Keys to Victory: Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers
Coming off a hard fought, mistake-filled overtime win against the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills travel down south to take on the Carolina Panthers this weekend. It'll be a battle of two-win teams with solid rushing offenses, poor passing offenses and downright awful run defenses. It could be an ugly game, or a boring game, and more than likely a quick game. Just like last week, it's a very winnable road game for the Bills, assuming they don't self-destruct. What do they need to do to pull out another victory? Let's find out.
Slow the Panthers' ground game: Notice I didn't say shut down the Panthers' run game. I don't think this defense is capable of that. Instead, if they can slow DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart down, avoiding the 8-10+ yard chunks, they will have a chance to better control the game. After last week's disaster trying to shut down the Jets' running game, the pressure will be on going against a team that rushed for 267 yards itself a week ago. Don't expect a a ton of success for our rush defense, but a solid performance will go a long way in deciding the outcome of this game.
Force Delhomme to make plays: To add on to the first key, if the Bills can force the Panthers to struggle on the ground, they will have multiple opportunities to make plays against Jake Delhomme. A week after intercepting six passes, they could be in line for more turnovers this week. Of course, that's easier said than done. The best way to put the ball in Delhomme's hands is to force the Panthers into 2nd and 3rd and longs. First down plays are going to be huge this week. Keeping the Panthers out of short yardage situations will be crucial. I'd much rather let Delhomme try to win the game. Good things tend to happen to the defense when that happens.
Continue to frustrate Steve Smith: If Steve Smith is frustrated, I'm sure Delhomme will know it. Each week that goes by with Smith being less and less involved in the offense means that Delhomme could start forcing him passes soon to keep him interested/happy. If that happens this week, the Bills need to be ready to jump all over these passes. Keep doubling Smith like every other team has so far and hope Delhomme's mistakes continue.
Control the ball/clock on offense: The Bills have the worst rush defense in the league, but the Panthers also have a terrible one themselves, ranking 29th overall. Besides shutting down the Panthers ground game, the best way to keep them at bay is to keep them off the field. Avoiding poor field position by churning out yards, and hopefully finally scoring some points again, will be a big part of any Bills' victory this week. Running the ball well will also...
Keep the ball out of Fitzpatrick's hands: If you didn't know, I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is quite the terrible quarterback. If the Bills are relying on him to make big plays and lead them to victory, they're in big trouble this week. Fitzpatrick is mistake prone and inaccurate, not exactly traits a team should be relying on. A strong running game will take the pressure off him, and will also open up the play action passing game, which might suit Fitzpatrick's strengths best. He's done a solid job of making quick decisions and moves outside the pocket quite well. When they do put it in his hands, the Bills would be wise keeping him in situations where he can make the easy play and avoid the crushing mistake.
Commit fewer mistakes: As in, commit fewer mistakes than last week AND commit fewer mistakes than the Panthers make. The Bills had eight penalties and two turnovers against the Jets last week, but the Jets had a killer 14 penalties and six turnovers. It's unlikely the Bills can win another game by committing as many mistakes as they did last week, so that area needs to continue improving.
Continue the OL improvement: Last week, the Bills young offensive line played much better than they had in prior weeks. The Jets had just one sack, while the Bills were able to rush for a solid 142 yards on the ground. That uptick in production needs to continue this week and going forward. Jamon Meredith gets another start at right tackle, while the other three first year starters (Demetrius Bell, Andy Levitre, Eric Wood) all continue to get more comfortable in their roles. Going against a poor rushing defense in Carolina, this young unit has a chance to continue to steady improvement this week. It'll definitely be needed.
*****
This is a simpler game to figure what the Bills need to do to get a victory. The strengths of the Bills offense (running the ball) match-up against the weakness of the Panthers' defense, while the Bills defense knows exactly what it needs to do to shut down the Panthers' offense (slow the run game). This game will likely come down to turnovers and whoever commits the fewest mistakes. It's not a game we've seen too often, so it makes for an interesting match-up. The Bills can win this game, though it won't be all that easy. Enjoy the game and Go Bills!
