Fairly factual thoughts

by kaisertown on Oct 14, 2009 3:38 AM EDT Comment 37 comments

It can be tough to judge arm strength while watching/scouting QBs. The trick is to see how much air gets under the ball. It's yet another example of science being our friend. The harder a QB throws the ball, the straighter of a line it can travel on. And remember, arm strength isn't about how hard a player is capable of throwing, it's about how hard a player is comfortable throwing and how much they can put on passes without losing touch and accuracy. So it's ok when a QB lofts one in there over a LB or on a fly route, but if there's a good amount of arc on 10-15 yard outs and comebacks, he doesn't have a strong arm.

I know that people don't need more evidence of how bad Jauron and the inner circle have been, but here's some anyways. There's been a lot of mention of mention of Donahoe lately as the possibility of a new GM is discussed and it got me to thinking about how many Donahoe players are still here. Think back to the end of last season, three years into Jauron's tenure and just 9 or 10 months ago. Who were the best players on the roster? If I had to pick the twelve (I choose 12 after making the list because I think it's where there's a bit of a talent drop off) best players who were on last year's team, they would be:

Lee Evans, Jason Peters, Marcus Stroud, Terrence McGee, Marhsawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, Poz, Jabari Greer, Aaron Schobel, Brian Moorman, Kawika Mitchell, Donte Whitner. All I can say is, what the hell? Only half of them were Jauron additions ... in three years! And some of those guys were average Kawika Mitchell, top 10 dissapointment Whitner and a middle of the first round RB who has been good, but isn't exactly a special player.

I keep thinking that Buffalo has a lot of good players and a good young core, but has only been missing some star power and that if Edwards stepped up at QB and a couple young guys made some strides, this roster could be a good one. But where has the development of these young players been? Whitner was showing some this year, Poz is good when he's healthy, but he was a polished prospect. Fred Jackson has come a long way and Marshawn has always been solid here, but this roster is so desperate for great players and Jauron simply hasn't been able to find or develop enough of them.

I've also realized that the way the Donahoe era went is a complete shame. He made some really great moves. We had a defense with Schobel, Pat Williams, Sam Adams, Spikes, Fletcher, McGee, Clements and Lawyer Milloy. That's a ridiculous group and those top five defenses were no fluke. It's a shame because Donahoe could never put together a solid offensive line and made some serious gaffes (JP Losman, Mike Williams). It's also a shame that those teams were the closest we've come to championship calibre since the mid nineties.

Dwight: I am going to begin this process with a simple test of intelligence and mental dexterity. What is the best color?
Andy: White, because it contains all other colors.
Dwight: Wrong. Black. It is the most dominant. How do you make a table?
Andy: You make a chair, but you don't sit on it.
Dwight: What is the capital of Maine?
Andy: The capital of Maine is Montpelier, Vermont, which is near Ithaca, New York, where I went to Cornell.
Dwight: Okay, also, moratorium on Cornell talk. Don't wanna hear about it. Forget your personal history, and learn the history of this company.
Andy: Should not be a problem. I minored in history in the Ivy League school which I attended.
Dwight: You're not off to a very good start, Bernard.
Andy: I agree. But in another way, I am off to a very good start, wouldn't you say?

What would Edwards have to do from here on out for the Bills to not draft a QB in the first two rounds of the 2010 draft? How realistic is it that he does that?

How the hell does Cedric Benson have the most rushing yards in the league?

Would anybody have a problem with the Bills starting the same three LBs next year as they planned to this season (Mitchell, Poz, Ellison) if they do a good job taking care of other needs (QB, OT, DL)?

How many tradable players do the Bills really have? And who is the most likely player to be traded before the deadline and over the offseason? Which player do you think the Bills should trade away next offseason?

This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.

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I enjoyed this read kaiser

this is in my opinon the perfect fanpost so I’m going to rec it. It has an interesting commentary, raises some good questions, then throws it all out for discussion. Nice job.

First, I totally agree on Donahoe’s defense. The other day I had a conversation with a buddy about how good that defense was and what a shame it didn’t do more. Look at that defense, its astoundingly good. But then again, we had a great offense with Bledsoe Moulds Price Henry that went to waste too.

