The true value of Trent Edwards, third round quarterback

by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 2:29 PM EST in News Comment 74 comments

QB Edwards is great value for Bills (Associated Press)

Disclaimer: this post is not designed to be a tool to help football fans, specifically football fans, read the future, specifically the future of quarterback Trent Edwards. The former third-round pick out of Stanford has surprised in his first two years in the league, and his surprise continues to be a pleasant one despite the fact that Edwards helped commandeer one of the worst collapses in Buffalo Bills team history as its starting quarterback in 2008.

I'm a numbers guy. I like taking numbers and stacking them up against history to determine exactly where we're at at a given position. In racking my brain, I came to conclusion that Trent Edwards was the best third-round quarterback selected in the past decade. Numbers back that up. In fact, when comparing Edwards to first-round quarterbacks over the same decade, it becomes apparent that the Bills got tremendous value when they selected Edwards #92 overall.

First thing's first: let's compare Edwards to all quarterbacks drafted in the third round over the past decade (a relatively small number, to be sure). Edwards is the only third-round quarterback to have a winning record during his career. That, alone, makes him the best third-round quarterback of the past decade (though he has some competition). For illustrative purposes, here are the top five third-round quarterbacks of the past decade ranked by won-lost record. Draft team, record over the first 23 games, overall record, and career QB rating are also listed.

Quarterbacks: Round 3 Prospects
Year	Name	Team	F23	OVR	RAT
2007	T. Edwards	BUF	12-11	12-11	79.1
2003	C. Simms	TB	7-8	7-8	71.2
2002	J. McCown	ARI	10-13	12-19	71.6
2004	M. Schaub	ATL	9-14	10-14	86.2
2000	C. Redman	BAL	4-6	4-6	79.5

Other third-round quarterbacks of the past decade: 1999 (Brock Huard, SEA); 2000 (Giovanni Carmazzi, SF); 2003 (Dave Ragone, HOU); 2005 (Charlie Frye, CLE; Andrew Walter, OAK; David Greene, SEA); 2006 (Charlie Whitehurst, SD; Brodie Croyle, KC); 2008 (Kevin O'Connell, NE)

Not much of a contest there. Simms and McCown are unlikely to be starters again. Schaub is coming on fast, as are his Texans, but he hasn't been able to shake the injury bug throughout his career.

It's pretty apparent that, in terms of third-round quarterbacks, Edwards was tremendous value. You didn't need me to tell you that. It's rare enough that a third-rounder starts more than half a season as a rookie, which Edwards has already done. But how well does Edwards stack up to first-round quarterbacks within the same decade? Counting Drew Brees (the first pick of the second round; that's essentially a first-rounder), 29 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round over the past decade. Of those 29 signal-callers, nearly half (12) had better records through their first 23 games. The list...

Quarterbacks: Round 1 Prospects
Year	Name	Team	F23	OVR	RAT
2004	Roethlisberger	PIT	20-3	51-20	89.4
2004	P. Rivers	SD	18-5	33-15	92.9
2003	R. Grossman	CHI	17-6	19-12	70.2
2008	M. Ryan	ATL	11-5	11-5	87.7
2008	J. Flacco	BAL	11-5	11-5	80.3
2001	M. Vick	ATL	14-8-1	38-28-1	75.7
2000	Pennington	NYJ	14-9	43-34	90.6
1999	Culpepper	MIN	14-9	41-53	89.0
2003	C. Palmer	CIN	13-10	32-33	88.9
1999	D. McNabb	PHI	13-10	82-45-1	85.9
2003	K. Boller	BAL	13-10	20-22	71.9
2006	V. Young	TEN	13-10	18-11	68.8
2007	T. Edwards	BUF	12-11	12-11	79.1
2004	E. Manning	NYG	12-11	42-29	76.1

Other notable first-rounders (with F23 data): Tim Couch (5-18), Akili Smith (3-14), Cade McNown (3-12), Drew Brees (9-14), David Carr (6-17), Joey Harrington (6-17), Patrick Ramsey (9-14), Byron Leftwich (10-13), J.P. Losman (8-15), Alex Smith (9-14), Aaron Rodgers (6-10), Jason Campbell (10-13), Matt Leinart (7-9), Jay Cutler (11-12), JaMarcus Russell (5-11), Brady Quinn (1-2)

So what does this prove? Largely nothing. You see some very bad quarterbacks with blazing starts to their careers, and some very good ones (i.e. Brees) with slow starts to their career. The only thing this list proves is that Edwards compares favorably to most of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the past decade - and he's a third-round pick. That, my friends, is good draft day value.

Side note before you pick apart the numbers, proclaim this exercise as useless and/or declare yourself bored because this has nothing to do with the future of the team: only two quarterbacks on this list have Super Bowl rings - Mr. Roethlisberger and Mr. Manning. They show up at opposite ends of this list.

So let's hear it. Anything interesting you find in these numbers? Are you encouraged/discouraged/remain unmoved about Edwards' potential? Does it surprise you that J.P. Losman isn't the crappiest first-round quarterback of the past decade? Feel free to discuss, whether you find this tangible or not.

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Comments

I like any numbers

That shed a positive light on Edwards. Interesting stuff though. What I like to look at is how Eli Manning and Edwards have the exact same F23 stat and then Manning’s wins just start piling on. I hope Edwards can follow a similar trajectory

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Jan 26, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Look at QB rating, too.

I don’t like the QB rating formula but it’s a stat to comepare nonetheless. Let’s say that QB Rating is indicative of that QB’s contribution to the team and not just how good the rest of the team is (say I QB riding a defense or running game to wins coughGrossmancough I think Trent stacks up well.

Guys with higher ratings and a higher winning percentage through 23 games:
Roethlisberger
Rivers
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Pennington
Culpepper
Palmer
McNabb

You are talking about a list of Pro Bowlers here guys.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

great point

that is a very good stat to point out, especially when you look at the achievements of the guys higher on the list. Certainly points in a positive direction

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Jan 26, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and it takes out guys like Young, Boller, and Grossman who I wouldn't want probably

and Vick who was a great leader and runner, but never a passer.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A higher rating could be because of good running game, defense. A “Game Manager” like Trent Dilfer can have a high QB rating. It is a good measure of propensity for mistakes. If you throw for 60% completions and don’t throw picks, you’ll have a good QB rating. As Trent gets more experience, he should really blossom. Especially because he’s about even in picks / td ratio at this point. If it was really lopsided, I would be worried.

by syrbillsfan on Jan 26, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I remember when they made the pick...

People thought JP was the answer after a strong close to that year, leading a 4th quarter comeback in Houston, etc. Edwards was an example of the Bills draft board philosphy. Everyone gets a grade and that grade is bumped up by being a position of need. When they got to the third round and Edwards was head and shoulders above everyone else’s grade, they took him. For everyone that claims we draft for needs and not overall ability this debunks that rumor.

Now as for Trent, I believe he has the tools between the ears to make himself a serviceable to great QB. I am unsure where in that spectrum he will fall. He possesses the tools that Losman didn’t have. I remember saying this after his rookie season; if JP had Trent’s smarts he would be a world class QB with his feet and arm. Given the choice between physical skills and mental, I go with mental every time in a QB.

Good post Brian.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you say this as if Trent is Drew Bledsoe back there....but I recall a few long scrambles and a couple of rushing TD's this year....

so I would say while Trent isnt as mobile as JP I wouldnt say he isnt as athletically gifted as JP…..

12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 26, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's fair.

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by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish I could find the link to this, but this is what Jauron had to say:

“J.P. has an unusually strong arm,” said Jauron. “He’s very strong. Trent’s is strong too. He’s certainly got an NFL arm, but J.P.‘s is extraordinary I would say. Trent probably has a little quicker release, a more compact release. The ball arrives similarly because of the slight difference in the velocity. I would say they’re similar in size. J.P. is probably faster and more elusive. Both of them are pretty good in the pocket. I would say Trent has a slightly better feel in the pocket only because he’s probably always had to stay there. J.P. has been able to get out and get away from people. That doesn’t mean that Trent can’t do that. I would just say he’s probably not as fast as J.P..”

