Third & Short: A Look at Turk Schonert's Playcalling
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2009 7:30 AM EST
in News
38 comments
Many Buffalo Bills fans have questioned Turk Schonert’s propensity to call pass plays on third and short, particularly out of the shotgun formation. This was one of the biggest arguments made against Schonert, one of Buffalo's most aggressively challenged coaches. On Brian’s suggestion I took a look at the plays run during the entire regular season on third and short, defined as one or two yards to go, for every team in the league. (I couldn’t find play calls by formation that included down and distance so I can't say it was out of te shotgun or two tight end or any other formation. Deal with it.) In the league this year there were 1,372 third and short plays. Of those, teams ran the ball 836 times and threw the ball 536 times. That’s an average of 1.6 rushes for every pass. That result, along with several of the other results, was surprising.
Buffalo
Of the 32 NFL teams, five of them actually passed more often on third and short than ran it. The Eagles (27 passing to 24 rushing attempts on third and short), Niners (even at 20-20), and Cardinals (23-15) were not a surprise to me, but the Steelers (27 to 24) and Jets (31 to 24) were. I look at the Steelers as a road-grader type of team, but on third and short situations they passed slightly more than they ran. Even the Jets, with Thomas Jones, threw much more often than they passed on third and short.
Run Happy Teams
In all, five teams far exceeded the league average, rushing at twice the league average ratio on third and short. The Bears, Falcons, and Panthers ran with a 3 to 1 ratio. The Vikings had a suspect QB and Adrian Peterson in the backfield and ran 4 rushes to every pass and the Ravens with three good backs and a rookie QB rushed 6 times for every one pass, obviously much higher than anyone else in the league. In fact, questionable or inexperienced QB play can factor into the Bears, Falcons, Vikings and Ravens all being on this list. Even Jake Delhomme came off of elbow surgery last off-season and, as exemplified by his most recent game, made some questionable decisions. Here’s something that didn’t surprise me – four of these five teams were playoff teams. Personally, I want the Bills on this list, but if they aren’t on this list it’s not the end of the world.
To figure out what worked well I looked at the conversion success rates of each team running and each team passing (sample of 64 – 32 teams with one rate for rushing and one rate for passing). On most teams rushing was more successful at obtaining the first down than passing. In fact 27 of the top 35 top conversion rates were rushing. Based on the law of averages it’s much easier to get the first down rushing, one reason why most teams rushed more often than passed.
The Big Picture
Did Turk Schonert call too many passes on third and short? Considering his quarterback was inexperienced (or it was the questionable J.P. Losman), we should have been running more often on third and short than we did; or, rather, following the examples of playoff teams with suspect QBs like the Ravens, Vikings, and Falcons. We would have converted more third downs on average keeping more drives alive and it would have saved Trent Edwards from having the team put on his shoulders too soon. Schonert wasn't as pass happy as he could have been or as bad as many of us thought he was, but we should have been over 2 rushes to 1 pass ratio (at least), instead of merely slightly above the league average of 1.6 at 1.7. I would prefer a 3 to 1 or higher ratio next year when our power run game should take center stage. That would put us into the top 5 in the league on ratio and should move us up the list of overall third and short conversion rates.
If you want to know how every team's breakdown looks, I attached the spreadsheet with all the data I collected. Any questions email me or post in the comments and I will help you out and answer the questions.
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I can’t believe no one has commented on this yet.
I mean, obviously we didn’t really need proof that the Bills didn’t run the ball enough in critical situations, but this data clearly defines how some of the best teams in the league handled key downs. There’s an incredibly distinct line between teams with young quarterbacks and teams with veteran quarterbacks in terms of how these important downs were handled.
Long story short: the Bills mis-managed Trent Edwards in 2008. They gave him too much responsibility. This is validation, people. Where’s the angst? Where’s the “Good work, Turk should be canned!” comments? I’m pretty disappointed. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 19, 2009 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess based on Edwards’ intelligence, prepraration, training camp, weekly practices, etc., the coaching staff believed that Edwards could handle the responsibility. It will be interesting to see how they manage Edwards going forward. He now has one more year of experience and another offeason to reflect, learn, and prepare.
Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.
by Fort Worth on Jan 19, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i mean
interesting stats, but they don’t tell me that Turk completely failed. 25 runs to 15 passes? That seems fair to me. You can’t have a 3:1 ratio on 3rd and 2 or every friggn team will know that 67% of the time you are going to run in short yardage. Look, Schonert tried to instill a lot on Trent last year. When we came out of the gates 5-1, Trent had pass atempts of 30, 25, 39, 25, 30. The 39 came in the Oakland game. He was completing a high percentage of his passes, the scheme was working, but of course were playing SEA, JAX, OAK, STL, SD. All teams that as we know struggled this season except the lucky 8-8 Chargers. Trent was efficient, in rythym, the system was working.
In the games Trent started and won he averaged 28.5 pass attempts. In games he started and lost 29 pass attempts. My point is the play calling never changed, but the completion percentage did. In the 7 games he started and won, he completed 70% of his passes. In the 4 games he started and lost in decent weather so not counting NE2 game, he was a 60% completion percentage.
The story is simple. Defenses got better, got the film and Trent struggled. Rushing overall should have increased. The variation, scheme, play calling all should have been shaken up more. look at the beauty Haley the OC for the Cards called yesterday. It was magnificent. Especially the game winning drive that at up 7 mins, ended in a score. Unreal execution and brillant timing of the plays. Screens, quick runs, quick throws, play action. The defense had no clue what was coming next.
In the NFL, running on 3rd down is fine. But expecting a 3:1 is way too predictable, and with teams expecting it, passing the ball leaves way more 1:on:1 coverages and greater chances for success. You can argue Turk should have made the game plans easier on Trent. ANd I think Trent was complaining about that in the middle of the season. Too much was being thrown at him. He’d run a play expeting cover 2 or man coverage and he’d get cover 5, and huge zones. That’s where Turk’s blame lies. He didn’t utilize our underneath game. Evans, Roscoe, Reed in the screen game, not afraid to test the defense deep more often. Predictablility is a killer in the NFL, and without a mobile QB like Roethlesbere to ad lib, it is a killer for a pocket passer.
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Jan 19, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t have a 3:1 ratio on 3rd and 2 or every friggn team will know that 67% of the time you are going to run in short yardage.
Did that stop the Vikings, Ravens and Falcons? I mean “stop” both literally (on the field) and literally (from dialing up the run almost every time).
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 19, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no it didnt
I guess I just don’t have a problem with the play calling at all on 3rd and 2. I have a problem with the predictability as we all have and I have a problem with how poorly executed many plays were. I mean you just don’t see other teams execute as poorly as that 2008 Bills offense did on so many occassions….I liked a lot of the what Turk was “trying” to do, but the execution was so bad, and the predictability was even worse. We all know we can run the ball, but you have to make big plays in the passing game to make it all work. Turk & Trent and the WR’s really let us down with their execution, especially in divisional games
MARVelous
by MARVelous on Jan 19, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you’re good at something, you accomplish the task most of the time. Even with 8-9 men in the box, I believe that Lynch gets that 2 yards about 60-70% of the time as long as the play call isn’t some screwy cutesy thing. I think in the past year what would have done in running more is the telegraphing by formation business that Schonert was up to. I form=Run, Shotgun=Pass. If we lined up strictly in I-Form most of the time, our rushing game will be much more successful. Who doesn’t think Lynch would get those yards, most of the time, if the defense only has a shred of doubt that Edwards might throw the ball from under center?
The passing on 3 and 2 or goal to go isn’t a problem, it’s the type of passes being called, league-wide not just the Bills. You can’t call spread wide shotgun screen crap, and expect not to lose 5 yards. A quick slant from a two tight end formation would probably work more often than not.
Arrgh. The Bills sure do suck.
by syrbillsfan on Jan 20, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Teams were stopping our running game with their front 3 or 4
That’s why play-action was useless and what led to the predictability. Schonert was definitely not patient enough but even more important was the fact that our center’s were so weak that we couldn’t run effectively up the middle.
