Bills/Dolphins: Final Predictions with The Phinsider
by Brian Galliford on Oct 3, 2009 12:30 PM EDT
in Buffalo Bills News
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PrintYou know the drill - each Saturday, we sit down with the blogger of the Buffalo Bills' weekly opposition to make final predictions on the eve of game day. I'm not particularly enthused to report that through three weeks, I'm a clean 3-0 picking Bills games (though I was admittedly far too harsh on them in my Week 1 prediction, and perhaps a bit too generous in Week 3).
Matty I from The Phinsider, SB Nation's Miami Dolphins blog, joins us this afternoon to make his final prediction on tommorrow's Bills/Dolphins matchup. Mine is after the jump as well, and yours are welcome in the comments section.
Matty I's prediction? Right here.
Though I'm only 1-2 picking Dolphin games this year, I do have a strong feeling about this one on Sunday. In case you didn't know, I'm far from a "Chad Henne blind follower." I have been and will be very critical of him. But I just have a feeling that the Dolphins are going to open up the offense on Sunday against a depleted Buffalo secondary and let Henne air it out far more than some might think. The Dolphins will obviously have to protect Henne - but I think the offensive line is coming along well enough to do so.
Defensively, the Dolphins have to be more aggressive and generate a more consistent pass rush. If the Dolphins let Trent Edwards stand back in the pocket all day, he will beat you. He has weapons on the outside and we know the Dolphins have a tendency of giving up big plays. As pass rush will take some pressure off of the secondary. Oh - and my bold prediction - Sean Smith gets his first career interception on Sunday.
Dolphins win 20-16.
Y'all will probably rip me a new one - I'd deserve it, because I feel dirty putting my own prediction on the official record. As long as y'all know how unclean this makes me feel, I'm comfortable with the prediction - and clearly extremely hopeful that I'm wrong.
I don't like the way Buffalo matches up with Miami, particularly given their grievous injury concerns. Even with Joey Porter possibly sidelined - and my gut tells me that that [insert expletive] will find a way to play - Miami's big, physical, athletic front seven will cause big problems for a Bills offensive line that's banged up at tackle and extremely inexperienced.
But I'm not particularly concerned about Buffalo's defensive injuries in the secondary, because we've got good depth there. Our defensive line is playing well, and I expect the focus to be containing the run in order to make Chad Henne beat us over the top. He might do it, but it's a longer shot for the Dolphins than letting Ronnie Brown run wild.
I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. Really, this is a pick'em game in my mind. Whenever I get to that point, I take either the home team or the more desperate team. Miami is both of those this week. Dolphins 22, Bills 17
Feel free to declare your allegiance to another blog if you wish. Or just make your own prediction, prove me wrong, and brag incessantly when you do so. I'd deserve it.
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Your prediction is not
out of line. It makes sense. Miami is not a bad team. On the other hand. I’ve maintained that Buffalo has been a better team than the 7-9 seasons and our current record.
I’m going with a break out game for Owens and Evans. 100 yards or close for each. Miami will score late to make it respectable.
Bills 33-23.
While Buffalo is capable of multiple big plays again in all 3 facets of the game, Miami isn’t. I see Buffalo racking up a few field goals here and there and then beginning break things open.
I see TO getting a few bubble screens reverses, very, very quick slants. Our defense is very dependable. They give up yards but they keep people from scoring touchdowns.
I think beyond Buffalo’s 40 yard line, the Bills will throw deep on 3rd downs if it is not less than 4. The reasoning being that if you are going to punt eventually, you might as well go deep on a “QB punt” and give your play makers a shot.
That said, I traded TO away for Cotchery of the Jets. I am going to confession this evening. It is a grave sin.
That’s a good fantasy move.
Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged
by Dyl on Oct 3, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a really bad feeling about this game too.
Sure we get Lynch back, but how’s his conditioning? I think he’ll be less of a factor than we’re all hoping. After watching that OL get manhandled by the Saints front 7 last week, I have even less confidence with them facing Miami’s front 7.
I think the Bills can win this game if they can move the ball through the air. If they can’t both facets may be shut down and then it’s 3-and-out and punting on 4th and 1 in dubious fashion.
This is the week to bring the slants and crossing patterns onto the field. Play lights out.
Without a passing game, Miami wins 19 – 7
With a passing game, Buffalo wins 27-20
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 3, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions
Probably because it will have some impact on time of possession and field position, thereby altering Miami’s offense and their opportunities.
Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged
by Dyl on Oct 3, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Right.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 3, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus, I only gave Miami 1 more point if they lose the game.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 3, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Tough game for both teams..
I think that for the Bills to score 20 points,they are going to need special teams or defensive help,but I’m going to billieve they can do that..But not win the game..
24-20 Miami..
O Line is everything in a game..We’re going to get some wild rushes in Trent’s Face..Might even see Fitzy in the 4th quarter if the rush is hard enough to knock Trent out of the game..
by FanFromThe80s on Oct 3, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions
The bills must win this game
and they know it.
