The grass IS greener
In all fairness, I have to disclose this simple fact before I go any further: I don't like Dick Jauron. Would he make a great neighbor? Probably. From afar, he seems like he'd be a nice guy to borrow tools from and we'd probably take turns shoveling each other's sidewalks if we lived next door to each other. But Dick Jauron is NOT my neighbor and he never will be (I don't get paid a seven figure salary to guide an NFL team to victories; I get paid five figures as an anonymous, humble public servant). Instead, Dick Jauron is a failure that has destroyed the only NFL team I care about. While Sundays in the Fall used to be a family event that I looked forward to with enthusiasm and anticipation, Jauron has turned these three hours each week into lifeless death marches where my family and I sit in front of the TV comatose with glazed stares on our faces. This is why I hate Jauron. It's not because he looks like a corpse or he acts like a zombie on the sidelines or he doesn't give the media anything worth reading; it's because he's sucked all the joy out of my Sundays, dragging the Bills down into complete irrelevance during his three seasons in charge of the team. The Bills have continually failed in the areas that matter most in producing winning teams. How bad is this outfit he commands? It's worse than I thought:
I'm often impressed with the knowledge of Brian's community of Bills fans. Just this week, I saw a poll on Buffalo Rumblings where Bills fans chose a pass rushing DE as our most pressing need by some huge number like 90%. I'm not even referencing some poll where only 50 people voted; I saw something like 400 votes the last time I checked. Once again, Bills fans prove to be uncommonly astute. In 2008, 11 out of the top 12 teams in terms of total sacks had winning records. Think about that. Getting to the QB leads to so many things: stalled drives, turnovers, short fields, momentum, etc. Consistent pressure on the QB may be the most sure-fire way to ensure a good team. Unfortunately, under Jauron the Bills have failed here:
*Fewest total sacks by team since 2006:*
1. Browns: 73
2. Bengals: 74
3. Redskins: 76
4. Chiefs: 79
5. Colts: 83
6. Texans: 84
7. Buccaneers: 87
8. Bills: 90
Not surprisingly, these teams have pretty much failed over the past three seasons (other than the Colts and their amazing offense and their defense that caught fire for 4 weeks in the '06 playoffs). By my count, these 24 seasons have produced 6 playoff seasons. When you look at the sack totals for the past two seasons, Buffalo's sack totals are even more inept:
1. Bengals: 39
2. Browns: 45
3. Chiefs: 47
4. Bills: 50
Not surprisingly, none of these teams has made the playoffs in the past two seasons. We need to get to the QB.
Offensively, the Bills don't score touchdowns under Jauron and his inept coaching staff. Jauron's had three years to make this offense a reflection of himself and I guess he has to some extent- when you look at the numbers since Jauron took over, the Bills offense has been a complete failure:
*Fewest offensive touchdowns since 2006:*
1. Raiders: 62
2. Bills: 78
3. Rams: 80
4. Buccaneers: 81
5. Browns: 81
6. 49ers: 82
7. Dolphins: 87
8 (t) Lions: 90
8 (t) Chiefs: 90
You need to score touchdowns and not settle for field goals on offense. Out of the 27 seasons represented above, these teams have produced three playoff seasons between them.
Pressure on the QB and the ability to get 7 rather than 3 is the key to winning games. It's as simple as that. It has nothing to do with how animated the coach is, it has nothing to do with character, "heart", loving the coach, or anything else. Coaches need to produce schemes that get to the QB and plays that generate touchdowns when you get into scoring position. Jauron has proven unable to do either throughout his pathetic career.
The NFL is a self-designed league of parody. Since Jauron took over, only four teams have failed to garner at least one .500 season:
Bills
Lions
49ers
Raiders
Three of those 4 teams will begin the 2009 season with a different coach than the one that started their failed 2008 campaign. The only team that endorses failure is Buffalo. When you look at it objectively, the grass is most definitely greener for fans of any other franchise. Dick Jauron has sucked the joy out of being a Bills fans and Ralph Wilson's acceptance of failure has taken away any hope for improvement down the line. No dawn ever comes for a fan of a team coached by Dick Jauron, nor is one ever anticipated. It's like it's night all the time- all night forever.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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Wow now I'm reall depressed
Get their QB
Get the Ball
Keep it when we got it
Get seven versus 3
Your analysis only reveals these simple football truths
recommended- great work
Doom and Gloom
pretty ugly – however – i have zero confidence in DJ taking us to even the playoffs. let alone the big prize…so i can appreciate your views on DJ
the caring factor has been sucked out of me and i’m sure most of the fans are feeling the same way. i think we go from selling almost the most season tickets ever to the biggest drop in buying season tickets ever.
Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider
Three of those 4 teams will begin the 2009 season with a different coach than the one that started their failed 2008 campaign. The only team that endorses failure is Buffalo. When you look at it objectively, the grass is most definitely greener for fans of any other franchise. Dick Jauron has sucked the joy out of being a Bills fans and Ralph Wilson’s acceptance of failure has taken away any hope for improvement down the line. No dawn ever comes for a fan of a team coached by Dick Jauron, nor is one ever anticipated. It’s like it’s night all the time- all night forever.
Couldn’t have said it better myself. This sobering reality is why I expect no better than 5 or 6 wins this year. I believe next year a change will be made, since it HAS to be made. It should have been made last year, but instead we get more guaranteed losing.
It’s so sad that this franchise settles for such pathetic mediocrity. In fact, mediocrity might be an improvement. All we’ve seen is downright ineptitude. I have absolutely no hope under the current pathetic coaching staff. It’s sad. All I want now is a handful of good young player this offseason that the new coach can work with.
I really wish someone could provide a reason to believe there will be ANY differences between the past 3 years and this upcoming year. I see it getting worse before it gets better. The perpetual night is a perfect comparison. I’ve said it before, but being a Bills fan is like living in Alaska in January.
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
There’s the Nick we know and love.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Jan 16, 2009 11:50 AM EST reply actions
I sent a text message to Brian Galliford that said, ‘I’ve never respected a person more than I do him.’
I love him to death and love reading his blog every day. I’m just happy that these two years I’ve had I’ve been able to have a blogger like that."
The passing of the torch is finally complete.
by Benjamin Salem on Jan 16, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Why mock me? I was agreeing with you. I’ve always thought you were strangely harsh when it came to your anti-Jauron rants (which are pretty frequent, by the way – do you think of other things during the day?) to the point of creepiness, but I can’t find anything to disagree with here. You’re right. We need to get after the quarterback better.
What I’m not really understanding, though, is how “we need a pass rush” and “I want to rip on Jauron again because it’s fun” really mesh here. It seems like you just kind of threw two ideas into one post and tried to marry them, and it just didn’t work out. But maybe that’s just me.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Jan 16, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
That wasn't a shot...
That quote cracks me up and I use it frequently in my day to day life to express approval in a whimsical manner. I think your skin’s a little thin in your comments even though I enjoy a good deal of your articles…In my opinion, the marriage of an inadequate pass rush and a piss poor offense over the course of three seasons under Jauron in the context of the surrounding league is certainly a fair examination…In any case, let me tell you something- there’s NOTHING fun about being a Bills fan under Jauron’s regime. The fact that the ghost of Tom Donahoe is still being blamed at OBD is what’s really creepy…Keep up the good work.
Regards,
Ben
The passing of the torch is finally complete.
by Benjamin Salem on Jan 16, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
What you take as thin skin, I call “playing the devil’s advocate”. I think that’s a mighty fun game, and I’m pretty sure MattRichWarren agrees with me. It doesn’t hurt, however, that I truly believe that you can’t pin every Bills issue on Jauron. Given the current climate, I’m playing the devil’s advocate far more frequently than I’d like to.
You’re right, though. It’s not really a fun time to be a Bills fan, though I’ll admit, I was pretty happy-go-lucky this past October 20th, when the Bills were 5-1. Those… were… the… days?
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Jan 16, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Me???? Play devil's advocate????
I don’t know what you’re talkign about……
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 16, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
I would go as far as you...
but I agree with a lot of your complaints about Dick Jauron, but he really can only do so much. I think we as fans have come to realize the past few years that the talent we have at the end position is a lot worse than we thought and it has really hurt us. Our scheme could be called into question, but you can’t tell me that a DE other than Kelsey opposite Schobel couldn’t have made an impact. Also those offensive numbers have been skewed by horrible QB play with JP Losman, thanks to Donahoe, which set our team back for years.