I have to disagree with your sentiment of Marshawn as nothing special. He is a very special player, he doesnt go down, is a great receiver and fights till the whistle. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson kaiser and its not fair to chastize our star players because they are not superstars. I also think McGee is the most underrated corner in the NFL. I’ve said this before but there was a statistic this off-season that the worst DB’s to have your star receiver go against were first, Nnamdi Asomugha a few other guys and then McGee fifth. Apparently it was based on number of touchdowns allowed to number to times that DB was thrown at and Asomugha was only thrown at 35 times while McGee was thrown at over 100. And still, McGee only gave up 1 TD. He is a star. I also think Schobel is a star, and I never jumped off his bandwagon like many here. He was hurt and that happens to people. He is having a monster year and he is a very good player, a star most teams would love to have rushing the passer. Marcus Stroud is a star and I know everyone is down on him because we like to look at stats and say “look how bad we are in [blank] category” but in my opinion stats are the biggest lies humans use. They can be made to say anything. I like to base things on what I see (which is why ESPN is terrible at NFL analysis, they look at box scores – love live local reporting) and Marcus makes a lot of plays for us and seems to fight harder when our team is deflated, making tackles in the backfield and the waving his arms trying to pump us up. Unfortunately, it doesnt work because our defense doesn’t respond but he is a star. Anyway, I’m rambling.

Let’s see if your theory of Jauron additions holds true this year: top 12 players this season (oh wait, everyone is hurt).

Cedric Benson is a clear cut lesson in not abandoning an early pick who is young because he is not as good as you wanted right away. Donte Whitner is emerging, as I’ve been saying he will. He is not even 24 yet and he has so much experience that he is going to be a great leader and playmaker on this defense. I bet the next coach keeps him around. I know hes not making all the picks and sacks all the fans want but he will, give him time. In my opinoin hes been a top 3 defender for us this year. Hes flying in to stuff the run, hes around the ball in the secondary, and he our running game has been gashed since he and Poz are gone. Way to go Donte, hes responding to fan criticism and I think it shows character. Please hurry back because our defense misses him, maybe that will show everyone calling for his head to ease up, hes good.

I would have a problem starting the same three linebackers. I love Kawika and I love Poz but Ellison is a very obvious weak point. I dont get how he is still starting(not counting the injury rash) for this team. I wouldn’t have a problem if we spent time trading or signing and putting money on the o-line cuz we have bigger problems and I think our defense is nearly set at every other position. I like McGee and McKelvin and I think Whitner/Scott is a fine duo. I like our other linebackers, love our DTs and I think Maybin should emerge to compliment Schobel.

Tradeable players: NONE. Its a fact. We have nothing anyone wants that wouldnt really hurt us to lose. It would hurt us too much to consider trading Jackson, Lynch, Schobel, Whitner, McGee, Stroud, Williams, Wood, Levitre, Bell, Hang, Evans, Poz. Injuries won’t let us trade Kawika, McKelvin, Butler, Schouman. Nobody would give up value for Roscoe, Scott, Ellison, Kelsay, Edwards. I think its a nightmare to trade TO and that its stupid. In my opinion lets get a new coach and GM and show the world we are ready and serious about getting better and I bet he wants to come back and I will welcome him. As much as people hate on TO, he is a competitor and a tough determined football player and I bet he doesnt want to leave on a sour note if a guy like Shanahan is here next year. Also, if you trade TO after 5 game no one will ever play hard in Buffalo again. What a bunch of losers we will be throwing in the towel after five games and trading away our prized off-season acquisition. A bunch of quitters. We will be the laughing stock of the league and players won’t come here or play hard here. The only trade idea I like is Fitzpatrick and Roscoe for Brady Quinn as suggested by dabillsr in his fanshot. It gives options at QB should Edwards continue to falter and allow the next regime some options as well.

Finally, to all you fans who think its a pipe dream to get a big name I only have to wonder how you can say such things and then whine and complain that we are in a ten year non playoff rut. We are in this rut because for the Bills its always a pipe dream to get top notch talent. Just so you know, Dan Snyder has already announced he wants Jon Gruden over Mike Shanahan to be his next coach (he doesn;t want to give up control over player personnel to Shanahan). While we sit here belittling such hopes for great coaches other teams are already lining up to make moves. Great. We have an inner circle that stinks. Ralph doesn’t like strong GMs. We need an offense. We have strong running backs and no offensive line. Shanahan is the perfect remedy to all of this. He wants player personnel control and so a weak GM is a great mix with him and he would make the bold moves that the inner circle never could to fit his own Shanny vision. He is an offensive mastermind and builds powerful o-lines and ground games. Perfect for our team if you ask me. Lets do this Ralph, go get Shanny.