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Section 336 Row 13
by keysh67 on Jan 20, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Give us a chance Brian, some of us have to work
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations"
by Joe P. on Jan 19, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who works? ;)
I kid, I kid…
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 19, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't everyone get Martin Luther King Day off?
If it wasn’t for the kids, being a teacher would be great. :-)
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha
my girlfriend feels the same way, she teaches HS Bio at an all-girls school. I’d shoot myself before ever getting myself into that!
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Jan 19, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually really like my job.
Middle school kids can be great. They are certainly frustrating from time to time but I enjoy what I do. The lifestyle is pretty sweet though with holidays and stuff.
Plus we have built in job security and right now that’s nothing to shake a stick at.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Teachers in my district have workshops all day
Most parents don’t realize that because the kids are out of school. Sneaky administration!
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations"
by Joe P. on Jan 19, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What district is that Joe?
what state are you in?
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No offense Matt, but I would rather not give out that info.
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations"
by Joe P. on Jan 19, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine Joe....
I was just curious because I didn’t know that happened.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 20, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting statistics. However, I believe it was not so much that the Bills either ran or passed on 3rd and short but that it was obvious to everyone which they were doing and if it was a run, where they were running. The offense had a total lack of deception or imagination. This coupled with an offensive line that could not run block and receivers that could not run precise routes taking what the defense gave them and you have another bad year.
How about running out of a spread formation or passing with two tight ends and a fullback? Oh, I forgot, our tight ends and fullback can’t catch.
by jpheff on Jan 19, 2009 11:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good point. That was a lot of the problem.
or passing with two tight ends and a fullback?
How about passing in a normal I or offset I formation or any formation where Trent is under center?
by kaisertown on Jan 19, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree that predictability was a huge issue. I maintain, however, that the run/pass ratio as a fundamental philosophy was flawed on the Bills’ part. They gave too much to Edwards too quickly based on his hot start. When he was on, the team was great; when he was off, the team was terrible. That’s really the long and short of it, but the Bills continued to give him the ball as the year wore on. That is my biggest issue with the coaching staff.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 19, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What were they supposed to do?
Give up on him and start JP? They knew Trent was struggling and they in turn tried to run the ball. Due to the predictability of the play calling and the inept O-line play, the run didn’t work. They went back to Trent and the other teams knew that was coming too. Then Trent lost total confidence and lost to the AFC East and everything seemed to compund on itself. The whole problem was the predictablility and lack of execution. I was actually expecting to see more passes thrown from the RB position this year since Marshawn isn’t too bad at it and Fred Jackson was a QB. They actually did receieve more passes and this is something to build on for next year. Imagine Marshawn out of the backfield tossing screens or TD’s to Fred Jackson. Who would ever expect that? You wouldn’t even need that Wildcat crap for that to happen. Could be run out of the I-formation or Jackson could line up wide out.
by JTM1023 on Jan 19, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What were they supposed to do? Give up on him and start JP?
I’m not sure how you arrived at that conclusion, but please rest assured that that was NOT part of my idea. By several miles.
All I’m saying is that while teams like Baltimore (Flacco), Atlanta (Ryan) and Minnesota (Frerotte/Jackson) racked up the rushing stats on third and short to protect their quarterback, Buffalo routinely put the pressure squarely on Edwards’ shoulders. I count that as a factor in the team’s inability to run the ball, in Edwards’ dramatic reduction in confidence as the season wore on, and in our inability to win any games in the season’s mid section.
You have to differentiate between “we should have run more” and “we were very predictable”. They are independent of each other, and essentially operate on different planes. If I’m blaming those two factors for Edwards’ woes, the team’s woes and the offense’s woes, I’m giving 75% to philosophy and 25% to lack of creativity.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 19, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I know
I would never think anyone in here would opt for Losman, especially the king of the blog. My point is that the Bills really had no other choice but to ride their lead horse no matter the results. I think they wanted Trent to succeed, but if he failed, he was learning valuable info and hopefully learning what no to do. Best thing he could have done was to not emulate JP. His untimely divisional game turnovers should have taught him the ultimate lessons. DON’T RELY ON YOUR LINE and DON’T TRY TO FORCE IT!!! I hope Trent learned and really hope Turk figured some stuff out too. Now if only we had a defense like the last 4 playoff teams had. Think Whitner will ever become close to Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu? I personally don’t think he is worthy of holding their jocks.
by JTM1023 on Jan 19, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they wanted Trent to succeed, but if he failed, he was learning valuable info and hopefully learning what no to do.