The reality is that we have a coach who hasn’t shown much reason for optimism scheme wise or game management wise, but we are in the right direction talent wise. I’d take our talent situation certainly over the teams from that list and could name a bunch more as well. We have a QB that has shown promise and an emerging RB duo that should cause those offensive number to rise. Hopefully, the front office has realized the team’s major pass rush problems after this season, and with talent added to LB and DE our pass rush should be better, causing our secondary to look a lot better as result.
While our head coach’s resume is far from impressive, the direction of the personnel should at least stop you from sinking into doom and gloom. It could be worse…Losman could still be our QB.
Don't forget to pay the troll toll...
AGREE
Boy if I could write this is how I feel, I’ve been here for 49 years watching this team and have never-never felt like this. Your right they have sucked the joy out of being a Bills fan I have never been this down over a Bills team. The sad part is that I don’t see it changing next year and then we have to put up with a new coach and the change that that brings. So there will be losing seasons for at least the next 3-4 years. God help us!
Bills Fan in PA
all that needs to be said
is while Dick Jauron is the whipping, boy….it’s the 90 year old owner that settles for this mediocrity, forms an “inner-circle”, and signs contracts to play in Toronto. While I find Dick Jauron rather appealing because everyone else despises him so much, I contend the coach will not, cannot change this franchise. Until one voice of reason holds a true GM role no coach will succeed in Buffalo. Which is why I always say “what good HC on earth would come to Buffalo, have to deal with an incompetent "inner-circle” an owner that started Johnson over Flutie, and has to play 1 reg season game in Toronto a year????" Gimme a break. You can throw Dick Jauron to the wolves all you want, but it wont change the product, the organization failures, or the disgruntled pissing matches between the heads of the organization. Go ahead, fire DJ, bring in some schnob that is greedy enough fora HC gig and a $2 mill a year paycheck…..it won’t matter, cuz he’ll run into the same problems that Williams, Mularkey and Jauron have all faced. Instead of a uniform mission statement throughout the organization we have a chorus of terrible singers, that when they all sing together all that comes out is 7-9, 7-9, 7-9
MARVelous
“While I find Dick Jauron rather appealing because everyone else despises him so much”
I’m pretty sure that’s Ralph’s reason for keeping this reject around too…pure spite. I’m not sure why he’s so spiteful after all the years of loyalty from this fan base, but logic sure doesn’t dictate year four of this disaster. I agree that it starts with Ralph, but bad owners don’t get fired, bad coaches do. Our only hope, no matter how small that might be under Wilson, is a better coach.
The passing of the torch is finally complete.
no
ralph ain’t keeping him for spite. He’s keeping him cuz he signed him to a 3 year extension. Money talks.
All I’m saying is you would trade jauron for another coach you had the same kind of short comings. You know why? Because given the personnel men in the FO, and the lack of a mission, an overall sense of purpose, everyone being on the same page, one goal, one dream of hoisting Lombardi, we have too many egoes in the organization, none other bigger than Ralph himself. So go ahead and bring in another coach, but they will fail as the last 3 have as well. And it all starts because there is an “inner circle.” Ralph needs to understand this isn’t his “fab five” doing commercials for Alltell…..this is an NFL team. And no successful NFL team runs without defined roles, defined objectives and smart people pulling the trigger. Until that changes, you have to hope when these idiots gly darts at the draft board, they get lucky and find the next great Bill instead of the next Keith Ellison, Erik Flowers or John McCargo
MARVelous
Even though I might get hit my Salem....
The only guy you mentioned drafted by the current staff is McCargo….
Blame the GHOST OF DONAHOE…. woooooo
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 16, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Ellison was a sixth round pick!!!!
He has exceeded expectations in my book. If a sixth round pick is a marginal starer/good back up like Ellison is, how can you not like the pickup????
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 17, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
He said that the Front Office was throwing darts at a dartboard to pick players
WHen he cites Ellison, he’s making a mistake. Ellison was a sixth round draft choice. He has not been a liability to the defense. At the least he is a solid back. At best he is a below-average starter. I think that’s good for a 6th round pick. Not spectacular but good. I just think he can include Erik Flowers and JOhn McCargo on the list of draft failures, but don’t lump Ellison in with those guys.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 17, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Oh,.,..
you’re saying that Ellison was drafted by the current regime…. OK. got ya
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 17, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
on different wavelengths here i guess!!
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
I was responding to Marv lumping Ellison in with Flowers and McCargo as busts....
