Too early for Bills, fans to think playoffs
The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 for the first time since 1992, and with an upcoming matchup against the St. Louis Rams, many fans and experts are eagerly awaiting the Bills' fourth consecutive victory to start the 2008 season. Comparisons are being made between this year's Bills team and great Bills teams of yesteryear, with 1992's Super Bowl runner-up the popular choice.
Boy, that makes me nervous. On all counts.
How crazy is it to believe that the Bills are on the verge of ending their franchise-long eight-year playoff drought? It's not crazy at all. Under the league's current playoff format, 77.4% of teams that start the season 3-0 make the playoffs (72 of 93 teams). Those are much shorter odds than the suddenly resurgent Bills have faced in years.
The Bills sit alone atop the AFC East for the first time since Week 2 of the 2003 season (immediately following their 31-0 drubbing of the New England Patriots on opening day). With Tom Brady out of the picture for the season, the Bills have a legitimate chance of winning the AFC East outright and have seized their early opportunities to prove their worth for such an achievement.
Things are looking up. But it's still far too early to start thinking about the playoffs. Why? As WGR 550 says, "Well... this IS Buffalo."
Case in point
Things were looking up in Detroit last season, too. At the half-way point of the 2007 season, the Lions were 6-2, atop the NFC North, and "giddy" would have been the best way to describe the mental state of Lions fans. Since that point, the Lions have amassed a 1-10 record and have fired their President/GM, Matt Millen.
"Well... it was Detroit."
Exactly! Detroit has admittedly had a far rougher go of it in their franchise's history than Buffalo has, but the premise remains the same - the Bills have had as many struggles recently as the Lions have, though our franchise has generally been thought to be much closer to "on the up" status. Last year's Lions team is the embodiment of "worst case scenario" when it comes to fast starts. Would it be surprising if the 2008 Bills turned into the 2007 Lions? Hardly.
My advice? STOP. Stop the comparisons, stop the predictions, stop the long-term views. Live in fear of getting too far ahead of ourselves and causing some sort of tear in the space/time continuum, where we'll end up watching the Bills squander their golden opportunity. It's happened before. (And please be aware that I'm not addressing anyone in particular... my goal is to slow down as many thought processes as possible.)
Bills taking it slow
Thankfully - mercifully - the Bills themselves are taking things one game at a time. Trent Edwards, immediately following the Bills' come-from-behind 24-23 victory over the Oakland Raiders:
"I honestly don't really care about the standings right now."
Head Coach Dick Jauron is taking things slowly as well:
"You'd certainly rather be 3-0 than 0-3. It is really early, though. The fast start is good but you just have to play through the whole thing."
Yeah, it's the company line of every undefeated team right now, but it's still comforting to know that the Bills are plugging forward business as usual. They're not getting ahead of themselves. That's due to the veteran leadership on the team. Guys like Marcus Stroud and Kawika Mitchell (pictured) have been here before; Mitchell even has a Super Bowl ring to show for it. Jauron is an incredibly important calming influence as well.
This is a young team, and it is absolutely essential that the veteran leaders - Jauron and his coaching staff and a handful of players in particular - keep the team grounded. There are 13 games left in the season, and things can go terribly wrong in an instant (just ask the Patriots). I'm not even comfortable enough with the Bills' fast start to feel confident that they'll come out of St. Louis with a win, especially after seeing their early performance against Oakland. This team is good and their potential is through the roof, but there's still so much that they can prove. To predict - even expect - a playoff berth at this point is riskier business than most imagine.
How to preserve a Bills fan's sanity
Here's my plan of attack as a Bills fan: take things one game at a time, just like the team. Don't get too far ahead of myself. Enjoy the ride - the Bills haven't been this exciting to watch since I was learning basic arithmetic in the second grade. It's a win-win formula. If the Bills end up going to the playoffs, I'll just be prolonging one of the best seasons in recent memory; if they don't, I'll have kept myself sane. If you feel the need to be brash about this team, no one can stop you. Just keep this caution in mind: the Bills haven't won anything yet.
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Comments
Great Post...
I am with you on this one…I am not looking much further past the bye week right now. 2003 was my first year as a season ticket holder and I remember vividly emailing my contact in the ticket office after our week 2 rout of the Jags to ask about the process for playoff tickets. I will never make that mistake again!
I don’t forsee much of a problem beating the Rams (I know…this is the NFL) but I really want to see a rout. I just want to see this team excercise their will against an opponent on both sides of the ball.
by BuffaloWill on Sep 24, 2008 1:15 PM EDT 0 recs
couldn't agree more
I was about to write a diary like this today. I just feel like it is way to early to bring out our “jump to conclusions” mat. Thankfully, we have the Rams this week and then the Cardinals and then the bye week I think comes at a great time to reflect on their first 5 games no matter what their record is. The thing I’ll say is the most comforting is that Trent “gets it.” HE puts in the work, time and has the respect of his teammates all of which I think will in the end be the decisive factor whether or not this team goes to the playoffs.
Success breeds success, I don’t forsee these guys getting lazy or content. Seeing what I saw last week is a perfect example of the confidence these guys have. No matter what they know they can turn it on. The only way they will lose is if they get outschemed which happens weekly in the NFL. So I hope Jauron and company are up to the task of constantly tweaking the game plan to prepare for the kitchen sink
MARVelous
by MARVelous on
Sep 24, 2008 2:26 PM EDT
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yes and no
I agree completely on your part about taking it one game at a time, I have always and will continue to do that and like you Brian I am also nervous about the Rams game. No Bills fan should be thinking playoffs because its week 4, thats it, we’ve played three games. And as with any young team on the rise we can not overlook any opponent including the Rams.
However, that said, there is nothing wrong with looking at our team and gaining confidence. Heck, of all the undefeated AFC teams I think we are by far the best all-around team. Our defense is vicious, we have two great running backs, our passing game is thriving under a young, arriving leader, and our special teams is fantastic as usual. And yes the Bills have won something, we’ve won three tough, hard earned wins and thats something special.
The key is to just keep looking at the next game, no matter what. We must focus one game at a time, but there is nothing wrong with getting pumped about this team. They look like the real deal IF they take it one game at a time
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on Sep 24, 2008 1:22 PM EDT 0 recs
Head Coach Dick Jauron is taking things slowly as well:
When is that NOT the case?
It is very difficult not to look ahead on the schedule and say " wow, the Bills can win this game, and that one, and that one…" The most important thing is for the team not to get too far ahead of its self, the fans can and probably will go crazy however.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Sep 24, 2008 1:28 PM EDT 0 recs
It's kind of funny
Here in the Boston area, that’s exactly what all the fans were doing before last week’s game.
I hope the Bills have good tape of that game.
by rexob on
Sep 24, 2008 2:19 PM EDT
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Excellent Article
It is really hard to stay level-headed right now because it has been so long since the Bills were this good. But if we get our hopes up too big and they fail, it will only make the fall that more devasting. I will do exactly as suggested, just focus on one game at a time.
BTW, by law I am required to vote for the Bills.
by RabidBuffalo on Sep 24, 2008 1:28 PM EDT 0 recs
BTW, by law I am required to vote for the Bills.
+1
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Sep 24, 2008 1:40 PM EDT 0 recs
(in high pitched football coach voice): “Playoffs? PLAYOFFS!?! I just hope we can win a game!”
One game at a time, that’s all I care about right now. Sure, it’s great to think about December and January, but as you said, this is Buffalo. We know heartbreak and we know how this story could end. I’m not about to set myself up for a giant letdown. I’ve done that enough. If come Thanksgiving we’re still plugging along, winning games, leading the division and looking as strong as ever, I’ll potentially begin to cave.
This Rams game has me nervous, not as nervous as the Raiders, but still nervous enough. New QB in there, probably a shift in philosophy to an extent, a coach fighting for his life, Jackson rounding into form, on the road, etc. There are enough speed bumps in the road this week that could derail our ride to the top. The Rams have been brutally terrible thus far, but it is the NFL, they have some solid talent and we’re on the road. I’m definitely nervous about this week, though there is no way we should lose to a team like this that we are far more talented than. I hope there’s no letdown and we come out smoking, that’s the best way to put a bad team down quickly.
I voted Tennessee because they have the best defense and can run the ball so well. If Drunky Collins can play solid football, they will be tough to take down late in the year. I’d like it to be us, but I don’t think we’re there yet. Plus, I still think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC. Them and the Jets (hahahahhaha, right)….
~K
by Kurupt on Sep 24, 2008 1:55 PM EDT 0 recs
by best team long-term
I was thinking over the next 5-10 years. I think the Bills are by far the best looking long-term team. The Bills have really built a foundation here for long-term success. A young, smart QB. A young, tough RB. A middle-aged but fresh-legged alternative at RB. Young receiving corp. Solid O-Line. Solid defense, young secondary and young linebackers. We look primed for long-term success. More than the Titans who are hoping that Vince Young doesn’t end up on anti-depressants and out of football.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on
Sep 24, 2008 2:31 PM EDT
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I took long term to mean, who has the best shot of representing the AFC at the end of the year….
5-10 years? Jeesh, 90% of the current team will be gone by then, I’d say. If you want long term to be past this year, I’d consider it 2-3 years tops!! Under that criteria, I’d rank the Broncos just ahead of us. That offense is just so explosive, though their D stinks, but I can’t get past how good that O has looked with a bunch of YOUNG players. If our O continues to get better, and does get more explosive, which it hardly is now, then we can move past Denver. Our D would put us ahead of them then, IMO…
~K
by Kurupt on
Sep 24, 2008 3:09 PM EDT
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Agreed
this is year 1 of a 4 year window. Maybe by then the Bills will have proven they can both build and maintain a perennial winner, but history says otherwise.
by Joe P. on
Sep 24, 2008 8:26 PM EDT
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not sure if thats entirely true
Teams like Seahawks, Steelers and Eagles built teams that were good for the last decade, as I said, between 5-10 years. Sure you have ups and downs, but just like our rebuilding period lasted about 8 years, so can a period of playoff runs.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on
Sep 24, 2008 10:43 PM EDT
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If you have a good QB you can stay good for a while. I hope Trent is that guy….
~K
by Kurupt on
Sep 24, 2008 11:55 PM EDT
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yup
lets hope he is the man because Brady may be out this year but he’s not going anywhere for a while.
McKelvin and Hardy - rookies of the year
by poz on
Sep 25, 2008 1:07 AM EDT
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Well
if you really think about it my thinking or saying that we’re going 19-0 this year has no outcome on the win loss record of the Bills-the only ones who need to take one game at a time are the Bills themselves. You really need to believe in a jinx or luck to think what we think or hope happens will happen.
Bills Fan in PA
by BILLS on Sep 24, 2008 2:15 PM EDT 0 recs
WGR 550
They are starting to lose some of their luster with me. I’ve been listening to Brad Riter on WECK 1230am. He was one of the reasons I listened to GR in the first place. He also has another former WGR favorite on his show, Bob Gaughan. Those two are fun to listen to and very insightful. Ruben Brown also has a show with him. Check him out.
by the Skycap on Sep 24, 2008 4:11 PM EDT 0 recs
Re: Brad Riter
Brad does good radio. GR should have never let him go. Really paired well with Bulldog, IMO…
by krytime on
Sep 25, 2008 12:08 AM EDT
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That "fluttery heart feeling"
It’s tough not to have that feeling, but I am ignoring it being that, well I’ve been here before with both the Bills and the Sabes (and I’m only 21). I remember thrashing the Pats 31-0 back in ‘03 and thinking, after that one game mind you, wow this is it, this is the year, we’re good, darn good! Granted I know a lot more about football now than I did back in high school, but I know the feeling and I know the heartbreak, the let down, the crushing feeling of yet another mediocre season as a die-hard Bills fan. With all the junk I’ve had to put up with as a Bills fan, I have been able to tone down that early season giddyness because of a few reasons: 1. Well, my college football team has caused me to go out of my mind year after year 2. I KNOW the Bills are good RIGHT NOW, yet I don’t expect anything. 3. I am simply looking forward to the next immediate week, not games down the road which inevitably leads to predicting our record and ultimately predicting a “playoff” birth.