I don’t necessarily hate that strategery – in fact, it’s not bad strategery at all – but at some point, you have to balance that objective with more important objectives. Like, you know, ending your decade-long playoff drought.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 20, 2009 8:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is it just me or..
It seemed all season that most teams were able to stop our running game with their front 4 or front 3 without having to commit extra defenders. This is a huge element in the whole discussion. While I agree that we were extremely predictable, the fact that teams didn’t really need to fear our run-blocking made it easy for them to drop more guys into coverage. This pi$$-poor run blocking is probably one of the biggest contributors for the predictability.
You want teams to fear your run game, you need teams to struggle stopping it. When teams start stacking the box, then play-action (under center) works. In our case, it was pretty useless because teams never really had to commit defenders to stop the run. By lining Trent up in the shotgun, at least he had a better view of the field prior to the snap. Also, with our weak centers, it was probably preferable to be in a shotgun.
I agree that putting it in the hands of a rookie QB that often on 3rd & short is not the conventional approach but under the circumstances it might have been the best option. I found that as the season progressed, after they replaced Fowler and Preston started to settle in a bit they seemed to get better at running draw plays with Marshawn & Freddy.
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Section 336 Row 13
by keysh67 on Jan 20, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no one will ever read this but....
I had to get this off my chest…
Due to the predictability of the play calling and the inept O-line play, the run didn’t work.
This and Schonert’s response are the crux of the problem. The Bills made no real commitment to the running game until late in the season. Although it would have been nice to effectively run the ball, they were winning with Edwards arm against inferior competition. Trent’s early success essentially masked a fatal flaw, which eventually exposed itself. The fact that the coaches either didn’t pick this up or were ineffective in addressing it earlier is an extremely troubling sign. It wasn’t until Trent collapsed under the pressure, and only out of necessity, did they truly commit to the running game.
Schonert seemed to forget the identity of the offense he was intending to build. This is a ball control, run-first team with some big strike capability. Run-first is an attitude. It means that you run and run some more, sometimes even when it’s not working. In critical situations, you run. The Bills have the horses. They have the beef. They were just missing the attitude.
I sincerely hope that Schonert has learned this. need
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
by NJBill on Jan 20, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The greatest teams are the most predictable, but they are never one-dimensional.
The game is based on talent, not deception.
Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.
by Fort Worth on Jan 19, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Brian, here.
When someone has a hot hand, you keep feeding him the ball in basketball. They did that with Trent this year but when he came back down to earth from his monster start so did the team. That’s when they must shift the focus and find the next hot hand. In many games it was Freddy or Lynch but wasn’t always exploited.
I fully believe that this will change next year and the Bills will shift towards that power running team on every down and distance, not just third and short.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2009 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This sounds good
But they gave a huge contract to Evans and drafted a tall WR and are looking into a pass catching TE this year. If the switch to a power run game, the talent at WR will be wasted. There has to be a balance between the two schemes. Run the ball to set up the pass and vice versa. And quite possibly, Trent isn’t the guy to run that type of offense. Perhaps this past season was the beginning of the maturation process for Trent and he will be that guy. Who really knows until it plays itself out?
by JTM1023 on Jan 19, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just because yo uare a power running team doesn't mean you never throw....
I firmly believe Trent can run any offense. He has the accuracy. He has the brain. Put him anywhere and he will be fine.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great job Matt, rec'd
I agree with a lot of your conclusions on this. One thing that has not been discussed is the lack of “feel” Turk seem to have for the game. Percentages of run vs pass in a game helps us understand the play calling tendencies and/or offensive philosophies to a degree. Situational play calling needs to go beyond simple stats. If it were that easy, coaches could just call plays off a card similar to the one coaches use to determine when to go for the 2pt conversion. An OC has to sense when to call a run vs a pass on third down. He has to have a feel for the “chess match” that he is playing against the other team’s defense. There is a flow to a game and the correct play to run in one game could be the wrong play to call in the exact same situation in the next game. Having that feel for the game is a big part of what makes some coaches great. So far, I have to say Turk has significant nerve damage.