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Good Post!
Cannot agree more. If Delhomme is forced to throw the ball, that will only help the Bills. I do worry about the Bills defense stopping the run, especially since they have failed to do so for 3-4 weeks now. Bills need to get some turnovers as well.
by BuffaloWhiner on Oct 24, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well the other side to the Delhomme saga is Steve Smith
And Smith has made a nice living catching Jake’s poorly thrown balls. In other words, you ARE better off with the ball in Jake’s hands, however, if you don’t contain Smith he can quickly take over a game.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bills' Passing Game Could Spell the Difference
I have to disagree with the comments about Fitzgerald and the passing game. Once Fitz settled down as the replacement to Carson Palmer last year he was quite accurate and made few mistakes (which is why they started winning a lot of games under him). And remember that in his first NFL game for the Rams he threw for over 300 yards — something I don’t believe Trent has ever done. If you have over 300 yards of completions a fair number of your passes had to have been on target.
My gut tells me that the Bills’ passing game finally comes alive tommorrow against a very weak Carolina secondary, and that that will lead to a Bills upset victory. But it all depends on the young o-line containing Peppers and his friends. If they can do that this team will be 3-4 and all of a sudden Dick Jauron’s seat won’t be quite as hot as it has been (whether that’s a good or bad thing is another question).
by Macktruck on Oct 24, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No body wants the ball in their #2 QB's hands to win the game.
Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that point. A terrible QB is what we have been watching the past three years including J.P.. I like Trent as our #1 QB but he hasn’t produced enough to take us to the next level. I also like that we haven’t given up on him, because he has shown some upside, just at a very inconsistent basis. I am not going to label Ryan as terrible, but he is more of a risk taker. He will throw a pick 6, but then hit Evans on a slant for a 37 yard TD. Although this is a wash, it should thin out the box a little more often.
Excuses are a sign of weakness!!!!!!
by VanScottM on Oct 24, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True – Fitzpatrick’s first career start was 310 yards (21 more than Edwards’ best)… But in his third career start he threw five picks.
by Krenn on Oct 24, 2009 12:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
A very weak Carolina secondary???
You do know Carolina is the #2 passing defense in the league right? And their pass rush has came alive the past 3 games, which greatly improves a secondary.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cincy started winning
because they played 3 terrible teams. Fitz had a game with 55 yards and another with 129 yards (on 30 attempts!) in there. Sorry, they weren’t winning because of him. Cedric Benson ran for 171 and 111 yards in those two games.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Oct 24, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The third win was against the Redskins where Fitz had his 2nd best statistical game as a pro. Fitz went 16/29 for 209 yards. Thing is, 79 yards came on a screen pass to Benson and one of the TDs came on that drive. So that’s 130 yards on the other 29 pass attempts (4.8 ypa). Cincy also opened the game with a TD on a drive that Fitz didn’t even attempt a pass. Cincy won those games in spite of Fitz, just like Buffalo did on sunday.
If nobody is going to give Edwards credit for occasionally beating up on bad teams (ie: KC, DEN, JAX, TB,. and not that we should be giving him credit for that) then why are we talking up Fitz for squeeking out 14-0 and 16-6 wins over Cleveland and Kansas City?
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Oct 24, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is
People aren’t really talking up Fitz for what he’s done (although for some reason a select few are). Instead they seem to be inflating his ability and talking him up because of what Trent hasn’t done.
The old saying sure is true here…the most popular player is the backup QB…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Oct 25, 2009 1:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
The grass is always greener…
Be careful what you wish for…
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Oct 25, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even last week on 2nd/3rd and long, Fox hesitated to put the ball in Delhomme’s hands. They used a lot of draws out of the shotgun last week on those downs that did work. So even in those situations, the Bills have to be ready for the run.