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Oct 14, 2009 4:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So many things I disagree with on on poz, but they have been beat to death. If you can't see it by now, I won't convince you

Finally, to all you fans who think its a pipe dream to get a big name I only have to wonder how you can say such things and then whine and complain that we are in a ten year non playoff rut.

There is a big difference between thinking it is a pipe dream that a big name will come to the Bills and not wanting one of the big name coaches.

Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes

by Joe P. on Oct 14, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is a big difference between thinking it is a pipe dream that a big name will come to the Bills and not wanting one of the big name coaches.

Oh, this I have no problem with. If you don’t want a big name head coach I won’t have anything against that, that is why we blog here after all right? To convince each other of why our opinion is right. I just disagree with people who say we will never get a big name coach even IF we want one.

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Oct 14, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just disagree with people who say we will never get a big name coach even IF we want one.

I agree here with you Poz. Circumstance like Cowher’s proximity to his family would be a burden to most teams – not just the Bills.

I think if the Bills wanted a Shanahan or whom ever – they could put enough cash and other incentives for that to happen.

I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
Trent Edwards - Backup QB until furthur notice. Care to prove me wrong Trent?

by J2 on Oct 14, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would like one of the big names

I was trying to say that just because I think it is a pipe dream doesn’t mean I wouldn’t like to see the dream come true.

Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes

by Joe P. on Oct 14, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love Kawika and I love Poz but Ellison is a very obvious weak point.

I like Kawika’s upside, but if last year was any indication, for every big play, there was at least 1 blunder. Ellison may be undersized but he’s almost always in position to make the play, maybe not a big play, but he is dependable. The point is moot now anyhow with Mitchell out on IR. I wish we had three Poz’s out there.

by syrbillsfan on Oct 14, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish we had three Poz’s out there.

agreed!

The problem I have with Ellison is that he may be dependable but hes dependable to be average.

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Oct 14, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

having 3 pozs would be the least plays made by a linebacking corps since...well...our linebacking corps.

Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!

by JPH on Oct 17, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m usually on the opposite side of these long responses.

I have to disagree with your sentiment of Marshawn as nothing special

I half agree with you. He’s definitely a great player. But if Marshawn Lynch is special, then half the teams in the league have a special player at RB and doesn’t that go against the definition of special? I also didn’t mean for all that to be shot at Lynch. Marhsawn Lynch isn’t the problem, the problem is that he’s probably the 2nd best player this coaching staff had added in it’s first three seasons. That isn’t good enough.

I mostly agree with you about the other guys, except for Schobel. He’s a really solid player, but he’s an average starter at right defensive end. When there’s guys like Jared Allen, Freeney, Williams, Peppers, Abraham, Tuck, Cole, etc …. then he’s jsut average. And it’s not Schobel’s fault, he’s a good player. And your right that McGee is really good and Stroud is really good and Kyle WIlliams and poz and Whitner are all good too. But when you add them all up, even if McGee is a top 5-10 CB and Stroud is a top 5-10 DT and you’ve got a bunch of good, but average players around them, you end up with a solid, but average defense which is exactly what we’ve got.

I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute

by kaisertown on Oct 14, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marshwan is a special runner, he deserves a better line in front of him. He also deserves a lead blocker, sending Marshawn out behind a true fullback like Neil would make a world of difference. If we actually had an OC that understood that we should be a run first team, a power run first team then we could use playaction and Marshawn would become a God-like figure around here. He is such a powerful runner and he is wasted in our dumb pass-first oriented offense.

Marcus Stroud makes plays, he has experience and it is real easy to see it. He’s quick to diagnose Screens, he probably leads the lead in bat downs & tipped balls.