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 17, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Some surprising teams on these lists:
I’m surprised the Colts and Bucs don’t have more sacks…. Chiefs too with Allen last year. The Colts have Freeney on one end and the Bucs have (had) this great defense… It should be noted they both play the Tampa Two.
As for fewest offensive TDs, the Rams and their playmakers in Jackson and Bulger with Holt and Bruce should have had more in the last few years…. really surprising.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
Chiefs
The Chiefs were dragged down considerably by having an amazing 10 sacks in 2008. It should be noted that Herm Edwards is a disciple of the Tampa 2 as well and will probably be canned now that the small market Chiefs managed to find a GM who isn’t a marketing guru.
The passing of the torch is finally complete.
by Benjamin Salem on Jan 16, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
sacks
are an overrated statistic. Sacks come a lot when teams miss assignments in OL blocking which inflate stats. Hurries, knockdowns, pass defensed by DL, are all stats that can be just as detrimental to an offense as sacks are. While I agree sacks are nice, more importantly is pressure. Doesn’t neccessarily have to be the amount of sacks you get. I mean hell the Bucs are right on that list and they drafted Gaines Adams #4 overrall. Drafting a DE won’t heal or fix any problems…..its a collective effort of scheme by the coaches and depth on the DL that leads to fresh capable personnel. You have to come with a variety of packages something our defense is sorely lacking
MARVelous
I really like the Gaines Adams reference...
people here think drafting a DE high will solve the problem. I am not opposed to the idea but ny no means think it will solve all the problems….
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 16, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
it's not that overrated
go look at the top 10-12 in sacks this year and then check our who made the playoffs….
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
Ralph may not be as dumb
as we all think……a couple of teams fired their coach that had a so so year, see Mangini. Everyone was hell bent about Cowher towards the end of the season but he said he doesn’t want to coach for another year….So why not sign the big Dick to one more year and then go after Billy boy. As mush as I too hate Juaron I will deal with him one more year if it means we will land Cowher
well keep dreaming....
we won’t land Cowher. I am an eternal optimist but he ain’t coming here and Ralph ain’t paying for him. The trend recently has been to hire the hot coordinator anyways.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 16, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
Dragging the C vs DE debate into the mix
Over the past 3 seasons, as noted above, the Bills had 90 sacks. This works out to 30 per season or just under 2 (1.9) sacks per game. Games like the season opener against Seattle likely inflate the number as Buffalo rarely seems to get 2 sacks per game. Even isolating it to 50 sacks in 2 seasons (1.6) doesn’t drop the percentage all that much. (Cue jokes about there being no further to dig.) The lack of sacks is clearly an issue, and one—in Buffalo’s defense—best resolved with actual pass rushing DEs.
Let’s say that Buffalo drafts a DE or somehow lures one of the top DE free agents to join the Bills. If a rookie or FA added, say, 10 sacks to Buffalo’s bottom line (35 when 10 is added to the 25 average from the last 2 seasons) I think most of us would be quite pleased. (Keep in mind the 10 sack increase wouldn’t necessarily be all the sacks the hypothetical DE amassed—he could have 15 with the other defenders combining for 20.) That would be 2.2 sacks per game, a tad over 1/2 a sack more per game than the defense generates now.
If you’ve read my long winded offensive line write ups, you know that center has been a particularly problematic area for the Bills. (I still have 2 games to get to from this season and 2 games from last season weren’t completed as my recorder died.) Over the past two seasons (28 games have been reviewed), Buffalo’s centers have combined to kill 56.5 plays, or 2.0 killed plays per game.
By way of comparison, Peters, over the past two seasons, has killed 27 total plays. I think a good center—either drafted or acquired in free agency—could cut the number of killed plays at the center position to the same proportion: basically 1 killed play per game.
So, adding an effective DE would increase the number of sacks by about 1/3 (from 1.6 to 2.2 per game) whereas adding an effective center would cut the number of plays killed by that position in half (2.0 to 0.96 per game).
Give me the center.
by Ron From NM on Jan 17, 2009 12:27 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
Once again excellent analysis. And yet another great big lighted arrow pointing to the largest black hole on this team. We need a road grader. Now who could that be?
everything goes better with a BIG MACK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8xCkToEnJ8
If you watch that it is readily apparent that Mack has great footwork, finishes his blocks, possesses a good center of gravity, doesn’t get driven back on contact, and has the ability to get up to the second level and be effective on linebackers. He also shows great awareness for where the running back is in relation to the angle he takes and plays with an obvious mean streak and attitude, exemplified by how he drives the defender back and into the ground through the whistle.
Honestly, I think if we draft Mack we will get the glue to our offense for over a decade. He is a great road grader.
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
darn it!!
I knew it! I knew it!
I sat there for about 30 seconds…just thinking….Joe is clearly being sacrastic…but if he’s not I have to defend my boy Mack.
One of these days Joe, one of these days I;ll be sarcastic without you knowing!
But anyways, I like your new signature. Very depressing.
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
Thanks for the laugh
And about the signature too. You might remember where I got it. It is a Dan Dierdorf quote from the Bills last game vs the Pats.
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations"
Football gods above I just love watching him shove guys out of the hole
And just destroying LBs at the next level because the guard can handle a DT one on one because he knows that the C will make sure everything is alright before moving to the next level rather than getting shoved back…
Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?
center v defensive end
I read your OL analysis and really enjoy your work. I don’t necessarily disagree that center is Buffalo’s most pressing need (Again, Jauron’s offense and defense have both failed over the course of this three year disaster), but feel like the really special DEs tend to go quicker in the draft than centers. I’ll put it this way- if Buffalo doesn’t strongly address both positions this offseason, they’ll basically be admitting that they’re not trying. The signs are already there that they don’t care, but you’d hope they’d at least make a fake effort about trying to win. Get me a center too.
The passing of the torch is finally complete.
by Benjamin Salem on Jan 17, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
You're saying it's easier to draft a great Center in round two so go for the DE in round one
I don’t disagree and we will get the best or second-best center if we stick around to our round two spot.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 17, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
There are some strong centers in this draft after Mack. Johnathan Luigs from Arkansas, Eric Wood from Louisville, Max Unger from Oregon, and even a guy like A.Q. Shipley from PSU, are all good players that could be starters over Dookie Preston right now. The center play has been so bad on this team that the Bills could wait until the 4th round and still get a guy who is better then the two slugs the Bills have marched out there the last two years.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Let's hope for something better than merely someone better than Preston/Fowler
Buffalo needs a good player, not just someone higher up on the slug-scale.
by Ron From NM on Jan 17, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
You sure their even on the Slug Scale?
I personally find that demeaning and insulting to slugs the world over Ron, they would prefer some other spine-less creature like say worms would be used in conjunction with Preston/Fowler…
Now if only this gopher could play DE, we would be doing better, I mean, who couldn't play better than the corpse brothers Kelsay and Denney?
I think you’re right in that the high profile DEs will go quickly, with at least 3 going in the top 16 picks and possibly as many as 5. It will be a surprise if more than 2 Cs are drafted before Buffalo’s second round pick.
With that being said, if Buffalo has a significantly higher grade on a particular center than their next two or three centers then Buffalo needs to get that guy. (That guy may or may not be Mack—we don’t know.) If, on the other hand, Buffalo has their top 3 centers graded roughly evenly it would make more sense to pick the C at #42 and the best remaining DE at #11. I wish we had some faith in Buffalo’s ability to effectively address at least 1 of the 4 major needs (C, DE, LB, TE—alphabetical order only) in free agency.
I just hope that Jenkins isn’t on the board, or OBD may not be able to help themselves.
by Ron From NM on Jan 17, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
You can statistically argue C vs DE, but only to a certain extent, IMO…
What you can’t quantify is the pressure a pass rushing threat will provide. We don’t get sacks, nor do we get pressure. That’s why I feel so strongly about getting a pass rusher or three. The entire D can benefit, turnovers will/should go up and overall, quality pass rushers make it tougher for a QB.
Your argument for a center over DE is that we need to reduce the number of killed plays. Agree that we need to cut those, by a lot, but isn’t that something we can improve on via FA or in the 2nd round? If we just need a guy to not hurt us, why would we even consider taking a C at 11?
Maybe I’m just missing the point here…
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
From directly above...
If, on the other hand, Buffalo has their top 3 centers graded roughly evenly it would make more sense to pick the C at #42 and the best remaining DE at #11.
Buffalo may indeed be able to get vastly improved C play in the 2nd round or free agency. My point is that if Buffalo has one C rated much higher than the others we really, really need that guy.