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations"
by Joe P. on Jan 19, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, great work Matt
Did you really look at all the plays run in the NFL this year? WOW. Must have taken all Sunday!
Obviously, it would appear we passed more in short yardage situation, at least from what we all try to remember. I bet if we were to look at 3rd and 5 or under, it’d be a much, much, much higher rate of passes. Also, we sure seemed to pass a ton in short yardage goal to goal situations. I think that’s where we all had the “we pass too much in short yardage situations” idea.
As others have said, the predictability of the play call was as problematic as anything. Going empty backfield on 3rd and 1 and throwing isn’t the same as tight formation play action pass. We did too much of the former, IMO, which caused plays to not work.
Maybe 3rd and short playcalls weren’t as skewed to passing as we thought, but all the factors involved (the actual play, goal line plays, run up the gut behind turd Centers, shotguns, etc) didn’t help us succeed…..
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Jan 19, 2009 12:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well I didn’t watch every play if that’s what you mean. I just looked at the data.
Overall percentages:
3rd and 1 we rushed 65% of the time.
3rd and 2 we rushed 50% of the time.
3rd and 3 we rushed 24% of the time.
3rd and 4 we rushed 42% of the time.
3rd and 5 we rushed 47% of the time.
I am not an advocate of rushing a whole lot on 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 5. 3rd and 3 is highly questionable as well.
Inside the ten yard line, the percentages are almost identical on 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2. 3rd and 3 inside the ten we passes 100% of the time. I am not sure how many times that is (it could be one for one or something) but it still sticks out.
Overall it seems like 3rd and 3 was Turk’s passing down and distance.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
two key things that stick out
It’s really amazing that we passed 76% of the time in 3rd & 3 situations. I spent quite a bit of time trying to understand why Turk seemed so stubborn about establishing the run and I remember noting that running up the middle averaged only 3y per carry which really isn’t much and might explain why he didn’t call many run plays in 3rd and 3 situations.
The fact that we passed 100% of the time on 3rd down (short yardage situations), especially on 3rd &1 and 3rd & 2 is absolutely incredible. They really did not trust their run blocking abilities! This is horrible to have to settle for field goals so often. Good teams are able to power their way into the end zone! Again, as I said before, this in my opinion was the biggest contributor to the high predictability of our formations. No use going under center when you know the opponent doesn’t respect your ability to pound the ball!
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Section 336 Row 13
by keysh67 on Jan 20, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt great work thanks...........
I woulda though Turk passed more on third and short than ran…….of course he’s choice of slamming Lynch or Jackson straight up the gut behind Folwer and Preston often doesnt help either…….but now its kinda nice to know its not ALL on TURK……….but he still needs to improve along with everyone else……
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 19, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ANybody else notice the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend?
Leading 16-7 at the start of the fourth quarter, Pittsburgh faced third-and-1 on its 37. That cannot be the Pittsburgh Steelers in a shotgun spread on third-and-1 when trying to grind the clock! Incompletion, clock stopped, bad punt, Baltimore scored and suddenly the pressure is on at 16-14. The pass was not a gamble for a deep completion, rather a dinky-dunky 5-yard thing. No matter how good your defense is, you can’t casually throw incompletions on third-and-1 in a clock-killing situation.
From TMQ
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 20, 2009 10:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This reminds me of the pass the Bills took against the Jets (2nd game) where JP fumbled the fooball during the dying seconds of the game and we lost due to the fumble recovery touchdown. A bad call made worse by the situation of the game.
Bills fan half way around the world
by moncheri on Jan 21, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wild Cat Formation
If I remember correctly, Miami ran sweep right, flee flicker, half back option, and bootleg to left using the SAME Wild Cat Formation.
Why can’t the Bills run 4 different types of plays using 1 formation? That’ll kill the predictability in no time.
Bills fan half way around the world
by moncheri on Jan 21, 2009 1:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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