I think its a nightmare to trade TO and that its stupid

I completely disagree. There are a few teams that really could benefit from the addition of TO such as Pittsburgh and Baltimore, I would definitely help them get to the playoffs or get deep into the playoffs. I’m sure a 4th rounder could be extracted for him.
I like TO as a competitor but next year he will be 41 and we have two young guys that can take his place (johnson & Hardy) plus untill we officially get a real QB that has an arm, it’s useless to spend 13M on receivers.

We will be the laughing stock of the league

We already are and have been for many years now.

I have nothing left to say, these Bills have sucked me dry of any hope. Loosing to a team that completes 2-17 for 23y with 1 INT, that is beyond pitiful!

by keysh67 on Oct 16, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TO won't be 41.

maybe you were just exaggerating and i missed it, but he’ll be 37 i believe.

Also, when has hardy proved he can even step on the field at the NFL level? and as much as like stevie, he hasn’t proven anything either.

Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!

by JPH on Oct 17, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I liked Donahue

I liked Donahue and at least he was a GM not some COO or whatever. The Bills organization is so pathetic they can’t even give a guy the title GM. The only two picks I didn’t like by Donahue were Losman and Magahee. However, I would prefer Losman over Edwards any day- you can bash me for that comment Edwards lovers but thats just how i feel

by csc06258 on Oct 14, 2009 6:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dude, it doesnt take an Edwards lover to bash that comment. I like Edwards, don’t love him, and I do think hes being robbed by playing behind the worst o-line we’ve ever seen. That said, I think you are applying short term memory if you’d rather have Losman. Right now both options are not what we want, but Losman…well lets not get back into it. Just suffice to say you dont have to be an Edwards lover to be happy Losman is gone.

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Oct 14, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now this I agree with 100%

Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes

by Joe P. on Oct 14, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WE DID IT!!!!

we agreed on something for the first time in months!!

Let’s try another one Joe…..I love America! and you say……

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Oct 14, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hot chicks are awesome

I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
Trent Edwards - Backup QB until furthur notice. Care to prove me wrong Trent?

by J2 on Oct 14, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL!!!! I can agree with both of those statements :-)

Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes

by Joe P. on Oct 14, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahahah

so we all agree then that this equation equals “hot American chicks are awesome”?

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Oct 15, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

i am a losman fan so i am partial to losman. And anyone who is asked the question, "would you boo if you were a fan paying to watch you play? with the response by Edwards “I am not a Buffalo Bill Fan so I cant answer that” I am not a fan of. As of that comment and his girly play, I officially like him less than My most hated player in the NFL…Tom Brady… well just as much :)

by csc06258 on Oct 15, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm with you on Losman

by jimkutica on Oct 14, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with csc06258 that is !!

by jimkutica on Oct 14, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Loseman will never start another game in the NFL.

Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes

by Joe P. on Oct 14, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know I love me some > 2:1 turnover to TD ratio. I would love if Edwards had Losman’s arm. Or if Losman had Edward’s head. Whichever is prettier :)

by syrbillsfan on Oct 14, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Loseman have small hands?

We would have to do a hand transplant as well. I can hear the Inner Circle now:

Trent Edwards, QB. A man barely able to throw down field. Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. We have the technology. We have the capability to build the world’s first bionic QB. Trent Edwards will be that man. Better than he was before. Better, stronger, faster. He can save us. He can save us all!!!!!

Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes

by Joe P. on Oct 14, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

do we really like trent's head

he appears to have no confidence and hes completely psyched himself out. he looks totally lost at the moment.

Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!

by JPH on Oct 17, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arm Strength

I think I missed your point…
Regardless, you bring up a few good points. Donahoe did bring in defensive talent, but maybe that was an influence of the defensive coach we had at the time? Not sure.
Also, you mention Pat Williams. He was inherited by Donahoe and subesequently let go by him after the 2004 season. That was an awful move.

Donte Whitner is a star. You don’t have to score touchdowns like Ed Reed to be a star safety in this league. Ed Reed is a superstar and does things way above and beyond his responsibilities. Like Poz said, just because these players are not superstars, doesn’t mean they aren’t stars. If everyone on this football team played as hard as Marshawn every play, we’d have the opposite record we have right now.

Also on a reply to Poz above, I think that the only pipe dream we have may be that Ralph gets a powerful GM to come in. He doesn’t want to give all the decision making to one man, because he got burned by Donahoe. I honestly don’t blame him for that. You learn from experience, and he got burned. Which is why I agree that Shanahan may be perfect because he would GM, but not be President. Then you let Modrak scout, and Brandon sell tickets to allow Shanny to spend money on players. Let’s be honest, if there’s one thing Brandon can do it’s sell tickets.