Don’t get me wrong ladies and gents, I love this team and how we’re built plus the several years of rebuilding frustration that we have all been a part of appears to be paying off right now. I think Brian said it best or at least better than I could so we all know how it is and what we need to do . . . just watch, enjoy the ride and our 3-0 record until THIS SUNDAY. Go Bills.
by uscBillsGamecock on Sep 24, 2008 6:36 PM EDT 0 recs
WHAT HAPPENED TO THIS BUNCH ?
Enjoy the ride…..this team is going places. This is 1988 all over again, the simalarities are almost imposible to miss. We are a young, talented, and confident team that is 2-3 stars away from being dominant. But for the regular season, with this schedule we don’t need to be. After Buffalo destroys the rams we would only need to go 6-6 to get into the playoffs. LOOK AT THE SCHEDULE 6-6 ? really? We won’t lose more then 3 or 4 games with this schedule. Now I am NOT predicting a super bowl win this year but we easily can get into the playoffs and win a game once we get there. Brian…..you have a terrific blog…….but I could not disagree with you more…..there is nothing wrong with dreaming big…….its what makes sports and life in general fun. THANKS AGAIN FOR A GREAT BLOG!!!!!
by theitalian on Sep 24, 2008 8:05 PM EDT 0 recs
I’m not saying don’t dream. I’m just saying dream in baby steps.
by Brian Galliford on
Sep 24, 2008 8:41 PM EDT
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As always Brian great post, BUT...
I kinda want to disagree with you (to a point). I actually wanted to create a post along the opposite lines. Being from Buffalo, I’ve been a diehard bills fan damn near all 27 years of my life, so I’ve been through my fair share of ups and down….most of them from the couch, a couple at the Ralph and few other stadiums, random bar stools, and even a cot in the middle of the desert.
The point I’m trying to make with the previous line, is that simply put, I’m just a fan. As a fan, I pray for 19-0 every year. Do I expect it? No…but one can hope. I feel that the only people who need to take it “one game at time” are the players and the coaches. As for myself, I’m already looking into January. I’m already seeing 12+ wins. I curb my enthusiasm on the outside, but I’m about to burst on inside. I’m very excited about this year…doesn’t something just feel a little bit different this go around?
That’s right, I’m letting my hopes get pretty darn high cuz I’m a fan, and that’s what we do. And as a Bills We all are extremely familiar with the letdowns…that’s why I’m allowing this excitement to build up in me, cuz I know that after all this team has been through, I know can handle it…thick skin? I don a coat of armor.
So Bills fans, live a little and enjoy the ride!
(All this from the guy who was so down on this team after the first preseason game…lol)
by MonStarr_716 on Sep 24, 2008 9:24 PM EDT 0 recs
It wasn’t my intention to come across with a tone of “don’t enjoy this”. Like I said immediately above your comment… baby steps.
by Brian Galliford on
Sep 24, 2008 10:16 PM EDT
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This is a young team and is going to have it's share of growing pains.
Between youth and inexperience there are bound to be setbacks, Trent Edwards has just 12 starts (with three fourth-quarter comeback wins).
Most of the pieces are in place for the Bills and if the playoffs don’t happen this year, it will be a surprise. I will be happy with continued improvement. The way other AFC teams are performing (see Pats vs. Fish) anything can happen.
by LGB on Sep 24, 2008 10:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Come on, dream a little!
If you want to enjoy this season you can’t have all this week to week, just looking to the next game, too early in the season jargon. That’s for the coaches and players, for me, I’m going to enjoy the high life, cause God knows it doesn’t come around very often.
At the end of the season its too late, dream a little! Oh and this season is so totally like the 1980 season when the Bills went 5-0, yes the Bills once went 5-0. So check out my new Fanshot to get a taste of what life was like in the 1980 season.
by south123 on Sep 24, 2008 11:07 PM EDT 0 recs
Great Fanshot.
I replied over there; thanks for pointing me to it!
by thefourwinds on
Sep 24, 2008 11:25 PM EDT
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Denver's a paper tiger.
Buffalo’s the real deal. Pay no mind to the scores of the last two games, you said it yourself, good teams find a way to win, and Trent Edwards has “it.”
by Omerta on Sep 25, 2008 3:07 AM EDT 0 recs

