17-14 Buffalo
T.O Touchdown and a fresh legs Beast TD
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-
If we lose to Miami, we would be 0-2 in the division with the best team in the AFC yet to come
Stick a fork in the Bills because they will be done. That said, I think AVP will be ready with a better game plan for this game. Lynch will be motivated to prove how much the Bills have missed him and will do his best AP impression and run over the Fins. I am not putting much hope in Edwards going deep and if he does in TO actually catching the ball (I am about one more easily dropped TD pass from calling him Stonehands). Look for the Bills to control the clock, help keep the D fresh, and protect Edwards with the run game. Fewell could win this game for us by calling another good game and forcing Henne into making mistakes.
Bills 24 Fins 13
Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes
Bills 23-21
bank is closed on saturday……so I’ll take it on monday
"In every adversity there lies the seed of an equivalent advantage. In every defeat is a lesson showing you how to win the victory next time." (Robert Collier)
by norcaliangelsfan on Oct 3, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions
Bills 31-17
Defense steps up again and the offense comes alive late, though they struggle again early on. Marshawn gets a goal line TD and Edwards connects on 1 deep ball to Evans. Fred Jackson is the man again.
"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"
Dolphins 17, Bills 6
I really want the Bills to destroy them. I really do.
It’s just that I don’t know how AVP can scheme for this game considering he doesn’t know how his offensive line will hold up against an all out blitz. He can’t send out Nelson on routes because he’ll need a TE for blocking help. He’ll have to game plan on the fly. Nothing in the past three games has led me to believe that the Bills are effective (or have even learned a tiny bit) at picking up a 3-4 blitz. I’m afraid we’ll see a lot of Edwards two-step drop backs, passes before T.O. looks back at the ball or Edwards rolling out and throwing the ball away. The only chance we have is if Henne just flat out hands us the game. I’m not saying that couldn’t happen, I’m just saying that I doubt Sparano will allow that to happen.
The game comes down to which team is more violent and who wants it more. As we’ve come to know, the Bills run a Tampa 2 and a no-huddle offense predicated on speed and quickness… also known as lighter bodies, of which are more prone to injury. It’ll be hot and humid. Rookies starting all over the place. Remember that the Bills should be 2-1, but the Dolphins very easily could be 3-0. They’ve played very good teams.
Love it
Bills shock everyone, including themselves by coming up with 2 early TDs. Devastating Miami offensively, Buffalo’s attack finally comes alive with intensity.
54-24 Bills, yup same score they hammered the Chiefs with last season. Freddy and Marshawn combine for over 250 yards.
The streets of Buffalo and TO come alive with playoff talk again, while visions of Superbowls dance in our heads…
by LosBillesdeBuffalo on Oct 3, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions
I hope we go out and rebound ourselves from last week’s dreadful offensive performance, but again I’ve learned with Dick Jauron-coached football teams never to expect much, particularly when the term ‘adjusting on the fly’ isn’t known by his coaching staff. I think we’re a better football team, when we’re healthy, but since we aren’t, I’m picking the Phins, too.
However, that is only, if our O-line is as pathetic as I expect it to be with Trent getting no time to sit back in the pocket like last week (where all blamed Trent, although the line should have been blamed at least as much). If we somehow manage to provide Trent pass-protection, I think he’ll the Dolphins defense apart, but that’s only if he receives pass-protection.
by BillsfanfromDenmark on Oct 3, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions
Bills 16-13. Just a gut, I suppose….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Yes!
This game is huge and we have to pull out a win. Doesn’t matter if that means TE throws for 300+ yards or Lynch and Jackson gain 200+ or the defense crushes the wildcat and Lindell wins it for us…
I’ve been a silent observer of this blog, but as Kurupt is optimistic realistic, and thinks we can win, then it will happen!!! Kelsay forces a turnover, Bills 17 Miami 13
9-7 Bills here. think this one might put us to sleep with that long boring "wild"cat I witnessed against Indy, but I think we pull it out.GO BILLS!
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Oct 3, 2009 2:39 PM EDT reply actions
I’m looked at the schedule again and we still look like a 8-8 this one is a loss I hope I’m wrong 24-20 phins I feel dirty
Rrrroarrrr, rrroarrr like a dungeon dragon-Busta Ryhmes
I’m still for 10 wins. call me a fool. come on bye week! We need some luck and some players back
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Oct 3, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions
I believe!
Why so much negativity around here? Think happy thoughts!
The OL is a definite cause for concern, but AVP and the crew know that it’s a problem and they’ll work around it. We’re going to be up-tempo and the no-huddle will keep Miami on its heels. Our skill players are going to be hungry to come back after laying an egg last week. Miami’s offense is nowhere near as good as NE’s or NO’s. The wildcat is overrated. Only works if it catches you by surprise, and we have only ourselves to blame if we’re surprised by it. Just play the run and let Henne (or whoever takes the snap) try and beat us. And even though Miami is desperate . . . SO ARE WE!
We win!
Don’t know the score, but Maybin gets his first sack.
It’s difficult to explain how bad I think Henne and Ginn are. I think Buffalo mostly shuts down that Miami running attack and the Dolphins struggle on O big time.
I’ll take the Bills 20-6 in an ugly game where the offense doesn’t play well, but manages to put a few points on the board with the help of defense and special teams.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
A Crossroads Game
However it comes out, this is the most crucial game on the Bills’ schedule this year. This is their first encounter with a team that is closely matched with them, which they should be able to beat if they are as strong as they keep telling us they are. If they lose, we are on our way to a downward slide and most likely a new coaching staff. If they win and use the momentum to beat Cleveland the following week then the season may still hold real possibilities.
In short, this is the big test of what kind of team we really have. We are at the crossroads.
Bills 16, Miami 7
Evans gets a long bomb to set up a short yardage TD for the Beast. TO still wonders if he will ever get another TD or the ball… Please don’t play Joey!
They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills
I Think
everybody is underestimating the ineptness of Chad Henne. Miami will run well on Buffalo, but it won’t amount to TDs as Buffalo plays very good red zone defense. Miami doesn’t particularly play two deep safeties so there’s going to be a lot of throws to Lee and TO. Let’s hope Trent has taken his new nickname Captain Checkdown to heart.
Buffalo 27
Miami 13
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
"If I had to do it all over again, I'd do it all over again."
You might be overestimating the ineptitude. He’s played a half of NFL football, who knows how he’ll play after a week of preparation…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Oct 3, 2009 11:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we get mad at DJ
cuz it seems as though he doesnt believe in this team. are we as a fan base allowed to not believe also? i for one will not ever think the bills will ever lose any match! even if the bills were playing all backups against a team that was 19-0 id still take the bills for the win. you know why? CUZ I BILLIEVE!!
BILLS – 34
do’hphins – 0
Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones
by silverstreak3k on Oct 3, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Bills 35 MIami 13
Edwards learns his WRs are stellar!
"Next time I get the opportunity I am going to hold on and make a better decision." ~ Leodis McKelvin. (Can't ask for anythitng more than that)
just don’t know how Edwards survives this game. hope I’m wrong. Fish 28 Bills 9
most of my posts get deleted :(
Glad this post has not been deleted....so you can eat some crow on Monday :-)
Edwards will survive if he handles it off to FredEx and Beast Mode a lot and are playing with the lead. If we are forced to play from behind…..call an ambulance!!!!
Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes
BILLS 35, FISH 20 Brian......... you are dead to me...............
Seriously Brian, we are playing against a terrible team with a bad QB. How could you pick us to lose? We easily could be 3-0.
I am an Bills eternal optimist. Its gotta happen sometime.
We WILL win Sunday, crush the Browns at home(driving up from Nashvegas again to see the game), take out Sanchez on the road, have a party in Carolina, and then with the momentum, hammer the Texans at home, rolling into our bye week at 6-2.
BILL-IEVE!!!! DRINK THE COOL-AID.
Its all we can do folks.
"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Oct 3, 2009 8:14 PM EDT reply actions
Whether I’m dead to you or not, you need to realize that the Dolphins aren’t close to being “terrible.”
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Oct 3, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
You can parse words all you want,
but it doesn’t change the fact that given the injuries the Fins have sustained, they are not a good team. They lost their starting QB and their best defensive player may not even play for Pete sake. If we can’t beat the Fins in their current state, who can we beat?
Poor ball security leads to very painful outcomes
Bills 13 - 10
Unfortunately I didn’t see the game last week because I had a lost in my family. I hope this week I could see a win.
Bills 23 Phish 19
A lot of people are declaring this a “must-win” game. I’d like to modify that a little bit: it’s a “must-win—-but winnable—-game.” Lots of games are must-wins, but frankly, the Bills really have no chance winning them (think San Diego at home a few years ago, when LT was in his prime, or in Jacksonville 2 years ago). Even though we needed those ones, no Bills fan in their right mind could honestly think we would win those games.
We need this one now, but fortunately, I see it as winnable. Unfortunately, the Bills have fallen on their face the last 10 or so years against such teams (think the losses to the Steelers JV team, or more recently Cleveland and San Fran at home last year). This truly is a crossroads game, because if the Bills have any shot to make the playoffs, gotta win these ones. As disappointed as we were with the NE and NO games, those both were probably chalked up as losses when the season began, so we have to put them behind us and focus on this one.
I don’t see the O-line injuries as devastating because the interior of the line (now healthy) was the strong part of our line anyway….our secondary is deep, so overall the injuries will not be a huge factor in this game.
Bills teams in the past would drop this game, and while I COULD see that happening, I think this team will turn a corner and win this one…Lee always burns the Dolphins, and I expect Lynch to score one on the ground…GO BILLS!
The Bills better win this game if they want to have any shot of a winning record or a playoff trip. Playoff teams win the games they are supposed to win. Is this is a game the Bills are supposed to win? I don’t know about supposed to win but they certainly can win. If they want to be taken seriously they need a W in South Florida. I picked the Bills to win but I don’t care about the score. If I had to guess I would say 20-10 or something low like that.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
Dolphins Win 13 - 3
And we welcome Ryan Fitzpatrick as our new starting quarterback after Trent Edwards gets blindsided by a man that Jonathan Scott was supposed to block.
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