"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"

by willgarr15 on Oct 14, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well.....

Pat Williams left on his own. He was offered a contract but turned it down because he didn’t like the direction of the team. It happens. I’ll have to find an article supporting that later.

Whitner is no star. Not even close. He was playing well through a couple games this year, but at this point he’s still nothing more than a solid starter. Stars make plays, Whitner makes one or two a year.

Who cares if he got “burned” by Donahoe? He has been absolutely torched by Jauron and the inner circle crap. And I personally consider that a bigger failure than Donahoe anyhow. He should continue with the failed committee approach? Or should he go with what seems to work best around the league (and in most business settings) and have one decision maker at the top?

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 14, 2009 12:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Who cares if he got "burned" by Donahoe? He has been absolutely torched by Jauron and the inner circle crap.

Exactly. At least Ralph has had success with the GM model before (Polian, Butler) and his problems with those guys were never about power or football related decisions. I think the Levy Jauron mess is far worse than what Donahoe left behind.

And hiring a GM doesn’t have to equate to giving huge amounts of control and power away. I’d be OK with firing John Guy, giving the new GM that job and some of the authority that Jauron currently has. So the GM has the biggest and final say, much like Jauron does now, but obviously the head coach has to have a pretty big voice, Russ Brandon will be involved in major decisions and a couple key football guys, like Modrak would be working with and advising the new GM. I think that has more of a consensus feel to it than hiring a guy like Cohwer, Shanahan or Holmgren would.

by kaisertown on Oct 14, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

. I think the Levy Jauron mess is far worse than what Donahoe left behind.

I wasn’t a big supporter of Levy getting hired – hindsight tells me I was on the right track. I like his ideas – but he’s just wasn’t going to get this team where it needed/needs to be.

I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
Trent Edwards - Backup QB until furthur notice. Care to prove me wrong Trent?

by J2 on Oct 15, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is why I agree that Shanahan may be perfect because he would GM, but not be President. Then you let Modrak scout, and Brandon sell tickets to allow Shanny to spend money on players. Let’s be honest, if there’s one thing Brandon can do it’s sell tickets.

Wow, you and I are thinking totally alike on this. I think Shanny’s biggest demand is the control, we can and should, give it to him.

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Oct 14, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ed Reed is a superstar

and I agree the Reeds of this world are rare. I think when you get a solid starter out of a first round pick that you can build a defense around then you’ve done well. I think Whitner is amazing in that he came in and started and we can shift him between SS and FS depending on personnel.

This teams problem is that they are desperate and they are pressing which accounts for stupid mistakes. They have the talent level to go up against most teams. Parrish’s bonehead move last week had to do with trying badly to make something spectacular happen.

This team plays hard they just need to calm down and relax and not press. I watch the Redskins on a regular basis which is a team in tailspin mode. They play very hard but it doesn’t matter so I don’t chock it up to playing hard. If the O-line and Trent can calm down, they’ll be just fine.

by Ono on Oct 14, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Losman?? Do you remember the Jets game last year?

If you are truly a Bills fan, you can not seriously have any good feelings about JP, or Rob Johnson for that matter.

by o.c.blazerfan on Oct 14, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that play never should have been called. Losman won the game, although not pretty. But that loss was Dicks Fault. I almost cried after that horrible play call. Marshawn was averaging like 6 yards a carry that game and was eating the Jets alive. Just hand him the ball!!!!

by csc06258 on Oct 15, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trades

I would trade TO, Parrish and then one out of Kelsey, Schobel, and Denney….

Not only would this save some coin, coin we could use to hire competent coaches/staff. But it would also allow us to get some of our younger players on the field: Steve Johnson, Chris Ellis, Aaron Maybin for some valuable PT and evaluation.

by Harris on Oct 14, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would get as much as I could for Maybin now, unless we plan on switching to a 3-4 with our new coach

by csc06258 on Oct 15, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ellison is a free agent at the end of the year if the salary cap stays in place. We’d have to re-sign him in order for him to start for us. Just sayin.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Oct 16, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs