to work out a new deal before the bye. Hell…. expect career days from Evans, Edwards, Lynch, and Hardy. I expect the Bills to score early and put pressure on Russell to try to win the game throwing. Keys to the game. On offense, Peters vs Burgess. If Edwards has the time to throw, it will get ugly fast for the Raiders. On Defense, Kelsay and Ellison vs Run DMC. If the Bills can funnel him to the inside, the running game for the Raiders will be shutdown. The wildcard is Russell. The Bills must not let him beat them with his legs. Will the Bills use Whitner to spy on Russell? It is statement time for the Bills. The Bills crush the Raiders 35 – 10 and give Alf Davis the straw to break Kiffin’s back.
Also, love the Edwards interview on NFL Live.
by Joe P. on Sep 19, 2008 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
haha, nice
That’s some true optimism there….career days from 4 guys!!! The Raiders D is solid enough, so I’m not expecting those career games, well I guess Hardy won’t have to do much for a career game. I can guarantee Evans won’t have a career game (remember Houston circa ‘06?). I agree that scoring early is going to be key. Teams in turmoil usually fold when bad things happen early. Personally, I think this week we run it pretty well, but don’t pass it as well as the first 2 weeks. It’s not that I think our passing game will be stopped per se, but I think we’ll have a lot more success running it and won’t need to rely on Trent as much. If that’s the case, we’ll be fine….
Alf Davis? Typo or Awesomeness?
~K
by Kurupt on Sep 19, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Career day for Hardy is what? 4 catches 50 yards and a TD?
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Sep 19, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said it wouldn't be easy!!!!
Although, K is right about Evans….still…could happen!
by Joe P. on Sep 19, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 catches for 13 yards and a TD is a career day
~K
by Kurupt on Sep 19, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was giving him a little credit, figuring he would do better then the minimum.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Sep 19, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think our run D has been even better than those numbers indicate. Toss out the Julius Jones scrub time runs against our prevent D (6 for 44 yards) and we’re at 42 runs for 139 yards, or 3.31 ypc. Heck, Jacksonville got there best runs from David Garrard on scrambles, so we can even throw that in if we’d like. Take out his 6 for 32 yards as well, and we’re down to 36 runs for 107 yards, or 2.97 ypc. Nice….
With that said, I think Oakland will run it better than either of our first two opponents. McFadden is probably the best RB we’ll have faced to date and Bush will be the first big power back, as well. I’ve been impressed with McFadden, I thought he was pretty much a home run threat only. I didn’t realize he’d be so good at simply picking up the tough yards, even if they aren’t there. I’ve been surprised by his power and interior running. If he remains healthy, and Oakland doesn’t implode too much more, he could have a GREAT season assuming he ends up with the majority of the carries….
This is where we need our LB’s to step up, especially Ellison as you stated. He’s been non-existent thus far, which is good and bad, but we really need him to step up this week. I believe the Raiders, if they are smart, will be attacking his side all game long. It’s time for him and his running mates to really show what they’re capable of this year. Good litmus test this week, at least against the run.
Also, Whitner needs to really be stout on the line this week. He’s been good thus far, we may need great this week.
Paging Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay. 1 or 2 plays a game is not going to cut it……
~K
by Kurupt on Sep 19, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How to beat the Raiders:
1) Show up.
2) Don’t suck.
3) Profit!!!
As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead
by JohnHannahRules on Sep 19, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do not . . .
. . . underestimate Darren McFadden. I watched that dude put up 323 on the ground in ONE GAME in college when Arkansas dominated my precious Cocks, it was bad. Bush is his new “Jones” so I wouldn’t underestimate that either. The good thing is none of us are NFL coaches so I’m sure the ol’ ball coaches have addressed these issues and beat them to death already. I am not worried about the Raiders O as long as our D is good as it appears to be going into week 3.
by uscBillsGamecock on Sep 19, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Three keys to sunday
1- A fast start, I expect the Bills to come out winging the ball all over the field to get a few quick early scores. For 2 straight weeks now the highly overated DeAngelo Hall has been burned by opposing teams WRs, I expect Turk and Co. to go for his and the Raiders throat early on Sun.
2- Contain Bush and McFadden, I honestly don’t think we can stop them entirely, but if we can keep them under 150 combined yards and say a TD or 2, the Defense has done its job, make JaMarcus “StayPuft” Russell beat you.
3- Go for the KILL early, I mean every time theres a shot downfield, take it no matter what, every time your on their side of the field, go for it on 4th down. I mean make these guys play balls to walls on D for the first three quarters. If this is done right, we can have a nice 20-30 point cushion going into the late 3rd, early 4th quarters and can then just pound the rock all day.
Fear the mighty helmet wearing gopher, he is coming for your soul....
by WABillsfan on Sep 19, 2008 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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