Also, I haven’t even attempted to quantify how much damage the C position has done on plays that aren’t killed. For example, if a RB takes the ball and gains 2 yards before being tackled by the guy the C was unable to contain (as frequently happens with guys like Lynch who carry/drag defenders) it’s not a killed play—even though it may have gone for 5, 10 or more yards had the C done his job. The closest I number I have would be the by-the-gap stats, which clearly show that C play has really hurt the run game. Also, bear in mind that on pass plays the C wouldn’t be charged with a killed play where the QB got the ball out—even if he was getting pressure from the C’s guy.
by Ron From NM on Jan 17, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with Kurupt, if the logic is to pick a center at 11 because it is our biggest need because of how many offensive plays and drives are killed then it is a slightly flawed logic. You can’t use last year’s centers as the basis for how big of a need center is. Both players are free agents and won’t be starting here next year. So we should really be comparing how many fewer killed plays Mack would have then whoever Buffalo drafts in the second, third or fourth round. How many fewer plays would a mediocre player like Geoff Hangartner or a player who is an upgrade, but not very much of one like Russ Hochstein kill?
If Mack would kill 25 plays and a different rookie would kill 40, is that enough of a difference to pass on a DE? If the choice is between one killed play a game and a pass rusher, I’m picking the pass rusher.
Aren’t we using last year’s results as the primary reason for the need for more effective DE play? 25 sacks a year (on average—or 30 if you take the 3 year total) was enough to convince almost everyone that Buffalo needs at least one effective DE.
Your point about which new C Buffalo will—or at least damn well better—start next year is a good one. OBD has grades (or will shortly) on all of the C prospects in the draft. If they’ve got one C rated a lot higher than the others then, assuming the grades are accurate, it should result in far fewer killed offensive plays than if they go with a second tier guy. If OBD has the Cs all graded about the same, again assuming the grades are accurate, then #11 would be better spent on another position.
To my mind, having the C kill 15 fewer plays (about 1 per game) would be worth passing up a DE. Through 14 games on run plays, Buffalo averaged:
Left C gap: 5.4 ypa
Left B gap: 4.5 ypa
A gap: 3.3 ypa
Right B gap: 4.1 ypa
Right C gap: 4.9 ypa
That 3.3 ypa crater when running up the middle justifies using whatever pick is necessary on the C position. Change that 3.3 to, say, 4.3 and Buffalo adds another 100 yards rushing over the course of the season. An extra 6 yards per game doesn’t sound impressive….but it would have made Buffalo the #11 rushing offense in the league in 2008, kept some drives alive, and put more points on the board.
Just for clarification, I’m not on the Mack Bandwagon so much as the Center Bandwagon. It could be that, right or wrong, Buffalo has Mack rated no higher than the other Cs in the draft. If that’s the case then at least one of the top three Cs will be on the board at #42. Buffalo can take a DE at #11 and sit patiently until pick #42…instead of trading back into the late first round thereby losing a 3rd round pick.
by Ron From NM on Jan 17, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Aren’t we using last year’s results as the primary reason for the need for more effective DE play?
We shouldn’t be. Or at least we shouldn’t be using last year’s statistics as much as we should be thinking about how the DEs will be next year. If I thought that Chris Ellis was going to emerge this year and Schobel was going to bounce back from injury and play like he was 25 years old then i wouldn’t care how many (or in this case few) sacks Buffalo had last year and DE wouldn’t be much of a need at all. The focus should be on what Buffalo’s roster is going to look like in 2009 and not the way it played in 2008.
That is why how big of a need Buffalo has at center isn’t related to how bad Preston played last year. If Preston was the best center in the NFL and he was just going to price himself out of Buffalo we would still have the exact same need at center as we do now. Who has a bigger need at quarterback, a team who’s best starter is a crappy vet like Brian Griese or a terrible younger player like Ryan Fitzpatrick? It’s a trick question, the answer is that they both need a QB equally as badly even though Griese is by far the superior player. If you have a need at a position where the starter from the year before absolutely has to be replaced, then it doesn’t matter how bad they were.
Every team runs for fewer yards per carry up the gut then they do going off tackle, but that 3.3 number is pretty bad. But again the point is that we were at 3.3 with Fowler/Preston and could be at 4 with the highest player on their board and at 3.7 with the second or third highest guy and I wouldn’t sacrifice taking the best DE available for those .3 yards per carry.
That's a big difference on the A gap
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 17, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Dang, my comment was supposed to be about Ron From NM’s comment.
by thefourwinds on Jan 17, 2009 4:48 AM EST up reply actions

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