Great post as usual, not over simplifying it and showing us what the Bills should do to come out with their 3rd win of the season. Who knows, after this week the Bills could be tied for 2nd in the division if Oakland’s pass defense can shut down the Sanchise like they did with McRib last week.
Optomistic as always, Go Bills. (and the northeast division leading Sabres)
by dragonwag0n on Oct 24, 2009 10:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Fox always wants to run every game and against everybody
This has been his forte since he became a head coach. Even if you shut down the run completely, he will keep at it. And with 2 equally dominating RBs alternating, they never wear down. Your only way out of that is by jumping out to a 2+ TD lead. Otherwise come the 4th quarter, and your run defense will be too tired to stop anything.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
Fitzpatrick is being overlooked in this matchup. I know he isn’t accurate, and has sort of a noodle arm. But bottom line is, the Panthers haven’t seen him in this offense. He has weapons, and I think his ability to audible out of poor situations like last week vs the Jets will be the difference. That OT play to Evans from the 30 yd line that Evans caught at the 5 and was ruled a no-catch because he bobbled it. If you remember, Fitzpatrick audibled out of a run on that play, took a 5 step drop, and uncorked it to Evans in the perfect spot. He may not have the 50 yard bomb in him, but you don’t need that with Evans and Owens. If you get single coverage, a simple lay it out there ball of 25-40 yards is sufficient.
I expect to see a lot of PA and roll outs this week. Fitzpatrick has better pocket mobility and awareness then Edwards, and let’s face it, you can’t play much worse than Trent has the last 3 games. So, with that said, I think the Bills win this week. Chris Draft in at Strong Side LB gives us more size to stop the run. We’ll still get shredded on the ground, but our pass defense won’t allow the big play. As long as AVP doesn’t let Fitzpatrick wing it around too much and throw picks, this game is the Bills to lose
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
by MARVelous on Oct 24, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can’t play much worse than Trent has the last 3 games?
I beg to differ. You are getting ready to go up against a QB that has played much worse.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
We understand, believe me, but I don’t think that you could have actually watched the last few Bills’ games — something only true fans could do.
by Sixteenthback on Oct 24, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Special teams
I would add that we need to improve all aspects of special teams play. Sometimes you have to catch a punt on the 12 yard line. We have to avoid special teams penalties.
by jpheff on Oct 24, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the Bills can afford to double cover Steve Smith. The Bills will need to keep an extra defender in the box—meaning that Smith will see a lot of single coverage on downs other than 3rd and long.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
by Ron From NM on Oct 24, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Boy I hope you are right!
Steve Smith hasn’t seen single coverage since 2005, when he was awarded the triple crown. That just might be the remedy to get Jake back on track.
But I don’t buy it because the Panthers usually only run 2 receiver wide sets… rarely use a slot receiver, and TEs only in the redzone or 3rd a longs. So you can single cover Moose, double Smitty and still keep another safety in the box… This lack of creativity in the passing game is what Panther fans are screaming about.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“I’m no longer an asset to this team,” -Steve Smith after the Tampa game
This is exactly why i think we should be doubling up on him, I’m thinking that after this comment Fox and Delomme are going to try everything they can do to get him going again, which could lead to some forced throws to him and help out the Bills.
"Did you feel you did well against Lindland?" "
Hell no.. I wanted to break the law"
---Rampage
by TearsofaClown on Oct 25, 2009 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not sure if anyone caught the NFC Play book when they reviewed the Bills Panthers match up. They showed the Bills stacking the box with 9 players, because of poor run D by the safeties the Bills gave up a lot of yardage. With Whitner, and Scott still out, I don’t see how we can even contain their backs who are playing really well, and considering their OLine as well. Either way, Let’s go Buffalo!!!
by Hassanali181 on Oct 24, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carolina 300+ yards on the ground?
They are coming off the 2nd most yards in a game in franchise history.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Oct 24, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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