Great post, Brian. I still have three primary concerns about Edwards:

1. Durability. Edwards must remain standing and be available to play. This goes without saying. Keep adding muscle and drink milk Trent!
2. Arm strength. I feel much better about Edwards in this area than I did one year ago. However, his passes still don’t have quite enough zip to my liking. Maybe they never will. I’ve seen him play for over one year. Do my eyes deceive me? I suppose Edwards could still be a good quarterback without a great arm, but will he be able to dominate? I want dominance at the game’s most important position.
3. Instincts. After several games last season, Edwards talked about defenses showing things that he hadn’t seen them do before or they hadn’t practiced against. While I am willing to cut Edwards some slack due to his inexperience and coaching ineptitude (game preparation), I also realize that football is a game, you can’t possibly be prepared for everything, and sometimes you just have to play. I would like to see Edwards be more instinctive, adjust, and improvise a little. Of course, he is still a young quarterback and has room for improvement.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t worry about his arm strengh – he can make all the throws and has shown that. Deep outs, outs, down field. He’s got the arm.

they need to get him to do more quick slants and use his quick release in that capacity.

definately concerned about durability

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Jan 26, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Quick Slants

What do you think of Evans, Hardy, Reed, Parrish, and Johnson’s ability to succeed on this route?

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well being a former WR I know its a very simple route to run. Find your spot to run the slant behind the LB and its usually a good play. jus thave to worry about the S taking your head off. But I think Evans, Reed, Parrish or Johnson can run this with no problem – not sure on hardy – he doesn’t get off of the line very quick

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Jan 27, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I worry about his confidence. He looked scared at times this year, and that is as concerning as his durability and instincts, IMO. You can’t have a guy that is scared to make the throws…

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right...

especially against Cleveland.

I don’t know what it was but he looked bad sometimes. Maybe that’s where having an experienced backup would help.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: backup

sure, that’d help for that game, but if our starting QB needs to be replaced in a game because he is timid out there, we have bigger problems than the backup….

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was never advocating replacing him...

but the backup would be able to help for that game. Sorry I didn’t clear that up. I don’t want Charlie Batch starting, I want him helping Trent.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

gotcha

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s a good point. There didn’t seem to be ANYTHING that Losman added to a game when he wasn’t actually playing in it.

Consider that two former Bills backup QBs are now QB coaches in the NFL and a third is a head coach in the AAFL… it is definitely good to have someone like that on the bench.

by Krenn on Jan 26, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AVP is a great resource for Trent...

so is Turk. Don’t get me wrong I just want someone else in there helping the kid when he needs it.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I only noticed this in the Cleveland game.

When else did you see this?

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Various times

SF, NE at times, and just other spots where it sure looked like he was scared to throw it downfield, instead choosing to check down for a few yards on 3rd downs. That may not be his doing, obviously, but if it was, then it sure is concerning.

Isn’t that Cleveland game enough to have at least some worry about him?

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One game? Naaa...

Especially since he bounced back the following week (albeit versus Kansas City). I thought he looked good in Denver, too.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scared to throw downfield

Sometimes it’s difficult to tell if the deeper receivers are open because the TV broadcast does not show all the receivers, their routes, the entire field, etc. I wish I had access to coach’s tape.

While injury is not an excuse, I did take that into consideration when watching the San Francisco game.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that’s why I’m wondering how much of it is him not wanting to throw downfield and how much is our receivers failing to get open…..

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Come to think of it...

In the San Francisco game that you mentioned, I just remembered that Chris Brown wrote in his blog that after re-watching that game (don’t know if it was coach’s tape), he said that receivers were open, but they weren’t hit for whatever reason. I’m not sure if this happened in just this game, or in a lot of other games, too. Keep in mind, Edwards only played in the first half of the San Francisco game.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

trent

is a damn smart kid. I think its the WR’s not getting open more than it is Trent being a head case. Plus maybe he doesn’t have the confidence yet to make those deep throws. But he sure does damn well need to start converting some big plays

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Jan 26, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland game

I mentioned it before, but we all forget about the Cleveland game is that strike down the middle to Royal with the game on the line to put us into position to win. That was a difficult throw at a clutch time. He’s going to be fine.

by PozDispenser on Jan 26, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point...

That was a laser. I remember that high tension throw. I was nervous. I don’t know how he threw that.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you want dominance from the quarterback position, then you’d better be trading for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or I suppose Drew Brees. No other quarterback in the NFL is “dominant”. Ben Roethlisberger has won 51 games in five years, and he’s hardly dominant. I don’t give a damn how a quarterback plays, as long as they can make plays to win games. Winning is all that matters.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What's wrong with wanting the best?

I care how a quarterback plays, often regardless of whether he wins or loses. I think how a quarterback wins or loses can be just as good of an indicator as the end result. We’ve all seen it. For example, Jake Plummer and Rex Grossman won a lot of games in Denver and Chicago, respectively. However, many of those wins were not due to Plummer and Grossman, but despite them. On the other hand, Drew Brees and Jay Cutler obviously played very well despite their team’s lack of success. In my opinion, Cutler has shown flashes of dominance and it may only be a matter of time before he becomes consistently dominant. I would like to see the same out of Trent Edwards.

Winning is all that matters until opponents look at how you are winning and exploit your weaknesses until you eventually lose. If you have a any weaknesses or limitations at quarterback, it will be very difficult to hide because he touches the ball on every play. You can’t compete at a high level trying to minimize the impact that your quarterback has on the game.

If I can’t have a dominant quarterback, then I at least want a game-winner or a game-changer, not a game-manager or a caretaker. When the game is on the line, I want a quarterback that you can hand the ball to and say “go win the game for us” rather than a quarterback that you hand the ball to and say “don’t lose the game for us”. As you know, I want the Bills to have an elite quarterback because I think that will give them the best chance to consistently compete at the highest level.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You mean like he did in Jacksonville?

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or Oakland, or Denver, or even Cleveland, though we missed the FG.

by PozDispenser on Jan 26, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

Jacksonville and Oakland in particular stand out to me. Those were great indications of Trent Edwards becoming a game-winning quarterback.

If Edwards ever gets to the point where opponents know what is coming and they can’t stop him, then I may consider him to be a dominant quarterback. For example, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Jay Cutler have all shown that they can play at a high level without the support of a running game or a good defense. So much for being predictable.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

THat's right.

I was at the Oakland game and he led a great drive to win it….

Don’t forget Washington two years ago when he led a game winning drive there against a playoff-caliber team fighting the week after Sean Taylor was murdered.

Kid’s a gamer

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 27, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not saying

I think we draft for needs but one draft pick in a year when many of us wanted a replacement for JP despite his good end to the year does not debunk anything. I’m fairly confident many at OBD did not have faith in JP just like many fans didn’t.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Jan 26, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Trent has proven by his play on the field that he's more than good enough to be an NFL QB....

everyone likes to throw out his college stats as proof that he wasnt a good pick (and his team finishing 1-11 his season year didnt help much – to go along with his injury problems because of a craptastic OLINE)

However (my personal bias/man-love aside) Im willing to say Trent steps it up yet again this year……he’s a student of the game. Im sure he’ll figure out what went wrong during the middle of year and study tape to fix it, but one thing that HAS to happen is for Trent to get more help……and if that happens……then I believe you’ll start to see the wins pile up…A LA ELI MANNING…..

12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 26, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You mean like a running style

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly...............and maybe another good receiving option or two.....

12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 26, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tight end!!

the help you refer to is why I really want us to focus on offense. I know the defense needs help and I think defensive end should be our number 1 or 2 priority this off-season. However I think we can focus on linebacker and defensive end while still building a winning formula on offense. I don’t even think it would be that hard. Bring in a center like Mack or Birk, draft a receiving tight end early in the draft (first three rounds) and then sign a veteran fullback. I think if we did those three things Edwards would be in a strong position to take the Eli Manning road forward. Plus, doing that still allows many draft picks and allocates plenty of money for defense.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Jan 26, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus I think Edwards has a leg up on Eli

He plays in a market that loves him and is supporting him unlike Eli who was booed in New York. He shouldn’t feel as much pressure as Eli did/does.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

great point

the only concern I have is that if Trent is in love with DJ as much as he is he may feel pressure to make the playoffs to save his beloved coaches job. Let’s hope thats not the case. Another thing I forgot to add above that I think will help him along the Eli road is if the Bills bring in a veteran, mentor type QB that Trent can trust as a teacher. Someone who would have Edwards’ best interest at heart. Essentially a guy that knows hes being paid to mentor the kid and make some plays if he goes down but nothing more.

Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.

by poz on Jan 26, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alex

Van Pelt could fulfill this role somewhat. He is not that far removed from being an NFL QB. I don’t know much about Hamdan but he may be very good for Trent besides their friendship. Elway benefited from Kubiak even though Kubiak was far inferior to him. Same thing with Kelly and Reich. In both cases, they were in the same age range, but the understudy had a very good mind for the game. If Hamdan can be like a Reich or Kubiak or the Cowboys guy who was Aikman’s backup, we could luck out.

Nonetheless, that said, I’m a huge advocate for very aggresively going after a veteran QB that can win games. I think a veteran QB is a top 2 need.

by Ono on Jan 26, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trent

I’ve said this all along. When you have the work ethic that Trent is, that is absoltely crucial. But when you have that work ethic along with outstanding physical attributes: 6’4", 231 lbs, 25 years old, solid arm strength, accurate. I mean this kid could have gone to ANY school out of high school. He was a blue chip recruit. He has the pedigree and the work ethic to be great.

TE is my #1 need for this team this off-season. I think its a must. The reason is, we have Evans, Lynch/Jackson and Reed as our playmakers. That is not enough. I’m falling in love with Iglesias out of OU as a WR. If we don’t draft a top-notch TE than I think drafting another WR is a must. Iglesias, Percy Harvin, Nicks from UNC and many other WR’s are out there. Bottom line is we need another playmaker and I’d prefer a pass-catching TE but woudl settle for antoher WR

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Jan 26, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Trent has proven by his play on the field that he’s more than good enough to be an NFL QB….

the only thing that concerns me right now is his durability – he has to stay healthy for a full 16 games this year I think or its looking like we’ll have ourselves a Tim Connelly (just not as many missed games).

WR#2 and TE are priorities for Trent. WR#2 might be on the roster so TE is a vital area for improvement from the “inner circle”

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Jan 26, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PS - I love Trent

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another fun Trent Edwards fact, directly from my calendar:

Since the common NFL Draft began in 1967, Trent Edwards had the third-most victories among any rookie quarterback drafted in the third round. Only Buffalo’s Joe Ferguson (1973) and Indianapolis’ Chris Chandler (1988), who each had 9 victories as rookies, won more games.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Worst case scenario is we have a very good backup for 10 years.

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Jan 26, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a big Trent Edwards fan

He is a gamer. You just have to admire a football player who loves to play the game and improve his own game. Puttintg on 10 pounds of muscle and spending extra off time with his receivers speaks volumes. And his ability to bring the team back in the fourth quarter. Even with the concussion and our coaching deficiencies he is ahead of the curve. Give him a good center, a good receiving TE and a game plan that can attack the 3-4 and look out. A mentor is a solid idea. When he has his mojo he is as good as anyone. Thank you Bill Walsh for the tip. He’s a genuine third round steal.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Jan 26, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

FYI – that whole Bill Walsh thing didn’t exactly pan out like everyone said. Marv and Bill were talking after the draft and he just made a comment on how he thought it was a good pick. A lot of people make it out to sound like Bill called Marv regarding this issue alone – and this wasn’t the case. I was watching some interview with Marv when he was “GM” and thats what he said about the whole Bill Walsh thing. I’ve seen it get blown out of proportion way too many times.

I agree on his desire to win, spending extra time with receivers, his work ethic. all commendable. The CLE game still gets me nervous as I hope he never goes into that shell again. If he throws 3 more picks again in the 1st quarter i’d rather him keep on plugging away and keep tryhing to win instead of going into a shell.

If he gets good against the 3-4 we’re all set – good point Keuka – genuine 3rd round steal. but we’ll have to see how it pans out. as Berman says “THAT’s why they play the games”.

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Jan 26, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for putting another rumor to death. I thought Marv heard predraft.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Jan 26, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

walsh called marv AFTER the draft and gave his vote of confidence in what a QB they had selected. Still I give all the credit in the world for teh Bills having him ranked that high and for selecting him. We have a unique talented QB in #5

MARVelous

by MARVelous on Jan 26, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

First Round Busts

Would like to see how many 1st round busts there are:
Tim Couch
Cade McNown
Jim Drunkenmiller
Akili Smith
Andre Ware
Alex Smith
Ryan Leaf

by BuffaloWhiner on Jan 26, 2009 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The entire list of busts from the past decade is in the post. That list does not include Druckenmiller, Ware or Leaf, who all were drafted more than a decade ago.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I believe you’re forgetting one guy that actually impacted us…..

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope he has Akili Smith....

just kiddin’

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trent's Health

I’m curious if anyone else believes in the theory that Trent actually hurt his groin in preseason and he was never quite the quaterback we saw as a rookie. Yes he performed better because of experience but I believe he had a nagging groin problem throughout the year. During his rookie campaign he rarely took a sack. He was able to make the quick little side step move in the pocket which allowed him to get rid of the ball quickly. He never seem to show this ability through out this year. He seemed to play his best ball after he had extra time to rest the groin such as the Chargers and Denver games.

by Chelse on Jan 26, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trent hurt his groin in the preseason?

That’s news to me…

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

During his rookie campaign he rarely took a sack. He was able to make the quick little side step move in the pocket which allowed him to get rid of the ball quickly. He never seem to show this ability through out this year.

I vividly remember Edwards side-stepping a rush and delivering a 37-yard strike to Lee Evans in Jacksonville. His next pass, he threw a game-winning score.

Nah. Edwards’ groin was fine.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He hurt his leg when he and Marshawn collided which made him miss a preseason game. I’m not sure if he actually hurt his groin at that point but he never showed the movement in the pocket that he had in his rookie season.

by Chelse on Jan 26, 2009 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pocket Movement

I didn’t notice a difference from 2007 to 2008. I will have to watch the game tapes again to get a closer look.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He hurt his knee on that I though

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Make sure you review last years tape. I’m not very good on the statistic part but I believe Trent averaged less than a sack a game during his rookie campaign compared to over two a game this year.

by Chelse on Jan 26, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sacks allowed per game

Just make sure not to include the games that Losman played ;)

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Since you seem to have a good eye...

What do you think of Trent’s passes outside the numbers, to the sidelines, deep outs, deep digs, deep comebacks, etc.?

Everyone know that Trent loves throwing to the tight end. The tight end is usually in the middle of the field where the passes are shorter than throwing to the perimeter. I wonder if there is something to that…not enough arm, not enough confidence in his arm, or if it is just part of his growth and development?

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edwards took 23 sacks in 14 starts. That’s still less than 2 per game, which is a pretty solid stat.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No doubt there was a huge jump in sacks per game with JP vs. Trent.

by Chelse on Jan 26, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I believe Trent has the arm strength and proved it last year against the Dolphins when he was firing the ball all over the place in the cold of Buffalo. Unfortunately he was not able to push off as much as he wanted to this year due to the groin.

I did go back and checked out some stats of games Trent played in, who cares about JP.
2007
Jets – 3 sacks
Cowboys – 3 sacks
Ravens – 2 sacks
Washington – 0 sacks
Dolphins – 0 sacks
Cleveland – 0 sacks
Giants – 3 sacks (these did not occur until the weather got bad and we were forced to throw
Eagles – 0 sacks

As you can see his last 5 games they gave up 3 sacks and that was against the Giants

2008
Seattle – 1 sack
Jacksonville – 3 sacks
Raiders – 3 sacks
St Louis – 4 sacks
San Diego – 0 sacks
Miami – 2 sacks
Jets – 5 sacks
NE. – 2 sacks
Denver – 1 sack

As you can see he was taking many more sacks this year, the two games where he took the fewest sacks were after he had a chance to rest (San Diego and Denver) games.

by Chelse on Jan 26, 2009 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

Very interesting. Nice work. I think there are many factors to consider.

Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.

by Fort Worth on Jan 26, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the biggest factor to consider is that Buffalo had a re-adjusting LT and a new blocking scheme. How quickly we forget how much crap the Bills’ offensive line was taking at the beginning of the season.

Seriousy… Edwards’ groin was fine up through the SF game.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

All year it was the OL’s fault for sacks. Now it’s Trent’s groin? Don’t forget he held the ball a bit long a few times. A few times blitzers came unblocked.

You can’t just blame one area for the sacks, which weren’t even that big of a deal to start with. Less than 2 a game is a pretty good for an OL. Our craptastic D averages less than 2 sacks, which is atrocious. Our OL shouldn’t get crap for giving up that few with Edwards in there….

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Jan 26, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I looked back in history and...

Joe Montana was 14-9 (3rd round, #82)
Steve Young was 9-14 (round 1, supplemental draft)
Jim Kelly was 8-15 (round 1 #14)

So what does this tell us?

Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Section 336 Row 13

by keysh67 on Jan 26, 2009 7:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just that Edwards’ start is solid, but ultimately means nothing. He just needs to keep getting better.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 26, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

in the worlds of Emril.....

BAM!

12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 27, 2009 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trent !!!

I Really hope he can live up the expectations. He is a great guy, I hope he can stay healthy because it’s really an issue right now. If he can stay playing, he will grow up and we could go with him.
He is doing a great job with few playmekers, and everybody praising Matt Cassel who has some of the bests WR and TEs of NFL.
Great post Mr. Galliford. It remembered us we have some hopes for the future :)

by hightower_mc on Jan 26, 2009 10:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs